Hey everyone me kevin here: welcome back to another market, open live stream, omg! Oh, you know i i i've been sitting and chatting in the course member chat all morning, uh well for, like the last hour and a half, and i am dead tired, because jack woke up at 3, 45 screaming and i'm like what are you screaming about and He's like kevin what's happening in the ukraine. Okay. Half of that is true. Half of that is not true, but ah look the last thing.

The last thing the markets want right now is the potential uh that we are pricing in uh, armed conflict and the ukraine, and now do we actually expect the united states to go to war with russia? No uh, but uh. Is it possible that you know when diplomats are now being uh suggested to essentially leave ukraine and people in the baltics are freaking out and nato's deploying uh? You know weaponry to to the baltic regions? Is it possible now that uh markets will will suffer more under the weight of this uh pain and uncertainty? Yes, yes much more so than i previously thought trying to get this stupid camera to focus too, what's wrong with that one uh, but anyway, um. Look when i previously have been studying this uh ukraine, conflict and crimea, and that i didn't price in that much pain for the stock market. For this rush, i think hold on one sec.

Come here stupid camera, what's wrong with you, but anyway now i think i have to price in uh, oh there we go. It worked uh. Now. I think we have to price in a little bit more uncertainty, unfortunately, for the uh russia disaster uh this just sucks.

I i i mean we're going to look at the sticks here in a moment, but it's it's not good. I i mean - and i i know by now you know that i'm i'm out uh, but i'm looking for opportunities to buy back in right uh. I am five percent and i think this is so important. Honestly, i think everybody should have this on their twitter.

By line is how much percent short they are, i'm five percent short, but uh i did. I did make a tiny uh crypto play. Well, i mean it wasn't really tiny, but as a percentage of the portfolio was less than five percent um anyway, i made a crypto play and i set a stop loss before going to bed and i am so freaking happy. I did because i woke up and i got stopped out, but i saw it was down way more than my stop and uh.

I'm like thank god for for stop losses on trades like one of the most critical tools. If you're trading, you, like you, you you could make a trade. How are you supposed to know that that uh that all of a sudden biden's considering sending troops uh, you know? How are you supposed to come up with that? Crap anyway, stop losses? Okay, anyway, let's um oh gosh, i yeah, i haven't even had food. Yet, oh well, it's i'm on like three hours of sleep.

I think i went to bed at like one uh or like actually fell asleep at one and uh now now and then woke up at like 3 45. So i guess that's even less than three hours, but anyway, uh we'll be fine. Everything's. Everything will eventually be fine.

I suppose all right. Let's take a look here it right now, and this is, i don't know if it's because of retail numbers or what but uh. I do think it's uh, it's possible that uh some folks are traveling over to retail stocks as a method of uh protection and uh. We'll we'll talk about that in just a moment.

Let me see here: uh stop-loss, don't send troop slipped in yeah yeah. Oh no biden has a unique history with the ukraine. Stop. You know you.

You can always rely on those sort of comments to make you smile, oh man. Okay, sorry, we got to focus on what's going on here, uh! Oh, there are some of my. I forgot to even turn off some of these early morning alarms because well, i'm already up, but anyway, as you can see, futures are quite brutal right now, but not only your future's, quite brutal individual stocks are looking quite brutal, so uh. What do we got here? We got the dow down about a third s p down about .66.

You know. What's interesting is i i did a a stock screener of uh, the short interest of dow stocks. Every single dow stock is under three percent short they're, all like under two and a half percent. I'm pretty sure i think one might be 10 a little bit higher, but it's it's incredibly low, yeah uh smp down two thirds nasdaq down 1.12.

Oh my gosh! It actually i mean just in the last 20 minutes, while i was getting the stream ready. It went from like point seven to uh to this hold on a sec. Let me see what i've been looking at. Oh, no! No, okay! Oh wait! No! What that is so confusing yeah the uh, the little investing was so which one's right hold on a second here.

Look at this. This is the investing.com app and it has the u.s tech down 1.15. Oh, it's falling more. Look at the time, see how that says.

526 folks holy crap cnbc is delayed. It's getting worse, the spy's now down, basically a full percent nasdaq's down one and a half percent wow. I did not know that. I mean it says it right there, but yeah cnbc is 10 minutes freaking delayed.

So you thought you thought this was bad. This is 10 minutes delayed folks holy crap, oh, no! No! No! No! Okay! Uh holy crap! Oh my gosh hot aid, mining's down 14! Oh coinbase, is at 169., oh, oh, my gosh. I'm getting chills mad reports at 9. 50., oh my gosh tattooed chef's gon na be the next back under 10..

Oh my gosh, even sophie's, back to 1292.. Oh, i want to see how the lines are doing on the minute here. Uh are we? Are we trending down more tentatively that that appears to be the case? Um thanks, foolish investor yeah, i i mean look. It is what it is right.

I uh. I i think i changed without even realizing it. You know it's one of those things where you just have to kind of like self acknowledge like yeah, okay, now i'm trading um, oh well, anyway. Okay sure i had to stay focused here and i'm so i'm so dead, uh jack screaming in the middle of the night is not fun and yesterday for for anybody's anybody who cares.

Yesterday was max's birthday. He turned four yesterday that was cool uh. Okay. What would i freeze here there we go, i think i did for a sec.

