Hey guys, it's sasha and in this video i'm going to tell you exactly why tesla stock is set for a killer year in 2022 in numbers now, tesla stock just had the biggest daily rise ever yesterday, going up by 13.5 in one day with a share price. Closing just shy of 1200 and the reason for this was the announcement, the tesla smashed, the q4 delivering numbers with 308 600 cars, which is 28 more than just the previous quarter, and the market immediately reacted setting the share price up by 143 in one day. Who could possibly have predicted this right? So if tesla did hit 290 000 cars, that would be a 22 increase quarter and quarter that is way way bigger than any recent quarterly increase. So if that did happen, i think the stock market would get very excited about what numbers will look like when the austin and berlin factories open up and what 2022 is going to look like.

I have made three calls in total during the last year that covered short-term outcomes based on catalysts. I am a long-term investor, so i usually do not care at all about short-term stuff. I ignore it 99.9 of the time, but sometimes you see a huge mismatch between what you are seeing and what the market seems to be seeing and when i see a really big mismatch, i go and make one of these calls. So here are the three calls that i made last year.

First, i put out a video on the 9th of september, saying that tesla's share price is about to explode tesla's share price. When i made that video was 754 and i shared a lot of the insight around margins going up a bunch of other stuff uh, the factors that i thought would make the share price go up very quickly. Within two months. Tesla's share price went up to 1230.

63. Up from when i made the video, then, on the 25th of october i published a video saying that lucid motor stock was also about to take off the share price for lucid. When i made the video was 24.11 and less than one month later, that share price went up to 55. There were some major catalysts with deliveries clearly starting within days and to me that movement seemed very obvious, which is why i made the video and then on the 23rd of november.

I made a video saying that tesla stock is going to jump again and i said that i expected a significant share price increase by the end of january and two videos that i made within the space of a week. The share price. When i made the video was one thousand one hundred nine dollars and so far we're up eight point, two percent in just over a month, and we have q4 earnings coming up and gave you texas, probably opening up in the next couple of days. So i think that we're gon na be in for a few very interesting movements.

Yet now i got very lucky, obviously, in 2021, with three out of three calls coming in, but now the tesla share price has jumped back to 1200. The mood has once again shifted now. People are again thinking that it is now too late to come to the party. The price just went up 13, so you've missed the boat.

You were completely way too late and you might as well beat up yourself about it. Instead of just thinking rationally, but here is my take - we haven't seen nothing yet because tesla stock in 2022 is going to be absolutely bonkers and in this video i'm going to tell you exactly why that is just before. I do remember that i am just a random guy on youtube and i am not your financial advisor. Please make sure that you do your own research, your own analysis.

I am just here sharing mine with you and i may well be completely wrong. You can't just be lucky every single time right. Well, first up we have giga texas. That apparently is going to start production in the next few days, having missed the end of q4 as the deadline.

Giga taxes are being built in phases and this factory is going to take years before it gets anywhere near its full potential. In case you're wondering what the full potential of giga texas is look at the size of giga shanghai on the right of this chart. This factory apparently made 70 000 cars in december somewhere around. That will know the exact figures in a few days time.

So that's roughly 840 000 cars per year and they are building an extension to that factory in the next four months that should increase the production output even further. So let's say at full pace with that extension. The shanghai factory makes about 1 million cars per year. Now go and look at the size of the giga berlin factory.

It's way way bigger and eventually they will overcome german bureaucracy, probably with paperwork and may well open in a few weeks. Time now go and look on the left-hand side at texas. Just look at the size of the texas park compared to shanghai or berlin, or anything else: it's 2, 000 acres and then the few months after this graphic was produced, tesla went and bought another 381 acres of land next to it, and then in november we heard That tesla apparently may have bought another 300 to 600 acres across the colorado river. So texas is going to be big.

We're talking a few million cars per year. Big so let's say texas is going to make 4 million cars at full capacity. Berlin should easily scale to 2 million, then add on fremont and shanghai, assume that they ramp a little bit from where they are including the extension we're talking 8 million cars per year from tesla without building any new factories building any new sites during 2022. We're going to see these factories in berlin and texas slowly ramp up and the more they ramp up the more this will become obvious to analysts, who are you know a bit slow on the uptake, because some of the analysts are still saying they don't understand how Tesla is going to ramp production.

Just in the last few days, we've seen people going cnbc and say that they still haven't got to the texas and berlin factories in their models and when they realize that tesla already has factories that can produce as many cars as the biggest car makers in the World today are producing cars that make several times more margin than any of those other car manufacturers and can earn huge subscription revenues after the car is sold in the future. Then the stock market might wake up and share price for tesla might reap some major benefits. Giga shanghai have made 135 000 cars in the first year of operating after the factory launch, with the all the experience uh two more years of development, bigger, better newer factories in berlin and austin. We are probably likely to get more production during 2022 than that - probably ramping to 20 000 per month relatively quickly, perhaps in q2 or q3 of this year, and that is going to show up in a really big way in revenue and profit numbers.

Giga berlin will mean that european buyers do not have to buy their cars shipped from china, and eu countries will also avoid import duty. This will mean the tesla can price cars with even higher margins. Tesla made 238 000 cars in q3 last year, q3. This year in 2022 is likely to break 500 000 cars, assuming the shanghai extension gives a slight boost and the two new factories ramp up to just 20 000 cars per month, and i will be updating my model raising my 2022 production numbers from 1.6 to 1.8 Million cars i'll be sharing all of that with the channel members and patreons in the discord in the next few days, then we have the 4680 sales, which are apparently already being scaled reasonably fast at tesla's cater road facility and production is eventually going to make its Way to the factory, so they don't have to be shipped once these arrive.

We're talking even more improvements on margin due to lower production cost due to bringing more of the production of the batteries in-house and also the improvements in efficiency, which means you need less batteries. For the same level of range, then we have the small matter of the semi and the cyber truck both of these are scheduled for late this year in 2022. Although with the delay in the new factories opening up and the risks around the 4680 production and all the unknowns for the rest of the year, it is very possible that both will be pushed into 2023.. The cyber truck is addressing the suv and the pickup markets, which have been the fastest growing car segment over the past decade.

So if you thought it was exciting with what the model 3 and model y have been doing, this could be even more interesting. Yet in the u.s, ford and other car makers sell absolutely insane numbers hundreds and hundreds of thousands, each of suvs and pickup trucks. So the moment we start production and deliveries of the cyber truck. Whenever that happens, i think wall street analysts are going to be again very, very surprising.

Here's the thing, even though the existing factories probably have the capacity for 8 million cars per year. I have a feeling that elon musk isn't done quite yet. Tesla announced new factory sites in berlin and austin in their q2 earnings score in july of 2020, and the shanghai factory only launched production in december 2019. So they didn't hang about.

That was only about seven months, and these new factories are a lot bigger and will take longer to ramp up. So perhaps they don't need to announce quite as quickly this time around, but it is very possible that tesla will announce new factory sites in the second half of the year. It will then take 18 months or two years to complete the factories based on the last three that they have built, so we're probably looking at summer 2024 for those to open. But this time around, we have a lot of evidence of what happens when tesla announces a new factory things that we didn't really have last time.

This happened evidenced the tune of 850 000 cars per year production rate in shanghai within two years of the factory opening in china and by the time this announcement is made. If it happens, berlin and austin will most probably already be showing an even faster ramp and if you're a tesla shareholder, like me, 2022 is said to be an insane year and i am really really looking forward to it. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.