Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open live stream, so today we got to figure out. When is this stock market pain going to end uh, and one of the things that i think is very interesting is uh looking at uh when, when we have uh supply chains, catch back up and inventory catch back up, do we actually think that prices are going To come down that that is the big question is that when will businesses stop raising prices? Because when businesses stop raising prices, then - and consumers stop essentially being willing to pay these higher prices, then maybe we could finally see a relaxation of of of the inflationary concerns and when we have less inflationary concerns and no concerns about global growth, then maybe things just Settle down well, what's fascinating is uh. We had peloton, give us a little bit of an example today. So a peloton this morning reported earnings and uh.

I i you know, don't don't know if you need a lot of uh a lot of help to uh guess whether those earthings were good or bad uh, but i will uh go ahead and tell you exactly what they were. Uh peloton uh ended up uh, confirming that their ceo will be stepping down they. Uh uh fell about 12 percent uh in pre-market uh at some of the right when they initially announced uh their losses. Uh peloton is cutting about 2 800 jobs affecting about 20 of uh corporate positions.

Uh we've got, let's see here, peloton to cut roughly 800 million in annual costs and reduce capital expenditures by 150. Mil and you've got, and i know this is peloton right. So it's uh, it's going! Okay! Well, we we, we know things are bad at peloton, but what's what was really fascinating? Out of you know the numbers that we got wasn't so much that obviously they're cutting jobs. Their ceo is stepping down uh their their losses, uh their projected next quarter.

Losses are going to be somewhere between 125 to 140, mil rather than the 18 mil that was expected. Uh their revenue is, is going to be somewhere around 20 to 30 percent. Less than expected, based on their guidance uh their their forecast for the year, was down about 20. I mean everything was pretty pretty miserable uh in the in the peloton quarter, uh they even had less uh digital subscribers than expected.

They had 862 000 digital uh subscribers versus the 906 000 expected. But what was really incredible was, after all of the dust settled of their earnings call, they said hey what about all of the inventory y'all have what about all of these extra bikes? Why don't you just do what kathy woods says and sell the bikes cheaper? So you can get more customers and what happened? The answer was: no. They are going to use this extra supply to sell it over time at full price. They don't actually expect to lower prices.

If anything, it seems like they're kind of implying just like all the other companies that they have pricing power and that, even though peloton's getting destroyed uh, you know by this last earnings. What are they doing? They're saying nah? We don't need to cut prices, it's not the prices, the prices can stay high and that that to me was really really surprising uh. So when i, when i was read, you know they just had their earnings called uh, and so a lot of folks have been paying attention to this one because peloton's obviously been a big story here: uh and uh. That's that's crazy! So it that kind of makes me wonder.

Okay, at what point do we actually see prices uh come down now, one of the cool things about. I know it's a cool thing, it's kind of harsh to do, but one of the cool things about inflation is that if prices just stay high like, for example, peloton, you know and they've actually been reducing the cost of their bike over the last uh six to 12 months, but one of the neat things is: if they uh keep prices stable. If manufacturers keep prices stable and they don't actually raise prices, then inflation ends up staying flat and we end up with zero inflation right. The issue is: does our economy slow at the same time inflation slows, uh and and then do we then go into a slowing economy, uh or a potential, potentially recessionary economy or does the economy keep booming inflation keeps going and then we end up getting squeezed into A more difficult, uh tightening period - you know, one of the things that's funny is a lot of folks.

We were talking about this yesterday as well. A lot of folks keep making this argument that hey like the federal reserve's tightening cycle, it's priced in, like don't worry about it. The market's already pricing, in five rate hikes some people say. Seven rate hikes market seems okay, with seven or with five who cares whatever yeah the problem is uh.

Those might not be anywhere near enough. The fact that five rate hikes gets us to you know one point: two: five percent: it's still a joke uh compared to where we were when we cut rates during the pandemic, i mean i'll, never forget the day. We were like two and a quarter percent and rates and jerome powell on a sunday frantically cuts rates to zero. I'm, like oh man, jpal doing work on a sunday refinance everything we're about to go shopping.

That was very true, but anyway, uh harley davidson also uh provided some uh some guidance here uh. They mentioned that in the first quarter here their chip availability remains uh challenged that uh moderate chip availability improvement is expected in the latter half of 2022 uh. Now that's moderate chip availability improvement. I'm seeing this a lot by the way.

They're, not saying things are going to be solved by the second by the second half of 2022.. Just that thing should hopefully get better, which is good. You know we're just seeing a little bit of some peaking and used car prices as well. Uh q4 motorcycle shipments uh coming in at 29 000 versus uh, just under twenty thousand uh twenty seven thousand estimated.

So really nice beat harley davidson davidson's, actually up nine. It was up nine percent at one point here: uh adjusted eps beat uh revenue b and they do see. Let's see what else do we have here? Uh operating margin improvement. I mean again raising prices yeah, okay, let's see here.

If there's any other note here, not really yeah, okay still expecting five to ten percent revenue growth for the year yeah, so uh er emerging. Oh that's, interesting, north american motorcycle sales up eight percent, but emerging market uh motorcycle sales down seven percent. You know it's kind of like possibly and i'm not sure how much china or uh harley davidson - i i don't invest in harley, so i don't know, but one of the things that i'd be thinking of that i'd want to look at is how much does harley Sell in in a place like china or how many motorcycles get sold in place like china uh and how much are we really seeing that economy slow down in china? Because that's that's another thing i think gets missed. I mean you know, i know ray dalio is: is a big bull on china? Hey prices are low uh the government's accommodative.