Oh, oh there we go okay, okay, okay, so one of the things that's interesting to me is what's green right now, other than than this ticker called the vix is uh macy's, and so i think this is really interesting to me is that it seems like you Have like potential look either some really good earnings came out or or something uh. Let me see here which i don't think so, but i i honestly i don't know why. But retail here is kicking butt right now in terms of macy's and nordstrom. Personally, i think, there's a chance there's a little bit of a um, a flight to safety that people see in macy's and nordstrom, which quite frankly, sounds insane like.

Could you imagine anybody in 2022 saying oh yeah, i'm gon na invest in macy to flee to safety. Yeah, it would have been a good investment, but, but still like you know it's just not what you would have thought uh, so i'll i'll pull up the back end here, let's see what we got z, q, e y. I think i should from now on also just pitch whatever the headline is on this: it's z, q, e y. I don't think that really means anything uh.

Most of the time it doesn't mean anything uh, yeah, yeah anyway, max is the one who is unvaccinated got. Was coveted positive had no symptoms and his explanation was he punched it all right so um all right? Let's keep looking at these tickers! Oh, my gosh, okay, so uh okay, little little bit of calm uh in the last minute or two here, the uh, with the exception of well no hud 8, is still still in pain, 14.15 percent, that's nuts, matterport 7.65. So far, pound tear wow! This is a lot of pain, robin hood. Oh my gosh, uh 1220 tesla, oh tesla's, under 900, it's at 8.90.

Oh, the problem is right. Now there is there is such such a dirty uh uh confluence of bad news, and i suppose this maybe might help answer. Zachary's question: there's such a dirty confluence of bad news right now, because you have this this first of all, every bit of good news is just going to create opportunities for other people to get out. This is a psychological phenomenon and i know i i i look even though i sold my portfolio.

Psychology still matters. Okay, when we have market rallies and we consistently have these little rallies that get sold off, which we've had for the last eight weeks. Why does that happen? You got ta, ask yourself uh here and i'll. I will depict it visually because i think that helps.

Okay. So let's say let's say somebody bought btc for thirty five thousand dollars right and right now btc goes to. I don't know what it is right now: thirty, three thousand or thirty, two thousand, what it doesn't really matter what it is right now right. Let's say it falls to that level.

Uh what happens when you get a little rally? Well, when you get a rally and the price of btc goes back to uh 35k well, that could signal to somebody else who's like wait a minute. This doesn't just go straight up. You know what i don't even know why i bought btc. Let me just get out at a break even break.

Even thresholds are really really important for people because they provide a consistent stream of sellers and, unfortunately, until that consistent stream of sellers stops, you can continue to see convictionless rallies. That's just the psychology of the market and unfortunately, we are in such an environment where we are just being flooded with bad news. Not only do we expect and - and i know some people are like - oh maybe, the federal u-turn, the fed, doesn't u-turn because the stock market's down you know four percent on the s p or six percent or whatever the fed, don't give a crap about six percent. The fed thinks assets are overvalued, they're not going to u-turn, so you got fed sadness uh.

You know this is the hawkishness you've got now the ukraine disaster. You have the supply chain fears with omicron and you had some retail slowdown at the beginning of january uh. Anyway, uh you combine even just these three things and you got big issues right. The fat hawk because uh with with the expectations of uh rates, going up and uh tightening, but folks, on top of this, you got cpi.

Look what if we got, i mean i i don't believe this. I really don't, because i do still think that at some point inflation will go down. I don't know when i've given up on when uh i i was definitely wrong about the end of last year. I've so i've given up on when uh and and i mean the sudden excuse, i think it's reality.

I think delta screwed - that up, i think, if we didn't have delta cpi, would have kept falling because it was falling in the summer. Everything was going according to plan, but uh. Then you get hit over the head with delta, but anyway uh. This is bad.

This is all bad, and so the reality is, i think a lot of people are uh are, are throwing their their expectations behind earnings, and so you've got a lot of folks that are like oh, but kevin earnings. Earnings are going to be great. I mean look at tesla, tesla had the greatest beat ever come on folks, the tesla deliveries are the good news part. What more good news can there be? I mean unless they're announcing like a 25 000 car or something crazy which maybe they will but and that'd be wonderful, but the good news has already been given to us.

The earnings report is the leftover bad news. Like the leftover reality, i mean last time we had a big margin, beat on on earnings uh, and so it was rare, but we actually rallied uh. But i mean that's like a one or two out of eight times that tesla rallies after earnings and all it's going to take is elon. Musk going on the conference call going yeah.

I think we might end up going into a recession in q1 or q2, but certainly by 2023., if he says that come on man you're, just gon na tank, the freaking stock yeah - i don't know i'm just saying uh, you know i i one one thing that I like about sarc so in case you're not familiar with sarc sark is uh an inverse arc position. So basically, when uh arc k, it is our k when rk goes down. Uh sarc goes up. So let's just fact check this here.

Sarc right now in pre-market is positive. 4.3 percent arc k is negative, four percent, so it's possible that there's like a five-minute delay or something in that and they're not going to be exactly perfect. But basically the nice thing about sarc is you're, not you're paying about. I think it's uh 80 basis points uh in an etf fee and uh.

I don't i'm not an expert in swaps. Honestly, i am a complete idiot when it comes to swaps. I understand the concept of swaps, but not much more beyond that. Okay, i just want to be fully transparent, so uh.

The beauty, though about swap contracts, is uh. You you, you are not paying the theta decay that you would have on um on puts like if you bought options, and you are. I do believe that swaps contain some form of interest rate premia, i'm not sure exactly what that is. I do believe that is substantially less than what you were likely to pay on short margin, so so, in other words, i do think there are benefits to using sarc over put contracts and over um, i'm trying to say um shorting directly.

