Hey everyone Me: Kevin Here we need to discuss Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve The meeting is in a few hours. By the time you're watching this, it could be in a few minutes, right your clock or the time down 11:00 A.m. Pacific Time that's 2: P.m. Eastern time.

Okay, calculated if you're different time zone. What do we need to pay attention to this, my friends? This right here. This is the summary of economic projections from September. We are going to get a new one right now.

Markets believe markets are convinced that Jerome Powell is just going to tell us. Look, we're going to be down at Dependent. We're going to punt this meeting. We're not going to say anything.

This is why we have to parse the meeting. This is why we have to pay attention to the meeting because there are two things that are going to happen. Number one, right at 11, we're going to get the sumary of economic projections. Number Two: We're going to get Drone Pow's commentary on it.

Usually, Drone Pow's commentary is very powerful because we could see numbers on the summary of economic projections which I'll give you my projections and then you get your own Pal's commentary in terms of which way he leans. So let's take a look at this. These are my projections. So first I think they're going to cut the change in Real GDP down a little bit from their 1.5% projection.

The reason I believe that is Drone P Had two count of two chances to go all hockey docky, docky locky on us and he did not choose to go hockey doy on us. Instead, he chose to stay neutral which is oh, you know, well we may raise rates if we need to and no real Hawking even though Financial conditions are loosening in addition to that, well, as a result of that, rather, I should say I think drum Powell is starting to suspect along with the FED that GDP might start trending weaker than it has been if you look at the Atlanta fed now real GDP indicator which we get our next read on that tomorrow where the current read is about 1.2% GDP read for Q4 I Actually think we're going to see that revision to 1.2% for the entire 2024 forecast, so that's going to mean weaker GDP That could be bad for some stocks in the short term because it does potentially mean weaker earnings. So 1.2 on GDP I Don't want to see a handle under one that would be bad for the stock market I Do think we're going to see a bias up on the unemployment rate? Uh, probably move that up from 4.1 to maybe 4.2 or 4.3 If they goes any higher than that, it would be problematic. So any kind of move like four and a half back to the June projections.

We don't want to see Pce inflation. I Actually think they're going to take a tenth off of the projections on both of these. Remember, these are average projections of all of the different voting board members. So uh, it's not like it's coordinated.

or maybe it is and they just tell us that it's not then we since after all, it is a messaging tool. Remember, Drone Po calls the summary of economic projections a snapshot in time and a messaging tool at that time. And if it's a messaging tool and you control the sheet, you know you could theoretically be like, hey man, the average is coming out to five Bard I need you to come in a little lower so this average comes in at 49? You got it. Oh wow, I've changed my opinion.

You wouldn't be surprised. But anyway, I think we're going to go for a 4.9 on the FED funds rate that will signal one to two cuts. Uh, remember that the current rate that we have is 5.375 That's the midpoint of the lower of the upper bound. And so if you take 5.375 minus .5 you get 4.87 5, Which basically rounds up to 4.9 That would mean the FED is pricing in two cuts for next year.

Markets are pricing in four. Last week markets were pricing in five, so obviously anything less than 49 would be bullish. Mostly because the FED nobody really thinks the Fed's going to go super doish here. If we get a doish Fed it's going to kind of be like you're either really convinced on inflation or you're starting to panic.

Okay, then obviously we've got to parse what Jome Powell says I Don't think we're going to hear anything on opportunistic disinflation I Thought of an analogy I Kind of think of opportunistic disinflation as kind of like, uh, opportunistic weight loss. It's kind of like let's say you're trying to lose weight. Uh, and then then you know you're working hard and it kind of feels sticky. like your weight's stuck.

it's stuck and then it moves down a little bit and it's sticky, sticky, sticky and it moves down like this. opportunistic weight loss is like because I feel slightly under the weather right now. You you get sick or like you have salmonella or the stomach flu or something like that and then you just don't feel like eating cuz you can't keep anything in anyway and then your weight like plummets. Opportunistic weight loss.

Now just don't add so uh, that that is what the Federal Reserve basically used as an inflation policy since uh, the early 1980s. Uh, and the thesis, of course was that we could kind of move with the market Cycles Uh, quick note: uh I Hope to get my house HCK Update Video out today with probably another I Want to get two out this week? so stay tuned for that that it's done editing I Want to add some commentary to that? so I'm really excited about that, so stay tuned for that. We're killing it. We're doing really, really well.

The wedge deals are going, the construction teams going, everything's firing, so it's very good. It's still startup though, so obviously it's you know? I'm I'm like with sandpaper every day. Like what? Make sure that's like that. Make sure that's like that.

You know, trying to like finish the edges. It's good. Like the cybertruck edges. Oh uh.

anyway. I I I don't I Wouldn't be surprised for markets to be very volatile between now and after the press conference since we really need to digest what's going on. And then of course we have a flash sale going on today and tomorrow for the brand new gold courses. We've got a bunch of new lectures coming out at the end of the month as well.

We'll touch a little bit deeper on some of the stock, fundamental analysis and some of the other recommendations that you had specifically for. Real Estate A lot of interest in real estate those new verse Pro courses so check those out at Meetkevin.com A lot of them already live. Appreciate you all for being here. Good luck today! We'll see you soon.

Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We we'll a little advertising in See Go Congratulations man you have done so much People love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber Meet Kevin always great to get your take.