But the idea of rate cuts? Yeah. So um, we on the committee have a have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly, but it'll take some time. and in that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate. and to cut rates and we won't cut rates.

Uh, for some reason, you needed to, uh, email me. email me at Uh Kevin Meet Kevin.com especially if you're looking for one of those sexy bundle coupons. Oh man, what the heck is going on? This is absolutely insane. Job growth is six percent annualized.

The bond market says the vet is going to cut rates in September with 75 certainty Jerome Powell says no way. We have no plans of cutting Pepe coin is up 155. You know how many needle Nerf guns I could have bought for that? That's up 35 x in two weeks. That means if I put 10 grand into Pepe coin, it would have become 350 000.

All while yesterday, we're back to a 2008 financial Panic as Pac West was supposed to be collapsing and becoming the fifth banking collapse this year with Western Alliance right behind it being the sixth banking collapse this year. But we're already in a banking crisis that on a nominal dollar value is already larger than the 2008 financial crisis by asset volume. which is crazy And yet what happens today? Everything's fine. No, we're sash in oil's on four percent stock market up a bunch to pack West up 50 at one point, up 90 short sellers are getting crushed I mean it's literally so wonky out there right now.

You have America like yo get your cash out of the banks at the same exact time as America's like yo invest in Bank stocks, squeeze the short sellers and me. On top of that, people are now circulating videos of nightclubs and Cave they have a Ukraine full of parties at the same time as Russian contractors are threatening to give up because they're out of bullets. All of this is leading to some crazy Euphoria After yesterday's Madness Tesla's up over four percent today, two stocks that I bet on for earnings and we did Deep dive Fundamental analysis on in our course member live streams are crushing it today. open door.

At the time of this recording up 29 bill.com stock up over 20. At the time of this recording both plays I sent out alerts to on course members and with my backed up fundamental analysis on before earnings projecting these beats. Congrats to those of you who played it and killed it. Which reminds me we are raising prices on those programs tonight because we have a huge pre-sale going on for the How to Make More Money and Get Sh9t done faster featuring artificial intelligence which uh, that segment goes live at June 1st but you could lock in your price now and get lifetime access.

But with all that said, this is wild. I Mean think about this for a moment because it seems like there's something going on that hasn't been explained yet. And it's potentially explained by the fact that maybe there are two different types of economic cycles and expansions. Let's talk about those two different cycles and expansions and try to understand those also quickly, because I Forgot to mention it.

Remember, if you join these programs, you get a price match guarantee. So that means if in the future, while the price should be going up if it was ever lower, you get a price match guarantee. So in other words, you lock in the best price possible by joining today. Check that out! Okay, so let's understand these: Cycles There are two different Cycles when it comes to an economic expansion.

Number one, there's an income driven cycle and number two, there is a debt driven cycle and a lot of folks today say, oh well, with all this inflation, I ain't got no income and everybody's debts going up, that might be what the sentiment is. It's kind of like Elizabeth Warren Telling you it's greedy price gouging that's leading to 40 price increases. But look at the effect of price gouging for example, and the data depending on who you want to read and what you want to look at, but at least 40 percent of the increase in prices attributed to price gouging. yet.

Then when a leftist magazine like The Economist actually investigates the claim, they're like, yeah, maybe to some extent, but we have a hard time seeing anything close to 40 in this explanation, Because again, it's nice and invigorating to make bold claims like that. but it's often detached from reality. So what is the reality? Well, let's look at a particular chart that shows us some reality. This is a chart called Real Personal Income.

Now, it's important to understand that this chart means it's already been adjusted for inflation. And if you look at this chart, you could see that real incomes are actually in aggregate across the board, up four percent above 2019.. that means incomes are up four percent above inflation going back to 2019. And now, if you factor in the big spikes that we had in 2022 and 2021, it actually means the average incomes are likely a lot higher than more than four percent up since 2019.

That's because of all the excess savings that we got do in the pandemic. Consider this an individual before the pandemic who had on average five thousand dollars in their bank account now has thirteen thousand dollars in their bank account. And while those numbers were actually declining in 2022, as of Q1, banks are telling us those numbers are going up again. Which means the personal savings rate is actually Rising.