Their central bank is accommodative, that's great, but if your economy is starting to flounder under the uh real estate debt crisis of evergrand yeah, that's that's scary, uh! That's what i mean i know there are. A lot of folks are like ah everything's gon na be fine with evergrand uh and, and you know so far, things have been playing out decently. But you know who knows if that's just the canary in the coal mine for uh uh, for a debt crisis in china and uh? I i don't know if betting on china and that recovery of that consumer and i've been saying that this is not new. I mean i've been saying this for like six months, i'm i'm nervous about that the recovery in china i mean you even had cat sell off like 6.6 today in china, that's the the battery facility, uh tesla, actually buys a lot of batteries from them.

It's down! Six point: six percent: today, it's a massive battery company, it's crazy uh! I i try to look at the chinese markets as well. Uh, let's see here, uh treasuries yeah, oh okay, yeah! So a little bit more drama in the treasury's market. Let's see, we've got uh the dow's, actually up almost a quarter right now, uh, but uh. We've got s p, roughly flat, nasdaq coming down about point two percent and we have oil relaxing a little bit.

This relaxation in oil not only came with this u.s. Iran talk, but also when macron president of france seems to be talking potentially putin off of the ledge. Who knows you know you get so much so much confusing information uh like apparently, there were reports that russia is sending more blood to the front lines and it's like really so then you look up the shelf life of blood and it's like okay. Well, if you freeze it, it could actually last years uh depending on what coagulants you use and such so so maybe that doesn't necessarily mean anything but anyway um a little bit of a relaxation here in oil.

But that has not helped this, and that is the uh. The 10-year treasury bond this by the way is what affects uh mortgage interest rates, and it's just every day. It's just been taken up in february here so uh right now sitting at 1.95 and we are almost uh at two percent here. So what's wild to me, though, is that the break-even rates haven't really moved, i'm going to take another peak here.

Let's see, let's do five here, uh five year break evens by the way are your inflation expectations. You take the difference of the yield and tips which are negative and no they're stable. It's really it's quite odd yeah that the the break-even rates are are remaining stable. I i actually find that concerning, because we get more and more information that inflation, uh and pricing power of businesses is stronger and inflation is expected to come in higher and the break-even rates aren't moving and to me, one of the reasons that's potentially concerning is either The bond market knows that it's all going to go away, that inflation's going to go away and it's all going to be okay or we're actually not properly pricing in uh the the amount of inflation that could happen.

Now you kind of have to pick your own side on that one all right. Let me just try 10-2 turn here to your 10-year two-year, so the 10-2 is also the yield curve and that's some see it as an indicator. A recession indicator right, the more it goes to zero, the more likely you have uh a recession, uh. Okay, so yeah i mean february, it's been pretty low, uh! It's it's bobbed up a tiny little bit like if you really want to get into like the week.

It's bobbed up a tiny little bit within february, which is nice, we're going to get that get the yield curve wider a little bit more of a sign of a stronger economy but uh it even really. The nature of that is that you don't really want to get compensated uh more for a two or more or even close, to uh for a two-year bond, as you would for a 10-year bond. Does this make sense right? You would expect to get paid a lot more for a tenure, and so when you see the difference between the two converge to zero, it's like wait a minute. That's a sign of some bad expectations and and uh some some more flight to safety.

In the short term, it's kind of weird, especially since we know rates, are going up and i'm just like: why would you flee to bonds right now? I i don't know uh all right so uh, let's see here, talked about uh yeah. So, okay, title. What, when, when does the uh the wobble so to speak, end uh the wobble really ends, not just when we see certain categories. Uh start of pricing start becoming in coming in weaker, like uh.

What we've seen with with used cars. It doesn't just end when some categories start turning negative, probably not going to be enough. We're going to need to see that wages and rents and a large portion of the other categories are relatively starting to inflict to the downside in terms of pricing and when that occurs. That, i think, is when, when uh, when we get a little bit more enthusiastic about uh markets or uh jpeg well, which could actually lead to uh, so it could happen at the same time rather than or could be an ant uh j-pal.

You know relaxes a little bit some of the monetary tightening and we end up in just uh. You know continued continuous continuously, accommodative uh monetary regime, so uh another one that was interesting was cisco uh, unlike tyson uh, the the meat manufacturer - and i don't know everything that uh cisco does. Let's see here, i thought that they make like cooking oils and stuff like that. Let me see s-y-s-c-o wholesale restaurant food distributor, uh-huh marketing and distributing food products; small wares kitchen equipment, tabletop to restaurant, interesting; okay, so so they're, okay, they're, like logistics, got it.

So they don't necessarily make the food okay got it all right, so this company saw uh their sales, actually uh increased 16.3 billion versus 15.9. Just this morning. Their earnings, though, actually came in lower 57 cents versus 70 cents and uh. They blamed the covid environment for higher costs.

Uh yeah, i really haven't mentioned anything else. That's interesting! All right, uh, okay, all right! So what else? Well, let's see here so we talked about ukraine uh. Let's see we talked about oh uh. We have not yet talked about uh nvidia is now officially uh abandoned the uh 66 billion purchase of softbank's arm bowing to regulatory pressure.

Kathy er apple apple picked up ai music, um ooh, kathy wood offloaded. The most twitter shares since last may just days before earnings. It's interesting because i mean that seems relatively consistent with what she said in her last video, which uh was was her expectation that uh the consumers are actually slowing down. Oh wow yeah on rk she uploaded 3.6 million shares.

