A meteor is heading to crash into our economy, says joe biden. Hey everyone meet kevin here, joe biden's, obviously complaining about the debt limit and congress's inability to get the debt ceiling raised. Let's talk about the latest updates on that three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package and this debt ceiling negotiation. Remember that janet yellen says our x date appears to be october 18th, for when the government defaults on its debt for the first time in our history, meaning that social security payments might not be able to get made.

We might not get those child tax credits. We might not see our bond payments get paid which could reduce the united states credit rating. A lot of bad things could happen. So many bad things could happen.

That folks are basically saying if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised. Joe biden will not get a second term which of course has 50 percent of people. Saying don't worry, he's not getting a second term anyway, but the other 50 percent of people are saying uh. Well, we need to make sure that this debt ceiling gets raised, but anyway we're not taking sides here, we're providing the facts and the fact is chuck schumer made it very clear that he wants to increase the debt limit by the end of this week.

It is tuesday right now and chuck schumer wrote a letter to the senate, saying we must get a bill to the president's desk, dealing with the debt limit by the end of the week period. Schumer did not detail exactly how he plans on achieving this. He has two ways to do it: one is to use budget reconciliation, which he can only use one more time, and he really wants to use the three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure plan for uh. They could bundle these two things together, but they better get moving on it and honestly, i feel like they've, been i've been saying for weeks now they better get moving on and it just feels like they haven't, really been getting moving on it and the other option Would be to pass a bill in the house and then vote on that in the senate, but get 10 republicans to agree to close the debate to prevent a filibuster on that bill, which just basically means extending debate in perpetuity essentially being able to kill a bill.

Without 60 votes - and this is where we heard from elizabeth warren today - elizabeth warren today said that republicans should get out of democrats way. She makes it very clear that mitch mcconnell says that democrats should raise the debt ceiling on their own, so elizabeth warren says fine. Let us raise it on our own vote to end debate so that way we can pass raising the debt ceiling. You all don't have to do it.

All you have to do is say we can end debate avoid filibustering this bill. Let us pass it. None of you actually have to vote for the bill. It's common sense response, but republicans know the real reason.

They're voting to not uh close debate on the debt ceiling standalone bill or that's what we expect they will do is because they want to use the debt ceiling to force democrats into speeding up the infrastructure. Talk in that three and a half trillion dollar bill, because if they speed it up and have to get that three and a half trillion dollar bill done with an infrastructure budget, reconciliation process and the debt ceiling increase, the package is probably likely to be a whole Lot smaller, which will be a win for republicans now schumer is setting a vote for tomorrow on a standalone debt ceiling, suspension bill. It is likely that 10 republicans will not join democrats and the gop leader, the minority leader mitch mcconnell, is maintaining. That democrats should use that budget reconciliation plan, but we've got some updates now on where we stand with the three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package - and this is interesting.

The final infrastructure plan is now likely to be significantly less than three and a half trillion dollars. In fact, joe biden told a group of house progressives today that the bill will likely need to be between 1.9 and 2.2 trillion dollars. Representative ro khanna said that it is clear the bill will be quote significantly less than the original three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure plan, and when bernie sanders was asked about this, he said he was not open to a 1.5 trillion dollar package, but really convincing Bernie sanders isn't what's most important here. What's most important is convincing joe manchin and kirsten cinema, joe manchin has not ruled out being okay with a 1.9 to 2.2 trillion dollar infrastructure package, so we're starting to align that joe biden's recognizing we're going to have a smaller package, joe manchin's, okay, with a smaller Package now we got to make sure the house progressives caucus chairwoman and people like aoc are okay with a smaller package, because that smaller package is going to have to get through those progressives in the house as well to make sure that it happens on both sides.

So far, we have a counter offer from the house progressives at 2.5 to 3 trillion dollars, and it's really interesting because we're not really even debating what's going to be in it. It's all just the top line number is what it appears right now, at least that's what we're hearing in media. So the chair of the house progressive caucus countered with 2.5 to 3 trillion dollars, joe biden and joe manchin seem to be around 1.9 to 2.2. If we take the high here and the low here, we're within 15 of a deal 2.2 to 2.5 ish, that's that's not bad! We are getting closer getting closer than we have really been at any point before, and it really feels like this is probably going to get solidified around that two to two and a half trillion dollar range.

Despite the fact that two weeks ago, joe biden said we will not do a two and a 2.9 trillion dollar bill that was 2.9, he said we're going to do a 3.5 trillion dollar bill. I think he uh realized. The writing was on the wall that his plan was going to fall apart, but wanted to maintain that sort of facade of optimism that didn't go where it didn't go anywhere. I should say to try to continue to cheer his infrastructure package.

