Well, the CPI report was kind of crazy this morning now. I'll play back my reaction in just a moment. But a few important things that you need to know before we go into it first: I Realized that I made a mistake when I talked about used vehicles. The Consumer Price Index measures used vehicle prices from the consumer's point of view, but the Manheim Used Vehicle Index report actually uses auction prices, so that's what dealers are paying.

That would show up in things like the Producer Price Index report, right? And one of the things we're seeing is that the costs of companies are rising or have risen, but consumers aren't necessarily paying more. That means company margins are taking it in the rear. You know, kind of sucks taking the L over there at the company level, but the consumers aren't necessarily paying more. Maybe thereby reiterating why we saw a 1.9 month over month negative read for used cars in the CPI report.

That was somewhat unsurprising though. or someone surprising though we thought we would see some kind of pull forward and see some form of increased consumer prices, but we didn't see that yet. Now it's possible there's also a lag and that maybe in the next few months we'll actually start seeing some consumer prices start ticking up again. Core: Services Super Core X Housing did come in pretty decently to you know, an annualized level of about 3.2 percent, which isn't terrible, but some of the other pieces of the report definitely definitely reiterate that uh oh, some parts of service inflation could end up being sticky and I think you'll see that as we go through this together here.

and one of the issues that come out of sticky inflation is you're probably going to see the bond market stay stable higher for longer and this is really the Federal Reserve Way of suggesting hey, look, Financial conditions are going to be tighter for longer and it's going to take more time to get that sticky inflation out. With our course members this morning and our course member live stream, we really agreed and believed that it's probably going to be until at least the second half of the year before we're really on the coastis clear Road where we really start getting substantial disinflation. So let's take a look at my reaction here. Do realize that this does hit real estate given that the 10-year treasury right now sitting at 3.76 is, uh, pretty well up there.

and uh, let's take a look at some of my reaction and some of the details of it which I think are very important. remember what I said about used cars and uh how I had initially uh, misinterpreted that and I want to be very clear about that up front? I'm not perfect, but I do my best. So anyway, let's take a listen in here and remember today is Valentine's Day So take advantage of the flash sale linked down below and in terms of Market positioning, it is worth noting that I think the market went into this report a very bearishly hedged and positioned so it wouldn't surprise me to see some short covering. But do keep in mind any kind of hire for longer talk from the FED is probably going to lead to some sort of resistance, some form of downward pressure at least in stocks.

although I think that could all part be part of the longer Nike Swoosh recovery. Where this is just kind of like, all right, it's like it's it's getting slightly better, but we still have problems. we still have work to do. It's going to take longer, so we really just have to be patient as we go through this process.

But as I've said, I'm pretty I'm pretty well long positioned with uh with some cash and then of course I'll uh, I'll do my best to trade in the meantime with a smaller part of my portfolio like you know, less than a fraction of a percent of my portfolio where we get to do some fun trades. and I send alerts for all of those in the stocks and site course link down below. All right. All right.

10 seconds there folks. 10 seconds. Here we go. Here comes the CP light and the numbers are not out yet.

Okay, 0.5 match match high on the year over year we came in at 6.4 That's bearish. A core year over year came in at 5.6 We got a match on CPI month over month, match on core, month over month. So we got 0.5 0.4 Year over year came in a little hot 6.4 and year-over-year core coming in at five. A point a six 6.4 is a little bit hawkish unfortunately.

JP Morgan Told us that we could expect the S P 500 to go down. Uh, about uh, three quarters to to 1.5 percent. Apparel: Dude, apparel's been getting cut like crazy. Apparel at Point Eight percent.

This is bizarre. How did used vehicles go negative here? This is very weird. Uh Medical Care Commodities up 1.1 percent. Uh, all items less.

Uh. Food and energy up Five point. Uh, six percent. Uh, for the 12 month bot on the month over month you're looking at point four percent.

That's what we saw. Uh, that is quite interesting. Food: Uh, the food Index: see four of the major six food groups increased month over month. Let's see here: the index for Uh Meats Poultry, fish eggs increase point seven percent.

That's quite a lot. Eggs Rose Eight Point: Five percent. Yeah, that's definitely a lot. Uh, okay.

food. I Don't know how much we really care about index for food away from home Rose 8.2 percent over last year. Uh, all items less food and energy. Let's see here among the other indices that Rose in January was the index for Motor Vehicle Insurance which increased 1.4 percent month over month.

