Hey everyone kevin here: the stock market just flipped and we've got to talk about it. So we've got a lot of big stories here. First, we got to look at the consumer. We've got reports from jp morgan delta, lululemon and bed bath and beyond.

I'm going to break down the most important pieces of these reports that i went through. Then we're going to talk about rate hikes by central banks and an update from our central bank and then we're going to have some thoughts on the market towards the end. Now do keep in mind this video is brought to you by ftx, use the link down below and make sure you're using ftx when you're trading a crypto take advantage of that code. They have linked down below and use the trading indicators available to you via trading view built into ftx check them out.

Okay, folks, let's get into the data. So first, let's talk jp morgan. This is great news. Average deposits are up 13 percent year over year across the entire bank at two percent quarter over quarter.

If we look at just the consumers, average deposits are actually up 18 year over and four percent quarter over quarter, which means, even though we're going into this. This cycle of uh people, believing that individuals have spent all their money in q4 of 2021, and that's it now we're going to have less money available to spend the opposite is actually happening. People have more cash in q1 than they did in q4, at least according to jpm, which is by far one of the biggest banks that we have in the country. On top of this, though, we did see an 11 increase in credit card outstanding balances for consumers, so this is a little bit of an increase in the amount of debt that we're seeing consumers take on now when debt goes up, we do start wondering.

Is that a sign that individuals are a little bit more financially stretched to maintain spending or did people just get even more euphoric, spend more of the cash and use more debt to buy even more crap than they have previously? Both could be possible, but when we look at the next stat that we get from jpm, it's that combined credit and debit spending was up 21, this q1 compared to last q1 and 2021. That's pretty incredible! Now remember the beginning of last year we were still dealing with the original covet variant and we got delta later in like september and then obviously omicron this january. But the fact that we had omicron in this january and we still crushed the numbers from last q1 - very incredible - we were worried about comps, like a lot of folks, are worried about year over year comps for earning seasons. This is actually a really good indicator.

I like seeing this jamie dimon suggests that the first hundred basis points of rate hikes honestly won't really matter and won't so much affect economic growth. This is not something to be worried about. Obviously, there are clouds of war and uncertainty once we get to q3 and four, but for right now, pretty decent earnings report here from jpm now, obviously uh jp morgan's eps is not something that we've been talking about here, because this isn't so much a breakdown of Jpm's earnings they did actually miss slightly. They had a 42 decline in net income, which was actually expected because of pandemic comps, lower mortgage revenue, lower trading revenue and so on, uh, but they actually beat in some areas they weren't expecting to.

But again, this isn't so much so about evaluation for jpm. Personally, i'm not interested in investing in the banks, because i believe you've got this double-edged sword of as rates go up, less people end up taking out loans, which means less transaction revenue for the banks. Of course, interest rates are higher, so it's kind of like ah one's good one's bad and they've got to spend a lot of money on attracting talent. Morningstar thinks the fair value for jpm is about 152..

It's trading for about a 20 discount to that right now, but what i'm trying to extract from here is the consumer data. And what i'm seeing here is that people ramped up their spending in q1 and they have more cash and they're using more debt to keep spending now that either creates a debt bubble, or it's just really good for earnings coming forward. I'm optimistic about this. So then i looked at bed bath and beyond and now this is a company where their executive staff is telling us.

We underinvested in supply chains and no surprise now they're suffering they're, also a company that really had to transition from all stores pretty much to going online during the pandemic and now trying to figure this mix out. In fact, they're complaining that a lot of the people who are buying products online at bed, bath and beyond during the code pandemic, aren't actually converting into in-store customers. They do mention as well that their inventory stock is lower than usual and because their inventory stock is lower, they're losing in-store and online sales to other retailers. So this kind of also goes in the face of what you hear.

Kathy wood say, which is oh inventory's, going up. That's a sign that prices are going to come down. No companies want inventory to go up so that when a consumer wants to buy that product's available so that consumer doesn't go to another store but because bed, bath and beyond they themselves say it have underinvested in supply chains. They are not able to offset inflationary headwinds by raising pricing, in other words, they're literally telling us in their earnings, call yeah.

Consumers are spending, but we effed up and we can't really uh, basically not get hit by inflation. We're going to be eating it because of inflation, so we had a little bit of a bad report there from bed bath and beyond, partially not surprising, i kind of think the business is hitting in the direction of bankruptcy, though that could offend a lot of people, Because this has been a massive momentum stock, but this is just what i'm getting from their earnings call. This has nothing to do with momentum. Just regarding earnings that was not good.

