So is the stock market about to recover now that the Federal Reserve is about to Pivot What's going on? Team: It's Ricky here with talk about Solutions and I watched a tick tock I Found it to be very informative and I wanted to reiterate this information for all of you guys here on: YouTube A Lot of people are making the assumption that now that the Federal Reserve with the idea right, it hasn't even happened yet. But based off of current expectations because of what's going on with the banks, they think that the Federal Reserve is going to stop future rate hikes meaning no longer increase in interest rates which I personally don't believe. But regardless, right, they think that no more rate hikes and the FED is actually going to now provide rate Cuts right? Uh, expectation as of right now that's factored into the market is 1.25 in rate cuts by the end of 2023. I Thought I would share some of the data that I've gathered to provide a little bit more insight based off of history of when the Federal Reserve begins to Pivot.

If that actually reflects that, that is the bottom of the market, right? Because asking the question right now, I'm going to go ahead and start sharing my screen with you. People think that this is now the bottom of the market, which it very might could be right. But based off of history, when the Federal Reserve begins to Pivot from rate hikes to right cuts, there is actually a delay on when the market actually bottoms mean. meaning that by the time that the Federal Reserve actually begins to provide these rate Cuts lowering interest rates, the market still actually sells that off and I wanted to show you this information.

So what history says about Fed rate hike, cycles and stocks, right? So these were a series of rate height Cycles from 1983 back to 2015. and it shows that on average 22 months right with a median of 14.. So what this is telling us is that on average from when the Federal Reserve begins to Pivot, it takes around 14 months for the stock market to actually bottom and again, this was actually one of the Uh screenshots that I gathered. and it shows again some recessions based off of history from 1969 to 1970, from 1973 to 1975, 1980, 1982, 1990 to 1991, 2001, and then 2007 to 2009.

Again, A Lot of people are comparing this potential recession to 2007 and 2009 housing crash, right? So what this is telling us is that the bottom of when the market actually began to sell off from in comparison to the first cut from the Federal Reserve was 17 months. And this was in the 2008 recession, right? The housing bubble? 21 months, 16 months, 13 months, 13 months, and then the lowest one three months. So what this is telling us is that on average it takes 14 months for the market to bottom out from when the Federal Reserve begins to Pivot Again, it doesn't mean that we have to stick to that average, right? It's not from the first time that the Federal Reserve provides a rate cut That okay, 14 months from now Market's going to bottom. As you can see, these numbers are all over the place.

but I Thought that this could provide you with some insight based off of history of when we go from rate hikes to rate cuts, what the average time is for the market to actually bottom and then begin to recover, and what the average decline is. And it's 31.3 percent. Meaning that from when the Federal Reserve begins to actually pivot on average takes 14 months. So over a year and then it's a 31 sell-off So from what we're seeing right now, if that were to be the case, right the next Fomc meeting, let's say that that's when they actually begin to you know this upcoming month.

That's when they provide that First Rate cut. which I don't think it's going to happen that soon, But let's say that it does right. The First Rate cut 14 months on average, right? and then a 31 drop. If we look at the overall big picture for QQQ I mean a 31 drop would be pretty significant.

Do I think that that's necessarily going to happen? No, Uh, 31 seems very, very significant. And again, if you look at the overall average, there's some big, um, you know outliers here, right? There's some with 40 drops, another one with 42 percent. 2007. 2009 was a very significant market crash 55.5 percent.

Um, do I think things are as bad as what they were back in 2007-2009 Definitely not right. So I'm not here to instill fear in you I'm here to provide you what has happened in the past before and for you to be able to make a more informed decision with your position size, right? It's important to know what has happened in the history or in our past to make sure that if history does end up trying to repeat itself, you're a little bit more prepared right? because you're just a little bit more informed. I'm very excited for this week. For those that are unaware, the Federal Reserve does have a couple things planned for us I Wanted to review it with you guys.

We'll talk a little. Uh, talk about this a little bit later during our Sunday stock Talk which is a free live stream that I host here on the YouTube channel so make sure you subscribe. but for this upcoming week there's two specific speeches from Vice chair. uh, Michael Barr and this is going to be on Tuesday and on Wednesday I Do not have to live stream this I don't even know if I necessarily want to, but I'll leave it up to you guys.

If you guys get this video to over 2 000 likes I'd be more than happy to host a free 30-minute to maybe one hour live stream on both Tuesday and on Wednesday As a lot of you guys do like when I Go Live and pretty much you know together as a team, we watch the market react to whatever it is that is said by you know. Federal Reserve Officials right? Vice Chair Obviously a very important position. it's not Jerome Powell but the vice chair is definitely pretty important when it comes down to the Federal Reserve So overall, I'm very excited for what's to come this week. as of right now, NASDAQ Market Uh seems to be at its resistance up level right? Looking at previous resistance, we're testing that resistance range I Think this will this week will be very significant.

We'll either begin to break above go long, right, go bulls or get rejected based off previous patterns and begin to retrace back down to that 290 support regardless of which way the market ends up going. Remember, our job is not to predict the future, our job is simply to prepare for it. and this is why we focus on one thing and one thing only. and that's Market Direction So let's keep trading simple.

Let's not hope for something to happen. Let's wait for that confirmation and watch that position size I Want to remind you that you have nothing but time to make money? So please make sure you watch your position size and you don't go in super aggressive. especially when Direction isn't in your favor just yet at least I Wish someone would have told me that when I first got started. So I hope that you learned something new.

Let me know in the comment section if you found this video to be interesting from the comparison of the First Rate cut to when the market actually bottoms out down in the comment section: appreciate your time, Hope that we're into thumbs up! I Do want to remind you: I do trade live every morning with one team and one team only and that's my learn plan profit Team if you want to learn more about that and watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow at Market open click the second link in the description down below. We're running our biggest sell right now and I hope to see you there. If you have any questions, message me via Discord and that's that first link in the description down below. And don't forget to enter our GTR giveaway or fifty thousand dollars cash and that's that fourth Link in the description down below.

Like always, let's make sure that we end the year on our green. Nope. Take it easy team.