Well, it actually happened. Elon musk has pulled off what many thought would be impossible, he reached a deal to acquire twitter and it cost him a cool 44 billion dollars. I was just a little short in my bid, i think lindsay rent me a few dollars, but we were a little short on it. Like five bucks, you know all right we're here, to break it all down and to talk about what and how that all transpired is youtube.

Sensation meet kevin kevin, it's great to have you back on the show on this big day um. You know. Last time you were here, you suggested that twitter should counter offer. It looks as though they kind of realize hey.

This is a pretty good offer. 54 bucks and 20 cents a share. So what do you think made them take the deal, and why do you think that they reversed course, and at least according to conventional wisdom, yeah? Absolutely. Thank you so much for having me again as well.

Look: here's the thing when you're negotiating and you're backed into a corner. The first thing you do is look for other opportunities, but if there are no other opportunities you go with what you've got, because if they didn't go for elon's offer, they would have been exposed to massive shareholder lawsuits. Here's why elon is paying 75.2 times 2022 earnings for twitter. That's substantial because if you compare that to netflix google, facebook or many other companies that have a similar growth trajectory of around 15 to 20, we're only paying 20 times earnings for those companies in the stock market right now that means elon's, potentially paying as much as 3X for this company he's giving them a great deal, and it was very smart of them to take it and it's a win for free speech.

Okay, so the company is going to continue to be publicly traded until the deal is final, which actually might even be today or tomorrow. What does this mean for shareholders? Should people be buying twitter right now, so that deal is final or should they be divesting? What's the advice? Yeah, that's a great question! So here's the thing, the buyout price would be a 54-20, but there are risks you could have the ftc. You could have the sec, you could have the biden administration. A lot of things could step in here and really mess things up for twitter.

The stock right now is trading for about a four percent discount. That means, if you invest, the deal goes through. Maybe your upside is four percent, but if the deal fails, your downside could be fifty percent. For me, it's not worth it if the company's going public or if it's going private, it's it's not something i would touch.

If i had shares, i would sell them. Somebody did donate one share to me, so i do hold just one share: hey kevin, so you said it's a good deal for twitter and i agree with you totally like it's well, above all of the smart things that you said. Was it a good deal for elon musk, because right now, you're seeing a lot of folks say, particularly on the left that they're going to leave? So did he make a good deal, but he did something phenomenal for society. He is a fighting force for free speech and bringing us an open source source algorithm.

That means people can see the code and see what the software is doing. It's really uh, potentially a way of showing the world how ai can actually work and, if you think about it, it's actually kind of a sneaky benefit for tesla, because if people see how great the algorithm will work in the future under elon at twitter, it's going To move the market cap of a company like tesla and given that tesla is worth over 25 times what twitter is worth that elon's gon na make more than his money back. He definitely overpaid for this company, but i think, with his changes, he'll also make money on twitter, okay. This was such a controversial move like sean mentioned because of free speech.

So how does this disrupt the market for places? Other platforms like true social or something like that yeah truth, social had some problems today. So truth, social was down about 12 and a half percent after the deal was announced, and this also came at about the same time that we heard that trump had only been on the platform once in the last two months, not really good uh. Really, i think, there's a lot of hope that maybe trump will just come back to sort of elon's twitter which right now it seems like might not happen. Hopefully it does, but we just want folks ultimately to feel like they.

They don't have to self-censor themselves or be fearful of getting banned. I think that's what everybody really wants: uh internationally for uh for uh prevention of censorship, and that's really what elon's doing here, because that's a big thing is a lot of folks complain that they're worried about even saying what their opinion is, because they're worried they'll just Get banned and i can imagine that under an elon musk run twitter folks won't have that fear anymore, and it is a win for democracy. Unlike what elizabeth warren and folks on the left say, which is ridiculous. Elizabeth warren just tweeted that this is dangerous for democracy.

I'll tell you what's dangerous: it's the ceo of twitter, getting 42 million dollars if he gets fired by elon. Musk, that's broken! So you suck at your job and you get 42 million as a payday. If you're fired, that's dangerous, that no i'll i'll take 42 million dollars, get fired, um, hey real, quick before we go, it is okay as quick as possible on earnings come out for twitter on thursday, real quick. How does that change anything? I don't think this really affects earnings.

I think people are going to look right through earnings. Again. You've got a four percent upside right now, 50 downside. If the deal doesn't go through, it doesn't make sense for the stock to really run past 54 20, because that's what you're gon na get paid uh.

If the deal does go through right, so you're upside super limited, downside's, huge, fantastic as always kevin. You bring common sense to very complicated things. Thank you, as always. Thank you for having me.

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