You will not believe when the cyber coupon code's gon na be expiring for the programs on building your wealth, the night of 420, which is also the night of tesla's earnings, call hey everyone kevin here. So this morning, cpi data came out and we did a complete breakdown about how core cpi came in substantially lower than expected at just an annualized rate of 3.6, giving at least some credence to the idea that maybe if core inflation at the moment is transitory, and We continue to see this trend, then this could be good news that we could actually avoid a recession. Now, of course, every republican and conservative media outlet has been declaring the worst inflation in 40 years and they're right. This is the worst inflation we've had in 40 years, but most media outlets are missing the details which of course, we went through all of the details this morning.

But why then, if this month-over-month cpi inflation, the core cpi inflation, which strips out food and oil just to see if we could separate war and really temporary issues, war, which hopefully at least, are temporary and all of the other pricing issues, we have. Why? Then, if this was good news, did the market turn red today? Is the market confused and what other signals can we look at because it feels like we got a little bit rug pulled today almost well. Let's talk about that in this video. The first thing that we're going to do is we're going to try before we even bother looking at what the stock market did.

We're going to look at some fundamentals, we're going to start with the five year break. Even now, the five year break even is a chart that we regularly refer to, because it's the bond market's way of telling us how much inflation do we actually think we're going to get. How long is inflation going to be a problem and, most importantly, are our expectations of inflation getting worse or are they getting better look? I want to be very clear: high inflation is bad, especially for low earners, but the point of this channel is to figure out how do we position our investments? Do we position our investments for a recession and a massive federal reserve rug poll, or are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel or is that light at the end of the tunnel? Just an uncoming train? I don't know, but let's take a look now. I'm choking on my coffee, but the good news is: we have some data here from the bond market.

Take a look at this. This is that five-year break-even chart and take a look. What it did we're going to zoom in to get the day data today as well, but we've seen this five-year break-even inflation. This is the market's expectations of inflation, skyrocket from the point of war to well about the end of march, especially as the stock market was actually rallying substantially.

We had this pretty incredible rally where the nasdaq almost retraced 60 percent, from its lows on february 24th. So during this time, the nasdaq recovered 60 of its losses, which is incredible. At the same time, expectations of inflation were going through the roof. These are the markets, expectations of inflation, they're different from consumer expectations of inflation, and some believe that the market's expectations of inflation can tend to be more appropriate to look at, and what you'll notice here is that we've actually had a decline throughout april in inflation expectations.

Let's zoom in a little bit, let's see if we could just zoom in to about the last five days here. You know what three days there we go. Take a look at this this morning we got our cpi report right here. You can see.

Expectations for inflation fell with the cpi report's release. This makes sense, core inflation fell and, of course, it's the read of cpi, which we don't necessarily have to trust, but look at it. This way at least the way i like to look at it is yeah. Let's say that the government's telling us inflation's 8.5 - okay, you - and i we know it's probably more - like 14 right or something like that - maybe even more in some cases.

But the point is what i want to look at is when even the rig numbers start going down, then i would expect that the real numbers are also going to go down right. I'm looking for the change, i'm not trying to shield a cpi report and say it's god or it's perfect. I guarantee you it's not. I mean even just the way they calculate rents is quite frankly, moronic.

Okay, i can calculate rents better than they can calculate rents. Okay, that sounds like i got a big ego, but it's literally just me saying: if you go into the mls, you can calculate rental comps way better than you can by asking what homeowners think the rents are worth with owner's equivalent rents, it's the stupidest thing ever, But anyway, not only did inflation expectations fall when that report came out, but look at what happened throughout the rest of the hours of the day more decline. This is good, and so now, if we go back to this five year - and we continue to see this five-year break even fall, then what is that actually a signal of? Well, it's a signal that wait a minute. Maybe just maybe inflation will go down this year and wait a minute if inflation does go down this year.

Maybe we don't end up having a recession? Okay, fine! Well, what's the big signal of a recession that everybody was freaking out about? Well, remember: the inverted yield curve, the difference between the 10-year treasury curve and the two-year treasury curve. Let's get an update on how that's doing and i'll keep myself hidden here for a moment, because you're going to want to pay attention to the corner that i usually sit in, take a look at that bottom right: corner holy crap! Look at that folks! You see the zero line right here that when we go below that, that is when we have an inverted yield curve, but look at what's happened. It's substantially uninverted, because inflation expectations are going down. Recession.

Expectations are actually going down, not up. They were really bad about a week and a half ago. Don't get me wrong, everybody's, like oh, my gosh, that's it! Recession is coming right, but we're actually reversing this problem now. This is really really good, but what else do we have going on? First, we have a message from our sponsor and then a lot more facts and data now can i just say if you are not using ftx to trade, your crypto yet, and you are not using the amazing trading indicating tools that they have with their integration with Tradingview, you are missing out check out the link down below for ftx who's sponsoring today's video one of my favorites by the way, is the exponential moving average 20 day and buying the dip when we get a nice pull and deviation away from that ema.

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Ftx, a link down below they've got a special sign up bonus for you check it out thanks so much to ftx for sponsoring. Well, this is the uh 10-2 spread uh, just showing us the actual time frame here, and you can see this is when the cpi report came up, so we saw a little bit more steepening here, which is good, that's great, and then this is the 10-year treasury Bond which is still an issue, it's still rising, even though we're off that peak of almost 2.8 we're still seeing the 10-year rise. But that's okay, because even though the 10 year is going up which we expect it to, we expect it to go to three percent and potentially substantially over three percent. This is why i'm saying you know real estate is going to come under pressure.

That doesn't necessarily mean dump all your real estate and bail. I am a big person of along in real estate. I happen to be personally in a convenient situation where i'm making a move with my real estate to a better opportunity which y'all gon na know about. In about, i don't know two or three months, but i think i've been saying two or three months for about a month now.

