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Tesla Another a rough, rough morning. at least that's how things are starting. Let's go ahead and talk about all the things that are going on Tesla and my first impressions of full self driving. So in this video, we're going to talk about 4680 production.

We'll talk about Neo Shanghai coveted lockdowns in China We'll talk about Elon's shift in his behavior and then we'll talk about FSD So we've got a lot to cover. Let's hit it. Okay, so first 4680 production. This is actually really good news.

So if a Tesla has finally started providing a little bit more updates into some of the good news that's going on at Tesla and I think folks are completely blinded by how impactful these structural battery packs of the 4680 cells are going to be. These cells are not only expected to charge substantially faster, last substantially longer, be a lot safer, and be less expensive for Tesla to produce, but they are expected to be the core of the Tesla cyber truck, providing it potentially a substantially longer range. And there are now rumors of potentially a faster supercharging Network like a super supercharging Network or probably something more like a supercharger V2 or some kind of better name. But anyway, that could charge the Tesla cyber truck even faster because if you have a lot of battery in a lot of range, you don't want that supercharger stall.

Well, basically bogged down by cyber trucks all day long. you got to keep people moving so people can get charges. And so there's a rumor about a potential V2 supercharger coming out. Anyway, these 4680 fees are expected at this point to be in production at a rate of uh, well, let's see.

in the last seven days, they announced they did 868 000 cells, enough for 1 000 Vehicles if all of these exclusively went into cyber trucks. Depending on what size of vehicle they're talking about, maybe it's only 500 cyber trucks, right? Again, depends on the Range they're talking about here. if they're comparing, say, model wise to cybers. Uh, let's say there are a thousand cyber trucks though.

that would still be enough for 52 000 cyber trucks the first year and we expect that production to really go into effect this year for the Cyber truck, which will be a pretty big game changing Catalyst for Teslas And so finally, enter the sort of rugged Market if you will that's going to be big. not only for construction, but people who like Towing people who like camping. It's going to be pretty dang incredible. unfortunately.

In the meantime, we have some very depressing short-term news such as Neo cutting their delivery guidance for Q4 due to the disaster that is going on in China Neo obviously sells vehicles in China so they give us a nice leading indicator of what to expect when they provide a guidance cuts for China and remember Tesla to sell a lot of vehicles in China as well. Neo's guidance went from a production guidance and delivery guidance of 43 000 vehicles to 48 000 vehicles in just one quarter. It's actually pretty good production. from Neo That's not bad.

It's a midpoint of about 45.5 000 vehicles in just a quarter. They reduce that to 38.5 to 39 5 000. Vehicles Expected, that's a midpoint of about 39 000 instead of 45.5 which basically represents a 16.3 percent drop in Q4 Outlook That's not good and that is definitely Weighing on Tesla sales and a lot of this is happening because of covet in China Some of these things are absolutely ridiculous, but what's not ridiculous is the fact that for 2 900 bucks you could Shadow me for a day and fly with me on my private chat as we go look at real estate. Take a look at the link down below.

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So regarding Shanghai All right. So the there was a rumor that Shanghai was going to shut down on the 25th through the end of December It looks like Shanghai actually ended up being shut down on the 24th and so this led to some suggestions that wow, Tesla's letting everybody go home early. Things must be really slow. Uh, and now Tesla China has of course responded and said well, this isn't completely accurate, but they're not exactly the best at PR So hence stock down.

No. This also you know, comes in addition to the fact that in January Tesla Shanghai will have an extended product shutdown or production shutdown. Keep in mind Tesla Shanghai is the most inexpensive, most efficient, and uh, most producing or top producing gigafactory for Tesla. So it's a big deal at least until Berlin and Austin fully ramp and Fremont continue to use its build out.

although uh, what you're paying in in uh, Tesla Uh, California for cars is a lot more expensive than what you're paying in Tesla China But anyway, the production shutdown is expected to run from January. Well, from January 19th through January 31st. That means we'll only actually see production from about January 3rd to January 19th. That's uh, that's only about 17 days in January.

That's almost a 50 shutdown if you consider the days that we're going to be down here in December. We've got almost a total of well, about three-fourths of a month of a shutdown for Tesla's most productive. Factory. So a little bit of a concern here, especially since the public Chinese New Year holiday is technically from January 21st to the 27th.

So the fact that Tesla's going to be shut down from the 19th through the 31st. Four more days to here to there is a little bit concerning for some regarding production in China now. In Fairness, it's worth noting that less people are buying cars in China right now because of, well, covet. It's a complete disaster right now now.

Part of that is actually because China is lifting a substantial amount of their coveted restrictions. They actually just started removing their uh, inbound traveler quarantine requirements, which will be fully lifted on January 8th after three years of almost zero covet policies. They'll also begin processing Visa applications again. They've downgraded the management of Kovid, which originally allowed them to implement those really restrictive Uh policies and lockdowns in China which have been become so famous for being an example of authoritarian government.