So with that long explanation, i i do think there's a benefit to having sarc in a portfolio. This is not financial advice but like quite frankly, you know it. It probably makes more sense to have a put on arc than it does on the qqq. I'm on the qqq, i got ta, listen to my own advice uh, but at least i'm transparent about that.

You know. That's one of the things i always like to do is just like yeah, you know. Sometimes i just follow my intuition and it's right sometimes uh. I don't follow my intuition and then i'm mad that i didn't and a lot of times.

I follow my intuition and i'm wrong, but, like you know the thing is. I always believe this. If, if you follow your gut and you're wrong, at least you have nobody to blame, but yourself, if you know you, oh there, we go get rid of that display name if you, if you listen to somebody else and you you blindly copy somebody else. Well then, you're always going to feel bitter uh, because you never take responsibility for your own for your own moves right anyway, uh right now, it does look like well i mean you can see it here.

Qqq is worsening right. Now, i'm a little nervous about the day chart because take a look at the day chart we plowed through this freaking trend blind, and this was a serious trend line that we had on qqq for a while here, not only i mean we broke, the hundred breaking The hundred was a joke. Let me see i mean that the market dude - oh there, we go, i disappeared for a second there we go uh, oh yeah. I mean okay yeah, that that's easy too.

I mean we. I don't, i honestly don't even know do we have any moving averages that we're i mean what about? Let me try ema so uh in case you're not familiar, the ema is the exponential moving average and one of the benefits of it is. It is more responsive to recent uh. You know drama so to speak than uh past the way it's weighted, you're waiting recent data more than past data.

That's just a quick, easy explanation. Yeah i mean the moving averages are just crap right now it doesn't even freaking matter. Let me go back to turning on my simples um yeah, that's ugly, that's ugly! What about the 200? Let me let me turn the 200 on. Let's do one more i'll! Just make this the 200.

there we go yeah, oh no, we're at the 200 we're past the 200. Now too, oh my gosh! Well, that's really interesting! Zachary! If you look at the map, the land russia is taking in the land, china is taking, will return them. Both to pre-ussr standing, fun, facts yeah, i like that you put fun and quotes there, yeah uh. You know don first of all, love the profile pic.

Second of all, yes uh. This is the market kicking and screaming at the fed. Uh. Look! Here's the problem! Okay! Let's do this, i don't know if they said it in this, but i'm gon na look valuation.

Maybe they didn't is the search function not going to work asked to purchase it. The federal what i was looking for and they've said this recently and frequently - maybe it wouldn't be in the minutes - maybe it'd be in the uh fomc statement. But anyway, what i was looking for was was the fed talking about uh, excessive valuations in markets and, unfortunately, when the fed does that, i don't believe they are. I don't think they care.

Oh yeah. Here you go. I don't think they really care about a little sell-off in the market if anything, that's probably good for them. Okay, take a look at this.

The staff noted that asset valuations here we go. The staff noted that asset valuations remain generally high relative to historic norms, while equity prices continue to increase, supported by strong earnings expectations, not actual earnings, expectations right still low treasury yields and a high risk appetite. The fed does not like that. The fed does not like high valuations and high risk appetite if anything, j pal is waking up right now going good.

We want the market to sell off a little bit. Here's another time they mentioned this. A few participants emphasized the importance of maintaining strong bank capital positions. A few participants also cited a number of factors representing potential vulnerabilities to the financial system that included elevated asset valuations prevailing widely across asset classes.

Okay, so in other words, a risk to the financial system is when prices are too high, because obviously the higher prices are the more they can fall right. I did say this that is so funny uh. Oh, why is this not working hold on? I don't know why i can't put this person's comment up. I really want to uh anyway.

Oh there, it is okay, when you did the fomc meetings, live stream meeting minutes live stream. You said, you're a fool. If you don't sell anything. This was two weeks ago.

I'm so glad i did thanks kev. I wish see that's one of the times. I really wish. I just listened to myself uh because that it like it brings tears to my eyes, not not just not thinking about myself but thinking about everybody, because the the minutes were so bad in december, so bad.

I i have in, in my you know, 15 years of studying the fed, never seen something that ugly, it's it's the most disgusting minutes, i've ever seen, but anyway, these include elevated asset, valuations prevailing widely across asset classes, the growing exposure of banks to non-bank, financial firms And the risk of sudden reduction in liquidity of collateral at clearing firms - okay, uh yeah - i mean the bigger thing is just mentioning that part of this is: is asset values? Oh i mean like. I don't want to be mr fudd and and that's what i got called when i did the minutes there, but whatever hey look. The good news is: there's a slight little green little tick here, oh yeah, all right, let's see here, i do want to see i'm kind of curious to see what gold spot is right. Now, oh, look tesla's recovering a little bit.

We've seen all this crap before. Look all these little fake rallies are just opportunities for people to get out. I like we talked about a little bit earlier on the stream and - and i think that's a problem. Let me get gold spot quickly.

Gold spot, oh yeah, uh margin has been falling. The last two months it fell two percent and then one percent, but again it's still 66 percent higher than where it was in january of 2020, so margins still substantially elevated. We can look at a moment, okay, so gold right now, i think, is at about 1836. So it's ticked up a little bit.

I mean i'm not gon na buy gold, uh, sorry steve, but uh anyway. What was i gon na? Look at now? I have no idea. I i literally was just gon na look something up, but i i whatever anyway uh. Oh uh, you know yeah all of these, these these little fake rallies.

