Hey everyone meet kevin here. Why the heck is the stock market falling all of a sudden? We just had a two-week run. We've had a lot of euphoria. Stocks have hit all-time new highs, bitcoin has hit new highs.

Everything has been going to the absolute moon with the exception of insurtech, paypal and pinterest, but don't worry about those those are smaller positions they might have. The larger positions have all literally gone to the moon, a firm etsy and face tesla, you name it all of them have gone to the moon. This saturday, i put a million fifty dollars into that. That's a million and fifty thousand dollars such a weird word to say uh into a bitcoin on saturday at sixty one thousand eight hundred dollars it just hit all-time highs of sixty eight thousand eight hundred dollars.

I put over a million dollars into voyager digital at twelve dollars and thirty cents. I did take a little bit of profits, but with the six hundred thousand dollars that i have left in it, we have now seen that almost double as voyager digital has gone. Almost up to 21 a share, there has been some insane euphoria so what's going on, and why is it that all of a sudden, the indices are turning red? Well, let's talk about this, but first i want to give a quick shout out to those of you in my course member alive streams. I appreciate talking to you every single day.

This was a screenshot from actually today's course. Member live stream. Where frank a realtor said yesterday in the live stream, the course member live stream kevin said might be time to take some profits sold. All my individual shares, uh and then dollar sign dollar sign dollar sign, because today the market is uh rotating uh.

To the downside, a little bit now, obviously frank trading a little bit. I would never sell out of my entire position, but it's worth noting that, if you're interested in having sort of a private dialogue, what's going on in the market and uh doing a q, a back and forth or just being or hearing some more detail on my Thoughts or explaining myself a little bit more check out the course linked down below on building your wealth stocks and psychology of money or the other courses use that coupon code stock doc, and i can write you a prescription for uh making money, hopefully not guaranteed and Not financial advice link below alright folks, so why is the market slipping a little bit? Let's take a look here quickly at the indices, so you can just get an idea. You've got volatility that went up almost to six percent. You've got the indices down a third to half of a percent russell doing the worst.

Russell was almost down a full one percent. Why is this happening? What is going on? Well, if you subscribe to the youtube channel - which hopefully you do you already know that i suggested there was a potential coming market crash catalyst. Now some of the commentary here was from folks who are like. Oh my gosh kevin.

Why are you always trying to talk about a market crash? The market's green, and here you are trying to make the market crash again. Yada yada like these, these random sort of miscellaneous counts. Fortunately, those comments were the minority, but they missed the point, and this is sometimes the stupidity that you see in miscellaneous corners of the internet. The best time to talk about the potential for a market crash is literally when the market is zooming.

So that way you know what's happening when it's happening and you're not getting blindsided folks. I kid you not. You could watch this. This video was posted november 5th.

That is four days ago. That was friday. That's two trading days ago, not monday, but friday. There's only one trading day in between that and what i said in this video is the coming market crash.

Catalyst was uncertainty regarding the federal reserve. If there's any indication that it's not jerome powell, the market was likely to sell off. Well folks, i kid you not. I said this on friday.

I kid you not. This is the headline today: biden meets with powell brennard at white house, as he weighs fed pick, and the fact that the president hasn't made a decision on central bank leadership and the fact that he's interviewing somebody other than powell, somebody that, even if you don't like Him, at least you know him, you know where he stands. You know his position on monetary policy and you feel comfortable, maybe not uh, you know endorsing of, but you feel comfortable in knowing that you know where his head is right. You have certainty in what jerome powell believes.

Jerome powell is very, very consistent. He's a centrist he's not super far hawkish and he's not super far dovish he's a centrist. He has this, and this is like in monetary policy terms, not like left or right, like democrat or republican uh and uh. He look here's a quick summary of what he thinks.

He believes that inflation is caused mostly by transitory forces. The transitory is lasting longer and it's larger than expected. We have the inflation. We know this.

We have big inflation right now, but once we get back to fixing our supply chains and manufacturing processes become more efficient and all of a sudden, we potentially have an oversupply of products, things that have been moving. Uh inflation up like used cars, chips, uh. You know clothing whatever these sort like wedding dresses. I don't know why that one always comes up in inflationary, uh issues or with inflationary issues or even food.

Some of these things might have the opportunity to come back down. This is what jerome powell believes. Jerome powell believes that we're going to taper between now here in november, all the way through about june july of 2022, and then at that point we'll have another seven or eight cpi reports between here and there. Of course they use the pce, not the cpi.

Don't worry about it, it's a tiny or minor difference if very, very similar pci comes out like two or three weeks later, it's kind of annoying that it comes out so much later, but anyway, and then the federal reserve will determine whether or not to lift off Or increase interest rates, which we expect interest rates, could go up once in the second half of 2022, about 60 percent of market participants believe we're going to see rates, go up uh in june of 2022, and then we're expecting two rate increases in 2023 and three Rate increases in 2024 spread out, so that would get us back up to uh almost two percent for the federal reserve, uh funds rate. So that's the expectation that we have at the moment now when, if you get, if you throw in a new person to the mix okay well, how does this person think you know what what what's what do we know about them? Well, it's actually kind of tough. If you go look at the history here, this is an older piece here from 2015, and it's worth noting that in 2015 is listed here. As a former treasury under secretary for internal international affairs in the obama administration has given relatively few public speeches.

