Welcome back to the channel everyone today i want to talk about why the hedgies haven't yet covered and what they're hoping for - and i also want to talk about chinese banks now starting to fail so stay tuned. Then, let's make some money, but before i dive into the video, i just want to give a massive shout out to the 5 100 of you that are currently ding. That notification bell, because you guys always the first to watch a new video as soon as it's released so guys be sure to drop a like down below subscribe to the channel ending that notification bell, if you haven't already so that you don't miss another video. Just like this one and just a quick one before i dive in with the key information, if you haven't already be sure to pick yourself up, some cool amc related merch.

This is my tiller moon hoodie, which i think is my favorite. But i've also got a bunch of other designs over on my website, linked in the description below and now i want to dive straight in with the key information. So we've got a tweet here from the last bear standing saying: video of protests at ping and bank as of yesterday, where police were called apparently being censored locally details unclear at this point but could be related to developer xi. Xiang wang.

As you can see, this video shows loads and loads of people gathered outside ping and bank, with police guarding the bank crazy times already, and he also tweeted saying things are getting hotter. Meanwhile, there was a smaller than expected liquidity injection in the first and the global times is making it absolutely clear. It intends to pop the bubble being china intends to pop their own bubble. Here's some quick details of c chen luang as of a couple of weeks ago.

They had 31 billion dollars of liabilities. Initial weaknesses showed up in february, but led down in april before settling at just 25 cents on a dollar in july. So this is c shangrang's bond price and also their stock price, which also looks remarkably similar to evergrande or evergrand, and there's now actual reports that says these home buyers, whose deposits for apartments with c shanghuang were used to repay debt owed by the developer, to ping-ang, Demonstrating the difficult choices to come, therefore, it seems like xi: shanghuang borrowed a bunch of money from ping-ang bank to obviously fund their new developments. They then took tons and tons of deposits from actual customers and residents in china, and now obviously you see shangri-lang is going bankrupt and they've already repaid that debt to ping-ang and now that's why all of these home buyers are gathering outside ping-ang bank because their deposits Have now effectively been lost, it'd be very interesting to know whether the full loan and the full debt amount was repaid to ping and bank, considering what's happening with evergrande and how it's impacting pretty much all chinese property developers.

I doubt they received their full investment back and that's why it's going to impact chinese banks majorly as well, because all of these property developers aren't going to be able to repay the full loan amount and therefore the banks are going to take massive realized losses. Not just unrealised, but those losses are going to be realized. On top of this, we've got a tweet from fx hedge sin. Evergrand related jumbo fortune note for 260 million dollars has not been paid cross, a concern to creditors, so you might ask what a cross-credit default is and it happens when loans are cross-collateralized against each other and it basically means if one loan goes into default, then all Of the other loans also going to default and citibank, says the china default watch has started.

Here's the timeline of upcoming maturities of various different loans to property developers, excluding fantasia and evergrande or evergrant, who have already missed their payments and, as you can see, there's tons of massive chinese property developer bonds here that do have upcoming bond maturities and interest payment dates That are likely not going to be mere, and this is why the chinese property developer situation is going to have such a massive impact. Here. You've already got billions worth of just solely interest, repayments that are going to be missed and that's going to equate to billions. If not trillions of dollars on actual bonds that default and become worthless, i know you might say well actually tom.

That is quite a big list, but the list doesn't stop. There there's also another screenshot with another 10 to 15 names on and another screenshot with another 10 to 15 names on and another screenshot after that, with even more but now, let's also talk about amc. So why haven't the hedges covered? Yet when they've obviously lost three words, the sunk cost fallacy. I saw this question pop up in the feeds a few days ago and i'm sure it's something every ape has wondered at least once so.

I wanted to offer my two cents says this poster as a disclaimer: i'm not an expert on stocks or wall street or any of that, i'm just a smooth brained ape who likes the stock. But i do come from a family of recreational gamblers, annual trips to vegas plus day trips to smaller casinos a few times a year. Pre-Pandemic and they've taught me a thing or two about responsible gambling and what's happened with the hedges? Is they've fallen victim to the oldest gambling pitfall, the sunk cost fallacy. So what is the sunk cost fallacy in gambling, at least it's when you're on a major losing streak and find yourself thinking? If i keep going and just get one big hit once i can at least make back my money and break even it's that line of thinking that leads you to keep playing when you should just count it as a loss and walk away.

Instead, you keep digging thinking, you'll hit gold, but wind up digging your own grave instead and sure you could get lucky and win it big, but you're far more likely to go bust, and that can also be evidenced by this article here. Gamestop and amc short sellers recover close to one billion dollars in two weeks. Now that might sound impressive, that hedges have recovered one billion dollars in a matter of a few weeks, but you have to remember, is that's only a small portion of their total unrecognized losses. So far so far, the hedges have lost 6.21 billion dollars on gamestop and also 3.49 billion dollars on amc.

