Hey guys, it's Sasha. Unemployment data for the United States came out this morning and it smashed all expectations. This apparently is a bad thing. The US added 253 000 non-farm jobs in April and the hourly wage growth went up 0.5 month a month and was up 4.4 year on year.

You can see that Treasury notes immediately jumped after this data came out because of course, good employment and good wages are a 100 sign that a recession is on the way and the FED will continue increasing rates is the worst thing that can possibly happen. In case you're confused by that sentence is because it makes no sense whatsoever. But we live in a time when good employment and robust wage growth are a really bad thing. and according to economic experts on CNBC, it's approximately the worst thing that can ever happen to an economy.

Because before today's announcement, every expert was forecasting that unemployment data unemployment rate would go up, but instead it went down to 3.4 percent, which is the lowest level since 1969. And you can see that on this chart here. The unemployment right now is what is technically known in the industry as low and idiots like me. Look at this sort of thing and think that it's a good thing because high employment is a sign.

the underlying economy is doing well. There are lots, there are record numbers of jobs out there for people to take. You see the headlines in the newspapers that Google fired 5000 nerds and Facebook fired 10 000 Wii characters. but the fact trimming by Tech Giants is not representative of the US economy.

Overall, it's not representative of blue collar jobs. In fact, the media headlines are anyway because in January Google announced that they are laying off 12 000 employees and the media went berserk writing all these headlines. Oh my. God So many people losing their jobs and in the most recent thank you filing with the SEC Google said that they have 190 711 employees.

that includes the 12 000 that are on their way out. So after the 12 000 fight employees leave, Google will be left with 178 000 plus change. And here is the 10q form from exactly 12 months ago. and in that one Google said that they had 163 806 employees and the year before that Google had 139 995 employees.

So yeah, if you read the news, it kind of sounds like Tech Giants are in Dire Straits they're firing always everyone who works there. but the data says that Google actually increased their Workforce by nine percent in the last 12 months even after you account for those job losses. So employment date in the US is doing great and of course, employment is one of the two metrics that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is responsible for. The guys on that committee don't seem to know what their job is though because every time good employment data comes out, those clowns start giving speeches saying that good employment is bad news and they better go do some rate hiking to start killing off jobs.

How dare those people have jobs? Quite how the US economy continues doing so well, despite the Jerome Powell's best efforts to things up. I Do not know, but it is pointing to the incredible resilience of the US economy despite the fastest increase in interest rates in history. Of course, the FED will say that good job data means that the economy could be doing too well, it could be running too hot so well that people will be earning so much money, too much money, and therefore they will have all this money that they'll go out and spend and therefore inflation is going to run right. The problem, of course, is not people going to their jobs and earning money.

that's actually kind of good. The problem is that the FED invented a covid vaccine that looked suspiciously like hundred dollar bills and then proceeded to give those dollar bills to everyone who wanted any. But the argument is there nonetheless that the problem is inflation and the FED will do anything to beat inflation, which is much too high at five percent above the two percent. Target and I know I know the FED is not very good at looking at data and doing math and all that.

so I thought it land during Powell a helping hand and explain what's actually happening with inflation. News came in this morning that used car prices fell three percent in April against expectations. Not quite sure which expectations. That's what I've been talking about for a few months now.

The overall level is still incredibly high from a historic perspective, but we are now also seeing a price war in new cars, which is likely to extend this run. Tesla started slashing prices beginning of the year now Ford is joined with the price cuts on the Mac e GM and others haven't quite started dropping their prices yet. But the prices are not increasing at least and drops are going to come eventually after car prices in the US exploded way too fast artificially last year on the back of Stemi checks house prices that were exploding ever since covert first arrived took a big step down in Q1 already this year. according to the Saint Louis fed with a medium price falling from 479 500 to 436 800.

that's a nine percent drop quarter on quarter, which is a bigger drop than at any point in 2008 when we had the Monster Housing crash. And it's bigger than the big drop we had in the 1990 crash is bigger than the drop at the peak of the last inflation crisis 40 years ago. In fact, I checked and it's the biggest quarterly drop since this data started being recorded in 1963, which is odd because I haven't seen a single report from any mass media about this, which is kind of strange. It couldn't possibly be because this, goes against the BS accepted narrative that they are meant to feed on the back of house prices.

