Hey everyone we kevin here. I've got a full report here on what elon musk just said. At the all-in podcast, we had about 90 minutes hearing from elon musk, so i'm going to go through everything we're going to start with twitter. Then we're going to talk about the recession, we're going to talk a little bit about tesla, not all necessarily in this order.

We'll also talk about potentially just creating uh a replacement platform for twitter. So we'll talk about that uh. Some of these things might be a little bit out of order, but we're going to go in the way that elon musk spoke. So it's going to be in elon order all right here.

We go right after, of course, remember that code linked down below does expire tonight, largest price increase ever check that out, we've also got coaching calls on sale and yeah. You know some people are like. Oh, you know, stock market's red kevin's kevin's got more products. Well, it's actually what i say: remember i'm a person who likes to do what i say uh and so when i tell you, i'm gon na do something i do it uh.

What i do is not necessarily a recommendation for other people, but i do recommend that when the market is falling, you should work harder, so you can buy more all right, let's get into it so number one twitter, uh, elon musk, starts off by talking about how Right now he's debating the number of bots that twitter has. He says currently there's just no way to know the number of bots, it's unknowable to the human soul, that you need some like witchcraft or alchemy, alchemy, to basically figure out how many bots there are and then he kind of rhetorically jokes. Have you tried uh, and so he mentions how we could have one person who could authorize a thousand different accounts and so that what we really need on twitter is real people instead of one thousand by one just one to one, because it's not like you're gon Na sell one toaster to a thousand bots you'd, sell it to one person and that one person represents a thousand. That's it's disproportionate, but it's also potentially disproportionate for the uh political implications that all of a sudden.

If politicians, who are leaning a certain way, have tons of bot farms supporting them, you're really squeezing out free speech by flooding it with supportive or anti-speech towards particular politicians, so that you've really got such a massive problem with bots and elon musk suggests. Look it's quite ridiculous, like this is not like splitting the atom we should be able to solve this quite easily. Just like it should be easy for twitter to tell us how many bots there are so elon musk said it quote, seems beyond unreasonable for twitter to claim that any that the number of real humans are at over 95 percent, he says: does anyone actually have that Experience yes, rhetorically and the audience sort of erupted into laughter there. He believes that they're, probably four to five times as many bots as twitter, has actually disclosed in their public filings, and this is kind of suggesting that twitter's revenue could potentially be 20 less valuable.

Therefore, a 20 discount consider this at 54 dollars roughly to make math easy would be somewhere here on the fly at what uh 10 and 40 cents right. So that's that's quite substantial. These are things to to keep in mind when we're considering this so uh, then we've got actually that's. What is that ten percent? That's five dollars and forty cents times: two no that'd be more that'd, be eleven dollars and sixty cents see math on the fly uh.

Anyway. That's a lot right, but twitter's obviously fallen substantially more than that already uh. But that's because of the likelihood of the deal not happening if twitter comes out and says: yeah you're right, we've actually got this many bots, which they won't do. Imagine how many shareholder lawsuits they'd face that basically their revenue has been overestimated by 20.

It'd be ridiculous, but anyway uh, elon, musk sort of and - and i think i might have an answer for this one - i'm not trying to say. I have the answer to everything, but he argues that. Why is it that i have the most liked tweet in the world and it's the tweet that uh has 4.7 million likes and it's the tweet that says next, i'm buying coca-cola to put the cocaine back in elon said. Obviously, the public really wants this, and so we should go back to coca-cola's roots he's obviously joking here, but he says how can a tweet like this represent only two to two and a half percent of the entire user base of twitter, and so this is where Elon musk challenges you know really like it should have a higher like ratio and the folks up on stage from the all-in podcast they're like yeah.

I mean well like. Why is it that you have maybe a billion people who watch youtube videos and the most popular youtube? Videos have tens of billions of views and i actually think there could be a potential reason for that see only about five to ten percent of people who are actually viewers, actually click the like or dislike button on a video but still watch it right. So there's gon na be a difference between like clicking on video and watching it, which you don't really get you kind of get like an impression metric on twitter. It's like well, did somebody really read it or did they were they scrolling they looked away and then they went back to scrolling right.

So it's harder to measure those sorts of impressions and then how many people actually care to press the like button. Maybe it's only one percent of you. Nobody really knows twitter's supposed to know, but apparently they don't, and so all this uncertainty is really pissing, elon musk off he talks about how we should have that open source algorithm and that really he talks about how ultimately he needs the data and the more questions He asks the more concerned he gets. That was a quote from him, the more questions he asks, the more concerned he gets, and then he kind of responds to this idea.