And they've changed the name of Uh of of the virus from the new coronavirus pneumonia to new coronavirus infections. This all of these changes are now uh, sort of an Abrupt U-turn making it easier for people to actually conduct business and live in China At the same time, China is also not going to publish a daily uh, covet surveillance anymore. However, we've got plenty of insights into Coroner's offices uh, you know where dead people go and hospitals being severely understaffed. Not enough fever medication so people are staying home longer and sicker longer.

The peak of this coveted surge is expected to be in January Manufacturing Tech Hub Gonna butcher this one XI Jang Province, which is also known as iPhone city is seeing 1 million coveted cases a day in just one city that's expected to double in about two weeks from now, which puts us around January 10th Activity is dropping everywhere. Retail sales, shops, restaurants down 18 Subway Ridership is down 70 percent below its 2019 levels. Factory worker uh, production, export production, car sales, real estate sales everything is plummeting because everyone's sick. Daily seal production is down 3.4 percent.

Uh and Uh exports to South Korea are down 27 in just the first 20 days of the month. China's insured units for Tesla's last week, it came in at just 8915. Those are new insurance registrations that's down from 10 000 to 254 just last week. This is obviously clearly leading less Chinese to buy cars because everybody's freaking sick.

It makes complete and logical sense. And usually, and this is my opinion, what happens in situations like this is rather than having a pull forward effect. Which is kind of like when you have like a Black Friday sale, right? Let me give you an example: You do a Black Friday sale and you're like, hey, Black Friday Use the coupon link down below. You know, get get your programs on building your wealth and the educational programs and stocks real estate.

Black Friday sale. Okay, usually when you have a really, really big sale, you sell less product in the weeks thereafter because people who would have ordinarily bought in the weeks thereafter have pulled forward their demand to a Black Friday. Let's say in in that example, right, the same thing happens in, like solar sales or maybe even Tesla America Or everybody kind of rushes in at the end of the year, buys and then you have slower sales in January That's normal. that's called a pull forward.

Well, in my opinion, what's happening with Covid is you're actually not destroying demand because everyone's car sales are going down right Neo's Car Sales Bentley Car sales Tesla's car sales. This is not a Tesla like loss of of sales. this is a Tesla delay of sales. It is a push back of sale sales and the stock dropping on on that is not actually in my opinion.

uh, fundamentally sound because sure, you're slightly delaying a little bit of your Revenue But it's kind of ridiculous since that revenue is still expected to come. If anything, you want to potentially consider betting on which company is going to be best when it comes to the rebound when Chinese actually start returning in droves to purchase Vehicles Once everybody's kind of gone through, you know the sickness. Okay, now that said, uh, let's consider inventory in America for example. It's kind of a fun little experiment to just hop around and explore what's going on with inventory in America You know it was just.

um, it's just about a week and a half ago that I posted uh, showing how how many vehicles it seemed like they were available in different areas. Uh, and uh, that is that is now vastly changed I mean this is 93004. there are no model threes available if I go to sort of the the south Florida ZIP code 33324 that's where I used to live I got nothing if I jump to model three I got nothing. look at that I could pop between the two I got nothing.

So uh, it's actually pretty incredible how it seems like all of this inventory is almost instantaneously uh, sold out So really, uh, quite quite. Uh, quite impressive. Uh, and and uh, hopefully we'll see some really good numbers there at the end of the year for Tesla Now I do want to touch on Elon uh, you know I Sent an email to Vanda Track and I'm a little bit disappointed because they uh, they gave the answer to the Wall Street Journal and didn't respond to my email. although usually they respond to my email uh, emails I you know I thought this was a little funny I'm a subscriber van to track their their research firm.

They're very expensive, but they're also very good. but anyway, they um, I I emailed them I go hey, can we get a number? How much has retail bought Tesla stock? Uh, so far this year in 2022 and then like three days later, the Wall Street Journal runs an article. According to Vander Track Retail has bought X dollars of Tesla throughout December 16, 2022 and I'm like anyway, so retail bought 15.2 billion dollars of Tesla Uh, now that contrasts to Elon Musk who has sold 23 billion dollars this year of Tesla That means retail needs to step up their buy and hoddle game by 50 just to break even from Elon Musk's selling pressure on the order book. How crazy is that? That's pretty wild, huh now I Do want to give Elon props? Uh, and and this is not to be political I have to give this disclaimer every time.

Uh, because every time I mention this, people think that that like I'm making a case as to whether or not somebody should or should not be prosecuted I'm not bestowing my opinion on politics here at all. I'm simply going to make a very clear point that when you're running an advertising business, you are putting your foot in your mouth when you make very politically blunt statements I explained this many times. I just have to be very careful about how I say because look I I try to be politically neutral on this channel. Everybody has some biases I really personally think I'm like a 5149 I think I'm so in the middle as much as you possibly can be.

