The white house is warning that a russian attack on ukraine could begin any day. The build-up of forces is really quite significant and we begin with breaking news on the last ditch efforts to avoid a russian invasion of ukraine that u.s officials say could begin at any time tonight in a massive show of force not seen since the cold war. 30. 000, russian troops now stationed in belarus for joint military exercises stoking fears of an invasion of neighboring ukraine.

So is this thing for real putin actually invading ukraine? Is this actually happening, or is this some sort of an elaborate bluff and if so, what it means for the stock market, because there's a lot of implications we got to cover in this video, but mainly i just want to ask that you, don't click, nothing! Don't smash nothing and don't buy nothing, and let this russian dude in attraction explain to you what the hell is going on between russia and ukraine and we're starting right now. Heavy artillery, including two battalions of s 400 surface-to-air missile systems and 12 fighter jets brought in for the drills which russia is calling allied resolve, but the us and nato warning these drills could all be a thinly veiled diversion and an excuse to move troops closer to Keith ukraine's capital, which sits less than 90 miles from the belarus border. I was born in russia. I understand their culture, i speak their language.

I think i have a better understanding than most westerners about what's going on in russia and what's the origins of this conflict, which i think makes me more qualified to make a prediction about the future. Even though predicting the future is kind of a stupid game, and you know what happens when you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes, so i'm just gon na say it out here. Predicting this outcome is pretty much impossible. Nobody knows what's going to happen, only one guy knows it.

His name is vladimir pluto he's the only one that can actually tell you what's happening here. I can only speculate and guess, based on my understanding of whatever is going on in russia right now, which i think is better than most mainstream. Media fears remain high, that a russian invasion of ukraine is imminent. Setting off a wider dispute between moscow and the west, including potentially over gas, a russian spokesman said monday that the country would not cut off its supplies to europe, but moscow's leverage in energy politics is hard to ignore.

Those guys seem to get a lot of things right, but also quite a lot of things wrong, including some so-called experts that have really gone off the deep end here and i'll explain a second. Why? So, when you look at, why is this happening? There's a lot of different reasons, and people in the west seem to understand that putin is a reasonable guy, he's a logical guy and he operates based on you know: fundamentals of efficiency. Obviously, he's done a lot of bad stuff and he's not a nice guy, and i think we can all agree that he's a pretty vicious dude. However, the one thing that the west actually understands about putin and he's logical - i mean he's not looking out to destroy everything with him he's trying to get something here.

So what is he trying to get you sure? What he's trying to get is something completely different than what you guys think, because what he's trying to get isn't gas prices? It isn't his own approval ratings, of course, getting higher guest prices because of distension is nice, it's nice to have for him getting the country mobilized around him as they go to war is nice to have for him, but none of this none of these two reasons Which is something you hear mainstream media into. Yes, is why this is happening, and it has nothing to do with the solution as well and i'll explain in a second. Why, right now, 55 of german gas imports come from russia. That's a higher dependence than across the eu, where the average is 40 of imports from russia.

So, as far as gas prices being up, i mean he has better easier, more efficient ways to keep the prices up. He needs regional attention to keep the prices up and he's been doing this for 20 years. He's kind of become the expert at keeping the you know the tensions up, but not war, so he can keep the grass prices up. I mean that's not something new.

He can literally write the whole playbook on this now. The second thing that people talk about is his approval ratings in russia and they're, not as high as they used to be, and he needs more war. And it's a very western way of looking at things, because you have to understand that even though it doesn't seem like it, putin is a is a monarchy. He's a king he's a dictator whatever you want to call him, so he's not going anywhere.

Of course, he would be happy to have higher approval ratings, but it's not like he's critically concerned about this to the point: where he's you know scared he's not i mean he holds everything. He holds the media, the newspapers, the broadcast, the production lines. Energy, i mean he controls the entire. He holds everybody by the nut sack nobody can move on him or against him ever he's 70 years old, and as long as he wants to be in power, which i believe until the rest of his natural life, he ain't going nowhere, regardless of whatever approval ratings.

