Okay, like what the actual f wtf of 4x over here, because we've got a 4x disaster that we've got to talk about, and this is just trying to be as real as possible. Okay, i am looking for the good news because i want to be in this market and then i want to go on vacation. I've been sitting here, reading the doomberg terminal too much and i'm tired of it. Okay, but here's what's going on tomorrow, okay! Well, actually, today, i can't even get my day straight because it's a freaking disaster and we're going to talk about the good news as well, where we can find it and, of course, if you want to join me in my morning, live streams.

Remember you get lifetime access to my programs on building your wealth and the course member live streams via the programs, i'll link it down below, of course, the live streams as long as i decided to do them, which i have no plans to stop my course. Member live streams, link down below okay, look, here's the thing a couple movers this morning you got upstart momentum moving after a five percent buyback and an earnings beat is sending the stock up 31, but be careful with upstart that one particular star stock is a momentum Mover institutions buy this thing without even knowing what the he double hockey sticks. The company does so keep an eye on that. That's not to say you can't make money riding the wave, but just know when that wave starts crashing.

You wan na jump. Okay, just keep that in mind about upstart. It is one of the biggest momentum movers. Just look at the chart.

Look at the day chart over the last year. Okay, let's see exactly what i mean: airbnb absolutely killed it yesterday, because people are going out there doing what spending more money like freaking, crazy stocks, barely up two and a half percent right now ridiculous! Now, what's the four-fold disaster? Well, let's talk about that. First four-folded disaster is nato just announced that there is no evidence of a troop withdrawal uh from uh the the uh ukrainian border uh, and if anything, there is evidence of a troop build up. Okay, that is not what we want to hear.

Yesterday, markets rallied and oil fell on the idea that things were getting better along the border, but now secretary of state blinken endorses these comments from nato saying yeah we're just not seeing it yesterday. I thought this was just cnn click bait saying: oh well, we haven't seen proof yet you know i'm like come on. Would you give him a freaking chance? But today now nato and the u.s are like what's going on here and of course, russia is like hey joe with the hysteria. Okay, now keep in mind.

They only did agree to a partial withdrawal, and you know putin's not going to give up until he gets exactly what he wants, especially since this withdrawal remember how putin authorized this withdrawal, the foreign minister said: hey we completed uh some exercises along the border with certain Troops we should pull these troops back because we don't really need them to be in this particular hinterland and uh. What's putin's reply just to show you how enthusiastic he is about pulling back the troops? His reply to that is alright. Now i don't know what the russian word for that is, but it doesn't really matter. The demeanor was the same that this little little mini pullback in my opinion, has not changed.

Anything now is russia actually going to invade ukraine. We have no idea, but what we do know is that btc is solidly sitting above that 42 line, which is critical to keep us away from that 37 line and remember to check out ftx.us via the link in the description down below to get up to ten Dollars in totally free crypto and also have an epic trading platform, they use tradingview. The tools are insanely amazing, on trading views check those out uh linked down below okay, so the problem number one okay is: is this russian issue? This is part one of the four folded disaster. Now this disaster is helping lead oil prices to move up again the inverse direction that we saw yesterday right now, we've got brent crude sitting at 2.26 percent up at 95.

Once we get over 100 recession, alarm bells start ticking off again, you hit over a hundred we've, never gone from over a hundred oil to under 100 without a recession. Uh not many examples, but it is one to pay attention to as well. 100 is definitely a psychological threshold and if there is an invasion which would be absolutely terrible for the loss of life uh in ukraine and and for for russian military folk uh, then then we would expect this to potentially go to 120 130 and be a complete Disaster add more inflationary pressures, it'd be bad now, the market's not really pricing in that with certainty, there's going to be an invasion which is good but there's definitely an elevated risk. Okay, now this by the way is causing some distortions in the bond market see treasury yields should be up today.

They should be rising because of all the other things that are happening today, which we'll talk about in a moment, but specifically retail sales, which we'll talk about in a moment. Treasury yields should be way up today, but what are yields doing folks they're all down? Why are they all down? Why is the bond market so distorted right now, it's very very simple: when people fear war, they buy what they deem to be risk-free assets and united states bonds, for example, are risk-free assets, so this could be causing the whole russia drama situation could be creating some Distortions in the bond market, leading to this flight to safety in the bond market leading actually yields to come down because remember more people buy prices. Higher yield is lower, so you see yields come down. Ordinarily, with a retail beat like this.

You'd probably see the tenure. Go to like 2.1 or something like that talk about retail in a moment! That's another one of the wtfs okay. But first we got to talk about the second wtf and that's this inflation madness. Okay! Listen to some of this madness, all right! So home builder confidence.

Just had uh the biggest well, i mean, i shouldn't say biggest drop, but they just had a big drop for the second month in a row. The national association of home builders, chairperson, says that costs are rising, price pricing is rising, pricing out prospective buyers and builders are having to wait months for products like cabinets and and doors and whatever, and they say that this problem in the construction industry is getting worse. Not better, they say the cost to build a home are up 21 year-over-year lumber went up 10 in just the last two weeks. It's insane it's almost at last summer's high, which is nuts builder confidence, is, is down particularly because of of again these supply issues.

