Hey guys, it's Sasha The US Stock Market is going parabolic after the FED announced that they plan to start cutting interest rates a lot sooner than they said just one month ago. The statement that should have surprised absolutely nobody was a massive surprise for Tweed old. Doms AKA Wall Street Analyst: because the stock market went up 1.3% yesterday on top of the 2% that it has already gone up in the week before. And the big reason for why the stock market is exploding is this chart right Here This chart shows the projections of the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Comm for interest rates in the future.

In the US interest rates are set as a quarter per range, so the dots are the middle of that range. You can see that because the FED did not increase interest rates at this meeting, they all now agree that the year will end with rates at 5.5% I'm going to use the upper bound of the range to make it easier to talk about the numbers. and this is interesting because the FED does these predictions every two meetings. The last one was at the end of September And the fascinating thing is that at that meeting at the end of September when it was completely obvious from every single bit of data and any analysis that inflation in the US has done, 12 out of those 19 Tweedle Dums said that they think interest rates will go up by the end of the year, but now look at what they thought the rates would be in 2024, You can see that the majority agreed that rates would be just below the current level.

Maybe One Rate decrease at the end of next year. One guy back in September really went to town predicting that interest rates would keep going up with three more rate hikes next year? How does this person actually have a job on the committee? I Mean a blind, mentally challenged raccoon randomly poking at numbers would do a much better job. But anyway, at the end of September the FED thought there would maybe just be one interest rate cut in 2024 on average. Here is the chart from this month's meeting: Suddenly the majority think that rates will go down to 4.75% which is a 0.75% % drop, which would make it three times.

0.25% drops. That member who was predicting the apocalypse and three more rate hikes next year has suddenly changed his mind. So the FED said that interest rates would now drop by 0.75% instead of 0.25% next year and this is enough for the stock market to be going. Absolutely bananas.

But remember, the FED is the sort of place where people don't like to make it blatantly obvious when they get something really badly wrong like they have done. So when they realized at the meeting yesterday that they are a year too late to the party, they have to pretend that this is actually all part of the plan. This is exactly how they wanted to do it. and the plan is to arrive at the right answer.

Really slow because if you suddenly change your forecast by I don't know a factor of two. If you drop it by 2% you'll look like an absolute joke. It'll look really obvious that you made a massive mistake and now you're making a correction. So the FED is slowly moving their forecast down every single time They have one of these meetings, which means more rate Cuts will be coming and those cuts will be coming sooner and the market is reacting by going absolutely nuts every single time.

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Make sure you use my link in the description or in the pin comment to check it out. This morning, news broke that November retail sales beat Expectations by going up 0.3% month of month. This is adjusted data because otherwise Black Friday means that November sales are actually up more like 2% versus October And here is the detailed breakdown of this data. You can see that so far in 2023, retail sales are up 3.2% compared to the first 11 months of last year.

But the crazy numbers down here if you exclude gas stations, sales are actually up 4.7% so far this year and up 5.4% in November compared to November last year. This is important because oil prices have fallen sharply in 2023 compared to 2022 and so gasoline prices have fallen too. This is nothing to do with demand or how the economy is doing, but excluding this oil price drop, the US economy is on a very strong path to recovery. And it's funny watching all the YouTube idiots completely change their tune because this is what all of those clowns were saying exactly one year ago.

If I'm looking at 2023 is a whole year I'm very, very, pessimistic. I Think a recession is not only unavoidable, it's going to be very, very violent. So I'm staying the hell away. and I'm very, very careful from this.

Market Right now the government says down we play Down Based on this metric is that the next 10 years is going to be very difficult to make money. I am guessing that those clowns will go and delete those videos as soon as they see this one. I've put the links to those videos in the description just in case. but here is what I said at the same exact time and I am not sure if I am looking at a completely different set of data to the rest of the world or maybe panic and fear cells, you know, I'm guilty of making stupid thumbnails too.

I'm so sorry. but let me tell you about the data because the data is showing that the exact opposite of the Doom and Gloom that everyone has prophesizing tends to be a more likely scenario. But listen, the point here is not trying to show you the clowns making up and talking about things they don't actually understand. The point is that until yesterday, the whole Market was still talking about an impending recession Doom and Gloom how interest rates might go up and continue going up.

Inflation is going to come back. and Destroy Everything You Hear the same analysis about the buffer indicator being too high or The shelp ratio being way too high. Or you know, the inverted yield curve. Oh my goodness, it's 100% for sure.

Absolutely for certain guarantee that the stock market is going to crash. Everything is about to implode. You should maybe sell all of your stocks because blah blah brah. Trust me bro.

the fact is none of this is analysis. This is all pseudo science. The world is far more complicated than that. Nobody knows when the next crash is coming.

no matter how many charts they shove in front of your face. Those clowns have no idea I Have no idea. You also have no idea basing your investing decisions of some numnuts on YouTube is a really bad idea. Investing is not about buying into the market and selling out of the market at the perfect time.

Investing is not about trying to perfectly time the market crash. get in at the very bottom, get out of the very top. I Know that's what you see in the movies. That's not how the real world.

Works Investing is all about patience and all about ignoring all the DeWees who sell panic because selling Panic gets some the views on YouTube It's easy to forget how negative everyone's opinion was just one a year ago. Literally everybody everywhere on TV in the media on social media on YouTube everywhere we screaming that you have to get out of the stock Market before it goes even further down you don't want to be catching a falling knife. The biggest ever stock market crash will wipe you out and since then, the stock market is up 23% This time last year I was saying that I'm super excited about 2023 today I am even more excited about 2024 because of what I'm seeing in the data if the stock market reacts like it is reacting now to a tiny little adjustment in the Feds forecast for interest rates next year: I Can Only Imagine How the stock market will react when inflation drops below 3% and the rates begin going down a lot sooner than many people expect. The FED reduced their forecasts because they had no choice.

But here is something funny. see how the 2024 forecast came down. well. the forecast for 2025 has not changed.

It's exactly the same as before. Apparently, starting to reduce rates sooner and doing more rate drops next year does not affect the rates in 2025 at all. This is math according to the Federal Reserve but even funnier, the 2026 forecast has actually gone up. The FED thinks that the interest rates in 2026 will be higher because they're going to start cutting them sooner.

Nobody in the media is paying attention to this, but the projected interest rates in 2026 according to the FED is now 25 basis points higher than it was in the September forecast. I Don't have any idea why. I Have a funny feeling that the members of the Fomc also have no idea why because they just make up as they go, they just pick a random number. The point is, I really wouldn't Place much value on what the FED says in those forecasts on what Jerome Powell says in his meetings because the FED is absolutely full of at the end of 2021 when inflation was at 7% 7% Jerome Powell was saying that there was no need to increase interest rates from 0% This actually happened, but then reality smacked them right in their smug faces and they had to increase rates at the fastest rate in history.

It'll be interesting to see what happens when the opposite reality start smacking the Fed and the Wall Street analyst in the face next year.