0:00 - Introduction.
0:22 - The impact of wars on investment decisions.
0:47 - Tip #1: Diversifying investments.
1:08 - Tip #2: Defensive strategies in investment.
1:47 - Tip #3: Investing in Bonds.
2:24 - Tip #4: Increasing cash position.
2:42 - Tip #5: Investing in Commodities.
3:17 - What NOT to do in times of uncertainty.
3:23 - Point #1: Avoid being emotional.
3:34 - Point #2: Don't make drastic moves.
3:44 - Point #3: Do not try to time the market.
3:56 - Point #4: Stay informed.
4:14 - Point #5: Avoid being shortsighted.
4:43 - Impact of geopolitics on Discretionary consumer spending.
4:50 - Effect on Banks and finance.
4:57 - Tech underperforming in uncertain times.
5:00 - Manufacturing and logistics issues.
5:11 - Industries that might underperform.
5:23 - Situation in Middle East: Hamas and Israel.
6:20 - Risk of World War III in the Middle East.
Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the authorโs opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.
0:22 - The impact of wars on investment decisions.
0:47 - Tip #1: Diversifying investments.
1:08 - Tip #2: Defensive strategies in investment.
1:47 - Tip #3: Investing in Bonds.
2:24 - Tip #4: Increasing cash position.
2:42 - Tip #5: Investing in Commodities.
3:17 - What NOT to do in times of uncertainty.
3:23 - Point #1: Avoid being emotional.
3:34 - Point #2: Don't make drastic moves.
3:44 - Point #3: Do not try to time the market.
3:56 - Point #4: Stay informed.
4:14 - Point #5: Avoid being shortsighted.
4:43 - Impact of geopolitics on Discretionary consumer spending.
4:50 - Effect on Banks and finance.
4:57 - Tech underperforming in uncertain times.
5:00 - Manufacturing and logistics issues.
5:11 - Industries that might underperform.
5:23 - Situation in Middle East: Hamas and Israel.
6:20 - Risk of World War III in the Middle East.
Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the authorโs opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.
Okay, so when I was younger I wanted to be a ship captain I wanted to sail my boat in the open ocean. But then I realized it's very, very hard. You have to be aware of a lot of things. And when things get turbulent and there's a storm, it becomes 10 times harder.
You have to be aware of the ship of the elements. You have to plan strategize. There's a lot going on. This is exactly what investing is.
investing is. navigating a boat through turbulent. Waters. But what happens when you add two Wars one in Ukraine one the Middle East The geopolitics of it.
You get a tsunami. So how do you invest? How do you navigate a boat in a tsunami? Well, this is exactly what this video is for in this video. I'll explain how to invest in geopolitical uncertainty in turbulent times in a time of War. So number one: you have to diversify more more than ever.
Because you see sometimes when certain regions and countries go down and become more unstable, others go up a lot of the time. The global economy is a zero. Some game one goes down, one goes goes up. In times of uncertainty, you have to diversify so you can capture whatever goes up so you don't get stuck in the region that actually takes the brunt.
Now number two: Defensive strategies. and that kind of splits into two. One of them is obviously literal defensive strategies. Defense companies like ran like Loy Martin There's a whole list of Defense contractors in times of war that tend to outperform, but there's another side to it besides defense stocks.
There's also the defense strategies. So you know some stocks. Some Industries perform better when things get uncertain and people kind of get scared. And I have a list here.
Consumer Staples Healthcare Telecom People need their medicine. They will use their phones and they will use the basic necessities even if things get uncertain and really really bad. And that's where you kind of find a safe haven in times of trouble. Number three: The good old Bonds Bonds is the safe haven in bad times.
You want proof? Don't listen to me. Listen to Bill Amman Bill Blackman had a massive short on the long-term Bonds in the US He just covered it or closed. It doesn't really matter the reason he did that because now everybody's piling into bones. Why? Because it's a safe heaven.
You get kind of an insulation from all this risk with a very reasonable return. So Bonds is a good place to hide when things get rough. You know. Bill Amman says it.
It's not me. Number four: You have to increase your cash position. I Know that's scary in times of inflation. We know all this blah blah blah yada yada.
But when things get uncertain, you want to have a third. At least a third in cash for whatever happens, because sometimes cash can be your best friend. Definitely in times of uncertainty, Number five Commodities usually tend to go up in times of Crisis. You know the Food Supplies The energy supplies, the logistics. everything goes haywire and commodities become more expensive. It's just the way it is. agricultur. get hurt, you know, weed production in Ukraine and Russia We told you all about this for for months, right? So Commodities tend to be a nice safe haven in times of trouble.
and I'm not saying and I'm not. You know saying that you should make money off of people suffering from around the world I'm just saying you have a portfolio to manage and you have to adjust it accordingly so it fits better to what's going on geopolitically. everybody does this and you shouldn't feel bad about it now. I Will also tell you what not to do in times of uncertainty.
Number one is, do Not be emotional. It's a really, really bad idea when everybody else around you are emotional and running out like headless chickens. You stay focused, you stay the course. Number two: Do not make any huge moves like selling all your portfolio or going all in on one stock.
This isn't the right time in time of geopolitical uncertainty to make crazy moves like that. In fact, I would argue it's never a good time, but now it's even worse now. Number three: Do not try to time the market. People who do that in normal times get punished.
In times of geopolitical uncertainty, they get pulverized. Number four: you have to stay in form my guy. I Know it sucks watching the news and seeing all this horrific stuff coming out out of the Middle East and out of Ukraine But you have to stay informed because geopolitics matters. It influences to your portfolio influences the stock market.
