Hey folks, remember: the price of the programs linked down below goes up on october 29th, check those out for programs on building your wealth and alerts. When i sell or buy option stocks or crypto hey everyone meet kevin here i encourage watching this video before tesla earnings. Let's get right into some of the notes that i have for tesla expectations for tesla what the heck you should be expecting and what might happen here. We go jeffrey's upgraded tesla just a few days ago to 950 dollars per share from 850.

They see a strong capacity ramp up and a demand ramp up. This is good bank of america. Upgraded tesla from 800 to 900 kathy wood maintains that her 2025 target for tesla is three thousand dollars per share, and that is her base case. Not even her bull case, credit suisse, reiterated tesla at neutral, saying that there are three themes: playing into focus for tesla number, one: the build out of berlin, the upside in gross margin and sourcing dynamics, which generally means how they build out their supply chains.

Where they're getting their sources from and the more efficient, they are essentially that contributes to margin and, of course, berlin is an entirely new region for them. Uh. Despite the fact that they're already shipping cars from china to europe to sell vehicles in europe, uh giga, berlin, i think, will be huge because i've personally always believed that europeans and i could be wrong, but i think europeans want european cars. I know that's like a very like culturalist, if that's a word, but i'm just gon na like move on from that anyway.

Okay, here are the expectations. Adjusted eps for tesla is expected to come in at 1.5 1.585. That is about uh. That has been revised up by analysts 9.11 in the last four weeks now.

This is really important because, when tesla came out with delivery numbers at the beginning of october for q3, with a big beat, a lot of analysts came out with upward revisions, which means the stock ran on expectations that earnings would beat. So we are expecting earnings to beat based on what tesla told us. This is why analysts are already revising up. Remember.

The stock market is trying to consolidate as much information as it can as quickly as possible. So that way you could get in and make money as quickly as possible. That's at least the theory. There were 10 upward revisions and only one down revision for adjusted eps last quarter.

Remember the estimate for tesla was 0.974 and eps came in with a huge beat at 1.45 and the stock fell now. Obviously, recently it's gone up, but it was only it's only running up here. In anticipation of earnings and in anticipation of deliveries, we came out of the uncertainty of september, especially a lot of the uncertainties around china and now we're kind of moving into more positive territory. Although there's going to be anxiety going into earnings today, gap eps expectation is 1.161.

I'd write these down: okay, adjusted eps 1.58 adjust or gap eps 1.16 revenue expectation 13.7 billion. This has been revised up about 4.6 percent 11 upward revisions in the last four weeks. The last earnings estimate by the way was 11.36 billion and we beat that with 11.95 billion, that's pretty big. Now, honestly, we've had about a 19.7 beat on vehicle deliveries, so in q3 we beat vehicle delivery expectations by roughly 20 right now.

Analysts only expect revenue to go up about. Let's see here, one second 11.95, we're going to go to 13.7. Analysts are only expecting earnings to go up about 14.6 percent, even though we beat on deliveries by 19.7. So there's about a five percent burn that analysts are including here, because they think supply chains are going to hurt margins to the downside.

Analysts actually think we're going to see margin go down, so a really really big catalyst for tesla stock today is, can elon musk deliver not only more vehicles, but also on a supply crisis with higher bottom line, profit to tesla, more margin and see right now, analysts Have a net revenue of tesla or for tesla estimated at 1.797 billion - that's revised up 11.2 percent in the last four weeks, but again this could be beaten as long as those margin numbers come in strong now the announcement does come this afternoon now, right after i Will be covering this live so make sure to come to the channel live. We do expect the average price of cars to potentially go up, though some analysts expect it to go down. I personally think it's going to go up because in q2 we only delivered 1898 model uh model s's and model x's. Now we're going to be delivering or we did deliver 9275 model s's and x's.

So that's 8. 000, more cars at let's say 130 000 in revenue. Each could even be more that's just over a billion dollars of additional revenue just having these s's and x's. Personally, i think this could set tesla up for a really nice beat on margin and since analysts are kind of expecting margin to go down a little bit because the supply chain crises having a beat thanks to s and x, pushing margin up could be pretty impressive.

