jobs data was a complete disaster or was it let's talk remember coupon code expires tonight we have the jobs data coming out in about 40 seconds which is the perfect opportunity for me to mention that today is the final expiration the final final expiration of the coupon code we're changing all of the marketing this weekend uh if you're looking for the cheapest way to get lifetime access to all of the live streams today is the day to upgrade to the elite Hustlers course it is the most inexpensive at the moment limited time and it gets you all the live stream accesses so if your course member you could bundle up as well email us if you need a custom bundle at Kevin B kevin.com and if you're not a member yet it's the easiest way in to get lifetime access it beats paying monthly so do so before 11 59 Pacific time tonight all of this will be changed this weekend here we go jobs data on deck and it is uh unemployment rate 3.4 oh my what the hell 517 change in non-farm payroll 517 000 average hourly earnings coming in at point three percent it's a match on the month over month but year over year comes in at 4.4 slightly hot how the hell did we add 517 000 jobs the unemployment rate went down it was supposed to take up point one percent it went down to 3.4 percent what the hell is happening this is absolute Insanity 517 000 jobs I'm not sure if this is like a massive seasonal adjustment or if I can't trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics at all I mean maybe that was my first mistake is suggesting that I there was even remotely hope that you could trust them what the hell 517 000 jobs this is insane uh I mean unless there's a reason for this like a disparity between households and the establishment survey this is absolutely nuts and this could potentially be just what we need for the market to plummet today this is terrible news what the hell is going on here total non-farm payroll Rose by 517 000 jobs in January the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4 percent uh jobs growth was wide spread widespread jobs growth led by Leisure and Hospitality professional and business services Health Care employment also increased in government partially reflecting a return of workers from strikes uh the household data was a little it was both the unemployment rate of 3.4 the number of unemployed person 5.7 million little changed little net movement uh this is quite uh bizarre here see the note at the end of this news release for tables about information about the annual production population adjustments to the household survey among major worker groups the unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for adult men women 3.1 percent teenagers uh 10.3 Okay blah blah blah blah in January participation rate was 62.4 percent and the employment to population rate was 60 uh not changed these were unchanged okay fine uh let's see here number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons sitting at 4.1 million little change not in labor force was 5.3 million okay A little changed among those not in the labor force who wanted a job was 1.4 million changed little in January this is this is the strongest jobs report by the way since July treasury yields are shooting up right now the stock market's going down you have a revision of more jobs in the prior months uh added a 71 000 jobs in the prior two months the uh year-over-year number missed this is absolutely insane everything's going red right now this was my warning yesterday was all it was going to take was a Miss on the jobs report and you were going to have a have a poopsie doopsy this is a massive Miss of 320 000 is the Miss on this payroll number this is insane non-farm payroll uh 517 000 compared with an average monthly gain of 401 000 Leisure and Hospitality added 128 000 jobs in January the ADP report missed by the way remember that how are they counting this is this multi-job counting again this is insane professional business services grew by uh 82 000 government by seventy four thousand Healthcare by 58 000 growth in ambulatory Health Care Services retail trade grew by 30 000 in January construction added 25 000 jobs transportation and warehousing added 23 000 social assistance added twenty one thousand uh let's see average hourly earnings again we saw the point three percent and the point and the 4.4 year over year the 0.3 is stable but the point 4.4 was one tenth higher than expected uh here we have the upward versions of thirty four thousand and thirty seven thousand that's not great uh in accordance uh with annual practices what is this here the basis for industry classifications okay revisions fine total non-farm payroll this is insane okay let's look at the actual chart here because I I don't know something seems off here let's listen for a moment to CNBC it is now maybe it's it's hard hard to read right the second in the futures well first of our government mentioned how pathetic it was that I was the over I think and I was only half of the number so um I I don't know if there's some statistical quirk in all of this and I yeah I can tell you where the job growth was one place for sure it was was in Leisure and Hospitality we've seen this in Industry struggling to get back to the pre-pandemic level up 128 000. government jobs also up strongly 74 000 I'm not sure about the source of that take me a second on the B1 table here everybody's favorite table it looks like you know uh state government education that was back big up thirty four thousand big part of that not on the federal side more on the local uh and State Side you had construction jobs of 25 000 manufacturing of 19. retail up 30. if you're hearing a trend here I can tell you what that trend is the trend is that the job growth was was broad-based it was not in a single um uh industry or single sector there were revisions revisions to the upside of nov number of 34 000 and Rick is Right new benchmarks on the uh for the year ending in March up 568 000.

