Good morning allegedly squad, i hope, everybody's doing well. This is your friendly former senior financial analyst tom, currently a full-time youtuber, and in today's video i got a special treat for you. We're going to be going over the michael berry latest bits, including a full review of the scion capital 13f filing now, if that sounds super geeky to you you're on the wrong channel, because i think everybody is looking at the wrong thing here, even though we also Did a video about the tesla bed, the main part of the michael berry, 13f filing is actually everything that is not tesla. The other bets that he made are actually very alarming.

We absolutely have to talk about them because it may save you a lot of money. Now, as always, i don't want you to click, nothing, don't smash, nothing don't buy nothing. I don't have any courses to sell. Just give me your attention for the next five minutes and i'm going to show you what michael berry is actually betting on or against, because both are equally as important.

My name is tom nash and i quit my corporate job as a senior financial analyst to break down companies for you there's one thing you need to know about me: i don't take from anybody now. What we absolutely have to talk about is the second biggest and the fifth biggest position in his portfolio, which actually make a very interesting prediction that nobody seems to be talking about, because, if you don't remember michael berry predicted the housing market crash which nobody saw coming So he has a lot of cards in the game and actually believe he knows what he's talking about some of you might say. Well, tom, didn't you just hate on him for the tesla bet he's just betting against tesla. He must be an idiot.

Well, not exactly, as i explained my video, the tesla bat is not really a tesla bet, it's more of a market bet. But if you want to hear my explanation, my theory and even maybe disagree with it and put some nasty in the comment section go right ahead. That's one of the previous videos i did, but in this video i'm going to be showing you something very unique that nobody's on youtube for some reason talking about, even though it's way more important than the tesla port. Now the 13 f's actually include a few pieces of information.

We absolutely have to talk about now on my channel. You know i like to give you the nuance truth, even if it's complicated, even if it's not plain vanilla, because i want you guys to see what's really going on now - mainstream media needs the headlines. So they're talking about tesla the pod most youtubers follow suit. I mean that's normal, even i did it.

However, in this video i want to show you something that mainstream media just can't tackle, because they think it's too complicated for their audience, which i don't think, because my audience will love this so check it out. Michael berry has two positions we absolutely have to talk about now. Number one is his second biggest position is actually shorting the 20-year bond, the fifth biggest position. He actually bet on an etf that actually shorts bonds as well, so he doubled down on shorting the bond market.

Now we're not going to go into technicalities, but i do want to explain to you how shorting a bond works just in a quick sentence. As short on the pawn means that you as a short, you want the yield of the bond to go up, because if the price of the bond is negatively correlated to the yield, you want the price of that to actually go down when the price goes down. It means there is no demand, it means that the yield goes up. So, as a short, you want the yield on those bonds to go up, and when it goes up, you make money.

Why well simply put yields of bonds, actually tell us a lot about what the market thinks about inflation, and in this case a 20-year bond will pay you about 2.3 a year and if the inflation rate is higher than that which it was in april, for example, It was more than 4, then this becomes a losing bet on definition. Essentially, if you buy a pawn that gives you 2.3 a year when the inflation is four percent four and a half percent, that means you're losing money. It's insane. You would never make that deal, which means a lot of people will do the same.

The price will go down, the yield will go up and the only case in which that scenario happens is when you have high inflation rates. High inflation rates cause that scenario to the t and what happens when you have high inflation rates? You have high interest. High interest means greater discount rates in your discounted cash flow. Valuations dcfs, meaning tech companies suffer because usually the set play is when you're actually concerned about inflation.

As an institutional investor, you either get gold or you short, the bond market. Now his short is massive. Look at the numbers. I'm not gon na go through the 13th f literally here, but it's his second biggest and fifth biggest position.

That means he's concerned about inflation and so far he hasn't been wrong. Now on the screen right now, you're going to see the 20-year bond yield rate and you're gon na be surprised how right he was because this bet was made in january. So let's look up january. The rate was 1.46 1.49 and now it's 2.3.

Now he made a lot of money. This whole thing is basically michael bury's gain. He was right now. I don't know how long this short is, if he's still in, if he out, i don't know, but if he's still holding that short this far out, he made a on the money, even if he left here here he made 2.36.

So he might have made more money, but whatever the case may be the odds, are he made a lot of money on this based on what happened with inflation, the yield rate? You all know the inflation numbers for april four and a half percent, so the dude was right now. The question is: what can we learn about this as investors? So we know that michael thinks inflation will go up like crazy. Obviously he made that bad. He also bet on google and facebook, which essentially means he's betting on cash flow.

Positive companies, which essentially means is betting against inflation. Now that means that unless you have high conviction and you're willing to hold the tech stock for the next two or three years, stay away from tech, at least until things settle down, because at this point we still haven't seen the bottom of tech stocks. Now, if you have a long horizon like kathy wood from arc, invest you honestly don't care, because if you think a company will 10x itself because it's going to be revolutionary and disruptive, it doesn't matter if you get a 20 at 30 at 40 or 50.. If it's going to 500, who cares if you have that three-year horizon and you're absolutely confident about the company doesn't matter, but for everybody else you should be careful because michael berry is saying to you: hey inflation is not to be discounted literally now, for those of You who lasted this long, which means the geeks there's more in the 13 f's.

You absolutely want to hear, because michael berry also bet on a bunch of companies in three industries - healthcare, energy and transportation in healthcare. He actually invested in three pretty much startups. Healthcare is actually somewhere. You definitely want to check him out because he's actually a medical doctor, so he knows what he's talking about so in healthcare.

He invested in three companies. I'm gon na list the names in the description. Now, since i'm not a medical expert, i can't really break down these companies for you, but i can tell you that all three fit the same description pre-profit still haven't, made any money, extremely disruptive, potentially and very interesting concept as far as the total addressable market. But these are incense lottery tickets he's scratching now, since he's crashing those and he's an md, and he actually knows what he's doing probably worth investigating more into it, but i don't have anything to offer beyond that now he also invested in two transportation companies and two Energy companies - which i absolutely want you guys to see essentially one actually explores and develops, and the other one produces gear for the exploration and production of energy and oil and whatnot again, not an expert energy.

But it seems he's betting on energy and it seems that you should be exploring that as well as a potential opportunity. Also. He actually invested in two very interesting companies. We absolutely have never heard about before.

At least not me, one is called sdng, which is a company that pretty much tankers. I mean he's investing in tankers right now, but also another company is goga, not google. Another company, that's similar golden ocean group. Essentially, that's another dry vessel company, essentially more boats, so essentially in q1.

Michael berry is betting against tesla, he's betting on high inflation rates by going short on bonds and he's betting on facebook and google, which are cash, flow, positive and he's getting two companies that are building boats or leasing. Whatever two are in energy, either exploration or production of gear and three in medical, essentially either pharmaceuticals or medical treatment, essentially all pre-profits, definitely early stage lottery tickets. However, you should definitely look into those because michael berry is not an idiot. He definitely knows what he's doing, but he's not god he's just a guy with an opinion.

Like me, everything i say here is just my opinion. By being accurate might be wrong might be the ramblings of amendment, so you still have to do your own research, and i mean it. You got to do your own research, allegedly blah blah mother, effing blah, as always a huge shout out to our channel members. Other patrons, i hope you enjoyed this type of video.

It was more informational, less sensational, less trendy, but i absolutely needed you to hear this, because this is important for your financial education. I hope you enjoyed this. Let me know in the comments below we'll see you guys next video.