Everyone meet kevin here, so the government's about to default on its debt. We've got to pass a new budget by september 30th or kick the can down the road by then otherwise. Treasury department and janet yellen are going to have a heart attack which hopefully, they have life insurance, which you can also get in as little as five minutes. By going to medkevin.com life, but, most importantly, where the heck are.

We in negotiations about this infrastructure package and the debt limit, and then there's also talk about potentially hurricane and disaster relief and money for afghan refugees where the heck are we what is going on? Well folks, it is so complicated. The easiest thing to do is just throw it on a flow chart because who doesn't like good flow all right folks, let's get into good flow option number one all right. This is where we start option number one for congress, so option number one for congress is passing a bipartisan continuing resolution and legislation to provide funding for disasters, but also provide funding for afghan refugees and then, at the same time, kick the can down the road on The budget deficit, which nancy pelosi is trying to kick the can down the road to december of 2022.. That's right! I didn't get that wrong.

I had to double check it too, not 2021, like december of this year, but 2022 is what she's trying to kick the can down the road to now, it's possible that this is just an attempt at clever negotiating. So that way, republicans are like what. How could you ask for it for a year and three months how about we just agree on december of 2021 and then we'll agree to it? I i kind of think that's the kind of negotiation that's going on here, because it's kind of weird to just do a temporary stop gap bill to have no debt limit until 2022, but that is what nancy pelosi is arguing for right now. She actually says that it's republicans fault, that we are out of money and that we need to eliminate the debt ceiling, at least until december of next year, because republicans passed an expensive covert relief bill under donald trump.

At the end of last year, the 600 stimulus package - they didn't mention anything about the 1400 stimulus package that was passed in february of this year, but nancy pelosi did talk about that 600 package anyway. So how would this look well, this bill or group of bills? Would be a slam dunk in the house, the house of representatives can afford to lose three representatives in opposition, but i expect that they'll have plenty of people to get this done. In fact, i would not be surprised to see republicans join in on this continuing resolution to extend the uh the budget deficit ceiling uh through potentially the end of next year, because at the same time, there's also going to be a vote, uh or potentially even tied. To this on disaster relief for victims of hurricanes disaster relief for areas affected by flooding and hurricanes and money for afghan refugees, so it's probably going to be a slam.

Dunk in the house where it becomes a problem is when this legislative text goes over to the senate. In order for this to pass in the senate, you need 60 votes to do what's known as invoking cloture. So cloture closes the debate on this particular package or sets a set of bills, and once the debate has been closed, then you can pass these bills with just 51 votes problem is republicans are very unlikely to give that 60 votes uh because republic, we would have To have 10 republicans in the senate to join in on voting for essentially removing the debt ceiling until the end of 2022, which seems highly unlikely and we'll talk about what some republicans have said in just a moment. But the argument here is: hey nancy pelosi, saying: let's slam dunk these bills then send it to the senate, then publicly.

Shame the senate by saying look you all could help us prevent the government from defaulting. You all could provide money for afghans who need it and refugees and you all could provide disaster relief money, but you're, saying no and so nancy pelosi is going to try to politically shame republicans into at the very least voting for cloture. So that way they could say they just voted to end debate, but then not have them vote on the actual bill, because you only need 51 votes for the actual bill. Democrats pass it along party line and boom.

This is done. That's option. Number one biden supports this path and pelosi and schumer want want to go down this path. They've announced this i've written some notes here.

Mitch. Mcconnell has responded to this saying: look. He is not going to provide any support in the form of invoking cloture voting. For that 60 votes or contributing to that 60 votes to end the debate and actually pass this legislation, mcconnell says: look, we don't have a divided government.

Democrats can do all of this on their own and really what he's doing here is he's trying to force. The democrats, hands to say, look we're not going to support you. We won't vote to end debate. You could just go ahead and use budget reconciliation to pass this legislative text and respond to the debt ceiling.

You don't need us well. Reconciliation is the second option, but it's not the preferred option by democrats see with reconciliation. You only need 51 votes. You don't have to invoke cloture.