They have over there in russia, i mean he doesn't care. Not really. I mean it's nice if they go up, but you know it is what it is. It's not a huge deal for him.

It's definitely not ukraine. He has better ways of mobilizing public opinion if he needed some in fact, he's gotten quite good at that as well. He does not need to threaten a ukrainian invasion. You know for that purpose, so why is he doing this? If i just debunked two of the main theories, you hear mainstream media, why the hell is this? Going on the former u.s ambassador to russia, says vladimir putin believes it's his sacred destiny to right the wrongs of the end of the cold war.

So the origins of this i actually start way way into the past. You have to understand that putin is 70 years old, which means is a product of the ussr. In fact he was a kgb guy. He grew up in that environment of the ussr.

Is a you know, global force to be reckoned with and he went through this whole collapse of the ussr. I am ceasing my activities in the post of president of the ussr. The tri-color banner of the russian republic now flies over the kremlin and from the white house president bush salutes the man who presided over the end of the soviet union, everything he saw and believed in that was powerful and strong collapsed right in front of his eyes. In 1989 poof gone, of course he adjusted.

However, what happened is that in 1989 um, basically, when russia fell apart, the west made a promise to russia, which is basically hey, even though you guys now have no clout and you're shambles and you're in deep doo-doo. We're not gon na put nato on your borders. Don't worry about it! We're not gon na! Kick you when you're down. This was how europe was aligned at the peak of the cold war, split between willing nato allies and blue to the west and in red countries.

That the soviet union used brutal force to keep in line with them, but when the soviet union fell, these eastern european countries now free aligned with the us and nato russia's sphere of influence and its geographic buffer against nato, now shrunk considerably. Five, nato countries even border russia and many now host u.s military bases and ukraine. It sits here almost alone between russia and the west. For years, vladimir putin has complained.

The u.s and west have lied to russia and have forced him to take action. You promised us in the 1990s that nato would not move an inch to the east. He said just weeks ago, you cheated us shamelessly, there's a really great lecture by posner i mean if you're from russia, you know who posner is vladimir posner. He made a really interesting lecture.

We explained some of these things and i highly suggest you watch it and the attitude towards russia was pretty much you're, no longer a superpower, you are a second-rate country, just just keep quiet, please. This became evident and would be evident to you if you follow the policy of the united states. Now, let's begin with going back to gorbachev and his meetings when he was asked by several people, all of them quite important to allow germany to reunite and take down the berlin wall and he was told by james baker. And now this is not many people.

I mean when i would say this: many people say it's not true. It's not true. He was told by james baker. If this happens, nato will not move one inch eastward well, not long ago.

On december 12th 2017, the national defense archives of george washington, university, declassified, the minutes of the baker, gorbachev discussion and it's there. So in this lecture he actually explains how that promise that was given and was, you know, subsequently broken in 1997. Basically, the west came and said: hey we're putting nato all over your. You know backyard.

Why? Because we can, and you can't do jack about it. You know deal with it. They basically spat and put in face. They humiliated, they insulted him and in 1997 he couldn't do jack.

Russia was still in shambles. It was going through an economic crisis, the military was, they basically saw him as an irrelevant pawn and they just kicked him and he took it. He had no choice, but ever since 1997 that insult that feeling of worthlessness stuck with him now he's a very efficient guy and he likes to do things that benefit. You know his own means and goals.

However, i truly believe he never forgot the insult of 1997 and, of course they carried on later, they did it again and again they added more countries from the old soviet alliance to nato and they kept on going on and on now now, at his stage in His career, you have to understand, he's 70 years old 70. he's an old guy, even though he looks in shape. You know the famous picture with him on the horse. Shirtless i mean the dude is in shape, i mean for a seven year old.

He looks good, but i mean he's 70., so he's literally like the tom brady of russian politics. He has nothing left to achieve. Not women, not money, not respect. I truly believe he might be the richest guy in the world unofficially, but you know who knows at least, i would just say, he's in the top 10 richest people in the world for sure, even though, like officially, he owns a ducha in the ladder and, like 20.