so the job market was much stronger um you also lost one of the linchpins of those who thought the job market was slowing because the work week ticked up to 34.7 that was everybody said oh the work week's coming down that's a sign of of the weekending job market that is gone you know this is like this is insane but uh look at this for a moment this right here is the household survey okay remember the household survey is the survey that counts people who have a job the payrolls The Establishment survey the headline survey counts payrolls so you can get double counted in a payroll but you can't get double counted in in the household data but look at the household data the civilian labor force increased uh from about 439 000 between November and December and 866 000 between December and January and the number of those employed grew about seven hundred thousand between November and December and grew about another 700 000 between December and January so they are actually suggesting 1.4 million more jobs here in the household survey catching up to the establishment survey this is crazy because initially there was this huge disparity between the payroll survey and the establishment survey and there's this huge Miss between the two now they're starting to catch up on the household number uh this is quite strange Tesla was positive before this data came out it has now gone negative about a quarter of a percent uh Apple's down about 1.71 Google's down about four you've got the NASDAQ on this news dropping about 1.75 and you got the S P 500 down about one percent at least in the pre-market on this news now this could in okay in the weird way I like this is this is a terrible report in terms of like actually suggesting that the labor market is softening but we need to like put our Federal Reserve hat on for a moment which basically is a tinfoil hat so let's let's consider for a moment what this potentially means for the Federal Reserve okay in in the weirdest way I want you to think about it's not actually that weird but I want you to think about what did your own Paul say what did Jerome Powell say he said he was pleasantly surprised and delighted that inflation was plummeting without destroying jobs and he actually hoped that could continue because it's a sign of a soft Landing okay all right so the concern is a wage price spiral right concern wage price spiral well average hourly earnings stayed at point three percent which is an annualized rate of 3.6 percent of an increase right so it we didn't get a miss here we did like to the downside it didn't come in softer than expected year over year did come in a tiny little bit more than expected at 4.4 we were expecting 4.3 that's fine uh that's not too terribly different from what we had in fact let me see here 4.4 4.4 is still a reduction from 4.6 in the last report right uh so okay actually sorry the revision to that just came in the last report was actually five percent holy crap that was just revised to five percent that literally just flashed on my screen as I said that uh okay so this is actually really interesting okay this like initially this seems terrible initially this is like oh my God uh where's Paul volcker right but Jerome Powell told us it was actually a great thing that the risk of a wage price spiral was declining and that is actually reiterated by this report year over year wage inflation went from five percent to 4.4 percent on top of that we had the month over month hourly earnings stay stable at 3.6 now keep in mind three point six percent is still higher than two percent but when you factor in fate or flexible average inflation targeting it's actually not potentially that terrible like that's okay as long as inflation continues to come down this could actually in a weird way be good news because remember what people are saying about the stock market and no it's not your reminder that today the coupon code expires link down below February 3rd 11 59 PM last coupon code we're getting away with coupon code no more coupon codes uh even though I have been getting a lot of comments from you by the way people are like Kevin first of all we want to thank you for not having those annoying sponsors on the channel and second of all thank you for at least getting rid of the coupon it's just so we don't have to hear about it anymore uh there'll be something else but it'll be a lot more limited uh in the future and the best price is still going to be today guarantee uh so anyway in a weird way this could actually be good news because remember what we think about the stock market right what do we think about the stock market well you have two phases there are two phases of a crash phase one is uh multiple compression so multiple compression is basically what you're willing to pay for a stock coming down so if you're willing to pay 10 times earnings if it goes down to five times earnings the stock goes down 50 percent multiple compression very simple okay phase two is EPS declines now EPS declines are driven by less spending because people are getting fired or laid off or whatever right I think a layoff is just a nice way of saying fired someone says you're laid off don't kid yourself you got fired uh anyway you were not valuable enough for the company uh and that's depressing and I think that's why they say layoff so people don't get too depressed but that's just the way it is uh anyway so phase two is EPS declines and yesterday the biggest bear of all actually no Michael burry is like the biggest bear of all and he deleted his Twitter account after he said sell and then markets rallied this guy macro elf whom I've kind of I don't want to say complained about but I challenge I've been challenging some of his charts okay I've been challenging some of his data I actually tweeted him I never got a reply it's fine but I transparently tweeted Adam hey dude I'm trying to replicate your bear chart here and I I'm I'm concerned y'all are trying to manipulate data let me just remind you of that really quick I tweeted the following are the Bears starting to manipulate data my team and I were not able to replicate the bearish information presented in this chart in other words he's trying to say that like a a a debt draws for spending or plummeting but he pulled inflation off of this chart that's what we believe that's the only way he was able to do this which you can't do that you don't take a ratio of credit impulse and take inflation off of that you can inflation adjust both of the inputs long story short you