In this video we go over Ray Dalio's recent commentary on the Chinese stock market.
Link to Dalio's Linkedin post: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-chinas-recent-moves-its-capital-markets-ray-dalio/
Join our free Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VBd6cA4jUt
Check out our second channel, The Economic Outlook:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQUOscigSQWCVG8m-ZC8wiw
#WallStreetMillenial
Link to Dalio's Linkedin post: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-chinas-recent-moves-its-capital-markets-ray-dalio/
Join our free Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VBd6cA4jUt
Check out our second channel, The Economic Outlook:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQUOscigSQWCVG8m-ZC8wiw
#WallStreetMillenial
What's up guys and welcome back to wall street millennial on this channel, we talk about everything related to stocks and investing recently. One of the biggest stories in the investing community is the recent developments in the market for chinese stocks. First, there is dd the chinese ride-hailing app that ipo'd on the new york stock exchange last june, that ipo raised 4.4 billion dollars, valuing the company at 70 billion dollars total less than a month later. Chinese regulators slapped heavy sanctions on the company for data privacy violations.
They banned the company from signing on new users and fined the company 77 000. It was a huge deal at the time because it marked a new high for china's regulatory actions on their own tech companies. A deity plunging more than 10 percent on reports that china could be considering an even harsher crackdown on the ride-hailing stock. Deidre bosa joins us with all the details: devo well melissa.
If you thought that earlier crackdowns on ant group and alibaba, you thought those were bad. The damage to deity could end up being far worse. Bloomberg is now reporting that chinese regulators are considering a slew of quote serious and unprecedented penalties from a massive fine to a forced listing or even a state-owned investor. Now that, of course, would come on top of the pain that has already been inflicted, namely its app has been removed from chinese app stores.
It's been prohibited from signing up new users, its offices, rated and, of course, there's those tens of billions of dollars that have been wiped off its market cap in just a matter of weeks, then, even more recently, chinese regulators announced that private for-profit education companies within the Country would have to shut down as for-profit institutions. Chinese corporate giants, like tao education in new oriental, were impacted, the most losing the majority of their market values in only a matter of days, a move lower in chinese stocks. You mentioned it earlier, but you got to keep your eyes on what's happening here, because chinese media reporting a crackdown on education technology by the chinese government. They would ban foreign capital from buying stakes and chinese tutoring institutions and ban such institutions from from public listings.
Now you may say to yourself what is the connection here yeah, i'm still saying that i know i know the ed tech market in china has been a very hot play in recent years, with 10 billion dollars in venture capital money pouring into the sector. In the last year alone and alibaba, tencent and bite dance are among the companies that have entered that sector uh. Here in the states, we are seeing uh pressure on names in the education sector. These two developments within the span of just a month have led to a lot of fear surrounding the chinese economic environment.
People are starting to wonder whether chinese companies, which are at risk of facing extreme sanctions from the government, are still investable at all. To that end. Billionaire hedge fund manager, ray dalio, recently published an article on his thoughts on the state of china from the perspective of an investor ray dalio is one of the most successful investors in history. He founded bridgewater associates almost 50 years ago, which has been the largest true hedge fund for the past 20 years. His primary investment style is macro investing with this strategy. He studies the history and economics of countries and uses what he's learned from history to predict broad market phenomena, because this style of investing invests in whole economies, currencies asset classes and so forth, as opposed to individual stocks. It's able to support much larger assets under management than traditional longshore hedge funds as part of his investing career. He has lived in china for an extended period of time and dealt heavily with chinese businesses in his latest article.
He offers his thoughts on what he thinks is really going on in china right now, if you're interested in his thoughts, it's probably a good idea to read the entire article yourself. The link is in the description below the first thing. He says in the article is that he thinks that western observers who do not directly deal with chinese policymakers and who do not follow china's historical changes in detail, have got the wrong idea about their government. Specifically, he points out the communist party's usage of capital markets, which he says most people misunderstand he's long said that he believes that western investors, misconceptions about china, has led to many investors missing out on the economic developments in the country over the past 40 years.
With the latest developments with dd and the education companies, he thinks the same thing is happening. The way he sees china's crackdown on didi is that, as a way for the chinese government to reign in the political power of financially successful companies. The way he sees the crackdown on the education companies is as a way to reduce educational inequality. Education is something that's very culturally important in china and seen as a way to promote equal opportunity and prosperity for their working classes.