That he's like trying to pull a right wing take over here, because that's how the far left is kind of characterizing this deal and he's like, i might have never repo voted republican in my life like this is not a right-wing takeover, it's more of a what He calls a moderate takeover uh, and so you know this is where he talks about bots influencing public opinions believes that there are problems on both sides: democrat republican right, democratic side, you've got issues with unions, sort of being a monopoly right side, corporations and religion and Uh and then he talks about also like how do we measure ads if ads are impression, based and bots are creating a lot of impressions? How is that fair to companies that are trying to promote their brands? Now i'm a big fan of using different metrics to evaluate how good ads are, those are going to either be actual product conversions or, if you're doing a brand campaign, people usually do sentiment, surveys or recurring customers. Are you losing your recurring customers, or are you getting more recurring customers because of that brand loyalty? Usually you can measure these things quarter to quarter with seasonal adjustments by knowing, when you've started your campaign for a certain advertising effort right. These are ways companies can evaluate. Roi but yeah i get obviously like if twitter's giving you here's, how many people saw your your stuff? Well, maybe there's an impressions mismatch there.

So i get that then elon musk was asked hey how many companies are really in tesla and he's like well, we do a lot in fact uh. You know he says gm and ford. Actually don't do that much big diss to them. He's like they don't do, sales, they don't do service, maybe they make their engines, but they use suppliers for most things.

Then he says we do everything. We do almost everything we do. Sales we do service. We have the largest network of superchargers by far the most uh largest large network of superchargers and the most advanced we make the battery packs the electronics the drive unit we make all of these we make the gpus the pace we need to move is substantially faster Than the pace that existing supply chains can actually move, so that's why we're internalizing so much of this and doing this ourselves.

We make the software we make the software that controls the car, the charging infrastructure, the battery management system, the screens, it's all by tesla's tesla's operating system and, of course, now they're working on the advanced real-world, ai in-house, from scratch, fsd so on and so forth. So he's really making this contrast there and this isn't even to touch on yet the insurance industry, which is very inefficient. Elon says: why is it that you have to pay 30 40 percent of your payment on, let's say a lease for a car for insurance and then not get rewarded for driving better? It says if you're 20 years old you get destroyed for being 20 uh and uh. You know getting insurance just because you're 20.

and statistically uh 20 year olds drive less bad, but if you're a good driver or you're incentivized to drive well because you're watching your safety score and in real time you're getting a lower insurance premium. Well, now not only do we promote safer driving, but we can also give cheaper insurance to the people who are less of a risk. I definitely drive safer with my safety score. I pay a lot of attention to my safety score.

It's 100. uh, but when i get in a car like a rental car - and i don't have a safety score - let's go anyway uh will the twitter deal close well? This is where he, this is the sort of big question here. This is where he says it depends he's waiting for a logical explanation on the spam accounts. He says that twitter is refusing to tell him that they claim it's a complex methodology that can only be understood by few.

It's like the definition of arcane right there. So uh this is where he's asked well, could the deal be done at a lower price and he responds not out of the question now. He doesn't really imply that he's negotiating, but the people asking the question on stage from the allen podcast they imply like. Well, i mean this sounds like it could be a good opportunity for you to negotiate anyway.

Elon makes this analogy goes: look if i'm the buyer of a house which strikes home, obviously, as a real estate broker uh. If i'm the buyer of a house, he says, and i'm told the house is five percent termites, but it's actually 90 termites. Then the house is worth less to me: you're not actually buying a house you're buying a termite. In that example, i thought that was pretty fun anyway uh, you know, then.

We briefly touched on this idea, maybe of creating a new app, maybe one that could handle payments and elon talks about how ridiculous it is that, during the stimulus check time, we're still mailing checks. When paypal's been around for, like 20 years, instant payments, much faster than mailing checks around uh, and so a little bit of this talk about starting over and just making something new, especially with all the attention from engineers. Elon's now attracted how we could recruit the best engineers and elon says: look quote my default. Inclination is to start things from scratch.

Spacex started from scratch, tesla started with essentially from scratch, with like five people and uh and really yeah. There is this potential of just starting from scratch, and so obviously twitter fell, like you know, it went from like negative five percent on the day to like negative eight percent on the day, which was pretty wild anyway. Now i got security looking at me like i'm a freak anyway, so then we've got spacex uh and the goal with spacex is to make life multiplanatory uh planetary, and i thought this was funny. He goes if we find aliens i'll, definitely tell you if we find them right and then he goes.

If we find aliens, spacex would probably get a lot more revenue. This is also kind of funny. Then he talks a little bit about how we can build satellites on the moon or in remote locations or bigger telescopes to kind of see the world a little bit better. Uh chamath asks hey.

Well, is there really enough profit in these or do you need government support and he goes look? What we really need is sure government support would help it's going to be very expensive, but you know what, if we get to world war iii, and then we break the opportunity for us to go multi-planetary, there's this big filter of life and it's being able to Get to another uh world and be able to connect the two and then create a self-sustaining civilization in another area, and so we're not sure we're able to to do that. But that's obviously the goal, especially when we have such a low birth rate that we have right now. Uh, you know he's like you. Kind of joked, like people are worried about having too many babies being bad for the environment, and it's like what no not at all the environment could sustain, maybe twice as many humans as exists.

