Hey guys, it's Sasha So Yesterday Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee decided to increase rates by a quarter of a percent to an upper bound of 4.75 And yes, you guessed it, incredible. Everyone was mighty surprised. the NASDAQ is up five percent since that announcement. Tech stocks have absolutely exploded.

Tesla Stock is up to 190 dollars. I'm recording this video, it's probably going to be up to about a thousand dollars if you're watching this two or three days later. I Am astonished by this bizarre thing that the stock market seems to be doing an entirely different thing to what all the so-called experts and analysts keep saying because just before that rate announcement Michael Berry tweeted and not so cryptic instruction which said cell. This probably comes as no surprise given the Michael Berry is a complete who thinks he's a God's gift to randomly guessing which way the stock market is going to go because during the.com crash and a financial crash, if you happen to be the guy shorting the market at that time, you would make a lot of money.

and Michael Berry did happen to show the market and did happen to make a lot of money. There are two big problems with degenerate gambling, though. the one guy who happens to make the right bet is elevated to some kind of god-like status because that one bed happened to come through. Therefore, of course, every other bed that person places will also come through.

It doesn't matter that there are thousands of other similar analysts who made other high-risk bets that failed. History does not give a about the losers. They are irrelevant. and when Hollywood goes and makes a movie about you, your status as a resident genius is cemented.

The Gambler starts believing his own hype, tells everyone on Twitter that they should absolutely 100 percent sell the stock, and the army of followers treat each and every word that comes out of their disgusting foul mouths as gospel. And for the last six years at least Michael Berry has been shouting the stock market is in the biggest bubble of all time it will imminently collapse. Everyone should sell all of their stocks. And of course, if the biggest crash ever does not come, which it hasn't for the last six years, it does not mean that he is wrong, It just means that he's early.

He's of course right, is definitely coming. You just wait. And if you followed all of this talking stupid advice, you'll be sat on your ass while everyone was making insane returns in the stock market from 2019 to 2021.. of course, Michael Berry is not alone in saying that the entire economy is about to collapse.

Oh my God. let's all go and live on a bunker. It's going to be worse than you can possibly imagine. Fear sells.

And these guys sell fear. Last year, short sellers went to town scoring a 300 billion dollars in Mark to Market profits on average short interest of 973 billion according to data analytics firm S3 Partners Well, when the market goes down, the short sellers have some money to make. This year, So far, heavily shorter stocks Tesla and Coinbase though have gone up by 44 and 74 respectively in just one month. This data is already massively out of date.

In fact, the 50 most shorted stocks in the Russell 3000 are beating the S P 500 so far. This year, gaining 15 versus the index is six percent. As the Daily Upside puts it with no to exceptions like meme stocks, what crashes down must eventually claw back higher. which is a very simple point that makes actual long-term investors a lot of money while the degenerate gamblers are losing their shirt playing stupid games to win stupid prizes.

And you should go and sign up to the Daily Upside, who are the sponsors of today's video. If you want to read genuinely good, high quality content written by industry professionals with an appropriate dosage of sarcasm and humor thrown in, Daily Upside is a completely free newsletter that you can sign up for. All you have to do is give them in your email address and you'll get one email every morning with the best hot takes on the latest news stories from around the world. of Finance They are on point, they don't waffle and you can read the whole thing over a cup of coffee.

I Highly recommend the Daily Upside, and you might as well sign up because it costs you nothing. And if for whatever reason you don't like it as much as I do, you can always unsubscribe. so make sure you go and use the link in my description or in the pin comment comment and sign up now. Doom And Gloom still seems to be the default position of the vast majority of financial commentators.

Despite what's going on, this is a dead cat bounce. They all know this 100 accurately for sure. and all of these commentators seemed massively surprised when the FED announced an increase of 25 basis points. I mean I Have absolutely no idea who was actually surprised by the increase, seeing as it was so obvious and pretty much universally forecasted for the last week or so.

But what was even more surprising to this gaggle of panic Peddlers was this paragraph right at the end of the Fed's announcement. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic. Outlook The committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of committee's goals. Just a reminder, the committee's goals are to ensure that inflation moves down steadily towards a two percent mark.

It is to ensure that employment remains strong, and it is to ensure that the rates are appropriate to meet those two objectives. That's it. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. They literally tell you what it is that they are going to do I Don't think most of the Doom and Gloom crowd actually read this paragraph because it was right at the bottom of the announcement.

and you know, reading a whole page of text is probably way too much effort, but this paragraph says that the FED are in fact not here as donkeys to destroy the economy because they're so stupid and crash the stock market. But they will actually base future decisions on new data coming out and the next Fed meeting will happen at the end of March. Which means we have not one but two months of inflation and other updates to look at before they reconvene. and everyone is saying that the FED will just keep on hiking, just you know, less fast.

The stock market right now is certain. It seems that the next meeting will see a hundred percent 25 basis point hike and so will the one after that in early May. It's funny how time shift perspectives because people were certain that the rate hike we're seeing right now would be a lot higher just a few weeks back. It was only a few weeks ago that everyone was certain that we are going to see a huge hike in January because duh, J Powers Hawkish He said words in the speech and my girl, let's do a Facebook thumbnail.