Also, the for-profit education system is seen by the chinese government as putting undue financial burdens on poor families. Making high-quality education only accessible with money makes it impossible for many families to access education and thus opportunity for future wealth. By banning the for-profit education companies dalio thinks that the government is acting its own belief that these are things that are ultimately better for the country, despite short-term pain in the stock market. He goes on to talk about instances in the past few decades, when western observers have misinterpreted the chinese government's approach to capitalism.
For example, in 2015, the people's bank of china decided to allow the chinese currency to move in a band around a certain level. Up to three percent each day, this range was an increase from two percent, and many market observers considered a risky move that could bring depreciation and volatility to the chinese currency. Theoretically, a wider trading ban shouldn't be good or bad for a currency, but historically it had led to depreciation for the chinese yuan in particular. This depreciation means a tougher business environment, especially for foreign companies, if a foreign company's profits are earned in the chinese currency. After converting it back to us dollars or whatever the company's home currency is those profits are eroded. However, the long-term effects of widening the trading ban leads to a stronger export market for china. It allows the chinese yuan to deviate from its peg to the us dollar, which had been appreciating significantly at the time. Ultimately, the move was a painful step towards a longer term economic goal.
People thought that this meant the chinese government was moving against its own capital markets according to dalio. This type of thing has happened many times in history in capitalist economies, and fiscal and monetary interventions in the us have far exceeded the chinese interventions in terms of scale. Over the past 40 years, the chinese government has largely been successful at managing the consequences of their economic goals. The result has been astonishingly, fast, economic development from a starving population to the second biggest economy in the world.
In just 40 years, ray dalio says that this is the result of their encouragement of capital markets and entrepreneurship, a trend that is more powerful than any individual events. He considers china to be a state capitalist system. That means that they have capitalism, but only so far as it serves the interests of the people. They want their entrepreneurs to build great companies in profitable businesses and to become rich themselves.
What they don't want is for successful businesses and business people to gain the power to stand in the way of the government's agenda. In other words, they won't allow the beneficiaries of their state capitalism to decide how the country is run in the end. Ray dalio thinks that one of the biggest problems from the developments with dd and the education companies is that the chinese government has not explicitly spelled out their true intentions with the regulations. But ultimately, he sees these developments as just bumps in the road dwarfed by much larger trends in which china values, capitalism and the economic success that has brought for them over the past several decades.
He believes that, although there are significant risks for investors in china, there are also great opportunities and risks also exist in the american markets. He thinks that both markets will compete with each other and likely be a good hedge for each other, and thus both should be part of a good portfolio. Ultimately, his positive view on china has not changed alright, guys that wraps it up for this video. If you enjoyed this content, make sure to hit the like button and subscribe, so you don't miss future videos. Also, if you want to hear about some chinese and american hydro stocks that we think are especially compelling. Take a look at some of our other videos on this channel in the meantime. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see in the next one wall, street millennial signing out.
Keep investing in China and see how that turns out, lol. Not surprised a "millennial" would give such foolish advice.
Why are people complaining about the CCP cracking down on video game addiction and for-profit education? Is American tuition not high enough already?
In summary: CCP doesnt want you to become arrogant and start intervene their government (or making them jealous with your profit lol). Its better to only have moderate-level investment/business/profit in china, just dont stand out
So to conclude Ray Dalio's arguments: investing in Chinese stocks is high risk at the same time high rewarded action this is the definition of GAMBLING.
No matter how anyone can justify the crack down of the Chinese government on chinese companies or what are the long goals of Chinese government … All this doesn't matter to any investor who is losing his money.
Conclusion: your portfolio as an investor is better without Chinese stocks unless you're a gambler.
even if everything fins with chinese stocks, it is morally wrong to invest in them , you are just funding a fascist regime which kills its own people
I understand what he is saying about the Chinese government especially in the education system which has been turned into a lucrative business platform for teachers and tutors, that the Chinese government want to share the wealth but that’s totally anti capitalism. That was the whole point of moving all the jobs to China , profits not sharing the wealth. This may be good for the Chinese government even though it has never worked, but how do foreign investors feel about sharing the wealth. That’s an easy question just look at the west.
Dalio is 100% correct. People are not looking and WHY China does what it does. Yes, there may be some short-term pain, but to not be in China over the coming decades is crazy to me.
Dalio is salesman.
Cash is trash guy created such fear of holding cash that lots of people are buying shit that's stupid as fuck. And they'll want to bury that guy in a shit.
