A little frustrated about the news media - and this is no surprise, but it should come as a red flag to you. First of all, today two sets of housing data came out. The mainstream media only decided to tell you about one of them, not the other one, and i think this is a little bit sus. Let me go ahead and start by telling you what they told you and i'm going to tell you what they totally didn't.

Tell you - and i think this is a little messy and dirty i'm not exactly sure why what's the motivation here to hide this, but i think it's very very important just like what also is important. Are the programs linked down below with an expiring coupon code ending tonight and then we're raising the price tomorrow largest price increase? Yet for the programs of building your wealth, educational programs with private course, member live streams where we can talk about more learning and education, all right folks, let's get into this look at this. This is cnbc. This is the new york post and you can see they have a lot of ads and notifications that they want.

This is cnn. This is bloomberg. All of them ran a version of the same article and it has to do with home prices surged over 20 percent. In march, as interest rates also rose according to the s p case, schiller index, and so throughout this you'll see the discussion about nationally home prices were 20.6 percent higher than where they were in march of 2021, and this makes sense.

This has been the case and interest rates ended march around 4.67 and oh, my gosh, it looks like real estate hasn't slowed down. How interesting all we get is talk about where real estate is appreciating uh, specifically areas like tampa that are appreciating or or other regions that are doing well versus others that aren't doing that well, see tampa jumped 34.8 in this 20 uh sort of uh city index. Tampa jumped 34.8 32.4 for phoenix, followed by miami dallas and san diego uh, and then, of course, we had some slower growth in cities like chicago uh and some other areas. So fine.

But where was the other piece of information here? What what is missing? Well, a few things are missing. First of all, this case-shiller information is based on closings in march. That is not a leading indicator. It is a massive lagging indicator that is now two month old data, but it's actually more than two month old data, because in order for you to close a home in march, you actually had to go into escrow and probably lock your interest rate in late january Or in february, so really in the six weeks between january 15th and the end of february, during those six weeks when interest rates were actually under 4, those were the people who closed transactions in march.

Now that's important because that means the home price appreciation we saw through march is still a representation of pushing up that peak, still pushing the snowball up the hill a little bit. The higher interest rates that we saw at the end of march really don't actually impact buyers closings until may, which is really really interesting, but we have another piece of data that came out. That's also a little bit lagging, but it's a little better. It's slightly better.

Okay, so this data that came out is the fhfa house price index, which measure measures a month over month change and what i think is very interesting about this, even though it still came in hot okay, it came in substantially below expectations, and this was very interesting. The expectation was that we would see a 2 month over month gain in real estate prices in march, and this is all the way back to march. Okay, uh. We so we thought we were going to see two percent, that's about a 24 annualized run rate right.

It's not actually what we saw. We missed the estimate quite substantially with a 1.5 percent read and again for march, and none of the news articles that i found covering the s p story mentioned a substantial 25 miss on expectations from surveyed economists. None of them mentioned that miss on the fhfa. Now this is still unfortunately march data, and it's really important to remember that.

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Now this march data, first of all, we got one piece of march data which is like all right come on, so we got s p, k, shiller data, that's really like four months old right, because we're we're referring to those mid january to mar um to end Of february numbers for actual closings, but the fact that we broke trend with the estimates is a sign that wall street isn't really pricing in. In my opinion, what's about to come, i think more important and leading information is the fact that we absolutely destroyed the new home builder contracts estimate that came out about a week and a half ago. Now that was a really big deal and i'll tell you why there's a big deal when we get these case-shiller reads and the month-over-month reads: what we're actually doing is we're looking at closings right, closings have that delay, but if we go back to the home sales, The new home sales report from about again a week and a half ago we were expecting to get new homes, a new home sales of 748 000.. This data came out actually about a week ago may the 24th.

We were expecting about 750 748 000 and we got 591. That is a leading indicator. 591 divided by a 748, is a 21 miss. So now we miss on the march, which is supposed to be a hot month.

We mitch miss on the march month over month. Data and we've now missed on the new home sales data. That's a double miss of not only the old data but the new data, and it makes sense folks because, as lowe's projected buying power is, we have about an excess or an excess demand problem of roughly about 20 to 25 percent. But if interest rates are up three percent and that saps buying power by 30, we're going to see declines in real estate prices at the end of the year wouldn't be surprised.

We start seeing that tick down. Come q3. Q4. The big question about what happens next in the real estate market will be dependent on how many new listings are listed.

A week ago, we did a report on this channel that we're already starting to see new home listings pop in certain areas that are pretty hot. Like austin texas and that's how it starts after all of these other, these these misses start coming in, we start seeing fear, build up inventory, build up because more people decide to list. They don't have to be homeowners, they could be investors, they could be people who are airbnb. There's a lot of potential inventory out there, properties that were getting renovated.

They could get dumped, they could be institutionally owned, homes that are turning vacant and then they dump them there. A lot of potential sources of inventory - and i just want to caution that be careful. I think real estate now is the time to get educated on and get prepared to go shopping for, but not necessarily buy right. Now, i'm being pretty clear about that, obviously not financial advice, because i don't know your situation even if i did.

I couldn't be a financial advisor for you. I can provide education and try to provide you point you in the right direction and hopefully that helps you out. Just like the courses, i'm building your wealth link down below go to medkevin.com join to check them out. Next to the link for ftx thanks so much goodbye,.