What is that now? Like 40 bucks? Let's see twitter 36, so 3.6 million times 36. That's about 130 million dollars worth right. There of twitter plus another 300k shares in arc w wow. That's quite interesting, uh all right, interesting and she bought more roblox, uh and actually she's buying tesla again, which is very interesting because she's been selling it.

She bought 20 almost 24 000 shares of tesla. It's really fascinating because she had been selling tesla like crazy and now now it's like she's picking it up again a little bit and the pricing hasn't been like horribly different. I mean. Maybe it's a little bit lower right now, but uh it it just.

I think she's been getting a lot of pressure about like hey, why? Why are you selling and lowering your allocation to your winners like tesla? You know when those are the ones that that kind of set up your fund, right, uh or or specifically, tesla. I don't know, but anyway, so she did a little bit of buying yesterday, all right so tesla over twitter. I, that is also a bet that i would make, but anyway uh. So what do we got? Let's, let's take a look at some of this.

Let's see here all right, so faraday, futures uh is actually four percent faraday's at four dollars, though wow four point: two dollars: geez uh norwegian cruise lines up a couple percent uh look at the peloton rebound, my goodness it fell in the after hours a lot. It's actually up two percent right now. That's kind of funny! Yeah! Look at this! You you closed yesterday, here at about 29.50, it fell all the way to 2560, and then it's just immediate bye, bye, bye, bye. So it's actually positive after these terrible uh earnings.

It is possible - and sometimes this happens on purpose. It is possible that the ceo leaving is enough for markets to say hey. You know what okay all right, we're gon na give this uh we're gon na give this a shot, and we still have those acquisition. Uh potentials so we're gon na keep betting on this one, but that's that's quite odd.

Soaring costs for vegetable oils are an ever-growing threat to india's effort to bring inflation under control. Yeah. That's not good! So, let's see here, okay, the dollar index is not dropping. Somebody donated five dollars to say the dollar index is not dropping showing a shortage of dollars.

Well, i think there's there's uh, you know, even though we poop on the dollar it it's still deemed to be one of the safest assets in the world uh. You know and - and i i really get tired about the argument that and and you hear this one all over, but it's quite interesting - you know we regularly hear that. Oh well, i mean, if there's high inflation, you don't want to be in cash, because your purchasing power goes down. Well, that only matters, and that's only true if what you're buying is becoming more expensive, if what you want to buy is becoming less expensive.

Your purchasing power is going up. That's deflation, but anyway yeah, that's uh, that's quite interesting! Yeah dollar not dropping, is probably a sign of just uh global concerns. Global nervousness, so all right, let's see here. Okay, so tattoo chefs at 12, bucks aurora cannabis, wow, aurora cannabis at 4.26.

Wasn't this like a 30 company at one point: uh! No, no, never mind! Okay, maybe maybe i'm thinking way back yeah? Well, i mean way back, but that was in 19 huh. I don't know it's cannabis. A lot of bets were made on biden. A lot of bets were made on biden that uh something was going to be able to happen there all right.

Let's see here, canadian power, one points so, okay in terms of what we have in green here beyond lidar ai, it's been so far. We saw yesterday yesterday we had really interesting star where, where everything just ran, uh the first, the first 10 minutes uh lasted for about an hour hour and a half and then really started bleeding down and selling down mid to uh end of day. At the end of the day, sell down is always a bummer, especially if you're trading and you're holding on but uh yeah, let's see backed holdings had an insane day. Yesterday i mean up 33, but also down six percent right now and that's you know oftentimes what you get here.

Is you get a lot of speculation that oh well btc just ran so much over the weekend? Maybe it'll just keep running and it really hasn't been uh and keep in mind if you want to trade. Ftx also has an app. I know you all know that live streams brought to you by ftx, which in the us you can go to matt kevin.com ftx. Us but check out their trading platform and their app.

The app is absolutely beautiful by the way, really really cool check that out links down below so uh. Look at airbnb 3.9 simon property group, three percent, simon property group reported. I read the earnings call and i have to say it was the most boring uh app uh, i'm sorry it was the most boring earnings. Call that i uh i really ever read because they literally didn't tell us anything.

I mean it was so terrible uh. Just about how they were, you know, trying to uh raise lease rates, but they were having pricing difficulties, which is not a surprise, like the only companies that i've seen saying they have. Pricing challenges are like commercial landlords and by commercial. I should clarify like office space, landlords right or or um retail yeah.

That's the only place, i'm seeing weakness, but not in not in real estate. Not a like uh housing is is just on freaking fire, it's nuts um anyway. Okay! So, let's see here, you know. What's what i thought was really interesting as well is yesterday everybody was quoting this jpm guy that i talked about.

Also at the beginning of the day, this jp morgan guy was like oh uh. We uh, you know we think now. You know we think there's too much fear priced into the market, it's time to buy stocks, and that was yesterday. So you get an analyst at jp morgan's like it's.

We're at a bottom buy, buy everything right and then today, literally the next day, they put somebody else on the news also from jpmorgan, and it says the fed may destabilize markets if it turns more aggressive and unpredictable said david kelly, chief global strategist, at jpmorgan, its Messaging is quote frankly, worrying, end quote and may lead to a flatter yield curve and tighter or trigger concerns that the economy will slow too much in march of 2023, and then investors should prepare to switch towards long-duration assets and tilt toward value and global stocks dude. Why did they put these people from jp morgan up jp morgan's pissing me off now. I've complained about jp morgan, a lot in the past. Now i'm complaining about them even more because this is just like now, you're just messing with people's emotions.