I tell you over and over and over again these little fake out little rallies just get sold uh all right. Let's go to btc usd oh yeah, so i know i have a lot of lines drawn here. Btc is probably my most liney liney. That sounds like whiny.

Let me go to the one hour here we go so this is the one hour on btc uh auntie. I was really nervous when we were in this, like no man's land. I really thought that yesterday, when we had futures that we we would break the 36 368 and or the 36 2 line, and we were on a trend to breaking. I should have waited for confirmation here, uh and, and we started breaking down to our lower support level, which is kind of where we had been riding, and it wasn't until the ukraine disaster this morning that that this happened and so right now it looks like we're Kind of on the road to going to 32 9 - oh i'm sorry! That's where we hit! We hit 32 9.

I have a support line drawn at 32 6 and that's on the candle wick there. Let's look really quickly at the uh, the nyt here, because they've got they've got news on this. Here i mean this. This is bad, like nobody wants to wake up to this.

I don't even know where that's a picture of. I mean it's a picture from shutterstock uh, but anyway, this is. This is not great right. U.S orders, family members of embassy staff to leave ukraine.

You know why do i feel like this is a picture of of call of duty. You know with like, like you, you in the snow environments you you always put on the white clothing, it's terrible uh. The state department on sunday said that it has ordered family members of us embassy personnel and give is no is that cute? No, this isn't is that, is that how you say kiev? No, this is some it is. It is kiev, oh okay, okay, okay, all right, that's just the probably the ukrainian spelling anyway uh some people here saying it's fake propaganda.

I i it's possible kiev. Thank you. Stephen, the embassy will remain open for now. The state department also cited the possibility of russian military action.

Keeping its travel risk advisory at four um visa processing will continue. I think one of the interesting things is right here, uh biden, i mean it's the headline, whether you believe it or not, whether it's fake propaganda or not matters a little less than than the way the market will will react. Right biden weighs deploying thousands of troops to eastern europe and baltics, so i think it's worth just throwing up on them. The maps uh just like baltics, so look at where the baltics are relative to russia.

You can see that here uh on this right, one so you're bordering and like latvia, for example, is a member of nato and you're literally right next to russia right. So there's there's always this! This talk about! Oh, you know ukraine can't be in nato because it's right next to russia, uh yeah. It can be because now ukraine's probably not going to join anytime soon, but you know you've got here. No.

I just want to tag russia here, really quick, where's where's. The word russia, my gosh, it's way up here there we go so usually, if you click it, it outlines it. That's not doing that russia, okay, maybe i'm losing my mind. I was hoping it would throw up the border for me, but that's okay.

You can see the border right here, this grey line, but anyway uh. So here's, here's, russia and uh laffy is a nato member. What about uh? I don't know estonia, nato, oh estonia became a member of nato in 2004.. Yeah wow, that's crazy, yeah, so so you've got nato members right here and then they're, really the the dramas uh happening here.

Probably along this border yeah, that's terrible anyway. Biden weighs deploying thousands of troops to eastern europe and baltics. President biden is considering deploying several thousand u.s troops: what from afghanistan? Sorry as well as warships and aircraft to nato allies in the baltics and eastern europe warships? Where are you gon na put the warships up here? I guess so yeah. I guess you could put them along here, because you've got st petersburg over here, uh and - and so i suppose the theory would be.

If you had warship support here, you could launch aircraft or missiles, okay, geez man, it's too early for this crap. The move would signal a major pivot for the biden administration, which, up until recently, was taking a restrained stance on ukraine out of fear of provoking russia into invading. But as president putin has ramped up his threatening actions towards the ukraine and talks between america and russian officials have failed to discourage him. The administration is now moving away from the do not provoke strategy.

Can i do one thing here? Can i just throw this up really quickly? While we talk about putin um, i i think this is appropriate. I i don't know. Can somebody tell me if this is inappropriate? I think it's appropriate here we go all right. So while we talk about putin, this is what we need to do: uh, okay, there we go all right, so biden is expected to make a decision early this week.

He is weighing the build up, as russia has escalated, its menacing posture against the ukraine, including amassing holy crap. I did not know that a hundred thousand troops on the border - oh my gosh dude, a hundred thousand troops. How many? What was like the peak that we had deployed to afghanistan at one point like when we operation iraqi freedom? Let's try that one uh. I want to see how many troops we sent to iran.

Oh my gosh folks, look at this operation. Iraqi freedom was 67 700 boots on the ground with 15 000 navy personnel. If i add that together, that's 82 000 troops for operation iraqi freedom, okay, apparently putin has uh more than a hundred thousand troops on the border holy crap. So steven here says i just read one to 5k, not 100k.

With that uh. I think biden's thinking one to 5k. I think russia has a hundred k. That's crazy! Oh my gosh! That's insane! Uh! On saturday, britain accused moscow of developing plans to install a pro-russian leader in ukraine, even uh i mean this is going to be.

This is going to end up being like uh. It could be - and i hope not, but it could end up being something like like a blitzkrieg honestly uh. If you remember world war ii, germany invading poland, where it was just kind of just like roll, the tanks in and within 48 hours was over honestly to some degree, it was kind of what happened with the taliban in afghanistan. Just like we're rolling in okay we've taken over, i mean, i hope not.

I i really and i'm not a military expert. I just want to be crystal clear about that yeah anyway. So far, none of the military operations uh being considered include deploying additional american troops to ukraine itself. Biden has made it clear that he is loathed to enter another conflict following america's painful exit of afghanistan right uh, but recently warned that the united states could throw its weight behind a ukrainian insurgency should putin invade.