That's not great seeing a lot of people potentially reduce. uh, their car insurance. uh by basically just canceling it to save money which is scary. Housing contributed the most to the monthly increase.

Shelter accounted for about half of the gain. Uh, yep, that's thanks to the new weighting as well the household furnishings and operations. Rose 0.3 percent in January I'm actually surprised by that I'm more surprised by that than I am. Uh, that we have a flash sale of 69 off for the programs I'm building your wealth link down below or the experiences build your wealth with stocks, psychology and money.

uh, the Elite Hustlers course which has custom live streams or get lifetime access to any of the programs on Building Wealth But consider, this household is now exposed to 44.4 of the index. that's nearly half. Uh, and uh, that came in at point. Seven percent.

that's pretty hot, so no disinflation in housing. Yet when we get disinflation here, you're going to see these numbers plummet. But this is really interesting here. Uh, to see.

Uh, uh, you've got housing furnishes, right? Or Furnishings rising and apparel That surprises me. A lot of folks were expecting. Medical Care Services Here to Rise: You actually had a fall here in medical care services. And let's get the individual charts as well.

It looks like no meaningful takedown according to what Wall Street is looking here looking for here. No meaningful takedown They say in Core: Services excluding shelter, that's not great. It's really showing that you still have a sticky core Services a set of inflation. We're obviously waiting for that to decline, but we're not seeing it yet.

Uh, let's see here. I Mean, of course we did move down in general, but it's just not moving down quickly, right? It's not like super bullish over here. Let's start at the end of the detailed tables. here.

If we start at the end of the tables, we can really see where these core services are moving. So uh, the last column you're going to see is the month over month change between December and January. So if we go over here, what do we have? we have Financial Services Maybe tax season over here. A little volatile coming in at 2.5 but that only has a 0.17 weight.

Personal services? That's not good. Point: Eight percent over here. still showing a move up here in apparel Services Laundry funeral expenses. We want to see these start disinflating here.

These are the sectors that are going to get driven up by wages, right? Personal Care services up 0.2 percent You have, uh, delivery services up 1.5 percent. This? it's still too much. Um, it's not very bullish. Uh, in my opinion.

This is despite the fact that indices actually positive right now, which is a little bit of a surprise. But education, maybe just because it's it is still trending down. It's just slowing. It's trending down very slowly, right? So it's not a bad report.

It's just sort of a neutral report. Yeah, we're trending down, but very, very slow. You're still sticky over here on core Services Pet Services Up one percent uh, photography and uh, processing here. Or 2.7 percent? That's sticky High Recreation Service is 0.7 I mean 0.7 Remember 0.7 read is like eight point four percent annual inflation? That's a lot annualized inflation.

airfares. Oh, let's go good. You're starting to potentially see that price War Come in. Uh, this is something that United Airlines and Spirit have actually been talking about.

United Airlines and Spirit have both been talking about this idea that, hey, look if if, uh, our competition starts cutting prices, we're ready to fight. We're ready to reduce prices as well. and it looks like you're starting to see some of that show up over here in. CPI Okay, that's good to know.

So what else do we have here? You've got? Uh, let's see: Motor Vehicles You've got 1.2 percent on Motor Vehicle Fees Motor Vehicle Insurance 1.4 Public Transportation down 1.8 but uh, car and truck rental up three percent. That's a lot for a month over month. Read over here. these are these are huge numbers, right? Uh, so still getting a push over here.

Transportation service is point nine percent. Still very, very hot Medical Care Services Thankfully, coming down point seven percent, that's a good thing. Uh, that's despite the fact that hospital related services are up point seven percent. These are pretty bearish numbers here on some of these service numbers.

Water, sewer, trash collection of 0.9 Shelter A point seven percent over here. Yikes. Uh, your services less energy? Still point five percent. so you're still seeing that hotness over here.

Uh, but the market almost suggesting this is this is pretty aligned with what they were expecting. NASDAQ Pretty much flat right now. Not getting a lot of movement here. You've got alcoholic beverages up 0.6 It's a lot.

Tobacco Point: Seven percent. Uh. smartphones. Smartphones down 1.1 So you're seeing that sort of goods disinflation.