can inflation Just Adjust off of a ratio that's like 0.25 minus 0.25 and changing like that because you end up getting this funky chart that doesn't make sense but we still can't replicate his chart uh because credit impulse data is not showing things as bad as his and again the only way we were able to replicate it was was by pulling inflation off the way he does which again you don't do off of a ratio long story short we weren't able to replicate this guy's bearish charts okay so this guy's basically a bear every single day because he sells a newsletter because he has to be a bear every day and that's okay I'm okay with you selling insight and perspective I actually think that's great that's a fine thing but I purposely hearted this so I could come back to it and find it just because I heard something doesn't mean I actually like it but that's okay and I support other perspectives that's why I'm bringing him up I'm not at macaroth I'll have a beer with them you know I just have I just have questions that's all okay just ask questions and so he says the first Innings of a recession always look like a soft Landing the labor market weekends not enough to generate job losses earnings decline but not negative year over year inflation drops but not yet in a recessionary manner not yet in a recession until it is and he basically goes into this argument that eventually he's got this like 13 thing thread over here where he's like look eventually uh people are going to get laid off the jobs Market is going to turn into a complete disaster in crisis and when it does earnings are going to go down for companies and then you're going to have your real recession okay that's a very fair rational explanation totally fair but we have to understand a few things okay number one number one guy number one number one most important thing is Jerome powie wowie powie draw powie just made it very clear that he's actually happy about a strong labor market as long as as long as there's no wage price spiral and guess what we have things that tell us there's no wage price spiral a the FED sees a lower risk of a wage price spiral it could still pop up and if you see it it's two ladies says but guess what else we see we see that companies like Chipotle are finding it easier to hire and lowest turnover ever at Chipotle this is great now they are hiring like crazy by the way hiring like crazy why because they're being a smart business they're looking at the recession as an opportunity to expand an opportunity to invest and end up taking more market share in the future it's a smart company there's a reason their stock trades the way it does is there a smart business with high margins they know how to sell listen if somebody told you you would get rich and become a billionaire off selling rice and beans you'd be like you're smoking crack but guess what that's exactly what Chipotle did they became billionaires off of selling rice and beans they are damn good rice and beans quite wild anyway so as long as there's no wage by spiral right that's important so what did we get in terms of data fed sees lower risk of wage price spiral Chipotle finds it's easier to hire we're getting industrial layoffs uh like 3M and DOW okay that's actually usually a sign of kind of a bottom and obviously we're getting Tech layoffs uh on top of that what are you getting well you're getting weaker uh than expected uh weaker than expected wage growth via the employment cost index now we did we did get a higher higher uh jolts report which means more job openings and guess what Jerome Powell says eh it's an indicator in other words Jerome Powell he's being super blunt here he's happy that we can grow jobs and see inflation plummet because it basically means no recession this is the most predicted recession of all time and what a middle finger it would be to every Economist when it doesn't happen this is actually in a weird way kind of good news it's kind of crazy uh but anyway uh so so you've got you've got Jerome Powell uh but what else do you have remember what you don't have if you have labor market growth if you have labor market growth what do you not have potentially those EPS declines you actually have people who have more money who get to go out there and buy stuff again and pretty much every earnings call that I'm reading in this earnings season is talking about how what the second half of the year is going to be glorious kind of believe it uh Gary black just tweeted what recession yeah no kidding somebody else uh replies I don't know if he's a subscriber of mine or a subscriber of Gary's I know I only have like 10 subscribers on Twitter those are people who actually like pay to follow your super chats or whatever I don't send any super chats so thank you to the 10 people who are but anyway so probably a subscriber gares but anyway but this allows the FED to be more aggressive not necessarily what I just broke down tells you that this is actually very characteristic of potentially a recession that does not happen now don't get me wrong the stock market's probably gonna freak out today okay probably not the best thing in the short term for the stock market but long term this is actually pretty good uh now what's also very interesting is it buys me some more time to buy real estate yes I kid you not this strong jobs data gives me more time to buy the dip on real estate why well it's obvious treasury yields just popped look at this we went from being below 3.4 percent to being above 3.5 percent in a minute an instant increase in fact I'd love to see the chart because it'll be really entertaining to just see that instant pop-up if we go to let's go to like the five day over here we should see the uh the instant explosion uh in this oh I screwed up the chart I mean whatever you get it you get the point uh it's not even charted stupid CNBC CNBC you're sucking right now the chart doesn't even show the three five yet what a rip-off I'm trying to show off something cool and they ruin it damn it seems anyway sorry I'm sorry I'm too angry this morning uh but Zero Hedge is now tweeting that Michael burry has officially reactivated his Twitter account oh these guys are hilarious uh anyway look yes short term let me let me let me summarize