So i guess maybe it's more like two or four months. You can learn about that. Of course, by going back, kevin.com series a uh, that's when you uh you'll get alerts on exactly what that opportunity is uh course. Members will have the first opportunity to invest in whatever that opportunity may be not allowed to go into details right now, but uh course.

Members who and you're welcome to use that coupon code cyberkevin. I will always make sure i get provided as much potential bonus value as possible, and so that's going to be one of them anywho. So let's now understand why, then, why then did the stock market have such a fussy hissy fit today and the reality? Is you never know you never know, but let's take a look at exactly what happened. So this right here is the one hour chart on the qqq, the nasdaq and what's very important to notice.

Here are a few things. One look at this sort of quad set of bounces. We got on the 23.6 line on the fibonacci retracement between uh january 24th and january 28th. My birthday okay.

This was a really rough time. This is a very strong support line. This 23.6 retracement, but not only is this a very strong support line count these with me february 24th boom one bounce off the zero uh march, 8th a bounce off the zero retracement march 14th right before the fomc meeting bounce off the zero percent. Look at this triple hardcore bounce over here these fibonacci retracement lines matter.

They tell institutions when we are at peak levels of fear or euphoria. This is why i said: if we retrace to 66, you need to short the market or take profits. Unfortunately, we ended up getting stuck at 61.8 percent, just shy of when i was planning on shorting the market. That's okay can't be perfect.

I had a strategy and i always like being very transparent about those and adjusting now we're in a situation where what are we doing? Look at this folks we're getting a double bounce off the 23.6 line. This means right now we're having similar levels of uncertainties, as we did in january. In my opinion, for us to actually go back to the zero percent line, we would have needed horrible cpi data today and, of course, that headline read was bad but not bad enough to actually get us to drive down, especially when we had good news on that. Month-Over-Month data - this means, in my opinion, i think, right here at this 23.6 line, and this double test today is actually a testament of hey.

Maybe we should consider buying the dip, because look at this, we got close to that 23.6 yesterday and we hardcore bounced off of it today. You can see in the pre-market here we're bouncing off that 23.6 line. In my opinion, that is a buy the dip opportunity unless, of course, you believe we could retrace to the zero or things could get even worse. But if you're hanging your hat on a recession, the inverted yield curve or runaway inflation or uh the this takeoff of of uh break even inflation expectations.

Those things are not happening right now. Now there are a few people who had a few things to say on twitter that i responded to and i'm going to highlight these because personally, while i respect these individuals, i think they're wrong. Now you might think i'm wrong, but that's okay. We watch and read to understand other individuals perspectives right.

So the first one is this one right here. This is from uh anastasia, amaroso, she's awesome. By the way, she says that signs of easing inflation pressures or demand destruction due to a 40 year-over-year surge in used car prices, question mark and she's referring to 3.8 percent decline in used car prices. Now, one of the things that i replied with was the fact that wait a minute remember this about our inflation report.

Airfares lodging and car rentals, all of which increase between seven to ten plus percent uh, suggest to me that the consumer is still quite strong in spending. But it is absolutely likely that they've re-allocated to leisure versus buying cars, but the good news is they are still spending which is good for preventing a recession. Uh, let's scroll up a little bit here through my tweets, a little bit more make sure you follow me at real me kevin for the nonsense i post over here uh, so here, mr macroalph who's a mega bear okay, very, very bearish! That's all i got to say: that's not an insult he's, just not very happy right now. Okay, like every day, it's he's unhappy, that's it uh, but anyway he writes bond market rallying as month over month, core cpi printed at quote-unquote only point three percent uh and there's a little bit of shade here in the quote-unquote.

Only uh, like only point three percent, is actually good. Remember, that's three point: six percent inflation yeah it's slightly above the two percent two and a half percent target somewhere in between there is where we think the real rates will end up being uh and real inflation will end up being, but it has actually really low. Like in in what we've been dealing with over the last 18 months, 3.6 is yes, it is an only okay, i'll take that hands down any day now, on the second part, he is correct in saying that the miss on core is most likely explained by a Drop in used car prices - and this is fact but what's important here - is to remember that jerome powell is the one who's always been telling us used. Car prices will come down and when these numbers come down, they will drag down core inflation with it.

Jerome powell has been telling us this for a year and a half, it's just only now happening, and so nobody wants to say that oh snap, this is a sign that things are actually going in the direction of jerome powell being correct, because that's not the popular Thing to say so far, it's been quite a long period of transitory for this to happen, but yeah, even if used cars are to blame. It is literally what we've been expecting, and so the argument then alph makes is that services. Inflation has uh hit a cycle high of 0.7 and therefore the fed's still going to do a 50 basis. Point hike, and this again has to do with that air travel lodging and car rental section that i talked about in response to the last post.

But remember what does the fed want? Folks, the fed wants the economy to be strong and inflation to go down. If people can spend money traveling, then they can prevent a recession if inflation is going down at the same time as people are spending money, why tighten the screws even more? Let it play out? Let inflation wane out over time as people continue to spend, because if inflation goes down as people continue to spend what happens, you remove the big boogie man of inflation from the market and you prevent a recession. The last thing you want is inflation going down, and then you tighten the screws so much that you go into a recession anyway. It's like inflation was on the way down.

Now you make a mistake and you cause a recession, and now you kill demand on purpose. On top of inflation going down anyway, now you end up in a depressive economy, that's even worse, because then you get job loss, which is the worst case scenario. So sorry, mr alph, i agree with you in what you're saying i just don't agree with the conclusion. My thoughts, let me know what you think in the comments down below and make sure to use that coupon code cyberkevin.

It will be expiring on 420. thanks. So much bye.