Uh, but anyway. uh I think that Elon has changed recently, you know I've seen him on the Twitter spaces where he came in for an hour and spoke I've seen him on the all-in podcast did a great job on there. He's actually been very, very comforting. He's realized that there are you know mistakes that have been made and things could have been done better and and his goal is to stop making those mistakes and uh and try to basically fail fast and improve quickly.

And I appreciate that as an entrepreneur. I I feel the same way. But what I've also noticed is he's really toned down his rhetoric on Twitter now he'll still respond to you know things on Twitter that are potentially wild and outrageous like he responded to Dimitri Medvedev going oh, interesting thread. That doesn't mean he believes it.

Of course everybody freaked out over there. I'm okay with that. Like, please reply to people crossing the border. Bring attention to it, You know.

reply to delete Stream evident. Bring attention to it. Reply to anything you think is interesting. All for that.

All for that please I think it's absolutely wonderful and so I think he's been doing a fantastic job of of doing just that. Uh, however, when he said prosecute fauci uh, that was that was Peak stupid that was Peak stupid. The good news is, he's off of uh Peak stupid again. I'm not bestowing my opinion as to whether or not that should or should not happen.

It's it's just solely that you wouldn't. You should not say that as an advertise, as an advertising company, right? You just alienate 50 of Americans It's stupid. Uh, but but he's actually pulled back from that. He's not doing that anymore.

So I was worried that that was actually going to be like the start and now it's like he's found his new you know, uh, you know, more 60 70 on the right wing kind of tranche and it's like that's it. These are my homies now F everybody else on the other side but I was worried about that but I think he's really kind of rained himself back in and he's being a little bit more uh, neutral again which which is very, very comforting. He also talks about uh, the cost structure of Twitter having been improved three to four acts Twitter no longer being on the path to uh bankruptcy. the fast track to bankruptcy at least a burn rate of less than one billion dollars per year should break even in 2023.

Very very good. Very very very good. So I'm very proud of Elon uh for his changes. uh I did just get the full self-driving uh unfortunately I went on on a flight.

uh see I bought a plane because I was gonna make a joke that well since I can't get autopilot I'll buy a plane which has autopilot the name autopilot came from Aviation after all. of course the same day that I go to pick up my plane which has autopilot I get autopilot in the Tesla and I'm like yeah that that is the day I would get out of it anyway. So I finally got to try it out yesterday and uh I have to say um, very impressive. Uh there.

There was a moment where somebody was severely crowding. uh, my. Lane which uh uh, it was. it was a minivan I had to take over.

uh, and you know, jerk over. uh. So when this was when the other vehicle was right next to me. so I don't know if that was harder for the Tesla to see or something like that, but I did have to force take over I did also again revisit the frustration of not actually having a horn.

uh, that's because I I you know as that happened I I hit the horn and kind of turned the wheel because I'm like, stop like I'm here, right? That's the purpose of a horn. To the like, one percent of people who think you don't need a horn wake up. there are situations where you might need a horn. uh, but uh, but uh.

You know the thing is, as drivers, we do use our horn generally very rarely. and so, having driven for 14 years, maybe more 14, 15 years, my human reaction is always if this is the steering wheel and you need to in a situation react quickly you hit the middle right. but uh, the the early model S plads the early yoke models uh which include some of the X's and other cars. you actually have to hit the the button panel on the right.

uh which I have extremely difficulty or strongly complained about on Twitter as being completely stupid like that. Yes, I understand the horn works when you do that, but it's not innate in an emergency or in an urgent situation. I should say right? it's it's stupid. Uh, fortunately and this is what I do like about Tesla They changed that about two months after I got my car and I you know I'm not trying to take credit for it, but I did a lot of bitching on Twitter and on YouTube about two months after they actually added that sensor back to the middle of it.

Very, very proud of Tesla for doing that I just don't have it. Okay, enough about the horn. I just wanted to share that as an opportunity to show that Tesla does listen okay and I think that's very important. uh for a company and I'm proud of them for that.

Uh, otherwise. um. I had other situations where a vehicle was about to crowd into my lane and uh, the my Tesla was slightly behind it and slowed down. Saw that uh, many very impressive unprotected left turns.

Really cool. I Will say the creep is probably the neatest thing about full self-driving This is basically where if the cars at uh, at sort of a an intersection and maybe you have a bunch of parked cars on the left and right, you can't really see oncoming traffic. it just slowly sneaks up to kind of get that visual down the left and right alley. Really impressive.

Uh I I would say I had nominal interventions and uh in in certain that there was one instance where it kind of went into an area that it thought was an intersection. Uh, and it treated it more as an intersection like a stop sign. When the reality was, it had the right of way to kind of turn. Uh, but little edge cases like that were very rare and I didn't even take over.

