Welcome to another video, my name is tom nash? Don't click, nothing, don't smash. Nothing don't buy nothing! Just listen in this video i'll explain to you exactly what's going on with russia and ukraine beyond the propaganda from both sides and what i think is coming next, because i don't think china is about to rescue russia like everybody on both sides. Think, let's start russia's economy is in shambles and it's been going downhill at an alarming rate since 2014, which is when the us actually started. Sanctioning russia for annexing crimea, the russian gdp per capita, went down by 35.

Can you imagine an economy going down 35? In eight years, russia's economy is a total toilet. The us has a gdp per capita of 55 to 60 thousand dollars depend on the year. Russia is about fourteen thousand, before twenty fourteen. Since 2014, it's single digits, it's 8 700 per capita.

It's abysmal it's nowhere near where western modern countries should be definitely with so much resources in the ground, so he had to solve this problem now. Annex in crimea was hugely popular in russia and gave him a lot of boost. He basically said: well i'm going to use my military power to cover up my incapacity. As far as economics, i'm going to take my military, i'm going to get a seat at the table with u.s and china, because they'll have to respect me and negotiate with me.

After i do it, so i'm going to get some clout from them, i'm going to get people rallying behind the flag and forget about the fact that the economy is the toilet and i'm going to do everything while causing a rift between ukraine, germany and the us. Ukraine is going to be mad that nobody's coming to their protection like they promised. Germany is going to be fighting with the us, because germany would not want to sanction me because i own them, because i supply most of their gas and the us would want to shellack me, and this triangle of hate is going to dissolve nato. So we're going to get all this in three days of blitzkrieg boom boom boom.

The government is gon na run away because they're crumb puppets and we're gon na take over ukraine, not a single shot fired where it matters basically crimea, 2.0. Now, obviously that didn't happen. The war is now in its third week, the government is still standing and, most importantly, the people of ukraine are not welcoming him as a savior, which i thought he was sure of now, because of that, the military effort is costing him more and more money. More and more casualties is becoming less and less popular back home in russia and he's essentially alienating himself and no longer can be considered as the liberator of ukraine.

They freaking hate him, so even if he wins, which probably seems to be the case with the amount of military power and just the sheer numbers that russia has over ukraine what's next, let's say he conquers ukraine, which, by the way, would be a monumental task. If the people aren't cooperating, which they're not so it's a humongous country, let's see him do that first, but assuming he's done that, let's say he stays and occupies ukraine i mean the cost of this is going to be insane his economy can't handle that. Let's say he wants the puppet government. If he's not there to prop up the government, and he leaves the moment he leaves they're going to overthrow the government if he stays it's like him.

Occupying the country. He'll need hundreds of thousands of men on the ground to keep it going money. He doesn't have so there's no realistic way for him to win here also, if he actually conquers ukraine, that's the worst thing that can happen to him, because that means there's not going to be a deal. The only way out for putin here is to sign a deal with ukraine that the west will approve, because that's the only way out of these sanctions.

If putin beats ukraine, if he, i think the worst thing that could happen to putin is this government will run away if putin actually takes ukraine by force. The door is closed on any removal of these sanctions, but if they work out a deal then the sanctions can be lifted. So putin needs the solution to come from an agreement, but the problem is his military has gotten exposed for the piece of trash that it is and he has no achievements on the ground to leverage to an actual peace agreement that he can actually sell back home. As a reasonable one, so he can't do the peace talks until he has some achievements, but the military is just total doodoo.

So now the military is resorting to bombarding civilians, which is alienating the local population even more and pushing the settlement even further. So he's trapped and now even his own minister of finance is saying well half of our assets. Our foreign reserves are frozen. We can't access that now.

The other half is pretty much, also very heavily leaning on gold and that 130 billion that he has in gold. It's not that liquid, you know, gold markets are just not as liquid as equities as you would think. Moving that much gold is going to be impossible. Probably he could move anywhere from 5 to 10 to 15 of his gold reserves in the next.

Let's say two months, and even that is going to crash the gold market, because it's going to be dumping all this gold in the market. The price is going to crash, basically rendering his own gold pretty much worthless. So he's stuck there's no money coming in, except from gas oil and commodities, which is a lot of money still because everybody still needs his gas all in commodities. But it's not enough money to do anything but survive.

He still needs much much much more foreign currency to keep the ruble afloat. The russian bank, the russian central bank, needs a lot of foreign currency to prop up the ruble and with access to foreign currencies blocked by the eu, and the us he's basically locked out out of the only instrument he has to save the ruble from crashing, which Is exactly what's happening right now? The ruble is crashing, inflation is going through the roof. The economy is falling apart. Russia is headed to bankruptcy.

So how can he get out of it? Well, a peace agreement would be nice. I don't know if that's in the cards, it doesn't seem like it. The other option for him is basically to have china step in and save his ass, but here's why china is a complicated solution which i don't think he has well for. First, look if china saves his ass look at what he went through.

He went through all of this craziness to lose the entire cloud of the eu, which is now completely disengaging from him. It's basically unifying under nato, sweden, denmark, all these countries, finland, are trying to join nato, so nato is uniting he's, getting isolated, he's getting cut out from europe, and mainly that's the crazy part that europe is militarizing and talking about diversifying out of russian gas in the Next 10 years, so you're losing clout in europe from being the guy in europe into being owned by china. If china saves russia, china basically owns russia they're the only option, as is this, but even that even that shitty option is not really on the table. I'll explain why look president xi and putin are best friends forever.

The bromance is so strong, it's as good as it's ever been, but it's meaningless because all about interest china has to play this very very carefully. They have to say the right things or putin is right. Nade are the bad guys and we support putin, but you guys should all just get along. You notice this they're staying neutral, they're, saying all the right things to be nice to put in but they're staying neutral because they don't know how the chips are going to fall and they don't want to find themselves on the wrong side of history because they don't Know what putin might do so they're not supporting him fully now? The other part is that you know china is a net exporter and they have a huge market in the us.

They have to tread very very carefully. They don't want to get sanctioned by the us and basically cause a cluster freak internally for russia. That's not something they're interested in now also look china beyond this whole thing is also in a really bad situation. Right now, internally, china, much like the us, is going to pay much more for gasoline and for oil and for gas.

Now, while the us can pretty much take it and people are not going to like it for china, that means potential local instability. That means potential loss of power for xi. They can't afford it, so china is now slowly moving away to this camp of understanding. Well, this war is costing us a lot of money and potentially putting our own government at risk because of elevated prices of oil.

We have to get them to find a deal, so china is not going to cut off ties with putin. They'll still say you know the lip service about how nato is wrong, but i think china at this point is much more interested in pushing putin and ukrainians into an arrangement that finishes this mess rather than providing weaponry to russia. So, that's why i think putin can't really rely on china to bail him out here. But let's see what happens, let me know below if you agree with my theory, if you don't i'd, love to hear your comments and if you want to support this channel and this sort of content you can go below in the description.

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