Joe biden spoke in front of a union today with caterpillar trucks. In the background talking about the fact that we are at an inflection point in america and that the bills, the two bills, we have are hard infrastructure package worth between one and 1.2 trillion dollars and the social infrastructure package now potentially worth between one and a half And 2.5 trillion dollars we'll see instead of three trillion dollars, that these bills are about competitiveness and creating a rising america. There's a lot of talk about americans, paying their fair share, especially millionaires and billionaires, which what's really interesting. Is it this a lot of the references that joe biden makes, in my opinion, are very similar to what teddy roosevelt said back when he was president in the early 1900s teddy roosevelt was known as the trust buster a progressive reformer, and he wanted a square deal To make sure we had fair deals for the average citizen and the average business person.

I thought this was really interesting, because this is exactly what joe biden talks about with his interest in having a fair deal between workers, the middle class and lower classes and the upper class. The millionaires and billionaires making sure that millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share and fair tax rates. Joe biden spent a lot of time talking about not progress, updates on how negotiations were going, but how important it is that we lead the world in electric vehicles. We build hundreds of thousands of charging stations that economists agree we're going to create jobs.

He references that moody says we're gon na create two million jobs, but he doesn't reference the fact that the tax foundation thinks his three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure plan would actually lose us jobs. Joe biden says his hard infrastructure package. Uh would create jobs where 90 of the jobs we create, don't require a college degree and they can't be outsourced and he wants to make sure we can do whatever. We can do to finally get america on the path of having better infrastructure, building new electrical lines and getting rid of lead based water pipes or or pipes that contain lead in the metal alloy.

So joe biden mentions also very clearly that there is no gas tax increase on the infrastructure bill. This is because there's a lot of murmuring in social media that there's going to be a gas tax increase. Joe biden made it very clear that there is no gas tax increase in the infrastructure package and that he doesn't think that a gas tax increase would be fair because that would lower or that would increase taxes on those making less than four hundred thousand dollars, which Something he's promised not to do now. He also says that it's not fair, that millionaires and billionaires are paying taxes at lower rates than normal american workers are or average earning american workers are.

This is obviously a reference to the fact that corporations currently pay 21 in taxes, but a lot of americans pay somewhere between 25 to 37 percent in income taxes. Now it is also worth noting that corporations pay taxes twice. You pay taxes at 21 at the corporate level, then profits go from the corporations and get distributed to shareholders and individuals, and then they pay taxes again in the form of capital gains taxes. And when you combine that double taxation, you tend to pay more taxes going through a corporate and then dividend tax structure than you do if you were just receiving money directly like individuals.

Do that usually doesn't get mentioned in politics, though, that double taxation also some folks say well, but some people they just invest in stocks and only get paid in dividends, they're they're, not paying that corporate tax. The corporation makes money and they just get dividends and they live off the dividends. That's fine, but at some point that money was taxed before it got invested generally. There are ways to never pay taxes and joe biden is trying to close those loopholes as well like getting rid of the perpetual 1031 tax deferred exchange and then the stepped-up tax bases, joe biden, went as far as calling himself a tax or i'm sorry, a capitalist To to make sure that things were fair, but that way we were still spending and investing in our economy, but in this particular speech joe biden did not give us any particular negotiation updates.

All he mentioned is that you should get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to memkevin.com life link down below, and you can sign up in as little as five minutes. Obviously you didn't say that, but anyway, let's keep going now. Aoc has actually chimed in on this, and this is something we've talked about before. As being likely to happen, she says quote one of the ideas: that's out.

There is fully fund what they want to do, but instead of funding it for 10 years, just fund it for five now janet yellen says that we should not consider the idea of the treasury secretary borrowing more money to pay off the debt. She's doing this to sell the idea of the package right: hey, it's not going to cost us anything. Let's get this done. So that's where we stand right now is we are compromising on the top line number and we're actually getting closer.

In my opinion, this is bullish for the stock market. This is good for investing, because we're going to see uncertainty evaporate. Remember jobs, data this friday, cpi inflation data next wednesday. Then we're going to get this infrastructure plan and debt ceiling issue done.

Then the ever grant issue is going to be in the past. What do we have left, then? What the taper of the beginning of november to look forward to which we already expect is going to happen a big deal and uncertainty is evaporating in the markets. It's a good thing we're finally uh looking like we might be able to make some progress here, and i'm excited about that. Thank you so much for watching folks and we'll see you in the next one bye,.