In those cases, the car ended up figuring it out itself. Uh, very rarely did I have to take over. And so I have to say I'm very impressed. Uh, at this thing's ability to to drive me into a parking lot to go to pick up a bagel? Uh, to to get me home from that parking lot without me having to do anything Shocking.

Really, really shocking. This is the future. People don't realize that Tesla is a tech company, right? And this is where if we look at the models for Tesla Oh my gosh, let's talk about models. Man, You know who would have thought that you would come to this? Channel And you'd get to talk about models I mean like um, so sexy.

He's models are so hot like there's such a turn on? Look at this. Uh, no really here. I I Want to mention that? You know? Obviously, you've seen this spreadsheet before, But uh, one of the things that's remarkable about this is you know this represents about a six thousand dollar decline in Revenue per vehicle. But uh, you know, because we're sitting somewhere around about 52 000 per vehicle right now, right? But if if we could maintain 52 000 a vehicle because of FSD oh boy, that would be incredible.

But not only would that be incredible I Want to show you a few things. Okay, because you have to really play with this. So if Revenue goes down to forty seven thousand dollars a vehicle, uh, 4.2 million Vehicles by 2025 50pe, you're sitting at a 585 dollar uh, future price Target Given how low it is today, it's a complete bargain is what it feels like. hashtag not Financial Advice: Yes I am a licensed financial advisor, but this is not personalized Financial advice for you right? Anyway, But what I want you to see is watch this.

Okay, so I'm not going to add FSD in here because if I add FSD in here I'm going to take I'm only going to give it 30 margin, right? Well I want you to see this. Okay, watch this. So instead of going uh Robo taxi here we're going to go FSD Okay now what we're going to do is we're going to assume a 30 paid take rate. All right.

So hold on. Um, let's make uh this 30 but this needs to be not of the sales. this needs to be of vehicles. There we go.

So this many vehicles by uh of new production Vehicles end up buying FSD and we're going to multiply that by twelve thousand dollars or the current cost of FSD right? So that's number of vehicles 4.2 times 30 percent which this number right here times twelve thousand dollars. Okay, that's fifteen billion dollars of of Revenue right here. Now we're going to go over here. and uh, we need to take.

Uh, we need to add this to cost, right? So expenses on FSD expenses on FSD are not going to be 70. they might be closer to 10 above and beyond the R D expenses which are part of Opex which we already have right? So now we're only going to do a 10 expense over here on uh, on the FSD Revenue This is what people don't understand about Tesla And boy, when Wall Street realizes this. Holy Crap. Okay, so now we're going to take this expense out.

Let's go ahead now and add up all of these expenses. Let's make sure we actually have all of our boxes in here. Let's grab that one as well. Enter good Now, What's the future price? Target Look at that.

That adds a hundred bucks, folks. you got a hundred dollars to the potential future share price. Uh, by uh, by making this change, now you go now. Type in that this sucker's selling for 120 bucks a share as its present value.

I Mean you're you potentially see the stock increase 80 percent every year for the next three years? That's insane. Uh, in the meantime though, you have to buckle up for bankruptcy because that's basically the direction we're going in. Uh, you know it's it's what Warren Buffett says. you know the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Holy crap, it's down 6.4 I Started filming this video on the green candles here and it's like, oh, it's okay, it's recovering anyway. so so, uh I guess this down to 115? Don't understand. Anyway, that's why Tesla is falling. The things we talked about: oh wow, Arc is down 3.5 The Nasdaq's down 1.3 percent.

Holy crap. Oh my gosh, yeah, this is dirty. Holy smokers. uh.

anyway, so uh yeah, welcome to a recession and substantial fear I am of the belief that, uh, there's certainly more pain ahead, especially since December's not over. and just because we go into a New Year doesn't mean that things actually change. Uh, However, if you do want some more end of the year tax deductions, consider pre-buying yourself a day of shadowing uh with Kevin What some people are actually doing is they're buying multiple tickets. Uh, so that way, uh, when the price goes up, they could fly with me and uh, you know, March or February or maybe even January Uh, and then again in the summer and again in the in in the winter.

Uh, this. We're going to be doing this for a while so it's going to be pretty cool. Uh, I think uh, it would be very beneficial if you have not already bought one of the courses to buy one of the courses. Rationale there is, uh, get caught up on sort of my perspective there.

and and then when we do shadowing, you can be the most efficient with your time. Uh, that's my thought here. So anyway, thank you so much for watching. Cheers everyone! Good luck.

Try to stay sane. This is the irrationality of the stock market. and when things go up, things come down. That's the way stocks work and so you got to go through the pain to enjoy the gains.

Oh, almost cringe. So it's true though. It's just it's it's hard. Uh, but um.

oh well. good luck.