You can bypass invoking cloture, but it burns the democrats opportunity to use the budget reconciliation plan again which they want to use the budget reconciliation plan on the 3.5 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Now maybe they can combine money for afghan refugees, money for disaster relief, money for uh infrastructure and the debt limit all into that same 3.5. Trillion dollar bill pass that through budget reconciliation, but they'd have to go super duper fast at getting that three and a half trillion dollar bill done and negotiated, because it's not yet we're still not sure. Are we going to see the salt tax deduction? Are we going to see changes to people's retirement accounts? Who are we going to tax exactly and by how much are we going to tax them? We don't have a solid solution yet because it's all still in flux and again democrats do not want to burn their opportunity to use budget reconciliation just on expanding the debt limit, because they want to make sure they have that tool on the tool belt.

So to speak for their three and a half trillion dollar plan, so the other thing is budget. Reconciliation is not ideal for the scenario, because budget reconciliation would require. You pick an actual number in terms of we're going to raise the debt limit to 24 trillion or whatever you'd have to pick some kind of number, which is very likely to be politically unpopular as opposed to what the democrats are trying to do right now, which Is just say, let's just completely get rid of the limit until december of 2022, which is obviously creating heart palpitations with a lot of republicans. The third option, which has been cheered by progressives like aoc or bernie sanders, would be overriding, the parliamentarian or basically changing the rules like editing the filibuster or ending the filibuster rather editing the rules to end the filibuster is what i mean to say, uh or potentially Even firing the parliamentarian to change the way they can get, these plans done and basically loophole in to get their three and a half trillion dollar package done to get their immigration reform done, which the parliamentarian blocked, maybe even to get minimum wage done, which the parliamentarian Also blocked that 15 minimum wage and democrats could potentially make large changes here, but these changes would then be an opportune solution for republicans to reverse all of these changes if they had power or got power in 2022.

So, in my opinion, this is something that's popular to say for somebody like aoc. I think it's very unlikely to happen, though, because it doesn't play the long game it just plays. The short i'm gon na say something dramatic to show how important my priorities are, but not really actually get anything done. So i don't think changing the rules or ending the filibuster.

I don't think any of that is actually going to work. I don't expect the minimum wage to show up on this. I don't expect the immigration reform to show up in this, where democrats right now do say that they have other ideas and options, but really we're probably just not going to see the minimum wage, probably not going to see immigration reform come up in this. In my opinion, the most likely option is that we get some form of a number one.

That is, we pass that bill in the house. It ends up getting held up in the senate and we end up having a really sort of tense negotiation in the senate until finally, 10 republicans get pressured to invoke cloture and the debate, and then let democrats unilaterally pass this bill. Then it opens the door wide open for democrats to use budget reconciliation on the three and a half trillion dollar bill. See republicans in this scenario would actually be handing democrats, the 300, the 3.5 trillion dollar stimulus package, basically republicans best chance to kill the three and a half trillion dollar package is literally to hold it up right now by taking the country and leveraging the country and Threatening the country's default, which has never happened before, like a political, hot potato, throwing it at janet yellen and joe biden and saying, go ahead default on the country's obligations.

But we're not going to support this three and a half trillion dollar package at all through any means now in terms of quotes and some expectations here. Mitt romney, who usually sides with bipartisans and centrists, says, he's absolutely no to raising the debt limit and he's absolutely a no to supporting the invoking of cloture, so he won't vote for cloture or the bill itself. On the flip side, you have republican senator john kennedy, who says he will reluctantly vote for the continuing resolution, the stopgap funding measure and that also suspends the debt limit, and that's because he wants to get that disaster relief funding for louisiana. He believes that the disaster aid is critical for his district, but he also says he does not think that a full 10 republicans are actually going to vote for this unless all of a sudden there are 10 republicans like him, he says quote i'll, probably vote for The continuing resolution - and he then goes on to say, there's no way: it'll get 10 gop votes, though mcconnell is not bluffing, so this is kind of interesting it'll.

Be one of those head counts again where we look around and go okay, are we going to get those 10 votes? I don't know if we'll get the 10 votes on the actual bill doubt that, but on potentially invoking cloture yeah could definitely happen now. We do also have a timing issue with all of this see. Take a look at this i'll, throw this up on screen again here so aoc says she will not vote for the one trillion dollar infrastructure package, the hard infrastructure package, unless we also vote on the three and a half trillion dollar package. Well, right now, the vote for the one trillion dollar package is set for 9.27.