000. In cash i mean so he has all the money in the world all the women. If he wants it all the respect, the clout i mean, what else can he achieve? I truly believe that now, at his stage he's more concerned by his own legacy, where he stands as far as the russian leaders of the past and what his legacy will be. He knows.

He's 70 he's bored we're pretty much going to office every single day, renting a country he's done that for a long long time. There's nothing left for him to achieve so he's bored and he's looking for a way to stamp himself into the pages of russian history, and he knows he can only get it done by one of two things he can either do it by creating some sort of A hybrid ussr 2.0, whatever the hell that means, or he can actually do something else, which is rollback, nato all the way to like pre-1997 or even you know, maybe even to pre 1989. Who knows at this point. Nobody really knows exactly what he wants, but basically those are the two things you can achieve and go down in history like at least in russian history as a guy who did the impossible.

Now. Let me just explain to you that if he's going, for you know some sort of a re-incarnation of ussr 2.0 uh, you can get it to happen without a lot of these former soviet union countries. I don't want to name any, but i mean you can do it without a lot of them. The one country you cannot do this project without is ukraine.

Ukraine is integral for this plan. This plan cannot happen without ukraine being a part of this new whatever. Now it does not have to be official, it doesn't have to have a russian flag, but if you can control ukraine to the point where it's kind of you know an annexed country of the year, i was about to say the ussr of russia. Then that's pretty much the goal he's looking for he doesn't need actually to invade and take over officially ukraine, but he needs to control it for this project to actually make sense now.

The second option here is basically rollback nato to 1997 or pre-1997 or pre 1989, and basically that means kicking out some of these people they let in like hungary, i think poland, czech republic, there's a lot of members that you know he doesn't want there. He likes to have influence over these countries and, if they're not part of nato, he can actually, you know do that, and obviously that doesn't mean that they actually have to officially kick out poland or hungary or the czech republic out of nato. But it kind of means that they become insignificant members or whatever. I think that's what he wants thing is and what he wants isn't money, it's those two things either or, and the problem is that the us can't give him none.

In fact, they can't even promise to him not to let ukraine into nato, even though ukraine isn't even a candidate to join nato and not going to be anytime soon. But if they make to him. This promise they're literally taking ukraine and shoving it away from themselves into his loving arms, which is exactly what he wants. That commitment is going to basically turn ukraine into a you know: a kind of forceful ally of of russia.

They won't have a choice but to go to russia for protection and whatever. So that's exactly what he wants. He wants ukraine to be under his thumb and if he gets a commitment, they're not going to be part of you know nato. Then he gets that.

Now. Here's the thing he doesn't need to conquer ukraine. For this, you just need neutrality if they say that ukraine is now neutral and not under nato, or at least not even planned as then. It means ukraine is floating in space looking for a home and i'm sure he can spare them a room now.

Here's the thing here i do want to talk about. What's the next steps here, so wouldn't that make more sense for russia and the west to work out a deal here right? Obviously, nobody wants an invasion. Ukraine does not want the invasion. Putin does not want to actually invade the people of russia.

Have no interest in this war, they like ukrainians, they feel like they're part of their people. Just to let you know, there's no animosity between ukrainians and russians. I mean they feel like they're the same people. Europe obviously doesn't want that as well, because the gas prices will go up, the gas supply will be problematic.

The us doesn't want that another problematic geopolitical crisis under biden. He already had a few. So with that being said, with everybody needing a deal here, how come it's so hard to get well, first of all, both parties, don't trust each other, and i think the us is afraid that putin is going to blackmail them again if they give something to him Right now - and i think putin is afraid that he's not going to get the cloud he thinks he deserves, and he wants to be a part of the team that makes the decisions he's just asking for a commitment that they won't let ukraine in nato and not To put troops on the ground near russia, it's a lot to ask, but all i'm saying it's just a commitment. I mean we've been known to see commitments actually broken in the past.