This is wrong. Uh! You know it's kind of like when jp morgan's like nicola. Yes, we are investing in nicola. Why? Because it has a great story like that, was a sign of a bubble right there.

It's like oh yeah, we're investing in in this startup because it has a good story: what freaking morons uh anyway. So, let's see here, uh, okay, not too much drama. Really, though i mean simon property group, snapchat pfizer these guys down three to five percent. I'm gon na go look really quick what pfizer's complaining about because they just had earnings.

So, let's see what pfizer's beef is. Okay, let's go fire there. We go pfe all right yeah. I know there are different people who work at jpm with different opinions, but what you have to realize is people just put on twitter, jp morgan says this and then jpmorgan says you know it's it's the summary that people get nobody's actually quoting the name of the Analyst right uh it.

You know it should be like you're right i mean they should say like. Oh one, random analyst thinks this the chief investment officer of global strategies that jpm thinks this. That's fine, but but usually that's not what you see on twitter. That's pretty bad anyway.

Uh, let's see here. Okay, so pfizer finds your c. Oh, oh, get ready for this one you're all gon na love. This one pfizer sees need for another booster shot, says top scientist get ready.

Uh! Let's see here, working to develop. Meanwhile, they're working to develop a new cova treatment, uh yeah, you know, i don't know i'll - tell you. Lauren was pissed. Yesterday uh she was like.

Why is it that i saw she she had covered at the beginning of the years? Like january 1st, it was a nice new year's gift, all right, she's like. Why is it that she says this? I got covert the worst, yet i just got a booster. You know a month ago, like literally perfect timing, to have the best defenses, so she's triple vaxxed uh. You know it gets a booster a month before and uh and it has and has not only bad symptoms but uh.

You know it wasn't terrible. It was on me uh, but uh, but now lingering feelings like she's had to double her asthma medication, just as an example which is part of kind of just like covert still remaining in your system. Anyways just complaining about that yesterday and i'm like wow it sucks. You know i mean who knows you know it could have always been worse right, but anyway it's it's sad, yeah, okay, anyway, so, let's see here what else did they? What the that pfizer tell us, finds your finest advisor talking about paxlovid the pill for covin uh.

It looks like their revenue forecast missed, sees 2022 revenue at a midpoint of about 100 bill, and the estimate was 106. revenue came in in the fourth quarter at 23.8 versus a 24.18 expected. So okay looks like slight miss there, so that just came in this morning. The morning earnings are fun: pfeister sees the need for more profit.

Oh god, uh yeah they'll cancel you. You should have a backup streaming platform before you get joe rogan. No, i don't know all right. So, let's uh we're going to quickly see what suits you're saying here.

Let's see surging yields have yet to do the tricks for the trick for banks, hedge funds, blah blah blah blah all right, whatever, okay, so we're a minute away from the open uh. If, if we have anything like what happened in china, it's gon na suck today, but uh - hopefully not hopefully it goes well so we'll see and and china is not the best indicator for what's gon na happen in the u.s. Not that that wasn't my titanic video or anything not kidding so yeah, let's take a look at some of the indices as we go in okay. So so far, no no, like euphoria, coming uh, at least to the nasdaq uh in the minute here before cl before the open spy sitting at uh down about 0.12 arc down 0.86 here and tesla, i think, is down fractionally as well: yeah barely 0.13.

Who cares all right? Well, let's see what happens and remember. This video is brought to you by ftx check out their links in the description down below for trading crypto, which has been a lot of volatility, a lot of money to be made in trading crypto. If you trade it anyway, let's get the bell, keeps going down, go show you! It is not past that kind of give up liquidation phase. Let's get the opening bell here at the cnbc, real-time exchange at the big board.

It's the naacp and the impact shares etf. Celebrating black history month at the nasdaq black women on board the organization celebrating 50 years of black women serving on public boards, so uh some of the other names i mean that looks about 60 green there. That's not too miserable, we'll see how things are actually moving. Uh, i do want to look quickly while we wait for the first minute to stabilize here the first minute's, always a joke.

Let's see here, i'm looking quickly at bp, which is a stock, that's been killing it and which makes sense, looks like they completed about 500 million of buybacks we're going to continue to buy back their debts from their earnings, call uh, increasing opportunities in the energy transition. Uh trying to see, if there's anything else, i can see here. Okay, here we go so bp earnings, bp net came in at 4.07 billion versus 3.87, so as expected, more profitable they're going to do another 1.5 billion of share buybacks, i mean they, it's just so. Freaking much money uh their epsb, it's no surprise.

Eps rev, all this stuff beat and they're trying to get to net zero by 2025.. Oh, that's a nice thing to say anyway, see yeah. This is this. Is why, like the first minute, i always think is funny because look at this like this is tesla the divergence right here at the open.

This is velodyne uh this this yesterday we were looking at velodyne. It was up like 48. Remember yesterday, uh in after hours. Folks were like look at validation.

Look at valentine, i don't know, i look and i'm like. Okay, amazon bought some warrants like why. Why do we care? They bought some options and the thing ran to like seven dollars a share yesterday and i'm like this is insane. I i i remember saying yesterday in the stream i'm like i, i don't understand this.

I think this is nonsensical. They they've been business partners. This is no news to me, so it wasn't something i wanted to buy or trade by any means uh, and so you saw this insanity right here and i do feel like in a thinly traded stock. Like this, i mean look at this during the open.