So that's nearly 10 billion dollars that they're currently in the reds. So, yes, they did manage to recover 590 million dollars on amc over the last few weeks and 230 million dollars on gamestop as well, and therefore they've almost recovered a billion dollars and therefore they're only nine billion dollars in the reds and also remember that's nine billion Dollars in the red on only the legal shorts, so potentially many times that in the red, when you include all of the synthetic shorts, potentially 30 or even 40 billion dollars in the red or say at least 20 billion in the reds. And that's why the hedges haven't covered yet because they're 9 billion in the red or potentially 20 to 30 to 40 billion in the reds, so they're on this massive losing streak and they know if they cover their short position now they could potentially go bankrupt and Lose their firm or the investors might withdraw all of their cash, and that's why they're holding on for dear life to try and at least break, even obviously, as the post here says, they're far more likely to go bust. And now it seems like what they're trying to do is secure a net long position over in a dark pool.

Maybe they've got a 20 or a 30 billion short position and they're now trying to also secure a 30 or a 40 billion dollar long position so that if the stock goes up, they'll make more money on their lungs than they lose on their shorts. Motohomie tweets, saying here's an update: are we gearing up for another run, jumped up another 200 million dollars in the dark pool the highest ever was a net long position of 1.5 billion dollars back in may. So i showed you this data the other day and it basically shows a net long position of 869 million dollars in the dark pool. That basically means all of their long positions.

Take away the short positions equals 869 million positive dollars, meaning they hold a net long back in may. They had 1.561 billion dollars as a net long position and then obviously let the amc stock run up because they would have made more money on those longs than they would have lost on the shorts. I imagine they'll first continue trying to build up their net long position from around 869 million to at least 1.5 billion, if not two three or four billion before letting amc run up, but also, how does one avoid the sunk cost fallacy responsible gamblers avoid the sunk Cost fallacy, by adhering to gambling's golden rule, never bet more than you can afford to lose. You should only ever gamble with money.

You would have spent on entertainment anyways, not with the money you need for food or bills, or mortgage or rent gambling with money. You can't afford to lose is a great way to fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy. If things don't go your way, what the hedges did when they shorted amc, was they messed around with more money than they could afford to lose, and it was their clients money as well between the usual bag of tricks and the pandemic, decimating the theatre industry, they Thought they had a sure thing, but investing in stocks is basically gambling and in gambling there's never a sure thing. They shorted the stock so much that covering in january would have bankrupted them.

Now, it's months later, the stock has been shorted to oblivion and apes aren't going anywhere. They keep delaying the inevitable because it's literally their only option, but they can't hold off forever, whether it's through drs and economic crash, their clients, finally demanding their money back or something else. Sooner or later, their hedges will run out of options and be forced to close their shorts. Meanwhile, all us apes have to do is what we've been doing, which is to buy and hold.

Alternatively, as the data shows you here, it looks like the hedges might be. Actually, trying to secure a net long position and using even more of their clients money to buy up more amt stock so that, hopefully, when they let amc run up, they will make more money on the longs than they lose on the shores. And i also wanted to talk about some interesting finds received by citadel robin hood virtue, simplex and susquehanna and they've all been fined by finra for violations in failure to either establish, maintain or enforce a supervisory system. And, interestingly, all of the above also shore amc stock, and now robin hood was fined because the firm failed to establish and maintain a supervisory system and failed to establish, maintain and enforce written supervisory procedures that were reasonably designed to achieve compliance with finra rules.

The most interesting part of this fine is that finra found that the firm failed to establish or maintain a customer identification program that was appropriate for its size of business and approved more than 90 000 accounts that had been flagged for potential fraud without further manual review. So basically, robin hood approved 90 000 accounts that were potentially fraudulent or fake accounts that could potentially be used for market manipulation. So citadel was fine because the firm failed to have a supervisory system, including wsps, that was reasonably designed to achieve compliance with finra rules requiring the use of short sale indicators. The firm conducted end of day reviews for the accuracy of short sale transaction reporting.

But these reviews did not include trades affected through all of its execution systems, so it basically sounds like all of the trades that went through citadel connect were misreported to finra and either weren't reported at all or the short sales were reported as long positions, but worst Of all is the fines received or the lack of fines received. We can see that virtue didn't get fined at all for their violation. Simplex got a forty thousand dollar fine susquehanna. Only a five thousand dollar fine citadel also didn't get a fine at all, and neither did robin hood either for their violation, and i also wanted to touch on adam aaron's recent tweet.

Some of you have suggested the ceo of amc. Theaters i've been playing chess while detractors have been playing checkers on the weekend that james bond's, no time to die, opens in the us. It feels more like amc has been playing three-dimensional chess to the naysayers. I say it loud choke on that guys, be sure to.

Let me know down in the comments below what you think about the shorts not yet having covered and whether you think they're trying to secure a net long position before letting amc run up and also while you're down there be sure to pick up. Some amc related merch plug the to the moon hoodie from my store linked in the description and as always guys, if you enjoyed this video, be sure to check out some of my others. Alternatively, subscribe to channel and ding that notification bell, because that way, you'll be alerted when i upload a new video cheers.