this like we're five okay short term bad buy the dip opportunity though and and I know I say that a lot but this is actually characteristic of a soft landing and if you actually listen to what Jerome Powell says this is actually potentially a good thing now again I know that sounds crazy because we've been waiting for bad data but then when we get these terrible retail sales numbers and I'm like hey terrible retail sales numbers everybody's like Gavin you're pushing us into a recession everything's so terrible now the numbers are coming in good people like we need a terrible economy it's like you always get the opposite comments anyway no matter what you say you know it's just like opposite day in comments world uh so so I I really limit my paying attention to comments uh but I do pay attention to y'all like Nighthawk here who's saying Jerome Palace says F your puts uh but Andrew I think you're right on with this idea about potentially another by the dip opportunity I was actually a little frustrated because I've still got like 14 cash uh that I'm wanting to deploy and I'm like dang it the numbers are starting to run away like give me some bad news here but honestly I don't think it's gonna last long because I I kind of think the Market's gonna look at this and go wait a minute no inflation yet jobs doing well that sounds like a good normal economy to me two sectors that underscore strength in hiring in the economy right now manufacturing and construction gold fell below 1900 an ounce gold is your recession indicator right see that's the other thing you look at recession indicators and now what's happening now all of a sudden you're getting a plummet in gold look at this this is iau which is uh not direct ownership of gold but it's the easiest ownership of gold in my opinion uh I'm not pitching you gold okay I'm not I'm not showing you gold I promise I'm just saying if if I was going to trade gold which I've traded gold uh many times if I was going to trade gold I would probably just use iau because I can trade it I don't have to own the gold I don't have to take delivery the gold I don't have to store the gold uh I don't have enough guns to to store gold maybe I don't even have any who knows uh anyway so so that's the Gold's dropping on this let me see what else is going on in the world of Wall Street over here prime age uh participation rate is moving up look more people getting jobs is actually good for the economy right very good the more people have jobs the more people have money and the more people have money it's more people who could buy the brilliant courses on building your wealth with content that you can't find anywhere on the internet because it's awesome fresh perspective on actually becoming a millionaire in those programs and um yeah we need people having money so they can invest in themselves make the smart decisions year over year we did have that average hourly earnings increase of 4.4 percent and I understand that 4.4 percent year over year is slightly higher than what we were expecting but it's worth putting that into perspective I'm a big fan of putting things into perspective okay so let's go ahead and show you the chart of what that actually looks like there you go there's your earnings growth yes it year over year it's still at 4.4 annualized it's still at a 3.6 percent rate but look it's plummeting you know we just we just had the last one coming at five percent revised up to five percent uh and so we just got a nice little plummet here so let's fingers crossed that keeps going I'm telling you anything that's inflationary is going to be bad anything that suggests maybe we're not actually going into recession should actually be good however this 3.4 unemployment rate is insane this is the lowest unemployment rate we have seen since 1969. and remember even the household survey showed a massive jump in uh in in earnings uh or uh in job gains by the way so this is the strongest jobs report since July it's the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. I don't even know that what is that like 50 something years ago that's insane so uh look this is an incredible report this is a bull market report that's what this is this is going back to a bull market era of of the you know 2021 era almost where we were gaining like you know on average 500k jobs for for probably the entire year uh again this is going to lead to some temporary pain it's actually leading Nordstrom to go up even more from 25 to 28 probably again because people are going to have more money and they got to get those coupons in over at Nordstrom indices not happy though because the nasdaq's down about two percent and it spies down about one percent Tesla is only down about 0.8 right now Apple's only down about 1.8 after those earnings and remember this is on the back of Craig crazy gains yesterday you know both of those were up over three percent yesterday so so we're really just kind of back to yesterday now this is kind of odd one that is plummeting is Amazon now Amazon did have a seven percent day yesterday but it's up it's down six percent in the pre-market right now uh you are also interestingly seeing a decline on some of those more risk-based stocks like a firm down about six percent in the pre-market kind of interesting kind of interesting uh about to go watch the real estate course in a minute says Kyler Kyler love you by the way always remember if there's anything you need me to add although there's a lot of content so I actually don't get that many requests for the ad stuff hit me up in Discord just tag me hey man can we add something on this I generally have my black screen operating every day my black screen Studio it's at a different location than here and uh I'm a big fan of recording on that black screen it's great for lectures uh not so great for live streams like this uh anyway that's the jobs report today for you and wow I mean I'm I'm gonna take my my usual optimistic by itself and say this is great but then again I recognize my own biases and so you know I mean I just I don't know how you can see this is bad the uh the only way I think the FED gets angry here is if the inflationary numbers uh start going bad again so I don't know we'll see my thoughts on jobs.