Hey everyone me kevin here. I fear the attack on ukraine is just beginning and potentially getting worse, now, keep in mind, usually geopolitical issues as terrible as it sounds, because these particular geopolitical issues, such as war in ukraine, could lead to severe loss of innocent lives. Uh and and even just military lives, which it's not their fault, their leaders are warring, but anyway uh. These geopolitical issues can often lead to severe contractions in the very short term in markets and can create buying opportunities.

In my opinion, this is where you want to have your santa claus wish list of stocks that you want to buy at certain prices, potentially even start setting limits to buy them so that you don't miss them. However, i would also only recommend that, if you believe that inflation will end up being transitory this year, now keep in mind that war does increase the potential of inflation actually not being transitory, as oil prices could skyrocket and specific commodities could become a lot more expensive. At least in the short term, now at the very moment we uh this morning during our market open livestream, which of course i do every morning with course, members answering your questions and sharing discussions with you. I started out my market open, live stream.

By talking about how little i believed that the sanctions imposed by the united states, japan, australia and europe will actually affect russia. I believe that they would have virtually a negligible impact, and the reason for that is, russia has substantially been divesting from gold assets. Their national wealth fund had 186 billion dollars of u.s treasuries. As recently as about three three and a half years ago and they've completely divested in their national wealth fund, they have reduced that 186 billion dollars in the fund and instead purchased a 30 chinese yuan, 20 gold, 40 european assets and five percent british pound.

Five percent. Japanese yen, instead of the dollar uh with just the currency portion of the national wealth, run fund now uh, there is talk that the u.s believes the venezuelan bank and the military bank hold about 80 billion dollars of u.s assets. Now this is a little bit up in the air, because if you look at u.s treasuries held by russia it it says they only hold like three billion dollars, which is essentially zero but uh. If these two particular institutions hold about 80 billion dollars in u.s assets, uh, then then, potentially the sanctions the u.s imposed yesterday could help freeze about that 80 billion dollars worth of liquidity and the theory there is hey.

If we can, you know turn off the tap of liquidity, potentially not that they don't have other sources of liquidity, then maybe we can reduce some of the the pain being experienced by uh by ukraine on behalf of russia's aggression now, right now, the united states last Night, moved eight f-35 fighter jets to uh quote several operating locations along nato's eastern flank uh. This would be where the separatist region is uh er of ukraine, but we're thinking more north, like i think latvia, estonia right, but it's the eastern side. So remember this. This is the russian side right 800 infantry battalion have been moved from italy to the baltic and 32.

Ah, 64 anti-tank helicopters have been moved from germany and greece to the baltics and to poland. So definitely a certain fears that potentially, in the event that russia invades ukraine now they're going to be on the doorstep of poland, uh latvia, romania, uh to some extent, bulgaria and so on. Now, uh russian reservists have also been moved into combat positions. This is usually a sign of uh of occupation readiness, so the military moves in after the military moves in and essentially takes control and stabilizes control.

Usually you have reservists who come in afterwards and then they get stationed as kind of like your your peacekeepers. Remember: there's a difference between peace making and keep peacekeeping. If you ever watch the movie hotel rwanda, you would have seen a perfect example of that uh, but anyway focusing on russia right now and ukraine. It's worth noting that the largest bank - i don't know if this is just me, but i tried this like four times this morning.

If you go to privatebank.ua, i got busted. Waff is watching you, which, which is just a you, know an anti-bot program, but i i did successfully complete their kapacha uh. This is what you get uh. Actually this bank was down for a period of time.

This had a notice. That said, sorry we're currently conducting maintenance on our website, so about an hour ago. This website was down for at least about 30 minutes. This is the second largest bank third largest bank is up.

Fourth largest bank is up, however, the foreign ministry of ukraine is down at least it was about an hour ago and about 30 minutes ago right now, i'm trying to refresh the page here live about an hour and a half into market open, and i i still Can't even get a ping response here, so uh not so great. We're. Definitely seeing an increase of this. This sort of cyber warfare style attack happening, and this, unfortunately, is leading equities in crypto to to sell off.

In fact, if we take a look at the day chart here on on qqq the nasdaq, we can absolutely see this rotation straight down to about the zero percent fibonacci line. If we look at the spy, we are still above the zero percent fibonacci line, but folks not by much the zero percent fib is at 420 57.. We have a brief uh stop point uh, like a pit. Stop at about 426.

we're at 427 right now. So we'll see what happens here, but we're definitely reapproaching that zero percent fib line, which we have not hit until or since january 24th. We take a look at some individual securities as well uh like tesla. You could see tesla here under 800..