Declining rent prices continue dropping after two years of ridiculous increases, Inflation data will come out next week, and we probably are not going to see any of these housing numbers come through because shelter the part of inflation that covers housing is a massively lagging indicator. But we know that these drops are here. We can see them in the data, and we know that they will be exerting a big downward pull on this part of the Consumer Price Index sometime later this year, going into next year, energy is another big part of the index. Just a few weeks ago, the Russia and OPEC cartel decided to cut production to try and make more money from from their oil because this sort of Market manipulation is the only way that they know how to make money.

Oil price went up after the announcement, and then it came right back down, sticking a big fat two-finger salute at the price gouging tactics after the oil price spiked last year. Joe Biden ordered the U.S Strategic Oil Reserves to start pumping oil out to help bring the prices down and keep the economy running. A lot of people were criticizing it, but this was a good move because the oil reserves were at Max Capacity and if Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting oil blockade are not the time to use your emergency supply, when is the right time? By December last year, the Strategic Reserve dropped by 43 from their Peak, but in the first four months of this year, no more oil reserves have been used and the price remained stable regardless and much lower than last year U.S Natural gas production hit a new record in 2022. At the same time, exports to Europe increased 150 percent after they cut off Russian supply lines.

and the result is that the gas prices now come collapse to a level that is four times lower than it was at this time last year. Now, the lower oil and gas prices do not mean that consumers are immediately benefiting. Gas at the pumps are still much too expensive, and electricity bills are still way too high. Because of course, energy companies will be really dumb not to take ridiculous advantage of a crisis.

In case you haven't heard, pretty much every single Energy company out there has been posting record profits I Know how impossible to predict that one? In the olden days, the people running these companies will be dragged through the streets and then hanged for taking advantage of people and running a cartel. But in modern times it's called capitalism and it's apparently okay. But as the commodity prices have collapsed eventually, the retail prices will have to follow. Market Forces will defeat even the greediest energy companies given enough time, so we know that the energy part of the Consumer Price Index will continue falling in the coming months as well As a result, and most other parts of the index indirectly also include energy costs.

Food has a big energy component in manufacture and distribution, for example. So here's the thing. the U.S economy is doing surprisingly all right. Employment is improving, wages are holding up, unemployment is low, energy prices are coming down after a crazy 2022, and this is going to be a very welcome relief for households and help push inflation down as well.

The cost of rent and house prices are finally beginning to move in the right direction. The United States is leading the world in some of the most transformative new Industries like Ai and electric cars with the biggest leaders all being Us-based So as the world Transitions and adopts to include these new Industries, the U.S economy will benefit disproportionately as a result on the back of this growth. Stocks in the US that ballooned during covert and then got destroyed last year remain really cheap after. Worries about inflation? worries about interest rates? worries about a looming recession caps those prices down.

A company you probably have never heard of called Chegg recently reported their results Check is an online education company that said in their Q1 results that they think their business was badly affected by chat GPT And of course immediately after that happened we saw another wave of panic about artificial intelligence. I was going to come and take all of our jobs. The economy is going to explode. A lot of stocks began getting destroyed.

freelancing platforms like Fiverr Networks saw their share price absolutely annihilated because of course, every single historical example that we know where technology enabled us to do more work in less time to become more efficient was absolutely disastrous for the economy. The arrival of electricity sent the world back to the Dark Ages factories meant that economic output shrank suddenly, and Collective farming meant that you didn't need armies of people to plow the fields, which of course, came in a huge detriment to the global economy. And now Ai is going to be equally disastrous. completely ruin our lives and destroy the economy.

not a shadow of a doubt about it. So while everyone seems to be panicking and completely losing their I am sitting here looking at the long term and feeling weirdly excited, it's probably because I am a complete idiot because after all, I am just a random guy on YouTube YouTube I know all the usual dweebs and chicken dumbasses have suddenly come out once again from their mama's basements because you know the economy is about to collapse in the west ever crashes 100. Definitely absolutely guaranteed coming. but I'm not here to try and guess what happens next week or next month because I'm not an idiot because as an actual long-term investor, I am far more interested in where the world is going to be in 10 or 20 years.

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