Some of the stuff they said you could read the earnings, call it yourself and see it, but i don't know how much that really matters to the overall consumer, because then, when we go over to delta, when we sort of leave that kind of specific store, what Do we get well, we get international passenger revenue still down 25 from 19, once you when you combine international and domestic, but when you look at a domestic we're actually recovering pretty dang well, domestically they've got a hundred percent fill rate on the premium cabins. People are spending more for premium seats, they've got 70 percent of their corporate traffic, back which people thought after the pandemic, corporate travel would just be dead and they've already recouped 70 of them. They've got a 25 increase in their amex partnership fees for their co-branded credit card and spend on those amex cards is up 35 compared to 2019.. Now that's an insane statistic again, because it shows that people are still spending money like freaking, crazy, like there's no tomorrow.

If people are spending 35 more on those amex cards with uh with with delta now than they did in 2019 uh, it is really telling us that the spring break travel is booming. People are willing to spend more now, and people spend more later in the quarter. Not less people feared that once war broke out, that's it the consumer's going to start saving money, they're going to be fearful of recession. It ain't happening at jp morgan people got more money at jpmorgan.

People are spending more money at jp morgan people got more money at delta, they're spending more money at delta they're using their cards more than before. It's crazy now, regarding investing in delta, not the biggest fan personally they've got current assets of around 11.3 billion dollars and current liabilities of around 24 billion dollars. It's not a company that i'm interested, but i am using them as a tool to try to determine all right. Well, where do i want to position myself in terms of the consumer? Personally, i think it's actually very, very bullish in addition to what i heard from lulu, so lulu uh is delta and jp reported today.

Lulu reported about a week and a half ago, but i went through this and what's incredible is back to that inventory argument. They talked about growing 49, their inventory grew 49 from last year uh and they are air freighting in more inventory to make sure they have the products that individuals want in store. They say this actually carries quote minimal, markdown risk and positions them well to continue to fulfill orders for guest demand and that they com that they do plan to have some selective price increases over the year, but only on a smaller portion of their products. So to me, this a little bit reiterates two things: one that the inventory issue isn't the big problem.

Yet this price drop issue, a bigger issue - is which companies have pricing power and is that demand sticking around and lulu here is kind of saying yeah. We might be able to raise prices on a few things - maybe 10 of our product wears, but otherwise we're just trying to get the inventory in stock, so people can buy it, but not too many price increases included here, probably a good thing for inflation. This is also a company, though, that i expect is going to lose some purchasing power in the face of higher food and energy costs. Now then, we've got to talk a little bit about rates, so waller came out today on cnbc and talked about how we need to have sufficient hikes to get above neutral.

This did not phase the market at all. The market literally did not care. We did have a small little bit of a sell down into the close. That's usually called sort of your institutional selling down.

We ran beautifully off that 23.6. Waller spoke right around. I want to say 12, 20, 12, 30, and you can see the market just kind of kept moving until we got that institutional selling pressure or rebalancing of etfs or whatever, which usually those transactions go through at the beginning of the day or end of the day. But anyway, waller says and remember he's a hawk okay on the hawk to dovescale he's like way down there with like bullard on the hawks.

He he wants to hike okay. So this is no surprise. He says: look we should hike while the economy is strong. The economy is doing great right now.

We should not wait eight to nine months. We should just hike now uh rather than being late and then sarah eisen's like wait, but aren't you already late? You know and his response was well. No not really because we've been talking about raising rates since december, and interest rates have gone up just by us talking, which is kind of cool, because we're kind of doing work without actually doing anything other than moving our lips, which is entirely true. In fact, we're going to look at the tenure in just a moment right after i give a quick reminder that this video is of course brought to you by ftx, remember to check out the link to them in the description down below but go over here and Look at the 10-year jump onto bonds, uh! That's all right! We'll just go into here! Look at the bonds on the 10-year right here, we're sitting at that 2.7 level.

Right now we had a little bit of a tick down, and one of the reasons we had a little bit of a tick down in that tenure probably has to do with a lot of shorting of bonds going into that would be selling pressure right. So you get higher rates going into cpi data as a way for individuals to hedge, and then the data didn't come in. I would say as horribly as feared for cpi it came in better than expected, especially core ppi came in pretty ugly, but now it's like all right. Bad news behind us.