Again, very interesting. So incomes are higher, savings rates are going up Savings In other words, excess savings and actual savings are up, while at the same time, debt is actually potentially down. Now, how is that possible? Well, I'll explain it in a moment, but think about this for a moment. All of this matters because 70 of our economy about 72 percent is made up by what consumers do with their money.

So seventy percent, seventy two percent of our GDP is made up by consumption. Well, if on average, 70 percent of people in America live paycheck to paycheck. That means half of our economy is driven by paycheck to paycheck individuals. Which that doesn't make you a bad person.

It's just a financial reality. But it means that if we have a pie of spending and all of a sudden, that pie grew. Yeah, we might be spending more money on groceries and electricity and gasoline, but we're also spending more money on everything else. So we have more money despite all this crazy inflation, which is pretty remarkable.

And so now that makes us Wonder Wait a minute. Is this driven by debt? How is this potentially the same as just 2008 all over again where we had a big debt cycle, right? We're going to analyze that. but I Want to catch you up I Want to catch you up and signpost you So if you stop paying attention for a moment, let me wake you up and get you right back in. Okay, so let's catch up with what we've understood so far: yo people got more money today and they're technically inflation-adjusted making more money than they did before the pandemic.

That means there's a chance this is an income driven expansion. but what has happened with debt? How can we say that this is not also a debt driven expansion? Because that's bad. hint, hint, spoiler alert. Interest rates being high is bad for the debt-driven recession.

Not so bad for an income driven cycle Or potentially recession. Whatever this is we're in. So let's talk about the debt cycle first. I Have a quick suggestion for you: Remember that in the next decade, the people who take your jobs when you go apply for a job, or if you get laid off, the people who take your potential work and your potential livelihood away from you are not going to be robots.

They are going to be other people mastering artificial intelligence programs to help them become more productive. And so I am creating and promising an evolving course on how to make more money using Ai and become as productive as possible. That's really important because it means we're going to continue to evolve the course as new content comes out and you can lock in the best pricing now to make sure that you're making a one-time investment here into yourself that should continue to provide you dividends in the long term. So again, check that out linked down below.

Now let's talk about the debt driven cycle. This is a big deal. This idea that we could have a debt driven cycle like Ray Dalio talks about. So let's Analyze This.

So if we have a debt driven cycle, then we should see similarities and charts to what we saw in 2006 and 2007.. Well, you actually saw in 2006 and 2007 though, was real income actually stalled out and then you fell into recession whereas right now real incomes are actually rising. And even though they took a little bit of a breather after the crazy printing that we did of Covid, we're on Trend equals up as opposed to Trend equals flat or falling like in 2006 and seven. So that means the income driven expansion is still to some extent Happening Here.

On top of that, interest rates may actually have less of an effect on people today thanks to the differences in home mortgages. Consider that back in 2006, and seven most people who financed a home did so with an adjustable rate mortgage, whereas over 90 percent of people with Home Loans today have a fixed rate 30 or 15 year loan. Which means they're not subject to these interest rates. Rising Usually in a debt driven cycle, you get crushed, and then you have to sell your house because payments went up you can't afford them anymore.

Then you lose your job. Then you start the Domino more housing inventory prices fall, more people having to sell at lower values, more people lose their jobs, and you have a disaster today. People seem widely insulated. In fact, if you look at used cars, even.

yeah, used car prices have gotten expenses. but they're expensive. but they're down eight months in a row. They're down three percent in April alone.

And sure, credit cards are normally more expensive, but for those who are paying credit cards, the difference between 20 and 25 percent isn't that big of a deal. The people really getting hit by higher credit rates or interest rates are truckers, contractors, manufacturers Distributors and people with big lines of credit that they need to make payroll. See here. Most people, though, are not business owners like those.

I Just described most people, probably listening to this video or enjoying the income driven cycle that we've experienced. But again, people might say but Kevin Household debt is up, though, isn't it? Well, let's make a relative comparison to 2006 and 2007. look at household debt to GDP. It's at a consistent level with the decade before the pandemic, and it's well down from 2006, the debt-driven cycle of 2006..