There is no way back. Sell your stocks, sell your house is all coming right down. That is roughly the summary of all the advice that was all over every Finance YouTube channel all over social media on CNBC you name it. Remember when the Market was down, how Chicken Little was out, telling you to sell all of your stocks and how it's definitely going to drop a minute? Lee Of course the FED is here to destroy the market, or when everyone was telling you to sell Tesla stock at a hundred dollars because it's going all the way down to sixty dollars.

Well where the are these idiots When the market goes back up. They seem to all come out of their dark Corners out of their mom's basements, wherever the it is that they're hiding. When the markets drop to sell the Doom and Gloom because you get the views, people are panicking, they want to know what's happening. but then the market goes up and crickets Michael Berry even temporarily deleted his Twitter account.

I You're not After two of some of the biggest ever days from the NASDAQ that immediately followed his tweet telling everyone to sell although he seems to have restored his account in the last few minutes. But hey, I pay way too much attention and I've wasted too much time talking about all this noise despite telling you that you should ignore it. So I am sorry, let's talk about what's actually important. Oil price is down to 75.

The EU UK Us and other countries around the world have now banned Russian oil altogether. Russian Supplies to these countries has collapsed pretty much all the way to zero. And while initially this set in panic and the oil price skyrocketed, half a year or a year later, the world has calmed down and realized that the global oil game is actually a zero-sum game. After all, it just means that Russia now has to sell oil in a much more Awkward way, ship it much further, offer much, much bigger discounts to countries like China and India.

While the rest of the world's oil prices normalize gas is not a zero-sum game because gas pipelines don't get built overnight, so the risk there was higher. but it sounds like Europe's middle finger to Russia has worked perfectly. European Gas storage is at an all-time high as we head towards the end of the winter. Norway In the Netherlands have scaled production of natural gas in an incredibly expedient fashion.

the US is sending unprecedented levels of liquify natural gas across the Atlantic and the result is the lowest gas price since April to 2001. Way way lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine even started. And look at the last 12 months on this chart: January Gas prices fell below January 12 months ago. So inflation on natural gas the commodity is now negative for January, We already know this inflation on natural gas for February is heading to be very negative.

much more strongly negative. and these are the two months worth of data that will feed into inflation day indirectly. I Get it before the next Fed committee meeting. The picture is exactly the same with oil.

So as I've been saying for two to three months now, the energy part of inflation is going to look very negative in the coming months. See how the oil price was dancing around the 100 Mark in March April May and June? Well, if it stays at around the 75 Mark that has been hovering at for a while now, that'll be a minus 25 input filtering through into inflation. Gas prices are currently sitting at minus 60 to minus 70 percent. You heard that right.

Minus 70 percent. From the level that we saw last summer, that data will be feeding directly and indirectly through other parts of the CPI index into inflation reads over the next two months. Aside from the weird situation with eggs in the US, food prices are also slowing down in terms of their rate of growth, certainly not growing anything like they did last summer. Rent inflation is falling, which will help suppress the shelter part of the CPI index.

At some point later this year, prices of new cars are falling Tesla which is producing two of the 10 most bought cars in the US Slash their prices by up to twenty percent. Ford Just announced that they are slashing their prices too. Prices of used cars are now finally falling sharply as well. After a weird rise following the pandemic, People are being much more careful with spending their money because of this perception of a huge economic uncertainty in imminent collapse of the media has sold the world.

But data released yesterday says that the number of job openings in the US increase in December to 11 million. In a separate release yesterday, unemployment data came in at 3.3 in December significantly better than the 3.7 percent in the previous year. Income growth is slowly accelerating, and although it's still below inflation, data from two days ago has Private Industry compensation going up 5.1 percent year on year in December and 4.8 percent for state employees. The gap between the wage increases and the inflation is shrinking very fast, and this is very critical to people's ability to spend in two months time.

When the next federal committee meeting happens. this Gap could get Mighty close to zero what with so many of the critical inflation companies. we just discussed trending down or going negative. And here's the thing.

unlike all of the fortune teller, Traders I Don't claim to know what the stock market is going to do I don't know. They don't know either, even if they pretend otherwise. when you short a stock, the maximum amount that you can possibly make is 100 on the money. If it just so happens that the company you're shorting goes bankrupt, the stock goes, becomes worthless and is going down to zero.

The potential downside, though, is unlimited because people shorting the market will often double down on their position as they are on the way to being liquidated on their positions and they'll just go worse and worse as the market goes up. I Personally do not play stupid games to win stupid prizes and I prefer having unlimited upside with a limited downside which is what a regular normal investing in Long positions gives you. But here is something that I do know: I Do not give a about noise I don't give a about random famous people on what they think I look at the data and I hate to sound like a broken record because I just say the same thing but so should you. You should look at the numbers.

You should look at the data because numbers don't have emotions. Numbers can sometimes be driven in part, sometimes affected by emotions driving the market. But in the long term, noise is irrelevant. Short-term movements are irrelevant I am looking at the data and I personally haven't felt this positive about all of this economic data in a long, long time.

While everyone around me seems to be screaming the worst ever Financial crashes coming, saying everyone needs to batten down the hatches, sell absolutely everything. The key thing is, don't listen to anyone making random short-term guesses. me included. Look at the numbers, follow the numbers, see what the numbers are doing, then study the reasons that cause the numbers to be doing whatever it is that they're doing, and then make up your own mind as to what you think.

If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching! I Really appreciate it and as always I'll see you guys later Foreign.