Sporting Goods Oh well. sporty. Goods At point five percent. uh, photography equipment's down.

Toys down 1.2 percent. Two percent for hobbies. Uh, so this is where you would expect to see some of the disinflation, right? I'm surprised that used cars are down here since the used Vehicle index actually showed up. so that's uh, that's definitely a surprise.

Excuse me there for a moment. Apparel: How is apparel? Rising point Eight percent. Especially men's suits, outer closing and underwear outer closing and underwear up up 5.5 It's going on. Uh, you've got bond yields pretty stable though the 10 years down about four basis points sitting at about 3.68 Pretty stable.

High there for Real Estate You know? I I'd say this is a pretty mixed report. You have, uh you? you? really? What you have is you have a report that's saying, look, inflation is trending down? Uh, which is great. That's fantastic, but it's trending down very slowly. Housing contributed half to the increase.

You're still not seeing any of a decrease in housing. You're still not seeing the services disinflation that you really want to start seeing Now Yes, we have leading indicators like uh Chipotle easier to hire less labor turnover Uber more available drivers Uh, a 36 percent more available drivers Lyft Fell 30 after they talked about an extreme increase in the supply of drivers leading to less Peak pricing meaning less margins for Lyft Starbucks Finding it easier to hire people So interestingly, you are starting to see the early signs of disinflation and wages, but it looks like it's still going to be a few months before that actually shows up as well as the housing data. In fact, if you consider January of 2022 when we started seeing every earnings call basically to say the option or opposite that everybody's got pricing power that we're going to raise prices like crazy. Uh, what you ended up happening or what you ended up having happened was inflation ended up getting worse for about six months.

So it took really about a full six months for inflation to really fully show up after those earnings calls. So maybe the earnings calls are really a leading indicator Six months out of what you could expect. But what's remarkable really is you didn't really have a peak of inflation until about July despite this potential Peak pricing power talk in earnings calls in January That's a six to seven month delay. Well, now we're starting to get this talk about disinflation and wages and earnings calls.

We might not actually see that come up in inflation data until about the second half of the year, which is hopefully when inflation from Uh from from housing will show up as well. The problem is the following: What if Goods inflation slows down? What if Goods inflation or disinflation stalls and CPI or inflation stalls out around four to five percent? Well, Federal Reserve is going to be essentially continuing to embark on their 25 BP hikes and they'll stay a lot higher for a lot longer now. Of course, this report could have been worse. Wasn't bad at 0.27 now 0.27 on an annualized basis for current core Services X And uh, X housing is about 3.24 annualized rate of core services, so it's not bad.

Remember, we've got the flash sale going on today. Valentine's Day We'll be sending out uh Buy sell alerts for some of the trades that I'm making. What I'm thinking about probably doing is closing out some of the positions I opened and doubling down on another one. Uh I've got a particular position I Really want to increase my exposure to? Uh so uh, we'll We'll see what happens there from a trade point of view, but very surprised.

Rising CPI report all set. but anyway, all those alerts will be going out to those of you in the stocks and psychology. MoneyGram Of course if you're part of the elite Hustlers Course we are starting a Saturday live streams for those this weekend. If you want to Shadow me or take advantage of any of the programs I'm building your wealth Largest uh, largest discount that we've ever had on a percentage basis.

69 is linked down below. All right, let's uh, let's see what else we got going on in uh markets. So we have, uh, that's uh, that's CPI for you. Let's go ahead and take a look at what's going on in.

China I'm gonna answer a few questions here and then we'll go look at what's going on in China here. Bank of America says they're buying back stocks. You have a lot of companies buying back stocks right now. Dealers make so much money front and back end financing upsells the dealership business has been good.

Uh, it'll be interesting to see how that changes with companies like Volkswagen Thinking about getting rid of their dealership uh, model in the future? How does the mythology change fall into this? Yeah, I mean, uh. we. We've seen an increase in the weight for housing and actually apparel, so maybe, maybe, uh, you could see the uh, the fact that you've got, uh, an increase in the waiting change uh for for apparel leading to that, uh, at least some of that uh, boost in CPI uh for apparel. but I'll tell you that that apparel read wow, It's just shocking point: Eight percent on apparel, 9.6 annualized inflation? Yeah, right, Yeah, right.