So in other words, yes, the dangerous words quote this time is different now. Yeah, those are the four most dangerous words in investing. I Know. and if I don't clarify that I'm going to hear it all the time.

But there are legitimate differences here Now to some extent, that's scary because we don't know what's going to happen. but I'll break down exactly what you need to pay attention to to know what's going to happen. We'll talk about that towards the end of the video. But what about defaults? Well, defaults in this non-debt driven cycle are half of what they were in 2006 and a third of what they were in 2008 at the peak of the crisis.

What about debt payments as a percentage of personal income? So in other words, if you have personal disposable income, so let's say you have a hundred bucks left after your paycheck on. Friday How much of that goes to debt? Well, we're at about 40 the levels that we saw in 2007.. So in other words, you have Way more money. Okay, simple: English Yeah, maybe debt is up in some level nominal levels, but in comes up and you're paying way less on your debt than you were back in 2006 and seven when incomes were flattening out real incomes.

So this economy is one that keeps surprising to the upside strictly because of how strong income is. The income driven economy is real. Look at the jobs data. In the 10 years before Covid, job growth averaged 108 000 jobs per month.

During Covid, we averaged negative 11 000 jobs per month. Now we're at 371 000 jobs per month on average. In fact, we're still well above the pre-covered trend with today's Jobs report. So where is the recession? Well, some say it happened last Q1 and Q2 See, Look, that's also when real incomes fell and that's when personal savings were going down.

Now they're going up again Now Other people say don't worry, the higher for longer interest rates will make it just a matter of time before the real recession comes and we're all gonna get screwed. And you want gold and cash? maybe? So what do we do? And where do we stand now? Well, where we stand is in a world of uncertainty. Nobody knows what the hell is going to happen. I Don't know.

Just because I've got a dark green suit and a blue tie doesn't make me a fortune teller. It just means my guess is as good as yours. But there is something we could pay attention to, right? Yes, there are. And here are some actionable advice for you first: I Highly encourage you pay attention to companies that are seeing their earnings potentially be artificially boosted thanks to year-over-year price increases.

so be careful in my opinion. And I'm not certain of this yet, but I'm looking at this hard. Are companies like Royal Caribbean Ulta and Chipotle or Nestle doing really well because in year over year comparisons pricing is up, but a lot of that pricing was taken in q1 and Q2 of 2022 which means soon we're going to roll off, potentially have flat pricing and if then volume growth is going on. These companies could end up doing a CVS CVS is down over 30 percent in just the last three to six months now.

Part of that could be because less people are getting covered boosters, or it's because the growth they had was artificially propped up by the inflation we saw in 2021 into early 2022.. So that pricing we don't have the luxury of taking anymore today because pricing gains are fading even. Nestle who bragged about raising prices nine percent in Q1 talks about soon. When we roll over the year-over-year numbers, we're going to be at flat pricing.

So then they're going to have flat pricing and negative volume growth. If their volume growth stays that the trend where it is now, that's going to be terrible for those consumer staple stocks or consumer discretionary stocks that solely rely on pricing nominal pricing going up at the sacrifice of volume. In my opinion, what you'd rather have and what would be more of a long-term tell of pricing power would be a Innovation and investments into artificial intelligence. But also you want to look at companies that are growing volumes like crazy.

Look at a company like Tesla or end face growing volumes like wild. You want volume growth Nvidia AMD with their partnership with Microsoft. These are companies that, in my opinion, you're going to win strongly massively over the next 10 years now. Yes, I Do understand that wage gains came in at an annualized growth rate at six percent this morning.

that is twice the Federal Reserve's wage Target of three percent growth. Yes, three percent growth, not two percent. The FED targets three percent wage growth to get to two percent inflation. Now that's not great, but it's only one month of data, so we don't yet have a trend of a de-anchoring of wages.