Oh, my gosh. The discussions come as the state department ordered all family members of the embassy. To leave i mean like. Let me, let me ask you this: how would you feel if you were working at the embassy in kiev or keith, i i i'm never gon na get this one right and uh and then they're like hey um, your wife and kids send them on a plane.

You know what women and children first please get on the lifeboat like the titanic. That doesn't feel good. Meanwhile, you got a putin. Okay, that's too much! That's too much! That's too much putin! Okay! There we go.

I've got to get rid of this now. Uh jeez man, my customer, has son in the army, stated his son was getting deployed to ukrainian front for those paying attention since before yesterday. It's obvious this is happening. Wow are you kevin? Are you talking about the us army or or which army i'm assuming ukrainian? But i just want to be clear.

I live in sweden and they are also sending troops to the baltic sea holy crap uh near gatlin got none that that's in sweden, because russian battleships are close. Are you freaking kidding me got ned? How am i supposed to go land? Okay, okay, sorry, um? Okay, so here oops sorry, i got to clean up this desktop. This is kind of killing me, but in case you're wondering what one of these is. Somebody asked me any plans for the weekend, and this is what i put in discord.

I don't know i just i just hate having a little messy desktop here. Let's just all right there we go uh, okay, so that's quite interesting, so goblins right here. Okay, that's that is really interesting, see because i was thinking that this would be the area to deploy in uh for u.s military because they're they potentially to back up nato allies here, but uh. But this makes sense.

But, oh my gosh, are you serious sweden wow? Anyone from in the ukraine in the chat, uh, you know somebody was in uh or someone in the course member discord was talking about which i have up somebody the course member discord was talking about how they live in the baltics and they're they're nervous about uh, Possibly having to leave uh, you know yeah. I don't want to hear about being bred for war. Let's see here, your video lives forever on my son's ipad. Oh no, are you serious? Okay? I honestly, i did not know that and i don't want to at all ever come across as echoing what putin said and for me to call it something that would be like a blitzkrieg and apparently putin said that i am sorry that was very unintentional.

I i will be transparent. I kind of under uh evaluated the severity of uh this ukrainian threat to markets uh. When will people like saki be in the trenches of ukraine? It's easy to call for war when it's other people's kids. That's a good point.

My younger brother is in the u.s army. He has gotten word to get your gear and beer be ready. They are restricted to a 30 minute radius of base. He slipped friday and said he was packing to be ready, wow.

I i just. I hope it's all. Just fear, i hope it's all just fear-mongering and what yes? This is true. I said five percent - i i was wrong about that.

There was a terror attack in germany, heidelberg, really, that's terrible. I've been to heidelberg, oh wow, gunman dead after shooting at university of heidelberg in germany, come on man, a lone gunman injured and that's actually rare in germany, a gunman uh. You usually it's like i hate to say it was like lorries or other crazy things. A lone gunman injured several people in a shooting in an auditorium at the university of heidelberg in southwest germany, wow, that's horrible young man, he was dead.

Uh cannot determine a motive. This is a breaking story. That's terrible! Gosh come on man what's happening to a freaking world. It just makes you want to stay inside um, loose lips, sink ships, white house briefing at 11, 30.

uh that okay yeah we got ta cover that hold on. Let me look at that is that um? Let me verify quickly: you can go to c-span and usually see the uh president's schedule of public events in c-span. Let's see here, i don't have that yet i don't i i believe you, but i don't. I don't see that on the itinerary yet, but they they could be late on that.

Maybe that was just announced or something, but this is obviously something to pay attention to uh all right people forget kim jong-un and trump drama. You mean rocket man, sorry uh! You know we got uh max had his birthday party yesterday and we got him a uh, a rocket ship. As a pinata um. I thought it was bittersweet, seeing max destroy the rocket ship.

Let me just say all right anyway: uh, okay, so uh, hmm uh yeah. Somebody mentioned that about nano dimension and their market cap actually being less than their cash on hand. That i think, is very, very interesting. We're gon na look at that in just a second.

It doesn't mean they can't still sell down more, but you know what? Let's look at it right now: nano dimensions, uh, industrial relations kim, is probably watching this. I you know i can never go to north korea or china. I'm sorry, it's probably not going to work unless i've just gotten to the effet stage. I don't think i'm going to get there at any point time soon: okay, sec filings, please i could just go to the uh scc website.

But oh there we go okay, q3 report from november, all right. So here's nanodimension - i i'm not a big fan of 3d printing fyi. I think it's it's great for one-offs and tests, but i i don't actually think it's spectacular for um. What's it called um mass production, which is the opposite of what the ceo says anyway, holy crap? How do they have 1.1 billion dollars? Are you kidding me? Oh my gosh.

They have like no liabilities. I will say the guy is shrewd. You know how they have. This much money.

Well, actually something happened over the last year uh, but but one other thing, and actually i think i know what it is. This uh ceo is very, very, very smart. You know why, because when nano dimension became a meme, this ceo, every freaking opportunity raise money, raise money, raise money, dilute shareholders, dilute dilute dilute to loot over and over and over again and everybody in the meme community hated it they're like what the hell man every Time it goes up this guy dilutes and i have to say in hindsight probably the smartest damn thing the guy could have done. He knew the momentum.

Movement was temporary, look at the nano dimension stock ndm, he knew it was temporary and he propped their balance sheet up with a billion dollars holy sh. Look at this ran to 18 yeah. This is it. This is when he was.

