11 A.M 11 A.M on Wednesday November 23rd you should have your calendar marked for that because we are about to get a report that should have the biggest shift that we have seen yet and we're going to talk about exactly what to expect, what we're looking for, and what could happen in the stock market. Obviously in this video where I'm holding this not empty cup of coffee see there's coffee. oh the haters I think my cups of coffee are empty how do I get as much done without coffee I couldn't I couldn't do it. wouldn't happen. I've tried it before I just end up napping. It's bad. gotta have coffee Anyway, this video is brought to you by Mumu and the Black Friday coupon code link down below. Of course folks, we're talking about the Federal Reserve minutes which come out tomorrow tomorrow at 11. A.M I will be live streaming the release of these and this is the first report that is coming out that we expect to actually see the Federal Reserve acknowledge the two-sided risk of hiking and Hawking keep in mind that this is also the meeting where Jerome Powell first came out and suggested hey, you know we're thinking about going with a slow down 50 basis point hike We had Nikki leaks leaking the idea about the 50 basis point hike for December which will be in in about two and a half weeks from now. We had a lot of enthusiasm that came about this potential Fed rate hike slowdown and we had a lot of uh, you know, recognition from Jerome Powell that hey, you know, we've we've gotta And this is what he said in the press conference. we've got to recognize that there are lagging effects of monetary policies. That was the uh, that was the first time the very first time Jerome Powell actually recognized and talked about the lag of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statement talked about the lag Jerome Powell talked about the lag And that means they talked about the lag in the meeting and tomorrow we get the minutes for those and it's the first meeting where we actually are going to get a lot of lag talk. The only reason markets want really fussy is because that one reporter started yapping his trap about how markets were rallying on what Jerome Powell was saying which wasn't even true at the time, leading markets to sell off when Jerome Powell ended up going hard, suggesting that it feels like we haven't made any progress. Remember the takeaways from last Fomc meeting after the press conference? Okay, remember some of the takeaways drum Powell Said things like it seems like we're not making any progress. It doesn't seem like things are any better now than they were last year. At this time, it doesn't actually seem like we have sustained declines in inflation. Now do keep in mind this: Hawking came as a result of a press reporter asking a stupid question came before the CPI report for October which came in low before the low PPI report the producer price inflation report. Uh and uh came. You know as a result of a prompt from a reporter who wasn't recognizing that like just give drum Powell the opportunity to bask in the idea of talking about a Slowdown in rates. And that's the discussion that we're going to analyze tomorrow in detail. but I want to tell you exactly what to look forward to tomorrow and what the market could do with the warning right after a message from our sponsor. And it's not the 60 off coupon code for Black Friday it's Mumu But before we get into that I want to thank today's sponsor MooMoo Mumu is an advanced a One-Stop trading app that makes it easy for Traders to do any and everything they need. 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We are looking for the following: What Specifically, is the Fed looking for in terms of a lack because at the moment we still have mixed signals from consumers going through spending. they're borrowing more money. Where are they suggesting the lag is? Jerome Powell In press conferences has told us that the monetary policy lag might actually be very short because Financial conditions begin to tighten in anticipation of what the Federal Reserve says. Turning on the head this idea that it takes 18 months for monetary policy to actually affect markets. What if that theory has been revised? What if we get commentary in the Fomc minutes tomorrow that suggests the the Federal Reserve has concluded monetary policy lags by six months? Well, then it's entirely possible that the FED might say look, what if we in these minutes, what if we were to pause in March we would then see Peak fed heightening hiking effects essentially in September of 2023.. folks, almost every estimate for inflation for September of 2023 is substantially lower. And guess what also starts potentially happening in September of 2023.. according to JP Morgan, we actually expect finally shelter inflation to roll over. That's when we expect the lagging owner's equivalent rent to actually roll over. September of 2023 Should be a very good period for markets, as data actually comes in really soft on not just inflation across the board barring any other kind of war or whatever. Uh, That Could That Could temporarily Spike inflation or or covet outbreak or whatever. My gosh, not that again. So we want to see an understanding of what the FED views as a lag. How long is that lag? How many people think it's three months? Six months, or nine months? Because that's going to give us a very interesting trajectory of when the FED actually is trying to align Peak tightness right? That will be very, very good for markets. and the stock market likes to price in, uh, its expectations for the future about 12 months in advance. So if we start thinking we're potentially going to be in a trajectory of stocks leading us out of a recession come Q2 Q3 of 2023, markets could slowly start trying to price that in. and tomorrow, we're not going to have a press That's Hawking Us: That's uh, that's Hawk you know, leading Jerome Powell to to talk dirty to us. what we're actually going to get is probably just the bullish talk. The bullish talk about a pause and lags and we want to see how aggressive that talk is, how aggressive the talk of two-sided risks of Hawking and Hiking are. And I believe we can actually see a decent rally in the stock market between tomorrow November 23rd and right before the CPI release next month. Now that's going to be very interesting because that's December 10th, uh December 10th. We get the CPI release. uh sorry, it's actually this. The last one was November 10th. I'm sorry, it's December 13th, December 13th. Let me correct myself. so I believe that between now and December 13th, between this Fomc meeting in December 13th, we could actually have quite a bit of optimism for the market that we really haven't gotten following the CPI and PPI reports. So that means we could have an optimistic tomorrow. Markets are Closed Thursday an optimistic Black Friday and Cyber Monday week and we probably won't start seeing softness in the market in my opinion until about December 8th to 12th as we prepare for not only the CPI report, but also the Fomc meeting for December See, markets do not like uncertainty and what we've noticed for really the past year is markets tend to sell down right before CPI meetings or releases and right before the FED meetings. So in my opinion, you potentially and this is the kind of stuff that we're going to be doing a lot of I think in the trading challenge is we'll be playing some options uh, probably selling calls, selling puts depending on volatility, uh charts and such, which we'll be doing together in the stocks and psychology. MoneyGram uh starting next Monday I Believe the week of the 12th through the 16th is going to be very, very tenuous. You probably have very soft inflows the 8th through the 12th as we wait for that CPI report and then of course the FED meeting. But between now where we're expecting tomorrow, a a actually quite bullish and dovish Fomc meeting report uh, and probably the seventh to 8th actually have a little bear Market rally for the next couple weeks depending on what's set in this Flomc report. so I would prepare for that I would prepare for a potential bear Market rally over the next two weeks. It might not come to fruition, but the reason I would prepare for it is I would start thinking to yourself if it's a bear Market rally what do you want to do? Do you want to use that as an opportunity to get out of margin to sell some Shock that you've over concentrated into? Does it mean potentially you want to buy the dip today in anticipation of that? Those are things that you want to think of yourself. Obviously, even though I'm a licensed financial advisor I can't give you personalized Financial Advice: Uh, but I think the biggest broad-based Financial suggestion for everyone is get out of margin anyway. that's what to prepare for for tomorrow. I'm optimistic about it I'd like to dye my hair green but we did a vote in the course member uh section and it was close. but it was like 45 55 to not dye my hair green. So anyway I did run a poll and we will respect that. so cheers to that. Hopefully you joined being a course member. If you have questions about custom bundling, send me an email on Kevin.com We'll see in the next one. Goodbye.