However, if people are going back to spending on retail travel and services, this could be a red flag that our next inflation reports are going to come in a little dirty. Those are actually the critical inflection points. see. While Jerome Powell tells us no cuts are being talked about, the Bond Market assumes with a 75 certainty we're going to cut rates in September It's because the Bond market thinks a recession is really going to take hold in Q3 Q4 which it may the biggest tell of the direction of our economy, though will be the next CPI reports which the next one comes out in five days on May 10th and then the next one thereafter comes out on June 13th.

the day before the next Fed meeting. And those reports. you're going to want to pay specific attention to core inflation X Housing Services Now that's a mouthful, but let me give it to you in: English Things like travel, airfare, hotels maybe not hotels because that's part of housing by some accounts, but car rentals CPAs accountants, lawyers, haircuts, services, and so on. That's where you do not want to see more than 0.1 to 0.2 percent month over month growth.

If we continue to explode over there, it's going to be problematic now. Of course, companies even like Chipotle or Starbucks do indicate that. Yeah, look, we're still seeing wage growth, but it's nowhere near what it used to be. In other words, the availability of Labor is way higher than it used to be.

Well, that's great. If it starts tightening up again, it's a problem. and then we really get higher. for longer, we go into recession.

but right now we are insulated the New York Times and I Know half of you hate the New York Times. but the New York Times with a Fed writer. She's pretty good. The FED writer at the New York Times.

She did a fantastic piece and she pointed out exactly what I pointed out. Two days ago, she made an entire New York Times piece about how wait a second. Jerome Powell's right. We're in an environment now where Jolt's job openings are declining, but unemployment.

The unemployment rate is also declining. those never historically have declined before. This is unprecedented and it actually increases the chances of a so-called soft Landing. But in the meantime, we have to be careful that we don't fall victim to investing in companies that have what I call faux pricing power.

Nobody wants a faux PP Nobody wants fake PP We want real pricing Power. Real pricing comes from volume growth and Innovation over the next decade not temporary price increases at the sacrifice of volume like you're seeing some of the food companies do. or the Staples do. That's why I'm bearish Staples and some of the consumer discretionaries.

So what do you do now? Well, in the short term, you could YOLO into PP or pack West But once volumes fade over there trading volumes expect those to plummet as well. So be careful. especially once they hit Peak Euphoria and Peak virality. And then they plummet.

They're going to plummet. They always do. That is any kind of momentum as soon as the momentum goes away. The valuations plot.

It's the way it works. But let's put it this way: after I took my net profits on a trade on Bill earnings and Open Door earnings that I did with course members did have net profits. I've been getting a ton of comments and messages of people making money on these trades, which is absolutely fantastic and I made money too. But my belief is that over the next 10 years I want to take 99 of my portfolio and make long bets on the companies that are going to win I Don't actually believe that's going to be Google Now A lot of people get mad at me.

A lot of people love Google It's a staple in many people's portfolio, especially S P 500 buyers. So I'm offending a lot of people I Personally have friends who work at Google but I'm very concerned because Google in a a leaked document just out indicated they really have no proprietary Edge on artificial intelligence. Now we don't know the authenticity of that leaked report, but it makes sense Google by saying closed Source is probably going to lose to all of the open Source AI data that we have and the plugins of either Chat GPT or Bing and beyond that, anybody who's mastering productivity with AI I think is going to win in the long term again. That's why I have a course to get you started on all of this because there's so much confusing information out there on.

like okay I downloaded 50 different plugins. Now how do I make more money? No, no, no wrong way to think about it. I'll set it all straight I will help you be a more productive person in your life every single day. One-time investment.

It's worth it. Lifetime access and price guaranteed. but I am concerned about Google I Am also a very much believer of the Nike Swoosh Recovery people. People make fun of the Nike Swoosh So far it's been correct and I think it's going to be a volatile Nike Swoosh but I think over the next 10 years we will look back and go.

Damn wish I invested earlier in the swoosh. That's my take. so stay tuned. Buckle up! I am more optimistic than I'm bearish, but I'm also cautiously optimistic.

so be careful with margin. Consider some of the things I said about which companies to invest in. Obviously, this is non-personalized financial advice, even though I am a licensed financial advisor I don't know your situation I manage an ETF I sell courses on building your wealth and using artificial intelligence to help you make more money as well as learning everything that I know about business whether it comes from Real Estate or stocks or fundamental analysis or accounting, you name it. If you want to get a head start, check out those programs linked down below.

Thanks so much and we'll see in the next one. Goodbye.