This was when the movement was. Look at that from october 2020 to february of 2021 and then look at this this statement here. The last cash balance was 2020 september 30th right here. Oh my gosh! Oh my gosh! Look at it! During the momentum movement.

They literally went from 42 million on their balance sheets folks right here right here at the bottom. They had 42 million dollars by december they had 600 million dollars and today they have 1.2 billion. What wow this this is like okay hold on, and is he like? Israeli or what is he uh, whoever it doesn't really matter what he is, i'm just trying to remember i mean he's either persian or israeli, or something like that, whoever he is freaking brilliant, ceo of nano dimension, yo, i've stern. Why does that sounds more? Like turkish uh, yoav stern, where is this guy from? I don't know why it matters? I'm very curious, though.

Oh somebody says he's israeli okay. That makes sense uh from the name. Okay, all right anyway, brilliant brilliant freaking, guy, uh yeah, it's you're right. It is more! Jewish than it is uh than it is um turkish, but anyway i was close.

I got middle east okay, i was close, but anyway all i could say is freaking brilliant. That's it like hands down. This guy gets the smartest ceo award of the last year, and nobody freaking gives this guy credit absolute freaking, brilliant, all right enough fawning over no dimension. Let's go see what their market cap is really quick.

What the hell look at it, look at it, their their market cap is, it doesn't make sense their market and that's what's crazy about this market is is uh to some degree. The market doesn't make sense. 806 million dollars is the market cap. They have almost 1.4 billion dollars in current assets.

Smart! No! Actually, i don't think i don't think what he did is manipulation if anything, a momentum movement is manipulation. Uh of of of like the nano dimension stock price right, because at no point should nano dimension have have been worth that you know what it was right and the ceo is like fine. If y'all gon na do that, i will do what's best for the company. Uh, you know i never invested in nano, because i i personally think it's just it's not good uh, like 3d printing.

Well, i already explained why i don't like 3d printing. You can rewind a little bit if you want to see why i don't like it uh, because they have access russia. Somebody here says russia can't send naval forces from one warm water port that they have, because access to the open ocean is controlled by u.s allies. Ancient history, but russia sent their forces from saint petersburg, had to go around africa when they finally made it to japan, japan crushed them.

The troops sent through serbia also got crushed. It's super difficult for russia to send troops out of anywhere due to their geography, but that same geography protects them. That's very interesting. Thank you for sharing that in the uh course.

Member chat here, um my birthday's in four days. By the way, i will no longer be in my twenties in four days. It's really weird. I asked max if he was happy that he turned four and he's like no, i want to be three forever.

Oh all, right, let's see how some other things are moving here. Okay, so hud 8 from when we last checked has uh declined. Again. It is now down to uh down 16 folks and uh.

It is at four dollars and five cents or 50 cents. You've got coinbase holding on to about that 170 level. Oh, my gosh matterport is now at 9.40. Amc is at 16 16.45 uh.

That is true don. He was smart. His moves created long-term value for shareholders. That cash should create a floor value.

Yes, he could buy back shares. I agree with you. I completely agree with that that that would be. I think i would almost be the fair thing to do.

Oh arnold schwarze, what's with the news today, arnold schwarzenegger involved in four vehicle crash in brentwood, but that sounds like that was yesterday around 4 30. anyway. Hope he's all right. All right, i'm sure, he'll be back anyway, so shift technologies down right now to a dollar and 80 cents neo.

Oh my gosh neil's at 25 dollars, oh whoa, oh my gosh. I thought i thought under 30 was was a bargain. I didn't buy it, but i just looked at it: i'm like oh, my gosh neo under 30, again corsair gaming, 6.4 percent. Ah, it's a bloodbath! Oh my gosh, expi 23.

dude tesla, where what tesla's at what is this 893 893 for tesla? What's green, just macy's yeah, basically macy's purple well purple's been a dog uh. It also looks like we're seeing a little bit of a continuous, oh, my gosh ethereum's at 2164. whoa. Look at that! Look at that ride on that 25 resistance line here.

People still don't believe my ta, the elephant in the room. Yeah pro shares ultra the vix up 12 in pre-market yeah dude fix, has been one hell of a of an investment. Oh my gosh, 14, oh man. Oh my gosh um, let's see here so we are at uh wow.

On the seven day chart. We are down 33 on ethereum down 22 on bitcoin on the seven days here, whole 37 on cardano somebody says game over. If this doesn't hold. What is what what stock is that? What's? Yes, oh is this: the are you looking at the spy 4311.

Somebody just posted this. Let me look at the spx. Another weeble doesn't show that anyway i'll just go spy. Oh, oh, oh! Look at that! We're breaking the 200-day moving average on the spy.

Now that is worse than what we saw before the election holy smokers. Look at this hold on the last time we dropped below the 200 was the crash of 18. When we ran on rates. Oh, oh wow, a crash of 18 broke the 200 day march of 2020 broke the 200 day.

Nothing in this recovery has broken the 200 day, with the exception of today. Oh no, i don't think weed maps is crazy. Um, i don't know about their valuation, but i actually thought their business model was good. The problem is a lot of people were betting on cannabis.

Expecting that joe biden would do something just let that sentence sink in for a moment. I'm sorry that just defended probably 50 percent of people, but i said it i'm sorry, i'm just gon na go back to my sticks now, so all right! Let's let let me let me go back here. I just want to see what what the market talk is. Uh, the good news is uh league is out for runescape if anybody is playing league.