But it's still higher, it's still on the optimistic side, and why is it still on the optimistic side of the confidence question? Well, because pricing is high, that is like their sales prices are high. Their ability to make the money from consumers is high, but there's a limit to how high this pricing power will go, especially with interest rates having just gone from about a low of 3.6 just three months ago or more like eight weeks ago. Honestly, to close to four percent right now, anyway, uh on the same note of inflation, wingstop mentioned uh, shout out to uh, texas, james and the course by the way. Thank you.

Man appreciate you uh one of the og course members here wing stop uh had their chicken prices go up 27.5, all of their costs together, including employee costs, training, uh and incentive costs. All of these things together like covet, leave and all that all those costs together increased costs at the company by 17, and that was only offset by some increases in prices and, in other words, their margins are going to get hit hard and or just got hit. Because they just reported earnings and they're working to to raise prices more so they can offset this, but there's a question: how much can you really raise prices and still be competitive? So far, most companies have complained that they have pricing power, but listen to this. This was an interesting one, which i actually see a little bit of good news in the following two, but it's it's kind of like bad news with uh like a little bit of pinch, assault of good news, it's kind of weird, listen to this one heineken heineken, Who remembers that from uh blue velvet heineken? No, i'm not going to say the quote, but he likes blue velvet or pap's blue ribbon better.

But anyway, some of y'all will remember that scene. Anyway, heidi kit warned of the worst inflation in a decade which i mean should be duh. It's like worst inflation in 40 years, but anyway uh and they say that prices are going up so much that consumers may have to cut back on beer. I don't think so, but okay, uh, kraft, heinz uh says that their high costs uh or their costs are so high because of higher food commodity costs like dairy and input costs that they can't keep up with how much they have to raise prices because their costs Keep going up now, some of these can be seen as good, because it's like okay good.

Maybe then people will stop buying as much stuff but now you're talking about beer and like cheese, which i don't think make a good combo, but but anyway, uh. That's crazy because they're struggling to raise prices and yet their costs are going up so much. You know if that's happening here. It's happening at uh, all the other industries i mean even advanced auto parts.

Yesterday was complaining about how much they had to raise prices and then how they were behind the curve on raising prices. It's crazy, the inflationary pressures just aren't aren't ending. There are some pinches of hope that maybe people spend less money because of all this inflation, but just wait until we get to the retail sales part all right. This is another one of the wtf's uh breville, which is a uh, a coffee machine.

Many, i don't know much about them, but they do like coffee machines and stuff like coffee related products. They said they see inflation lasting through through the second half of 2022, so things actually aren't getting better. If anything's getting worse, which is the same thing, we saw as the homebuilders said anyway, the the only good news that we got when it came to inflation. Yesterday, beyond the little salts i gave you here was yesterday, china said that inflation came in lower than expected.

It was like 9.1 percent instead of 9.5 percent and and and the chinese stock market was rallying over this, like yay inflation's inflecting down, but it was kind of ludicrous because if you think about it, it's still 9.1, i mean the inflection down was cheered. But then again, china's economy is slowing. Think about this. China's economy is slowing down, they're, stimulating the economy.

Our economy is booming, as many people say we are going to zoom in okay, everybody says we're going to the moon and unfortunately the writing on the wall is. Is not hitting people yet that the more people spend money in america and in the west, the worse, it is for inflation and the more aggressive the fed has to get which they are so far behind the curve. At this point i mean - hopefully, hopefully it just ends up being transitory, but you know i used to be in camp transitory. I i had to leave man that that camp that camp's getting smaller and smaller by the day anyway bank of england, uh uh, ended up uh, refusing to stimulate the economy more uh.

As expected, they were expected to buy more bonds. They did not. They. They stuck with their bond buying, i'm surprised, they're, even still, buying bonds.

Then we have the bank of canada releasing information that inflation in canada hit 5.1 percent year over year, more than the 4.8 percent forecast the highest since 1991.. All this by the way comes after the ppi print from yesterday in america, where we were expecting month-over-month producer inflation to be a half of one percent, and it came in at one percent, which is twice expectations. That's a 12 annualized inflation rate. I look.

People call me, mr dr fudd, i'm just like i'm just reading the freaking news. Okay, all right, i sit all day long and i do research. This is why sometimes i say, maybe i'm spending too much time in the doomberg terminal. Maybe i should spend more time trading crypto on on ftx, via the link down below or or maybe i should spend more time making sure i finally get my the path to wealth course, uh finish, which i keep adding content to um but uh, but instead uh, Which which i will be finishing, but instead i've got my head stuck in in this because there's so much going on here.

So what's another f, because we've got a lot of them. Well, everything that looks in the mirror is killing it. Retail sales came in insanely good. Today they came in at 3.8.

The expectation was a one and a half percent decline for january. This means people spent way more money than expected 13 out of 15 sec sectors. I had had a jump in retail sales, including furniture and autos autos jumped over five percent. People were spending money like absolutely crazy.

