Well, we gotta compare the Bears to the Bulls once again in this video, we're going to cover JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and how they compare to Surprising Bull as well as some other comments so that we've received this morning. For example CEO of JP Morgan and Chase suggesting the banking crisis is really just beginning and very CERN like if certainly Capital group suggesting you haven't seen anything yet In terms of what's to come with the banking crisis in credit tightening, some say that Jamie Diamond and Barry Stern Lake's arguments are just simply messages to the Federal Reserve to slow down with their hiking. After all, the Bank of Australia did actually lead nations in pausing this morning. and the European Central Bank is making the argument that inflation expectations are surprisingly stable something the Bank of Australia actually used as evidence for or their rate pause cycle the European Central Bank suggesting now that for a second month in a row, Euro area inflation expectations fell dropping to 4.6 percent for the next 12 months from 4.9 percent in January and 2.4 for three years ahead down from 2.5 percent in January.

These expectations leading to thoughts that hey, maybe it would be fair for the Federal Reserve to turn around and pause. The problem though is in the meantime JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are not very happy. JP Morgan suggests that oils rally of about 20 percent absolutely puts upward pressure on inflation data. They suggest that any decline in yields is absolutely not a sign that the FED is about to Pivot and instead it's a sign that the recession probability has increased and JP Morgan expects a reversal in Risk sentiment and the market to retest last year's lows over the coming months.

Yes, that's literally what JP Morgan wrote. We expect a reversal, risk sentiment and the market retesting last year's lows across the coming months. That's not great, But before we hit that, did you know you could now use Buy Now, Pay Later to join the programs on building your wealth. Link down below.

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the next coupon expiration is dated below, and the market retesting last year's lows across the coming months. That's not great. Last week's survey by JP Moore Morgan indicated that 37 percent of individuals at JPMorgan plan to increase their Equity exposure, 76 percent plan to increase their bond duration portfolio in the near term. This is a sign that you've got a relatively bearish Equity positioning.

Still, this is similar to Bank of America's suggesting it's been 20 years. Uh, that uh or since it's been 20 years since we've had this low of equity allocation to markets cash positions at three years year highs. and Goldman Sachs wondering where are the Bulls when 85 percent of our customers are either bearish or neutral on adding funds to the market in this environment? So what we have JPMorgan go on to say is so far measures of credit and funding stress remain close to average levels. This I always think is very interesting as everybody keeps talking about credit tightening as to why we're definitely going to going into a recession.

But they say so far measures of credit funding stress remain close to average levels, with many of the early year growth boosts likely to fade. A credit shock that was initially modest should build materially over the coming quarters. So red flag here from JP Morgan They believe that stocks are set to weaken for the remainder of the entire year. Morgan Stanley gives some insight into this as well.

Morgan Stanley suggests will large caps continue to hold up the S P 500 and Morgan Stanley thinks no. Morgan Stanley is of the mindset that investors believe that the Fed's recent intervention into the banking crisis is a form of quantitative easing, but they are sorely missed mistaken. The the recent pop in the Fed's balance sheet is not like quantitative easing, where in quantitative easing you basically provide cash and stimulus checks to businesses and people via PPP loans or direct payments and those actually increase the velocity of money and the money is supplied. Whereas the quantitative easing that we generally just saw during the banking crisis is different, that is what we just saw in terms of easing was really not a way of changing.

Uh, the velocity of money at all. It was only a way of briefly boosting Bank Reserves And when those draw back down, we'll be right back to the quantitative tightening path along with now, the compounded impacts of a credit tightening cycle. This, in the eyes of Morgan Stanley is crazy. Morgan Stanley suggests that major indices appear to be shrugging off the real risks of an earnings recession coming, and this earnings recession and deceleration of growth could be a lot more painful than previously expected.

Here, they show that uh, big Tech big tech stocks have actually been buoying the performance of the S P 500 and they believe that Tech is actually more Pro cyclical and bottoms. Coincidentally, with the broader Market in Bear markets due to a beta of just over one in English Tech While it may be holding up indices now will fall just with the indices when earnings actually start coming in low, now, the question of earnings coming in low keeps continuously. Uh, dare I say going in circles. It seems like earnings estimates continue to get revised by companies, but the stock market doesn't really seem to care about those earnings revisions.

If anything, it's almost a suggestion that, hey, that's cool that y'all are revising earnings estimates down, but we're still going to allocate to stocks, so you're seeing a lot of that go on right now Where at the same time, we're seeing sort of the limitations of the banking crisis. For example: Bank of America Showing here, that issuance by the Fhlb, the federal Home Loan Bank has fallen increasing just 3.4 billion dollars on Friday March 31st. Uh, I'm sorry on March 30th increasing only 3.4 billion dollars, declining 23 billion dollars on Friday So a less cumulative issuance of uh of capital from the emergency lending facilities for the banks, while at the same time, uh, these, uh, these earnings expectations or these lower earnings expectations aren't playing out just yet. Now many people seem to agree that Q3 Q4 is going to be when we actually see the real Cuts But there is one organization that thinks, you know what, Maybe things just aren't that bad.

Maybe just maybe we might actually be in an environment where we're going to have a Nike Swoosh recovery. that in the words of Kevin But let's take a look at what Credit Agricultural has to say about the potential for a soft Landing. So they start off by suggesting that the banking sector will remain a key Focus for markets, but so will employment data. The Jobless report will be very important to make sure we're not seeing any kind of wage price spiral, and we want to see that the banking sector drama is contained.

But one of the things that Credit Agriculture points out is that consumers have become increasingly reliant on credit cards and dipping into savings to maintain spending which is not great and that won't last forever. They say the savings rate is below pre-pandemic levels. We already know that we've analyzed that quite a bit. So where is the bullishness? Because so far that sounds bearish.

Well, they suggest that growth will prove to be pretty resilient in Q1 and likely into Q2. We expect a mild recession in the second half of the year. However, despite a mild recession, they believe that ultimately we will end up seeing a recovery as soon as 2024 in the first quarter of 2024. As long as inflation continues to drop, They say that a recession is not a given and we still see a path to a soft Landing if inflation were to ease faster than expected.

So in other words, base case scenario might be recession, but it should be relatively shallow or we might be able to avoid it. If inflation could potentially fall faster than expected. That'd be fantastic is their argument. Now, by the end of 2023, they think inflation will be in the low three percent range and that an improvement inflation data could also allow the FED to really cut solidly in 2024, specifically in the first quarter.

Technically, January is still considered the the sort of last quarter of the hiking period for the FED for 2023. So when the bond market prices and cuts for December of 2023, that actually extends into the January Feds meeting, so it gives you a little bit of insight here into where the Bears are pointing out. hey, we've still got issues Brewing here and we could be going to lower levels, especially if inflation remains any stickiness or maintains any stickiness at all. Credit Agricult takes the opposite approach and says hey, look, as long as inflation Trends down, we're gonna start seeing those cuts pretty soon and we could actually avoid a recession, especially if inflation Falls faster than expected which would be awesome.

So that gives you an update on the Bears and the Bulls foreign.