I Want you to take a look at this chart because this is going to be the basis for this video. This chart shows you buy versus a ratio of insiders basically our insiders buying more or selling more at any particular time. Now this is the five-year chart. As you can see, insiders are kind of good at timing the market even though we have insider trading rules Etc et cetera, But it seems like they know what they're doing right Insiders.

So I Always pay attention to the trend now. Look, this is 2020. you can see we had twice as much more buys than sales in 2020. You know what happened in 2020, right? So now we're at a historically low level of 0.22 The lowest we ever had was Point 12 Just before the 2008 crash, we're getting very close to that level right now.

Sorry for the pop-up I mean I should buy a subscription, but basically we're getting very, very close Right now. We have massive Insider selling whenever insiders are selling heavy I Get to be very, very anxious. Now that's not the only thing I Want to show you Obviously this is the Roundup We had 3 800 all the way to 4160 and now we're down to 40 80. So the question is, where are we going from this juncture I Just showed you insiders are selling heavy right now.

Not that it means anything, not that this is the sole way to figure out where the market is headed. It's not a crystal ball, but it's an important indicator to be aware of. Another indicator I Want you to take a look at is the Buffett valuation indicator. Now it's been kind of beaten to death, but it's a very simplistic model.

It actually tells you a lot about whether the market right now is high or low. It feels like the market is very cheap right now because we have the massive pullback. But looking at the Buffett indicator, it says something completely different. It's basically the Buffett indicator divides the amount of stuff we make in a year basically our entire economy to the S P 500 just to see the ratio between them two.

Just to keep it simple, look, the buffing indicator is the ratio even the total United States GDP as of February 3rd just four days ago. So that's fine. Basically, total market value right now is 44.5 trillion dollars. Our GDP is 26 trillion dollars.

So basically it means 170. So our stock stock market is 170 of the stuff we make. Obviously it's a little bit high, but how high? Look at this thing here below. This is the historical trend line and as you can see right here, oh wow.

I Used to like this guy on the on that show I forgot the name of the show. he was the police officer Reginald something I forgot his name Never mind I get distracted so easily. Basically it says look, look the average Trend trend line for the value of the ratio is basically shown below right. The current ratio is 170 percent.

It's 32 percent more expensive than the average trend line you can see below. So basically, right now look on the normal year. how did 120 would be kind of a little bit of an expensive Market 140 was very expensive right now we're 170 percent s p versus GDP It means that the market is insanely overvalued as an aggregate as a macro. Does it mean a crash is coming tomorrow? Not necessarily.

Does it mean it's coming in the month? Not necessarily. But the market isn't as cheap as it might feel because of the latest pullbacks, We had. just something to be kind of aware of. Also, if you take a look at the CNN Fear index, by the way, it's updated I Believe daily.

Very important tool with a very close to extreme greed. Money is flowing into the market. Be careful. They have a lot of indicators here showing you how they're calculating it.

I'm not going to go through it right? But basically the third grade index is right now almost at Peak Extreme read and you know what Warren Buffett said When everybody's greedy, I'm fearful and whenever is fearful I'm greedy. So another thing I want to show you is look household debt in the US have gone through the roof. This is the chart line. this is uh, from 2004 so you can see.

The trend line we had here was quite comfortable going slightly up every year and then it's shut up. Look at it. 2021. Poof.

It flew up. Obviously inflation hit right? It flew up right now with obviously a record record-breaking numbers. As far as household that this is the known housing debt and this is the housing debt. So obviously most of it is mortgages and you know what it means.

Higher interest rates means this number is only going to go up and this will impact directly on this. This is the personal savings rate as a percentage of your DPI disposable personal income. Right now we're I believe at 2.9 one of the lowest historical rates We have. Basically this means that the amount of money that people are saving compared to their disposable income is very, very low.

About three percent of the Disposable personal income is now going to savings versus what we had here 26 percent. We had 13 just a year ago, so it went from 13 savings out of disposable personal income to three. So people are saving much much less. they're spending more.

They're aggregating more debt and this is as low as numbers as we've seen probably is 2008. Look, this is 2001 numbers 333 and then we go 2008 about three. So every time we hit that three threshold, it's a very scary situation now. I'm not here to tell you that you know everything is going to go Uh, obviously Kaboom and exploding I'm not here to solve fear I'm just telling you insiders are selling important few ingredients at Max close to Max Warren Buffett indicator showing 170 which is extremely high credit card debt.

Household debt is going through the roof and the percentage of savings is going down to historical lows. Just something to bear in mind before you make a decision. Whether this is a sustainable Bull Run or not. Thank you so much before.

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