I really wish i was like this is painful. Somebody says lmao. You offended like three percent with the biting joke. Oh that's! Bad! Stop! Oh my gosh! The jokes are bad.

All right, uh, okay, okay um, so i'm gon na read out a little bit here: wreckage in speculative tech land continued on friday. Well, today, it's not friday. Today's monday uh, the sell-off, has been worsening lately and getting a lot of attention, but the truth is that the market boom has been fading for a long time almost a year. Now, in fact, much of the crypto meme stuff peaked last february and has been steadily down ever since then.

This is apparently born in the performance of retail traders. Okay, i literally hate to say this, but i have purposely been watching retail trading data and uh retail everywhere. Retail is not is plummeting and it's particularly in small caps and in um. What's it called uh? Well, small caps are not seeing retail but then also anything that was meme or momentum.

So that's that's not terribly inaccurate uh. We are getting a bounce on the s. P, 500 right now, uh! This is honestly insane again. I i at this point.

I think people are just not going to believe me, but i've. I've always had this 430 level, maybe not always, but at least for the last six months have had this 430 line here drawn on the s p 500, and we literally just bounced off 4 30. 58., like you, you can't make this up. The ta freaking works.

So dear all people who say uh, oh, if you draw enough lines the ta works. Can we please just zoom out for a moment and tell me all the lines that i have drawn here on the s p 500. I literally have two one: is a crappy purple line that i don't really believe in uh, but but could have a soft bounce off and then the other one is the 430 line, and it's like: are you freaking kidding me uh yeah? That is insane. That is insane uh, yeah btc.

Somebody here says: wow btc great store value; yeah no uh btc is uh a uh speculative uh uh speculative uh investment yeah. I i don't think it's a store of value and i don't anymore think it's an inflation hedge. I do think you can make money off of it: uh trading it somebody's asking how i can be sad when i don't have money in well, because i just lost money. This morning i got stopped out of my btc trade.

So, like you know, i had a trade and i lost money. You know so i'm not you're, not alone. If you lost money today, you know um, i did too so uh. We just have to be really really careful in this market, because every rally's a lie like every little rally, i see, is just a lie: uh and that's a very jaded pov.

But it's been, it's been eight weeks of every rally being a lie and, quite frankly, what i was just reading from the suits about like this is kind of they're. I mean they're, basically saying kevin. This has been happening since february, they're, not wrong. It's been a very you know, i mean unless you were like just invested in passive index funds, which i i'm not gon na poop on uh they've done well.

I don't think they'll continue to do well, but they've done well uh. You know it's. It's been tough, like the ride in tech has been, has been uh white knuckle, it's been quite white, knuckle all right. Let me see what else the suits are saying.

Oh god, futures deep in slide as risk off accelerates, rising geopolitical concerns as russia, ukraine, tensions escalate. Big tech firms from alphabet to microsoft are falling ahead of the bell, while wti crude is down as well, and crypto losses are deepening, eyes are on tech earnings. Later this week, the new york times reported that president biden wow, it's actually the nyt who broke the story. I didn't know they broke it uh.

That biden is weighing deploying troops to eastern europe and the baltics yeah. That's that's gon na include somewhere around up to 5 000 troops. For those of you just now joining we've kind of gone through this in relative detail earlier, but uh, a 5 000 troop deployment to the baltics to uh to beef up nato allies which do border russia uh. What is what is very unnerving to me is that uh, according to the new york times, okay, just pause to let that sink in for a moment, new york times so there's, maybe a slight little grain of salt.

I'm not going to go into this anyway. Uh, a hundred thousand troops are deployed by russians which, when, when about 20 minutes ago, we compared the troop deployment uh by america of operation iraqi freedom. We had 67 000 foot soldiers plus 15 000 uh naval troops. That is less than what russia allegedly has uh uh sitting next to the ukraine.

That is insane. That is absolutely insane uh. Okay, so it looks like the retail is moving up like macy's, kohl's and nordstrom, because there's talk about a kohl's takeover. I i briefly saw some news of that this weekend, but i didn't pay attention to it because i'm just not really involved in those stocks.

But let me see if i can understand this a little bit more. Okay, so kohl's, okay, take over okay cole shares surge as takeover offers emerge from suitors, including sycamore sycamore is willing to pay 65 dollars per share for kohl's. Oh my gosh, that's a 39 premium to the 46 dollars and 84 cents wow. I think we're going to see more of these mergers and acquisitions as prices fall.

No damn. Yes, this just just a crap crappy market other than those few okay uh anyway, geopolitics aren't the uh geopolitics. Politics aren't the only thing weighing on equities. Another bearish call for u.s stocks came earlier from morgan stanley.

Oh okay, let me look at this. Bearish call. Okay. Here we go uh one after another stock market bears say their calls have finally been vindicated.

Oh okay, so these are bears more, so take it with a great assault. Morgan stanley's, michael wilson, is the latest to claim his warnings were spot on the strategist, who has long been a skeptic of the rally that pushed the u.s equities to successive records, says monday that january's rut fits nicely with his so-called fire and ice narrative, according to Which markets were set for a drawdown amid tighter monetary policy and decelerating growth? If anything, the retreat has further to go wilson and his colleagues wrote in a note, borrowing against the game of thrones uh, borrowing against or borrowing from game of thrones to warm that winter is here? Oh great, you know there was another goldman note uh from another goldman analyst this morning. It may have been actually this weekend, but the goldman analyst noted that uh. This is not the beginning of a week's rotation.