Is this peak inflation? Let's move on, so i do still think that that 10-year treasury yield curve is going to keep moving up and exactly what waller is saying is right, like they are moving the market up, they are tightening the market in terms of interest rates. Just by talking, which is pretty incredible, but waller does mention that they do prefer a 50 basis, point hike in may and maybe more 50 basis. Point hikes in june and july again he's one of the more hawkish people market shrugged this off didn't really care. Now, in the course member live stream this morning, which remember there is an expiring coupon code linked down below cyber kevin in the course member live stream.

This morning we talked about the correlation between the 10-year treasury yield and the nasdaq, and there really isn't one a lot of people like to say that, oh, when rates go up, tech falls. So if you think treasuries are going to go to three or three and a half percent, isn't tech gon na get hurt in that? No, the daily correlation between the ten year uh, which we measure via a beta right, a beta measurement, the 10-year correlation to the nasdaq, doesn't exist. It's very very, very limited. A lot of people like to believe that okay, well as rates go up, then we're going to see people's willingness to invest in risk or tech go down, not necessarily, i shouldn't even say not necessarily because when we look at the chart, when i pull up the Data - it's not there like the correlation, just isn't there so anyway.

I wanted to mention that, because that came up and, of course, remember uh, some folks in the comments do wonder like oh, how can i it sounds like you often have an expiring coupon code. It's true, there is often an expiring coupon code, but the price goes up over time. So it's like. Would you rather have the expiring coupon code here or here, there's inflation, so the prices are going up.

This is what it is. I guess that means i'm contributing to inflation, to some degree. Sorry about that, but anyway, the value that we keep adding to the programs keeps adding too so it pays for itself anyway uh now. We do also want to just touch on the bank of canada.

So the bank of canada, as expected just raised, they had their first 50 basis, point hike here and they're beginning their quantitative tightening. This is the biggest hike that they've had in about 50 years. They've now moved to one percent. Obviously, they fear that elevated inflation could become entrenched, just like our federal reserve, and they, of course cite similar things like supply chain disruptions, uh and and a strong economy right now they actually what i thought was very interesting.

They said that quote: growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in january and likely to pick up in the second quarter, because consumer spending is actually strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures, so, in other words, canada. Central bank is like uh: not only is the consumer still spending, but we actually think if you think q1 is going to be good, we think people are going to spend more money in q2. No all this is obviously pretty incredible uh. They they see a little bit of a slowdown coming to housing as well, and i don't want to sound like too like bullish here, because yeah look, inflation is high, we've got war going on, we've got a lot of uncertainties, we've got an election cycle coming up, But the reality is so far, spending is continuing.

People have more money to spend. People are willing to take on more debt to spend. At the same time, investment is continuing, and so it's really no surprise that, while the economy is still moving and even though you've got the fed complaining about higher yields, the market's moving up, why is the market moving up? Why did the nasdaq bounce off that 23.6? Almost perfectly this morning and give us about a two percent run today, you know why why did tesla run today from a low at their 50 retracement of 973 uh, almost all the way back up getting rejected off the 61.8 uh right there at about 10 26.? Why is this happening it's because of tina folks? What what are you really going to invest in right now? Are you just going to sit in cash sure maybe sit in cash to some degree to pay your taxes or when opportunities come up, but otherwise you're going to go into bonds and lose money? Probably not the best idea you're going to go into real estate at the same time as rates are going up sure. Maybe if you're long-term uh, you know hodler, but maybe you have an opportunity to wait for some other.

You know deals that could come up later in the year. Who knows that's more short-term timing, focus uh and then, of course, the other option is just go into stocks. You ride this crazy wave, but if you're going to get into stocks - and you want to be involved in this madness - well - i'd rather buy lower on the fibonacci retracements than higher. I mean go to the spy, for example, and look at the spies fib retracement over here, and what do you got well we're sitting right now between the 38 2 and the 50..

You know the qqq. Similarly, right now is sitting between the 23, 6 and 38.2. So why not take that opportunity to invest over here? It's gon na take a lot of pain, in my opinion, for us to get to that zero level and, if ppi this morning didn't do it, which we didn't expect would happen which we talked about in my video this morning. Uh, i don't know what will, because that ppi report was disgusting anyway, check out ftx by the link down below check out the courses on building your wealth and folks, we'll see in the next one.

Thanks goodbye.