The thing had traded 7, 000 shares, you know, uh and, and so all of a sudden you get this this insane volume higher than during the open in after hours and and the things skyrockets like 50. No surprise the thing's just plummeting uh back back to earth. Here because it's like, i was no news, so be careful about the smaller like penny stocks, especially thinly traded ones. These are the ones that could just totally ream you uh, you know you think it's! It's somehow really impressive news.

It's just trash uh anyway, so uh. Okay, uh back holdings selling down a little bit here. So a little bit of a crypto draw down here, we've got uh back holdings down about nine percent. You know.

What's also interesting is robin hood was down yesterday like the stock was down yesterday. I don't know if the app was down uh, but it anyway they were down yesterday uh, while while a lot of the other trading brokers were actually up uh and now they're down again uh kind of kind of painful there for robin hood back to now. 13. 13 uh.

You know i uh with with crypto trading declines and like this, like never-ending weight for crypto wallets. I don't think people are very enthused here that sucks uh snap, but down about 5.5 trying to rebound a little bit here on the minute. Let's see okay, so these are our large general motors. Why is gm dropping five percent of the open? That's interesting clownflare had this insane run yesterday to like 116 and now down about three point: four percent again reviewing down a little bit here: uh, that's actually a sharp drop here in rivian 2.8 percent.

Just all of a sudden is anything running. Let's try to find out where the trading theme is, how do you get discord back, go to discord.com, download the app and then type into your browsermetkevin.com chat, so nothing's really popping off here. Uh you've got you know. Even ai's slowed down a little bit: alibaba alibaba's taking off that's quite interesting uh if anything, alibaba's the mover right now, piton, given up jpm's coming up a little bit so jpm alibaba.

Those seem interesting right now for for runs. If you want a short look at robin hood jesus - oh my gosh, i shouldn't say that uh, it's bad, okay, blizzard! No, i don't! Let me see what tesla was the one we were looking at. First yeah. Look at that.

I mean that it's just geez down to it just fell down to 894. Now it's popping up again here, but i do think it's very very interesting this this. The first minute is, is such a disaster uh first minute or two uh. It really probably even extends the first like 30 minutes and try to get the direction of the market.

It's just crazy, uh but anyway, okay. So a firm does report this week and so does end phase. So these will be quite interesting, a firm's mostly flat right now. I believe, n phase is two.

Then phase yeah down almost a percent here, uh and whack uh dwack, i mean dwight's sitting at 80. Bucks, like you, you can't can't be mad at dwack, jack's been kicking butt, okay, where'd gm go general motors, so yeah general motors - i don't know, what's happening here, i'm gon na. Look this one up, really quick! Let me see what the suits are saying. Oh end phase reports today is that so, let's see about that yeah i was thinking about.

I might actually play that one and uh, of course send out an alert earnings when i when and if i do uh, so today's earnings after the bell. So we cover oh yeah, ooh apps end phase, lift trivago, corsair xpo logistics, ooh yeah these. These could be very. We got a nice nice set there chipotle today, oh wow, okay chipotle's always been the one that raises prices, even though their costs don't go up, which is just more profit right, and so that's an interesting uh concept.

Uh. But i'd like to see some talk about chips and forecasts at corsair gaming uh. So far the gaming stocks have not been doing well, so we'll see uh. I want to see how the chips are affecting end phase and how their new iq8 is going.

Obviously ipo or xpo logistics uh. When are we going to see some relaxation pain there uh and then apps could be interesting for for um advertising and uh app dev, but we'll see okay. So, let's quickly see what's going on with gm general robot, all right, general motors uh ford, of course, had to halt some production for maquis and some other vehicle production and gm uh downgraded by morgan stanley to equal weight from overweight, with a new price target cut Down to fifty five dollars from seventy five dollars, now people put a lot of weight on these these ratings for it to move five percent. After that gee, i guess all you have to do - is really buy.

Some puts and then put out a new stock rating and there you go it's terrible, but don't worry, we have an efficient market or at least that's the hypothesis uh all right. Well, let's see what the suits are saying right now: let's see tech and healthcare stocks are poised to underperform. Today, yeah more talk about meta being the worst performer yeah, and this is also very interesting, because i this is what i've been seeing too, is that people seem to be spending more money uh. So i always i'm always looking for things that are the opposite of what what i'm looking at.

As everyone knows, high inflation is one of the reasons why the fed has been worried about the stock market or where the fed hasn't been worried about the stock market volatility and won't, let it get in the way of rate hikes. But the other thing is that growth seems to be doing just fine. Not only is there no evidence of a slowdown, oh that's a burn on kathy wood. Anyway, some measures seem to be gathering steam.

Neil duta of a renaissance macro research has been pointing out that anxiety about the pandemic is dropping and people are planning, travel more and overall consumption still seems to be gathering steam right now it doesn't look like the economy is going to be derailed by some rate Hikes and as such the cycle is full speed ahead, see i agree with that uh, i'm, i'm looking for things that are saying: okay, the market's definitely slowing down right or the economy is slowing down. I don't like what peter schiff mentioned yesterday about the atlanta fed uh real, like the gdp now indicator for for q1, but i also don't fully know the mechanics of how they measure that, and so i need to study that a little bit more uh but uh. But other than that it seems like everywhere, you look, people are spending more money and we've got another stemi check coming right. I mean that this second half of the child tax credit - that is a semi check.

Now somebody left a comment. You know a couple days ago: they're like oh well, you know i might be getting uh fifteen to eighteen hundred dollars for my child, but uh my tax refund this year is actually going to be less than i expected. I'm like the anecdote of what happened with your personal tax situation, does not remove the fact that you are getting an additional fifteen to eighteen hundred dollars per child. It just means you either had less deductions or more income.