We also got to get a vote done before 9 30 on the budget deficit, the continuing resolution, the budget or the um aid for afghans, the aid for disaster relief right. That would all be included in the continuing resolution - the cr before 9 30. and then at some point. We got to get that three and a half trillion dollar bill voted on.

But aoc is saying: she's not going to vote for step number one right here. Unless this package is done, but that package is nowhere near dumb, then you have kirsten cinema who says she will not vote as a democrat on the three and a half trillion dollar bill unless we also honor voting on the one trillion dollar bill on september 27th. So you literally have folks here on opposite ends, complaining for their own demands, and so this is why right now, there's so much uncertainty, because we just don't have the text for the three and a half trillion dollar bill. Yet the negotiation is not done for that.

Yet we don't have a clear path in terms of how this continuing resolution is going to get done this package for 927, the one trillion dollar package - that's already done - that's already been passed by the senate and it just needs to get rubber stamped by the house, But nancy pelosi is holding that hostage because she wants to vote on that bill at the same time as the three and a half trillion dollar package and wants to get the continuing resolution done to suspend the debt ceiling until the end of next year. So this gives you a lot of catch up background. What's the big bottom line, the big bottom line is, as nancy pelosi says, the next 48 hours are going to be absolutely critical in these negotiations in the next 48 hours. We will know if we're going to be able to get a continuing resolution scheduled for debate and a vote again.

We expect it to pass the house. We expect to have big issues in the senate. In the meantime, democrats will go on their stomping ground tour, probably over the weekend, complaining about how reckless republicans are for not voting to support the suspension of the debt ceiling so that the government can keep paying its debts. Then you're going to have people like janet yellen coming out janet yellen's gon na come out and say things like hey.

Well, if we let the debt ceiling expire, it'll be the first time that we've ever let the debt ceiling, expire, 50 million seniors, could stop receiving checks. Millions who rely on the child tax credit could stop getting it. The government would default which we've never had before, that could lead to a spike in interest rates which could cause stocks to drop and which could cause turmoil in the markets and there's no valid reason to do this. That, by the way, those were little snippets from an op-ed that she did in the wall street journal, so you could really see what's happening here, the most likely path.

Okay, this now i'm going to draw it i've, given you all the options, i'm just going to draw out the most likely path right here. Okay, most likely is we get the continuing resolution past in house and i'm gon na write up here forecast. So nobody is confused and thinking that this is actually done. So the forecast here is a continuing resolution passed in the house and i would imagine this would get passed somewhere by 9 24, which is the day the coupon code for my programs down below, expires 40 off price is going to go up big after that, then I expect this to have like a media circus over the weekend and then probably by the 30th.

I really would expect that the senate will probably have been bullied into invoking cloture and then passing this along party lines. I do also think that, ultimately, the house will end up voting to pass the one trillion dollar package on the 27th aoc can afford to or not aoc nancy pelosi could afford to lose three representatives to get that infrastructure package done. Uh, maybe that'll be aoc and and one or two other people whatever, but i do think that infrastructure package will probably get passed on time, uh and and if this happens uh the way. I picture it here the big specific portion being here, the senate actually allowing this continuing resolution to go through.

If this happens, it's pretty much going to guarantee that democrats are going to get that three and a half trillion dollar package done, because then they wouldn't have had to use their budget reconciliation to keep the government funded, and that three and a half trillion dollar package Will get past the long party lines through budget reconciliation? So really, if republicans want to kill this three and a half trillion dollar package right here, they need to stop this. The the democrats in the senate with this continuing resolution and stop gap measure, because if they stop the democrats here democrats will probably be forced to use the budget reconciliation on extending the debt, which means they would not be able to get a budget reconciliation. On that three and a half trillion dollar bill, and it would probably put that three and a half trillion dollar bill to rest, it would probably be dead. So really this comes down to will ten republicans say okay over here and allow this continuing resolution and lifting of the debt ceiling to go through mitch.

Mcconnell says no, but nancy pelosi and chuck schumer. They think they can get 10 people to come along. You already have one person, john kennedy, saying i'm on board to saying: okay, because i want that disaster relief. Well, that is basically going to open up the door that 3.5 trillion, especially if you get 10 republicans to do it.

So that gives you an outlook here. This week is going to be very, very busy with updates on this so anyway. Thank you so very much for watching this. If you like this kind of content, make sure to subscribe and folks we'll see in the next one thanks again bye, you.