Uh, i'm excited by that see right now. If you took about 232 000 vehicles, the threes and y's times 49 000 average selling price you get to about 11.36 billion in revenue. This is this, is you know roughly uh, just the threes and y's? If you add a billion dollars for the s's and x's - and i did this math uh - i'm just i'm kind of speeding through this a little bit and you use 130k average. You add in that about a billion dollars now you're at about 12.368 billion in revenue, and if you divide that by the deliveries we had, we should be seeing the average price per car go from about 49k to like 51 300 uh, specifically, i wrote down 51 319., so we'll see uh this that's about 2 000, more two thousand dollars more per every car tesla sells just because they're selling richie cars like the s x, so the s x really creates the bottom line, boost and margin for the entire freaking company.

Those s's and x's those plaids encourage all your friends to get them, but remember what i say: don't buy tesla, buy tsla all right well by the way, we're killing it in china. It's worth noting that chinese cars have a much higher margin than those made in europe. Tesla delivered 74 000 cars in china up 20 percent. Uh tesla is expecting a movement of 4.3 after earnings.

Average movement after earnings historically has been about 5.7 up or down. Most of the time it's now so far we have uh here's. Some analysts reporting that there's little evidence of oems closing the gap to catch up to tesla's lead. I did test drive full self-driving and i filmed it.

I got to really post the video. I don't know, maybe tomorrow i'll post, a video uh, it's kind of as expected - it's not mind-blowing yet uh. But then again i've been with my version of self-driving since uh 2017 and i've seen it evolve. So i'm probably a little harder to impress.

There are some areas where i'm like. Okay, i know this car is going to fail trying to do this. It's just not going to work, which is fine. That was expected.

There are some other areas where the car was just stupid, like it'd go through a four-way. Stop and then stop in the middle of the four-way intersection, and then i just i didn't even move it. I'm just like. When are you gon na recover stay tuned for that video, the nh tsa question tesla and why it didn't recall the autopilot software on wednesday in response uh.

This was in response to a recent over-the-air update from tesla, which improves tesla's vehicle ability to identify parked emergency vehicles, and the nh tsa has been investigating crashes of teslas into emergency vehicles and now wants to know if this was actually a stealth recall this software update Honestly, it sounds like the federal government has has a thing for um tesla. I i don't get it it's it's very annoying. It's probably unions and union appointments and things like that and i'm not trying to bag on unions. Okay, i think unions have their place uh.

You know but uh hey whatever so, okay here, how do we play tesla now? Well, i personally believe very carefully. I trimmed a little bit of my exposure to tesla this morning uh, so i sold a little bit of tesla right at market open, which is perfect, because i set a limit order right here and it instantly executed, which was great because we dipped and now we're Kind of right back there sold a little bit of tesla uh. This was really because i'm in margin, if i was not in margin, i would not be selling tesla, but i sold a tiny little bit of tesla. I also closed some call options that i had on tesla.

I still have call options. I still have a boatload of shares, so i really just probably went from like tesla, let's say at 100 to tesla like 95 right, so not like a massive change here. Just using that five percent to kind of reduce some margin, because i don't like going into earnings with margin i'd, rather, if tesla skyrockets potentially sell a little bit more to pay off the rest of the margin uh and if tesla falls now use the fact that I paid off some margin to maybe sell some puts or buy some shares back. So that's my strategy.

I kind of expect tesla to fall unless we get an insane margin beat, which we might that's, where it's gon na be margin, because the analysts aren't as optimistic and i think it could happen because of those s's and x's. So i'm bullish, but i'm cautious. So i'm cautiously bullish. Thank you so much for watching this video.

By the way, if you, like my perspective, check out my programs link down below on building your wealth with the psychology of money, fundamental analysis, technical analysis options, you get all my buy trade alerts, everything linked down below and get into that program before october 29th, because That's when the price goes up thanks so much for watching and we'll see you next one. You.