It has, literally literally absolutely nothing to do with the fact that you are getting this extra money, nothing to do with that. You are getting this extra money if you spent it because you had to pay more in taxes, that's your problem, uh, but but that money is coming so the anecdote of people's personal tax situations, i think, is terrible, very, very uneducated about taxes, but anyway um. So, okay, let's see how the sticks are moving all right, so i'm honestly surprised that velodyne is still even 20 up. It's just it makes no sense.

Chegg did great on earnings yesterday. I cannot believe, though, that peloton is getting bought up after this disaster yeah. So, let's see here, amgen, okay, alibaba's still kicking it killing it. Here i mean this.

This is uh this. This is a good good move here. Yeah, if you want to know my thoughts about crypto watch the market open. Yesterday i went through some good ta uh and and my very clear thoughts, uh simon property, trying to recover okay, i mean this is a very benign open, i have to say, like nothing's, really moving in an extreme way in either direction.

I think this is just a a tenuous market, uh or maybe i should say more, like tentative market everybody's, just kind of like all right. What's the, what are the inflation numbers going to look like this is coinbase uh, that's fair! You know that's thursday morning set your alarm thursday morning. 5. 30 a.m.

That's going to be. This will be something look at that tesla actually went positive. These little fluctuations mean very little uh yeah i mean it went from like negative point, one to positive point. One here so very, very little movement here, which is also some quite frankly, a little bit of a frustrating market to, in some cases, trade-in unless you're, taking advantage of certain option, strategies which which take advantage of of little movement.

But if we're gon na have a little movement day here, it's certainly a lot harder to just swing. A shorter swing, a swing along unless you're playing alibaba - i mean this one's so far, since the start has been doing very nice and all of a sudden microvision is killing it. Why? Let's take a look at what's going on with microvision? If this is just trading activity or what's going on over here kevin you just going to ignore the deficit, why why who says i'm ignoring something? I understand that we have a juicy juicy deficit. What do you want me to say about it? Uh all right.

Let's go embezz, and this you know even the pentagon yesterday was complaining about how it's taking them longer, to figure out how much money they need from the government, because inflation has been so bad that they're, like yeah. We we need a certain amount of missiles and the money that we got is not um uh, not gon na be enough. Uh lol, yeah, uh, valadyn surge on amazon pack, an overreaction, no kidding. That's literally what i said as it was happening.

Thing went up. 63 of its high that's insane uh, there's actually no news on microvision, so it's possible that that people are just looking at uh. You know like velodyne or whatever and uh they're they're uh uh. What's it called uh trading mviz because they think? Oh, i honestly think the markets sometimes are just this stupid.

It's like oh well, well, valentine's up, you know you know. What's not up is microvision, it's a it's another lidar company. Let's buy that one! Whatever i mean, if you want to trade it it's fine uh, but uh, you know if, if uh, if you're, looking at it thinking, oh, this is gon na, be a long-term boost here to your migration. It will sync twice, i will think twice uh, but it's doing very well right now, so if it is something to trade, maybe who knows who knows maybe maybe you're getting the velodyne people coming over uh.

Okay, so is, is anything getting more extreme here we got sympathy momentum there. You go all right. Stop you do the journalist jobs they're, taking notes, though it's funny um, all right. Gm gm still falling six percent here uh.

I think ford. If there's sympathy momentum, it's probably forward right now, uh, i agree with it. You know if gm gets downgraded, it's like! Oh! If gm gets downgraded by morgan stanley and falls five percent, maybe ford will too yeah whatever uh, okay, robin hood's, trying to recover from some of its pain here, not a lot of deep red, though uh, probably the indices, i would guess, are near flat or slightly Up yeah, okay, nasdaq's 0.08 big deal spy 0.08 percent. Who cares? I mean this is just a chill day so netflix and chill, or do we not say that anymore? You know what is running, though, is peloton.

I mean look at this. It keeps pushing after just this disaster, it really started running when they confirmed that they were cutting jobs and getting rid of their ceo, it's kind of funny, because in the titanic, video uh that i edited together, we have the peloton ceo right if he gets a Label in there it's kind of funny because well no, never mind okay, so yeah a lot of speculation again, the piton speculation like why. Why would this go up speculation about the acquisition? That's it! That's! It uh enthusiasm over uh over that potential acquisition, uh. Of course, velodyne struggling over here, alibaba still climbing nicely here i mean five point: six percent on alibaba, it's 121! It's where it was like a couple days ago, yeah see we've kind of been bobbing around this floor over here, yeah chegg's not even pulling a peloton here.

You know there's some someone wrote a seeking alpha article like neo, to become dominant in global eevee market and, like don't get me wrong, i love neo, but dude and i didn't maybe i should have read it, but i didn't read it. I'm like what would possess you to say that at this point it's no it's not even close uh like we. Let's say that about lucid. I don't know, and i like neo again.

I want to make that clear. I like neo, but but it's it's it's so relatively small. Still in the ev space. You know well so far: uh 1.62 yeah there's this is boring.

The sticks aren't uh. Moving that much. I guess you get a shorted snap, that's down about five percent, but uh. Not much other than piton, okay, let's, let's go see if we can find some other news.

Oh there was a barons uh article that i wanted to look at yeah, yeah yeah. This was actually bullish, so so people keep telling me kevin. You got it. You got to be bullish, okay, all right, fine! So let's go read a bullish article and okay yeah.