This is what i've noticed as well gives very few speeches you type into youtube, and you try to hear more from her. You don't get a lot of interviews from her of the interviews you have. Most of them are dated and uh, but, and then bloomberg here says from what we've heard she's been fairly doves dovish, but in 2019, reuters listed them all here as either doves or hawks, and you can see she's right here in the middle, as listed as a Centrist, along with jerome powell, but the potential problem with this is because she doesn't give a lot of speeches and because she's listed as a centrist, we have even less clarity on which way she actually leans. It's look if you have a hawk, it's obvious, which way they're gon na lean, they're gon na go.

Let's raise rates right away. If you have a dove, let's wait right or dove uh. But anyway, when you have a centrist, it's like ah crap, they could go either way. We don't have a lot of interviews and what we have instead is a lot of uncertainty and that's what the market does not like uncertainty.

So when is joe biden going to actually pick so this uncertainty can end my prediction and and yes uh so far, i was correct about my prediction that the next market, pullback catalyst, was going to be uncertainty around the federal reserve. It literally came within two days. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back. This is just what happens if you have your head in newspapers and market dues every freaking day, you uh, you can oftentimes see things with with, i would say, a more skewed likelihood of accuracy right.

I don't want to say that i have a crystal ball. I don't uh, but when we look at this and you look at sort of the way the market functions and you get good at doing this - you you have a greater chance of being right. More often, i'd say, 70 to 80, sometimes even 80 to 90, more likely to be correct than wrong, which is good, because that helps you with your investments as well and it's important to analyze and know what fear catalysts are. So you know, is this a buy? The dip opportunity, or what we'll talk about that in a moment so uh when when when my expectation, is that the cpi report comes out wednesday, then jerome powell attached from joe biden's, going to break down this cpi report, probably his staff is going to do that.

I doubt he's going to read the report uh. They will finalize their discussions. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting some kind of answer on the federal reserve nomination by the end of the day on friday. Part of me thinks that joe biden is kind of going this direction of.

Oh, let's potentially interview a centrist woman, because this has been a big priority for joe biden is diversifying uh how many males we have in in leadership positions uh and getting more women involved in in higher positions. Remember, treasury secretary uh woman, janet yellen kamala harris a female vp right these. These are big things uh, and so it's not a surprise uh. I think legacy wise uh.

It's you know. We've already had janet yellen as a woman chair, uh person. So i don't know if it's necessary. The market's reaction today could actually reiterate that joe biden should just stick with powell.

It wouldn't surprise me, but this i'm less confident in it. Wouldn't surprise me if joe biden ends up - and i put like a 60 confidence on this - wouldn't surprise me if joe biden interviewed her, but then it's like, ah just kidding, we're gon na stick with jay powell for now and uh. You know maybe next time, if i get re-elected i'll, uh well, you'll be the top contender at that time, but for now we'll stick with jay pal uh and uh yeah because of the market turmoil that we've seen after after we discuss the potential for this uh. This shake-up so to speak, uh, so that's an expectation i have i i'm thinking by friday.

We should know. I wouldn't be surprised if it's after market closes, if it's not by friday uh. I think the market and the market doesn't get an answer by monday. The market's going to freak out a little bit more and we could potentially see the buy the dip extend until joe biden responds.

So if joe biden makes the decision soon - or maybe he accelerates his decision because he sees the market sort of rotating down uh, then uh, then obviously that would be a change, keep in mind uh when the stock market was through going through its euphoric rally. There were a lot of uh, thank you, brandon's trending, on things like twitter and and a lot of them were saying. Oh thanks, joe biden for the record stock market. Look we.

We know it's generally, not presidents that are causing this. They have an impact, but uh the market cycles, in my opinion, are relatively independent of of the presidency, but there are definitely pluses and minuses depending on that that occur from presidencies uh because of uncertainties within their administration right like when we had the budget deficit and Debt ceiling crisis, because democrats couldn't figure out what the hell they wanted to do. You know that that is a fear catalyst and that leads to uncertainty in the market and that's when you get by the dip opportunity. So am i buying this dip uh.

We know that tesla tesla dipped a good chunk today. Uh we see uh, you know lemonade paypal, uh, lucid a lot, a firm, a lot of companies dipping today am i buying the dip. No not yet. This is.

This is not a dip for me to buy uh. I am very, very, very patient in this regard. I am also slightly in margin about uh two percent, not that big of a deal. If we got a serious dip, i'd be more than happy to uh, pull from margin and and go shopping, but numbers would have to be vastly different from where they are now.

We're barely coming off all-time highs here and uh. It's way too early for me to buy the dip. Although i you all know that i am a by the dipper and if you want to get notifications for every single time, i buy or sell something not as uh. You know instructions for what you to do, but just as ideas check out the stocks, psychology and money program link down below use that coupon code before the price goes up again and folks.

Thank you for watching. Thank you for subscribing share the video. If you found this helpful, we'll see in the next one thanks so much goodbye, you.