Next, big support for tesla is really 750.. Now, of course, a shout out to ftx for sponsoring this video make sure to check out ftx get 10 and totally free cryptocurrency linked down below. If you use my referral link, but let's take a look at ftx here. This is the 15 minute chart for btc uh.

We can see we've had a nice recovery here since about the 21st, where we really bounced off. Of that 36-4 level, we've really been trying to recover uh. Yesterday we actually didn't have too terrible of a day. We sat above most of the day above that 37.5 line and we started trying to get back to 40k, but unfortunately, we did get rejected at 39.2 just this morning, as the uh tensions in ukraine did start elevating again now uh it's worth noting, as some of The other aspects that we got to pay attention to regarding russia.

First, we got to remember that right now, we've got notes here that uh the ministry of russia says that the current sanctions are going to have virtually no impact on them and that, if anything, they're going to have more of an impact on uh on the global Economy rather than on them, that's how they're twisting the narrative right now. Ukraine is also prepared to impose a state of emergency and, as of last night, started calling up reservists uh to to essentially be on standby for the potential invasion. The ukrainian parliament has also voted. Listen to this - and this is this - gives me sk chills votes to allow civilians to carry firearms.

This would be kind of like your sheriff coming out and saying uh all right. Everybody can now concealed carry wherever the hell. They want. That's scary, but anyway, zielinski again has called up reservists to raise quote army readiness for any possible changes in the real-time situation now uh.

It's also worth noting. This was wild that uh that over in ukraine, russia started withdrawing their diplomats from ukraine for the following quote: to protect the lives and safety of embassy personnel, russia. Now it's one thing: if the united states or like the united kingdom, starts pulling people out of russia or out of ukraine because they're like oh crap, russia's might be coming here, uh, but no. This is literally russia.

The attacker pulling out their staff going yeah. We should uh remove you to protect the your lives and your safety. It's it's not good. When the invading country is pulling people out now remember they were doing this in the separatist region.

They were giving people stimulus money of like 113 dollars to cross the border into russia and gtfo and sure enough now they've moved into those areas right, uh, okay, here we go just in from reuters, ukraine will uh induce or introduce a nationwide state of emergency in Which special restrictions will apply? Uh, okay, so more details still pending on this, but to keep the country calm and protect its economy amid fears of a russian invasion. So this news uh just broke just minutes ago here, yikes now, uh. Otherwise, we we do have to remember that the big issue for us in america - uh - really it comes down to i mean. Certainly the last thing we want to see is the potential for like a ww3 which, which i don't think would end up happening uh.

If you believe that putin's going to stop with ukraine, then that is good and again, if you don't believe that inflation is going to last, maybe potentially that is a by the dip opportunity. But and again my heart goes out to anybody who's actually affected by this. In in ukraine and on the border of russia, but my goodness the inflationary concerns are issues. It is believed that about every 10 increase in oil could lead to another half percent added to cpi.

Now that's insane, because if we look at the last three month chart for oil look at where we were when we ran cpi data for january. In january, we were sitting between eighty to ninety dollars now we're sitting between ninety five to ninety seven dollars. So, on average about ten dollars more, that's another half percent to cpi, just in oil move uh or in oil moves - and we know, based on every single earnings report that we're getting pricing power by especially consumer discretionaries, consumer staples companies, selling things to consumers, they're all Raising prices, it's gotten so bad that roku is like yeah uh prices are going up so freaking much that we're just thinking about making our own tvs, because manufacturers have too much pricing power. There is some good news, though, even though macy's believes they're going to pass along all of their pricing power to consumers, so consumers are going to pay it.

They are noticing that their customers are starting to reject higher prices on certain things, specifically things like sofas and mattresses. They can't raise prices on those for some reason, because people become too price sensitive and then they go shop somewhere else so worth keeping an eye on that as well anyway, as you can see at the moment until we get some good news here on russia, it Does appear that most indices are rotating to the red side. We've got the nasdaq and s p heading down to their support lines, and this is unfortunately hitting a lot of different companies. I mean even cloudflare, which you'd think would be so useful as a cyber security play right now, back down to 93 and uh tesla under 800 sitting at 787 right now dropping even a little bit more in just the last few minutes of filming here, my goodness! Well, folks, we've got to pay attention to this.

Let's see what happens, i will bring updates to you as they come in. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you next one.