Here we go all right. Let's figure this out together, despite jobs, blowout, here's a reason to bet on the less aggressive fed. Okay, all right, i'm i'm open-minded uh. Let's see here, the january jobs report was too good and that blowout numbers, especially considering omicron intensified concerns over aggressive monetary policy tightening but investors looking for a reason to believe the fed won't be quite as hawkish as feared can find one in a separate, less buzzy Data reported earlier this past week: yes, okay, uh: where is it where's the revisions? All this is up up up up.

That's fine, the j, the point, seven percent, in average hourly earnings. We talked about that the inflationary pressures phillips curve has risen from the dead okay. So where's the argument: uh okay, here the phillips curve - has come back with vengeance, meaning that fast falling unemployment suggests ongoing. Excuse me ongoing wage inflation.

I don't know why. That would be good. But okay, i mean people making more money is a good thing, but not great for the fed's purposes. Where's.

Your argument here, uh, let's see here, wait: okay, there we go: here's where the data becomes interesting. On thursday, the department of labor separately reported that non-farm productivity and unit labor costs soared at an annualized rate of 6.6 sequentially, almost double the rate that wall street expected now uh. One of the things, because i heard about this as well. One of my first reactions - and i don't know - but one of my first reactions to this is: did we have a change in labor productivity potentially because of uh, because that something changed with omicron you know, was the people who worked.

Did they have to be more productive because i'm pretty sure average hourly or average weekly hours worked, went down and if weekly hours worked went down, but we were still very productive? Does that potentially mean productivity went up just depends how they measure productivity, especially since they're annualizing it uh. This would be more like a point: five five-ish percent uh. You know monthly gain, but anyway, uh, let's see here. Unit labor costs are super important.

Okay, we know but uh. Where is this about productivity employment cost index? Okay senior combat yes, cause for optimism, um trying to get well. I don't a surprising decline in the unit. Labor costs in the fourth quarter suggests.

Inflationary pressures could ease okay, so they're, saying a couple things: one productivity and the decline in the employment cost index, which slowed unexpectedly uh in the fourth quarter, which is weird because labor prices, actually it went up which is interesting, so i'm gon na have to break This apart a little bit more uh, i productivity running at three and a half percent is no doubt optimistic. Yeah, okay! Well, i don't know, i don't know how i feel about it. I wan na feel good uh, but uh. I think that's gon na require a little bit more a little bit more searching man.

I should have shorted this look at velodine. I knew it was stupid. I don't even know if it lets me short. Does that, let's see i mean i'm not gon.

Na short, at this point anymore, all right, let's see here, um, does it well. I guess i guess it would yeah darn, or at least the prompt comes up but dang. I should have shorted it in the after hours yesterday next time. Next time i have that suspicion, i will do that.

On the other hand, peloton continues to run quite an impressive move for the day, uh, otherwise, mostly quiet snap and gm fallings uh gm on the downgrade. That makes me that does make me wonder: what's happening at snap, it's possible that snap is really just taking or falling back down, because of that insane like 50 day it had after earnings all right. Let's see here, you know. I always think this is such a such a funny comment.

People are like, oh, dr fudd, it's like what do you want me to say you want me to just lie to your face. You know if there's bad news, that's what i report. If there's good news, that's what i report you know, i i don't me, i don't make the news go, give me better cpi data, you don't want, you don't want fear, uncertainty and doubt then then go over uh to the thursday cpi data release and make it Six percent make it come in great, so i could go buy stocks again. Please make it plummet.

I would love that i would love nothing more because it is more stressful being outside the market than in the in the market. So it's just these like these. These allegations of, like oh, it's, doctor, fun or whatever it's like what the hell do you want me to do. You lie to you, it's so stupid.

It's really stupid uh. All right, oh snap, is offering convertible bonds. Oh, i see okay, due in 2028., 1.25 billion of convertible senior notes; okay, so they're raising money, uh all right - oh that makes sense, uh and they're they're. None of the stock's, not loving that you know it's actually kind of brilliant.

If you think about it, they they surged 50 after earnings and then uh. What do they immediately? Do? Let's raise money yeah, it's actually kind of funny, because the ceo one on cnbc is like we think, we're doing better than facebook we're killing it out there. We know tick tock's, a competitor, but our metrics are so much better on a per this that, whatever and and uh you know, i mean there were some things. He said that were a little humble which, which i thought was nice, but but the the overall message was like we're, freaking awesome and it's like okay, so the stock surges after earnings after well, because it fell like 30, 30 or 40 the day before it recovers.

All of that pain goes up like 50 cnbc goes, you know, pumps it with the ceo and then what the next day uh. You know one or two business days later. They they uh. They issue a bunch of convertible bonds.

You know which dilute shareholders - it's it's quite brilliant. I mean really, i have to say the uh. The the level of coordination in the market to really just screw people is, is quite impressive, uh and sad. It's it's terrible, uh lucid's down another three percent right now: a theta decay on the options.

Honestly, it's probably about three percent. Let me look here uh, because i've been short lucid, but i've also been trading uh. Let me see here: theta decay. I lose six and a half cents a day.

Well, that's not as bad. That's only a little over uh four depends what you paid. I guess that's about. Okay.

In in two days, you would lose about 3.2 percent, not that bad, yet uh, but still high point. Six percent but anyway that people always forget you got you, you don't know what theta decay is stocks of psychology money course is for you, you, you got ta. You know, look at that, uh all right, so snap, just hates this! Now it's down almost it's almost down: seven percent, just crazy uh, but then again it's also a wonderful rug, pull to do the convertible bond offering right after your hodlers went through like a crazy week. Last week i mean, and to some degree you know the company does get the money, so they have more cash, which gives them more resilience.