I still don't know where they're getting all this money from it's insane. It's just a higher savings or whatever, but people are spending money. Like crazy and it's pushing up inflation, not down, you know kathy wood's, trying to tell everyone that oh, the economy's slowing consumers are losing purchasing power. I don't see it kathy you're wrong.

The retail sales data says you're wrong. Ppi says you're wrong. The last cpi report, which came up before your last video, told us that real wages were actually positive, not negative, as you said, because on a month to month they were growing 8.8 percent. I love you kathy, but come on it's it's not getting better.

Yet we still have not seen the inflection point down. I want to see the inflection point down, because i want to buy freaking stocks and i want the fed to you term, but anyway, uh. Look at look at trade desk, for example, okay, triple freaking beat on trade desk triple beat on trade death earnings, they raised guidance, they beat on bottom line. They beat on top line, look at their stock today, folks down 10.7.

We were talking about this in the course member live stream at market open this morning. We're like what the he double hockey six is going on here and, of course, we found you know it all has to do with with a lot of it has to do with shopify. What's going on at shopify, they reduce guide shopify is like yeah. Things are going to slow down in the second half, but so so this is an interesting conundrum that we're in because - and this is another one of the wtfs i mean shopify's down - was 18 here.

Okay, so what's this wtf, because now it's like wait, a minute kevin you're complaining about people spending money like crazy, but you just said sales are going to slow, which one is it are you? Are you flip-flopping again wait? Where is it you flip-flopper? No? No! I am frustrated, i am frustrated about the problems we face. Look at this folks. Look at this right now, let's, let's pretend okay, because i'm going to go forward. Let's pretend today is april, based on all the data that we're receiving right now, we're going to be in april.

Looking back and we're gon na see, uh insanely, high uh inflation and spending. Okay, inflation and spending can be really really high and then we're gon na. Be in april looking forward to probably spending going down, but inflation probably still being high because of the lag time so you're literally looking back at a booming economy, that's creating a lot of inflation. You're probably going to be looking forward to more inflation, because companies are trying to get their margins back like craft and heineken and advanced, auto parts and starbucks and panda express and all the other companies.

I can think of off the top of my head, like ralph lauren under armour. I don't know all of them the chip makers, everyone everyone's raising prices right, so you're still looking forward to these inflationary pressures, but now there's fear about that. In the second half of the year, we're actually gon na have a slowdown, and then this is where the big fear is that the fed is going to side with the inflation problem here and get angry about inflation. At the same time as spending is going down, which is that that really nasty word that nobody shall speak, but i will write on screen right here: yeah, okay, so look! These are lots of wtf's, uh and and again i wan na - be mr transitory.

Here we're gon na pull up the yield curve, really quick. I wan na be mr transitory here, but the data is just not corroborating that right now so uh in terms of the yield curve, the yield curve is actually up a little bit from the inversion state. We went down to a low of point, a point 30 or 38 basis points. I should say we're at about 48 point uh or 47.4 right now, which is up a little bit.

Part of this is very likely because of the distortions of uh. Again, the uh uh, the russia fear, which does lead to a little bit of an increased flight to safety again like we talked about earlier in the video, but anyway, look to me. This is just lots of wtf, especially after the nice green day that we had yesterday uh and - and it's just shocking, because this you know five weeks ago i talked about this - i talked about how look it's not a matter of what q4 does it doesn't we Talked about this in the course member streams we talked about this, you know we look at the ten cues in the course member streams, we look at the transcripts and the course member streams. We talk about this kind of stuff, but we also talked about this particular part on the channel that it's not just q4, that matters it's the forecast and shopify got reamed because of their forecast.

Their forecast is destroying trade desk down 10 percent on a triple beat. It's destroying a firm down another four point: seven: five percent: it's destroying uh etsy over here uh, i i you know cloudflare's done better. I mean it's off of like the 76 low it was. It's actually had a very good return if you think about it, for if you bought that that super low level uh but uh, there's still pain ahead of us now, some things are moving.

We talked at the beginning of the video about upstart, that's fine, uh and uh, and corsair did very well as well, but uh, really red day, uh airbnb. Finally, up three percent, but still ugh. Look at the look at the indices. We got here qqq down about 1.23 spy right now is down about 0.66.

Look at this bounce by the way in the pre-market right off the 38.2 fibonacci. We should start rubber banding around the 38.2 fibonacci here, which is four. If you want to write it down, it's uh 443.56 and here i'll zoom out and you can - you could look at where my fibonacci is placed. My zero is at 420 57 and my hundreds at 480.75, which might be a teeny little bit high there.

But it's it's been pretty accurate so far anyway, and if you don't understand what any of that is, you're welcome to check out the courses on building your wealth link down below, especially the real estate ones. Too. Remember: uh. Their programs are making youtube videos real estate sales, you know real estate, investing property management and and of course, stocks and uh - and you know some lectures are being added as well for market cycles.

Again, i was not expecting to have to add a section on market cycles this soon, but lots of things in progress, so good new content coming. That's one of the neat things about the programs. Is i'm always adding content and keeping these updated and refreshed so anyway check that out, link down below and check out ftx as well? Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you in the next one goodbye.