You have to understand what's going on in the world, even if it's unpleasant to watch. Number Five is being shortsighted. You can't basically say oh my God the world is coming to an end. Oh, this is the end.
The world has been here for a long time. It was before we came here and when all of us die, it will still be here. Don't be shortsighted. Look at it from a longer perspective from kind of a more macro and of course a few stocks and categories where I don't recommend you put most of your money in because it's not a good time for it.
Discretionary consumer spending Obviously when times are bad and times are certain people are not buying Rolex watches and Banks and finance. Obviously you know banks give out loans and they Thrive when things are stable um, growth in Tech tends to underperform in times of uncertainty, especially Geopol uncertainty, Manufacturing gets bogged down because of supply chain issues, logistics companies, shipping companies like Mark or like Zim there's a lot of them. You can see what the stock has been doing because you know when things get kind of unstable, these types of Industries they tend to underperform now. I Do want to explain to you the importance of understanding what's going on right now in the Middle East in just one sentence and then I'm going to give you kind of a segue to something really cool. So right now, there's a really interesting situation going on in Ukraine. We've talked a lot about it I'm not going to go into it right now. At the same time, we have a very big crisis in the Middle, East, Israel and Hamas and Gaza All this stuff going on right now I Want to give you a quick explanation of one sentence what's going on right now? So Hamas struck Israel They basically went in and murdered a bunch of civilians. thousands of civilians.
Um, absolutely horrific crimes against humanity. There's a lot of theories who sent them and why they did that. Basically, they kind of Theory right now is that Iranians are behind it because they wanted to basically torpedo the impending peace deal between the Saudis and Israel by you know, letting Israel retaliate and doing Gaza what it's doing right now, basically causing the Saudis which are Sunni Arabs to basically distance from Israel because Gaza is also Sunni Arabs whether it worked or not I don't know. but currently we have hisbah Iran turkey and Russia literally sitting on the fence, potentially starting a new conflict with Israel and the US.
So this whole World War III is Brewing up in the Middle East and it will have a massive impact on your portfolio. If you want to understand better geopolitically what's going on, I have a video explaining exactly what's going on right now in Israel and a whole bunch of videos with full updates on my second Channel called the Tom Nash report. I'm going to put the video right here so you can go check it out right now. If you haven't yet subscribed to this channel, you can do it right here.
I'll see you in the next video.
Stock guys often say stuff like "people gotta buy groceries and pay their phone bills" but last I checked these stocks crash just as bad as everything else. Or did food and telecom stocks outperform everything during the last big downtimes?
those who were oppressed in Egypt by pharaoh have know become the oppressors in Gaza. pray for the innocent victims on both sides
I m the 1000th like
We stand for tge only democracy in the Middle East Israel. Palestinian citizens must be condemning Hamas for the misery they created
Hi Tom, When will you talk about Palantir next?
Bit late to invest in defence if you want to get in before the pump, get out as soon as there is a whiff of a cease fire as they plummet, bonds? but the interest rates out perform them at the moment, cash but which one, commodities……anything to do with energy storage is probably save but the rest is nothing special, use emotion to make money, gold is the very good one but it looks like BTC + ALT is up and coming! Staying informed is a must….but the most important is to look for blue chip for example: Tesla whos price is plummeting and buy in at say $150 if we are luckily enough to get to that price as it is a safe a bet you'll ever make even if it goes below $150 keep buying.. But any blue chip who prices are plummeting due to war sentiment or short sellers or any other FUD is a good bet..
The third one is on the way: phase one was Russia, phase two is Iran and itโs looney toons (Middle East proxy wars), phase three is Chinaโฆ. That one spooks me
Hey Tom, like that you time stamp your videos๐๐ป. Question, are you switching more towards trading than long term investing?
Very biased
Smart as always. Tyvm Tom
Thank you for your advice a year ago. You said that you were going to be 100%cash in 2023. Iโm earning 5 % guarantee and sleeping much better
Prepared to sell off my gold position.
Good video. I am convinced Powell will keep rates high. I have target prices on my shorts DRV and TMV. I am not following Ackman or Gross, which is spooky. Hopefully I reach my targets before the Feds change course.
good stuff
wars exist because humanity gave so much faith and belief in money! money money! people value money a ton more than they value human life. sadly the ones who control the world are the 1% wealthiest people in the world, who don't give a sh*t about people's lives
What path / way to you advise someone to become a full time trader?
You use a submarine.
any portfolio in any environment should be hedged with a few deep out-of-the-money puts against the $SPY. here's an example. I have a car insurance policy against my 8-year old car. the monthly premium is $80 per month. the car is worth $12K. do i get upset if I buy $80 worth of puts and the market rises? No. same with my car insurance. if I don't get in an accident, so what. if I do, I just covered a $12K car. i been laughing all the way to the bank watching my puts hit big. do i care if my longs came down – nope. next year they'll be back up and i'll be ahead of the rest of you.
I'm still team Death taxes Tesla ๐ ๐
I get all this Tom but I can predict that there will now be a host of YouTube channels coming out and saying all of these growth stocks that are going to be hit will be on a discount and generationally cheap to buy
Hi Tom… your opinion about
Crypto and gold ?
In this time ( recession, inflation, war)
Thank you !
Brilliant video sir !!! thank you for the breakdown !! ๐
Hey Tom whats your view on investing in ARAMCO in times like this?
๐๐๐๐๐๐ How much did a very desperate Janet Yellin pay him to say that? BAD ADVICE! Unsubscribing because anyone who would intentionally mislead their audience is๐ฉ