Believe it or not, the CPI data report which is known as the inflation report is going to be tomorrow February 13th 1 hour before the Market opens which is at 8:30 a.m. And this is everything that you need to know before the CPI data report actually gets released. So I really hope that you learned something new and if you feel like we earned it, please consider dropping a thumbs up and subscribing. Um as I would love to keep you up to date.

One of the things that I do want to ask you guys is if you want me to host the live stream for the C data report tomorrow, let's get this video to over 1,000 likes I Just want to make sure enough people show up. so drop a thumbs up, Subscribe to the channel and I would be more than happy to host a free live session and that's going to be to capture the Market's reaction once the CPI data report is actually released. Now this is super simple: This CPI data report Regardless, if you choose to tune on in to my live stream I want you to be aware on where this report gets released and what is being reported. So the CPI data report month over month simply tracks if inflation is going up or down.

Inflation was at a 40-year high when we sat at a 99.1% inflation, but now we've been steadily making progress and as of right now, we are currently sitting at an actual 3.4% The forecast for tomorrow which is February 13th 1 hour before the Market opens is 2.9% We're going to get into that a little bit. So how is it that we expect to go from 3.4% to a significant can drop? Now, let me explain this very quickly. What happens if we come in higher than expected? Well, that means that the idea, right? the big Focus for 2024 has been cutting interest rates. When you cut interest rates, it makes it more affordable for people like you and I and for businesses to borrow money.

Now, if inflation comes in higher than what is expected, the idea or the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is going to get pushed back. We originally were hoping that maybe it could happen as soon as March based off of the last Fed meeting. Jerome Pal says no, our expectation is not really March That might be too soon. So now if this inflation report comes in lower than what is expected, then that shows that inflation is actually coming down or is actually being.

You know, working towards that 2% Target So therefore, they can maybe justify cutting interest rates sooner than later I Just want you to understand the thought process behind it. Everything is really focused around how the Federal Reserve is going to act. If inflation comes in higher than what is expected, then the Federal Reserve can potentially continue to pause. Or something that has not been factored in is potentially raising interest rates even more if inflation is coming in higher than what is expected.

Imagine that. Imagine that curveball because that's how the Federal Reserve uh manages higher inflation, right? If inflation is going up, if uh, we are, we are seeing that. um, the only way way that the Federal Reserve can really manage that is they can raise interest rates, slowing down the economy by making it less attractive for people like you and I to borrow money, right? Because when it's more expensive, right when interest rates are higher, it's more expensive for us to borrow money. Therefore, we're less likely to spend money.

So they slow down the economy, but we have an expectation that they're going to, you know, lower interest rates, so hopefully boost the economy and that would really drive the markets up right? Or again, it's all based off of what is reported. The forecast is 2.9% the current is 3.4% So this website on where gets released, it's free and available to all of you guys. it's Bls.gov CPI This is again the overall. um I mean all you do is you refresh it 1 hour before the Market opens and then you can pull up the PDF so I can pull it up for you guys here.

and it pretty much just tracks the previous 12 months of inflation and it tells us isn't inflation going up or is inflation going down? Then it has these line items and based off of these line items for that given month. So we're going to be reporting on the month of January right? Because January is now complete, We're now in February. So now January is going to get added here and then uh, we're not going to see June right? But this is just the way that they break it down. So we're going to see all these line items and based off of those line items in January Did inflation go up or down for those line items? So the idea would be food at home for January Did it go up or down down and then that's going to be marked right and every single line item down the road that all of it gets added together and then we get the overall inflation rate? Um, very, very simple.

It's much easier for me to break it down once it's reported and I can do this for you guys. live. It's a very, very simple. CPI Data report: I Know that if you tune on in and not only do we capture the Market's reaction uh, but I break it down for you so next time you wouldn't have to.

That's the goal right to never have to depend on someone else to understand some of these major economic reports. You have the website, you understand where it's going to be reported, you understand the Market's expectation, and you understand if we come above, markets are probably going to react in a negative way because of how the Federal Reserve is going to react. If we come in below or at or below the forecast of 2.9% then we can expect that maybe the markets can react in a positive way. The the reason why we're seeing inflation possibly Dro significantly.

As you have to remember, we're going to be removing .5% from 2023 and then adding the new inflation rate. So it's pretty much to be expect. So you can see that 0.5 Um is a big Um addition to this overall formula that is used to calculate the CPI data report. So you can see that this is a big piece of the P.

So if we remove this and then we add the new one for 2024, January And if let's say 2020, uh, 4 January is only a 0.1% increase, then great. We only added 0.1 and we removed 0.5 away. So you can see why there's a really high expectation of inflation to go down from 3.4 to 2.9% I Really hope that that keeps it simple enough. Uh, to have a better understanding of um, why the expectation is so low.

There's an exact formula on how this actual inflation rate is calculated that it's not just the previous 12 month added perfectly together. Um, but again, you can look up that formula if that's something that you personally want to do. Overall, Um, it's It's in general A like a very straightforward report. Once once it gets released, the market reacts instantly and then based off of that reaction.

uh, we can better determine you know if inflation went down, then okay, markets are probably going higher for longer if inflation went up. Then again, possibly a turnaround or a turning point for the overall. Market Very, very simple. I'm very excited.

but I'll leave it up to you guys. Remember, if you guys want me to host that live stream for tomorrow CPI Data Report: Just drop a thumbs up. Get this video to over 1,000 likes. Let them know down in the comment section and make sure that you subscribe to the YouTube channel if you don't turn on your post notifications.

YouTube will not notify you when it is that. I Go live and it's going to be 1 hour before the Market opens. So set your alarms. Don't sleep in, Don't be lazy, it's it's It's a fun environment.

Like everyone tunes on in, everyone's very excited. You don't have to trade the report. I Personally don't like to trade the reports. That's not the point of it.

The point is to capture the Market's reaction together on this CPI data report. and if you want to be a part of that environment. I'd love to welcome you to join us tomorrow 1 hour before the Market opens. So again I Hope to see you there.

Hope that a thumbs up. And again if you want to tune on into my live trading session. Uh, that's going to be right at Market open and that's going to be the second link in the description down below, especially if you want a big discount. Appreciate your time like always.

Let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care of team.