When people all run from something, particularly on the pump of these ass hats like Musk or some other billionaire… you run. Or you get screwed.
Hello Thankyou WSM for the link, much appreciated. It's not a bad idea to read Dalio's original post, but more important read the comments. They will tell you lots and give you pause no matter what position you favour. m WSM I would have been too lazy to to hunt down the original post so thanks again. m
Ray dalio is the modern version of Dennis Gartman .whatever he says , DO the OPPOSITE
He has no choice but to be bullish he’s in too deep with Chinese equities and can’t get out. Fuck all these hedge funds let them hold the bag for once.
With the high amount of US publicly listed Chinese companies turning out to be fraudulent, whoever invests in them are just fools trying to part with their money.
With few exceptions of course.
Ah yes. Misconception of China lol. We just didn’t understandd why they forced their people to have abortions hahaha silly westerners
they give their ppl entrepreneurship cos they know they can take over anytime. they are just lending you the business for time being to grow for them
All it takes is one majestic sweep of Emperor Xi's Mao-suit clad arm and you're bankrupt. And people think Africa has sovereign risk.
cause its to big of a ego blow to admit he was wrong. Hes to deep into the hole he has to many chinese investments. Its obvious its terrible now and its still a dictatorship. Him and Jim Rogers are learnign the hard way you can't compare them to america cause they are not a free country.
Sounds like Ray has already sold his soul to the CCP.
Hard choice: Option nr 1 read the comments of the kids living in the parents basement? Option nr 2 do what Billionaire, is advising you to do? After long debate I chose Option nr 2 and I invested in CLPS stock. Only time will tell who was right and who was wrong. Love you all 🙂
good to know the comment sections represent the dumb retail money, just have to do the opposite. buy a ton of chinese stocks since most of these comment is brain dead hate, people say the same shit for robinhood lmao, yall deserve to lose money and live in a fking bubble.
Interesting views. Unfortunately not really convinced. Many of the agendas seem bad for business and even china’s own external power base but only helpful for maintaining the party’s strength on a domestic level.
Because he needs suckers to hold the bag so he can bail. The CPC is eating itself and the stock he owns is with companies belonging to the bad side of the purge.
Three things I never trust are the restaurant special, investment companies based in Chicago, and China stock calls
China's fine but the one thing that I have learned is their stock is not like American stocks. Never go long on Chinese or Canadian stocks
Why on earth does he think China and the US would compete?! They're completely different markets with a sea between the two. Also a small issue of languages
think mr ray d has lost it if wishes to invest in a business the ccp is hellbent in destroying. good luck to him.
People have to understand that the rules that apply to investing in the US simply don't apply to China. Investing in China is like investing in a rough gang-infested neighbourhood.
Ray Dalio has been wrong many times man he almost went broke betting the market will crash in the 90s when it just kept going up for years
Education is not culturally important in China. Before the Communists took over, over 90% of Chinese were illiterate, for thousends of years. Education has always been a privilege. Chinese peasants were beaten, to force them to learn to read and children were taken away from them for education, when Mao came into power. They even simplified the chinese writing, to make it easier for the population. If you want to learn the original chinese signs, you will find them in Taiwan only.
Over the past 20 to 30 years the communist party has promoted education as a means to get wealthy. Now, many people feel left out, because education has become so expensive. The communist party fears for its power. And this is why they act like the act now.
It's good to be a contrarian you can easily see it by all the hate the people have and how bad their beliefs are.
Dude what's with you and china, bro
Like if people took what you said about china gaming stocks they would be bag holding hard.
Every Chinese knows that Chinese stock is never supposed to be a long term investment in the first place.
Amazing video, thanks!
Inspired me to make videos that read out the most epic WallStreetBets stories from traders =)
If u cant see the opportunity in Chinese stonks right now u must be a republican
Guys will post Buffets “be greedy when others are fearful” but won’t even consider Chinese stocks
I don't trust Ray Dallio at all
Equal opportunity in education of the working classes in China? Bullshit. Rich families are much more likely to succeed than poor people in China, despite China claiming to be socialist. They just don't want their education slip out of government control
A lot of their recent growth is fueled by real estate, a lot of construction ends up not being completed or buildings and bridges collapsing. Cheap instead of quality and sustainable. The government doesn't really go after it because they profit from selling lnd leases and being able to report a higher GDP