This is the days of a multi-quarter rotation that was not great uh, not good, or could sanctions stop russia who knows yeah bitcoin gives a worrying read on risk appetite declines in u.s stock futures appear to have slowed in monday's session. That could tempt some to believe that sentiment has improved in the near term, but bitcoin is sending a worrying signal. It's down nearly five percent, it's down. Obviously more now this was this was from about three hours ago.

That's interesting, uh, jeez man disaster. All right. Let's go back to the sticks here. We've got about six minutes to go to the open, all right, ray trader signal.

Doubts on fed writing to their oh see, there's a lot. A lot of people on twitter this weekend are like. Oh, don't worry, the fed will see that the market's falling and uh and they'll uh. You know they'll come to the rescue well earlier in this live stream, and - and i was talking to course members about this as well - yeah, but anyway, uh the the federal reserve in their last minutes, made it excessively clear that one of the big risks to our Financial system are excessive valuations and the fact that equity prices continue to increase and that right now we have very high risk appetites and they actually see that as a as a negative catalyst that you don't want to.

You don't want to create a bubble right. You kind of want to stop a bubble before uh you, you create a bubble. Some john david here uh wants. John david, wants you to sign up for my courses using the coupon code linked down below uh, where which the coupon expires january 28th.

So, thank you. John david for donating five dollars to say that i'm just kidding that is like totally the opposite of what john david said. John david actually says: you're 100 wrong. The market will turn green after powell talks and you're spreading fun, causing people to pay for it.

Sorry, dude um, i don't believe it. I don't believe it. I don't. I do not think j j-power's coming to your rescue.

I don't think so uh when this is what the fed is talking about. I do not believe they are coming to your rescue uh. You know it's it's literally in black white, yellow, green and red right here in front of you um anyway, so uh the suits are saying right here: interest rate markets remain resolute in anticipating that the federal reserve will plow on with increasing borrowing costs, even as riskier Assets, tumble globally and geopolitical discord, ramps up precipitous declines in u.s stocks and other risk assets have historically given pause to policy makers, giving rise to the notion of the so-called fed put for american equities. But this time around vets on benchmark hikes this year are intact.

Even amid the current tumble, which has seen the technology heavy nasdaq slump, 12, so, in other words, the rate markets do not believe that uh john david john, is correct. What must it be like to have three first names? It's kind of cool. I wonder if you'd go for, like the nickname, you know like uh jdj. I don't like that that much yeah anyway, all right uh, all right, let's see what what's going on so uh in terms of indices.

I am trusting this a little bit more than the cnbc industry. Now this is the investing.com app hashtag, not sponge sponsored oh gosh. My shoulders are killing me. I actually went to the gym.

Deadlifts squats shoulders hurt anyway uh dow down one percent s p down. One point: four: one percent nasdaq one point: six four percent, not as bad as what we've seen before slight itty bitty little bit of a recovery there, but let's see how individual stocks are feeling, and i think this open is going to be very fascinating uh. I think i've answered this like 17 times, but i'll answer it again. I was not margin called or forced to sell, never margin called no margin call uh.

I do think reducing margin is a very smart idea, though all right, okay, so heidi's no longer down 16. It's only down 15 and a half i don't know if that's any consolation. Dwack is down. Nine percent.

Tattooed chef is at 11 44.. I mean we got a crapload of stuff down. In that seven, eight nine percent range rivian's down six point: nine. It's at sixty dollars matter ports at nine, sixty five, that's actually a little bit better than the 940.

We saw so we've seen a little bit of a recovery here in just about the last 10 minutes, uh tesla also whoa. Look: i've got this 880 line drawn over here, a little bit of a recovery off of that uh. It did recover about five five minutes before that, though uh s p tr trying to trying to recover. Maybe i look, i hope it rallies at the open uh.

I really do because i i think the pain is is uh is excessive, but uh i mean look at this. Google is down 3.2, oh, that's, actually, not good, for the s p potentially rallying google is is rotating down towards the open apple is mixed. What about msft, it's microsoft, yeah, it's rotating down as well, see if it rallies it's gon na trigger sales. I agree with you.

I agree with you if it rallies it's gon na trigger sales. Well, let's, let's see what happens. Oh gosh, 10 seconds. Oh, this is stressful to save ukraine.

No we're not, but the question is what the fallout is. Things occur as a result of the sanctions and the movement of gas and the economic toll to europe and all those kinds of issues. Wait. I mean the oil, the 150 and look.

I i think oil goes. I've been saying that you didn't need this. It's taking down right now, we'll see what happens. This is the spy uh look at this this.

This crap is like 80 to 90 red. While we see the sticks mature, i do want to just quickly respond to this question here. Do you have a response to jeremy's video on me? Yes, in fact i mentioned this yesterday. I also called jeremy yesterday uh.

I completely respect his video. I i have nothing bad to say about it and i think he makes very valid points he's not, and i i clarified this with him - he's not correct about and a lot of people have this issue he's he's not correct about the bill. Ackman thing, i think the disgusting thing about bill ackman is going on cnbc and talking crap about the market, while not saying you're, 1.2 billion short. He went on cnbc pretending to be buying the dip.

He was buying the dip, but he was buying the dip with profits from shorts that he still had open right. That, i think, is scummy. I i want to do everything in my power to be always as crystal clear as you. So the point where i've even updated - my twitter bio to say i'm five percent short the market like i just i just never want somebody to think that uh uh, like i'm, i'm short and i'm not telling you i.

I always want to disclose that.