But in the short term, it's sometimes a little bit of a slap in the face because the the share price does go down. Okay is tesla, still green. Let's see here pay to decay, the greek god of time, uh yeah. No, this this is wishful thinking.

So so the theory here in this comment is that hey, if inflation expectations, let's say, are going up or inflation in general is going up and companies can raise prices to have higher margins, which is exactly what they're doing that's great. You know the the thesis is. Oh companies should do well right and and then therefore, stock prices shouldn't come down right. No, don't work that way.

The reason uh and tesla's actually popping on a little one minute right here: uh. The reason is, if we think we're gon na have a very aggressive fed and we get high inflationary numbers and we think there's the potential that the fed could crimp the economy at the same time as we have higher inflation and you start getting recessionary concerns or You start getting stagflationary concerns. The market has not priced in anything remotely close to those sorts of scenarios, the market's pricing in a smooth landing. So it don't matter how profitable apple is when their valuation gets cut.

You know from from whatever it is a 30 pe to 20. Let's just say as an example, i don't know exactly what it is right now uh. So the bigger boogeyman is the sentiment of the market and if sentiments of markets turns down, i don't care. How great your cash flow is? It's the same thing as rental properties or like uh, like multi-family real estate.

It doesn't it doesn't matter how stable your rents are. If evaluations change valuations change, so hopefully they don't. The real estate market has been incredibly incredibly resilient, yeah and, and it's just the demand is, is insane. I mean everything's selling with multiple offers.

It's crazy anyway, uh, okay, so you know what was interesting about tesla. Is that tesla actually reported some news that wasn't that great yesterday uh, i didn't think, but they were talking about how they removed a particular chip because of the uh supply shortages in china. Uh, and i think it was probably mostly fetish. But but what was somewhat annoying about it was anybody who wants to get fsd in the future in china who has this missing? Chip is now no longer just going to be able to get fsd via software update, they'll or over.

The air update they'll actually have to get this chip, reinstalled, which i suppose it's better to get the cars out than not especially if it doesn't affect safety, but still it was not uh, not not not that ideal. Uh yeah, it's harley davidson story. You know we covered their earnings at the beginning of the call or i haven't have to be in the call beginning of the live stream uh. Let's see what they're doing harley yeah harley's up ten percent.

Well, that's i'm gon na! Add them because i i like watching them uh, i watched i look at their earnings every so often, but i didn't actually have them on the list here. Okay, velodyne has almost gone back to no gain man. I should have just shorted it when i said: that's: okay, that's all right. I mean we knew.

This was ridiculous. It's what i said yesterday. I maintained that it's what i believed when we opened the live stream here and it's still what i believe this is the stupidest rally. I've ever seen.

I mean i've seen some pretty stupid rallies, but this is one of this. This one's definitely up there in terms of stupid, low volume, fake out rally. I just feel bad for for people who get caught on those you know. Imagine you bought veladyne yesterday uh as it's soaring right so you're like oh my gosh, i got you know.

I got the tweet all the volatility and stuff all the volume or whatever, and you buy this thing as it's soaring and let's say you buy it right here like 550 right and you're like oh my gosh, i just i just made an easy buck. 50 on my shares, then you go to sleep, you know and then you wake up and you wake up to 4 20. um yeah. It would just suck.

But i don't know, i guess that's what happens so. Okay, piton, i don't know if we're actually really going to get rejected over here at 34.28, but uh seems like we're. Relaxing a little bit jpm's, actually moving a little bit here. 2.77 see if bloom's got any news for us.

We talked about barons. I got to really look into that productivity here. T-Doc tanking is that true see what what is this dude you got ta be kidding me. This was the strategist from yesterday.

Okay, i kid you not. This is ridiculous, so this is what they're telling you guys. Okay, this is what their bloomberg this is. This is disgusting.

Okay hold on i'm i'm now going this okay, i'm pissed! Look at this! The very first article on bloomberg.com is jpmorgan. Strategist, see surefire sign it's time to buy stocks notice, how they don't tell you which strategist. You know it's not like some dude at jpm, no, no they're implying that jp morgan. The entire bank is saying it's time to buy stocks right, but look at this okay watch this.

What did i start? This live stream off with look look right there in the middle david kelly chief global strategist at jpmorgan, says it's frankly worrying and investors should prepare to switch towards long-duration assets until towards value in growth stocks now, maybe maybe they're suggesting the same, but based on my Readings of these two reports - they're not like this - was just like by the dip on everything, and this is like uh get out of the u.s. You know it's like it seems like two very, very, very different uh and no mention there about whatever it's it's. You know it's it's the media narrative it's. This is what they tell you in the back end.

This is what they tell you in the front end. I don't get it it. Just it seems discongruent it's. How can on how can on bloomberg? In the back end, you say this, but on the front end you put that on the front page, i don't know, i don't know i i i don't.

I i'm becoming too jaded, i'm sorry. I apologize. I'm gon na take a sip of cold coffee. Now, ah, all right david kelly is a bear, says someone.

Oh, let's get him. Let's get an interview, uh interviewing, i really i would love to get kathy uh in for an interview. I don't think she she ever will uh, even though i've been one of her biggest fans uh for a very very long time. I did post the video this weekend.

I think, on sunday that was not very nice uh, but i've been i've been a very big fan of kathy for a very long time and and i've i've agreed with her, and i still do with her long-term belief in deflation in the long term.