He doesn't need money, he doesn't need anything material. He can't be bought with classical stuff, however, unfortunately, for for the us um, they have no leverage over russia. Despite the rhetoric - and you heard biden talk about it, he has no actual. You know leverage over russia, russia has spent.

You know a lot of time, money and resources into becoming sanction. Proof, they've learned their lesson. It's a very self-sufficient economy that really can't be with it's, not the best economy in the world, but like an old russian refrigerator, it's going to work for 30 years. It's going to be noisy, smelly and probably ugly, but it's going to keep on going it's exactly the russian economy.

It can't be sanctioned. It's just the way it's built, it's too simple to with now, besides the point that he has a lot of money, a lot of reserves. Gas prices are being up energy prices up as down the money, strong economy, pretty much at this point. You know sanction proof and the eu cannot afford any with the gas in the winter, because we don't want anybody freezing over there.

At this point, it's a real danger. So what's the leverage here, almost none, but i'm just going to put it here in parentheses. However, there is pressure on putin not to do this, it's just not coming from the us because they don't have any first of all. Why is he pressured not to go to war here? Well, first, i mean if he conquers ukraine, which i believe he will if he goes to war.

I don't think it's going to be a complete. You know, walk over like people think it is he's not going to sweep them in four games. It's going to be a bloody affair and, unfortunately, that's something that you can't run away from. It's going to be a war and even though he doesn't care about casualties or bad pr in russia, he does care about a few other things.

So if he conquers ukraine, first of all, it means he has to feed. Now all these people he just conquered. It's not gon na, be easy. Ukraine is a big ass place and it's not easy to feed he's gon na have to keep the lights on you're.

Gon na have to invest in their infrastructure, basically government roads, education, health care, it's a lot of money, a lot of headaches he doesn't need and how about the guerrilla warfare is going to start after he conquers ukraine. I mean - i don't know if you know any ukrainians, but they're pretty tough. I guarantee you if he conquers ukraine there's going to be a whole guerrilla movement against him for decades. Yeah! No support in russia for this.

Nobody in russia wants this trust me. No russian. Once put in to invade ukraine, they like these guys, they feel like this. It's like the us invading canada, but mostly and here's where it gets interesting, because i think money eventually does stuck here mostly if he does that the eu will be forced to find a solution for an alternative gas supplier.

That is not russia right now they pretty much like, like 40 of the gas, is coming from russia. It's almost like exclusive. If he does that, the eu will have to basically get off their ass, not be lazy and find other alternative suppliers to get cash from diversify their gas purchases, which is something they don't have right now. So if he does that, he basically shoots himself in the leg, because they'll figure out another way to get gas, because now they understand that this thing is in danger.

So how did this thing end? Nobody really knows outside of putin. I think that if they can work out a deal that can't be packaged enough nicely for putin to accept it internally, it's a big win for the russian project. Whatever it is, he'll climb off the street quite fast, he needs probably some sort of a firm commitment, but not written one, that ukraine is not going to be nato for another 15 years and no u.s troops or nato troops at certain places around his borders. Some stuff that they can actually package in russia and sell it as a huge win and then i think he will actually back off, but i think once he gets a commitment from them it actually, you know heals the wounds of 1997.

he's now, a part of The team, his opinion matters and they gave him something. I don't think that none of us knows exactly how this thing plays out, but there's one thing: i can guarantee you. If a war actually breaks out, i mean the stock market is going to suffer from this. However, however, a long term as far as a six-month period a one-year period, this whole thing is irrelevant.

The stock market is going to do what it's going to do in the next year, two three years, regardless of a couple of months of maybe volatility, and you know whatever is going to happen in ukraine. So if you have long-term investments in the stock market, this conflict as interesting as it is, doesn't impact you if you're day trader or swing creator. Yeah, that's gon na be volatile as hell huh. Let's see what happens, let me know below if this kind of video is to your liking.

I don't know i've never done the video that long in that deep into geopolitical issues like that. Let me know below if this is horrible or interesting, so i can make more of these for those of you who, like it, and especially for those of you who don't like it.