Now, on top of that, he also argues that hey, you know we're we're in this place, where some people go to him and go like. Oh, i don't want to bring a child into this world and he's like um lady. Have you read history anyway, uh? So then he talks a little bit about california, and this was rough. He says, california has gone from the land of opportunity to the land of taxes over regulation and litigation.

This is not a good situation. He says it took giga taxes 18 months to be built. Three-Fourths uh three to four times the size of the pentagon, and he says in california. If we're trying to build this in california, i'd still be waiting for permits, yeah, which is kind of sad, but also quite true.

It's pretty ridiculous in california, so uh. He says that uh the people have to change to want this, though there has to be an above zero chance that a republican wins, because really what you have right now in california is a one-party state and he kind of alluded to china here he says, even If you held a gun to gavin newsom's head to build a tesla factory, he couldn't do it too many litigators too much regulation, and that's why people are leaving uh. California, then uh. He talks about recessions, not necessarily being a bad thing.

I've actually talked about this. A lot during the pandemic, i talked about how, like you, want to pick companies that are going to get much more efficient from recessions. This is something that i've regularly done now. That doesn't mean i'm perfect, with all my picks, but still up, and so the picks that i like to pick are companies that, when they do lay people off, they use that as an opportunity to keep the best possible talent and see elon talks about this as Well, he says in a boom, everybody gets money like fools, get money, and really, as a result of this, you get a misallocation of capital.

You get people doing things that they don't. They don't really need it for, and so a recession is kind of like an economic enema, which is you know like when you clean out, you know the place where the sun don't shine. Uh, and i mean, if you think about it, you look at carvana. They just laid off 1200 people.

You've got uh robin hood. They just laid off nine percent of their sales force uber's like we're gon na freeze, hiring amazon's like crap, we over hired yeah, because during a boom time, people spend money like crazy and they don't realize that good times do end. This is one of the reasons that, oh you know i was gon na, buy a plane and i'm like well crap, there's a chance. We go into a recession next year and i'm not gon na be caught dead spending money on on an asset.

That's gon na potentially lose half of its value when people start tightening their belts again and then you're screwed and you go bankrupt because you overextended right. So you have to be as hard as it is. Sometimes, like you pay your taxes and you you protect the base, you don't want to get screwed being caught all in on margin. You don't want to get screwed being caught in really speculative deals and being all in on speculation, really dangerous, so elon musk says we probably are in a recession and that things could likely get worse and uh that things could get worse for another 12 to 18 Months this by the way in the q a session afterwards uh.

I asked the all-in podcast folks about this and and chemotherapy a couple of them responded and they believe that we're probably going to see pain for you know, potentially through 2024 or maybe even 2025, that this is like it's going to take a while, and then you Kind of look back to the dot-com bubble. You know that took us from 2000 to 2003 to find bottom. So you know personally, i think, there's there's quite a good chance, uh higher likelihood than not that markets find bottom before that and and teeter above them. But this consistent bleed, i don't know how much further can we go we'll see, but anyway, uh elon, musk uh talks about immigration that how anybody who wants to work hard should be able to work in the united states is very similar to the argument i had When i ran for governor i'm like what like, if somebody wants to work here really hard and they wave away all their benefits, why why don't we let them in like? Why is it so hard for me to hire somebody from another country? I have to go through, you know two years of applications and they have to have a phd or something like what, if i just have like somebody that i know in ukraine, who's like a really really good worker, and they will do anything for a job here And then i could supply everything for them.

Insurance housing pay, everything like they would be contributing to our gdp. Why are we not allowing that it's politics sucks anyway, uh then elon musk says. Look the obvious reason for inflation. Is the government printed a zillion more dollars than it has and uh look velocity of money held constant you get inflation.

Velocity of money has come down, but we still printed substantially more than that. So then he talks a little bit about about china and really the big takeaway from this was that he says the folks in china have a massive huge work ethic and when he was talked about the the sort of difference between americans and china chinese, he said. Look americans we got to step up our game that tesla's got a very strong work ethic individuals at tesla do that great company, but he says quote: the work ethic in china is exceeded on balance by uh the tesla china team, in other words, like the work Ethic in the u.s is exceeded by the tesla china team on average, and he says that this doesn't mean that there aren't hard-working individuals at tesla in america. He's just sort of calling it like it is then uh he uh.

You know we briefly circle back to some closing remarks, but then elon has to take off. So that's literally everything elon just said and remember, link down below for the programs, i'm building your wealth with that coaching call. That's now available check out on that tonight. If you've got questions email me at kevin bkevin.com, i am getting inundated with emails.

People thanking me for all the lows for pros and all the crazy stuff and connections that we've got once you sign up so uh you got ta be patient with the emails. It does no good to send another email, but i just caught up on on a bunch of them and i'm gon na do it again soon, so stay tuned and i'll keep bringing the updates thanks. So much for being here and we'll see you soon, bye.