Anyone else Not trade today? What's going on guys? It's Ricky Here with talk about Solutions and I Want to talk about the one of the economic reports that's going to be released tomorrow and that is the Pce report. It's one of the Federal Reserve's favorite way to actually be able to track how the economy and pretty much how inflation is doing. Uh, and it's not necessarily the CPI data report, but it's the Pce Report. Now, how does this differentiate from that CPI data report.

So CPI right? Consumer Price Index Report really has a big focus on what consumers are paying for things. When it comes down to the Pce report, it's more on the business side of things. So technically let's say when it comes down to medical expenses, one of the examples that I thought was uh, very simply understood is that when it comes down to the CPI, the CPI just tracks what the consumer is paying right out of pocket. When it comes down to the Pce report, it also takes into consideration giving a more broad explanation of you know well, how much let's say Not only is the consumer paying, but as well as how much is the employer are paying for those medical expenses as well, right taking and giving more of a broader breakdown on what is being spent on what and not just on the consumer.

So again, it's one of the more favorable tools from the Federal Reserve. And if you hear and listen to them, when Jerome Powell speaks, you often hear him. Not just focus on core CPI and CPI, but he often talks about the Pce data and making sure that that is a huge Focus for the Federal Reserve Let me go ahead and start sharing my screen so you guys can see exactly what it is that. I'm looking at the reason that I say again, Today just seemed like a day not worth trading for me Again, we all see value in different ways.

It's from where the market really began to, you know, Peak and then the progress that it made. Beyond that, we hit highs of around 42.16 and then from that point moving forward. Yes, we did hit highs of 42-28 but from 40 to 16 to 42 28, it's not much progress. We saw like a lot of consolidation here.

it's the same general resistance range. We got rejected, we pushed up, we got rejected, and we closed that 42-10 So within the first hour if you caught this big rip, I Mean you pretty much caught the biggest move from the day, right? Unless you held the position overnight and you were in Tkq, you probably didn't benefit too too much. Unless again, you got a really good entry here at the lows of 4108 for Tkq. Now, when it comes down to the overall expectation for these Pce reports, I Wanted to make sure that I broke that down for you.

So when is the Pce report released and how can you prepare right? That's the question that you should be asking. Thursday August 31st Which is tomorrow. We have the Pce prices and PC prices core right? The PC report comes out at 8 30 A.m Eastern time, which is one hour before the Market opens. Wherever it is that you are right.

So one hour before the Market opens and you can see that based off of Market expectation, our forecast for August 31st, 2023, the forecast is 3.3 percent. Our previous is 3.0 percent. so we're actually expecting a slight increase. As you can see, Pce has actually been seen a consistent decline since our peak of highs of 6.8 percent, and we've been making a steady decline to lows of three percent.

So I think that tomorrow will pretty much determine what the Federal Reserve is bound to do on the next Fomc meeting. For those that are unaware, again, it's completely fine. But when it comes down to the big Focus right now for the stock market, it's the Federal Reserve right? Uh, in my opinion. And please share your opinions down in the comments section so other beginners can see in my opinion, right now, the word from Jerome Powell and the word from the Federal Reserve is almost more important to the stock market than.

let's say if President Biden were to say something and the reason I say that is right now, the stock market has such a big focus on monetary policy. Are we going to continue to raise rates? And if so, The stock market doesn't necessarily like that. Now let me explain why. If the Federal Reserve raises rates, that means that it's more expensive for people like you and I to borrow money.

Now, why does the stock market not like that? You know who makes this money? Well, when it's more expensive to borrow money. The reason that the Federal Reserve does that, it's to slow down the economy. And if you slow down the Econ economy. Does that promote growth? No, quite the opposite, right? It slows down the economy, So therefore, it doesn't promote growth.

And this hurts both businesses and consumers, right? This is the reaction that tomorrow will pretty much summarize and I can try to predict the future. You can try to predict the future. Any analyst can try to predict the future, but guess what? It doesn't matter. The Pce report will be released one hour before the Market opens, and I'm going to be waiting for the market to choose a direction.

Are we going to be bullish? Or are we going to be bearish if it comes in higher? Technically speaking, if the Pce report comes in higher than expected, that means that again, our expectation is 3.3 percent. Let's say that we come in at 3.4 3.5 That means that it's actually coming in a little bit higher than what was expected. The Federal Reserve could be expected to potentially raise rates again on the next Fomc meeting. Does that make sense? If Foms if I'm sorry Pce report comes in at 3.2 3.1 3 anything lower than what's already factored in, then the market could go up.

Because the Federal Reserve could potentially not raise rates and just pause on the next Fomc meeting and on the next potential rate hike. Make sense. The whole focus is based off of what is reported tomorrow. for the Pce report, what is the Federal Reserve going to do? Are they going to raise rates Or pause? And that's the big Focus I Mean there's even a Fed rate monitor tool from Investing.com And the really cool thing about that is I can actually try to look it up.

And the really cool thing, it's not going to pull it up here. So so Fed Rate tool monitor. Yep, and it's from Investing.com Feel free to check it out. So right now there is an expectation.

Right Right now we sit at a 5.25 to 5.5 percent. Um, what's called interest rate hike, right? If you look at the previous hikes that is currently where we're at and then it's saying that the probability for us to pause is pretty high, right? So we're still two weeks and six days away from the next Fomc rate hike. uh, or rate decision, uh. But also there's a 10 probability so it's going to be uh, that they could potentially raise rates.

So it's going to be interesting to see that based off of what is reported tomorrow, is the Federal Reserve now going to have a higher probability to raise rates? Or is there now going to be even a higher probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause all I Know is that the last time that I again I've followed up with this Fed rate monitor tool, it has been pretty accurate. Is it going to be 100 accurate? Definitely not. Nothing is in this life, right? But it's been cool to be able to see how it digests the different economic data that is shared and reported and how it makes assumptions or comes up with these probabilities. and it just is a way that we can use it as a resource when having an expectation.

But again, I've said it once and I'll say it again at the end of the day. it doesn't matter what is reported or what we might assume the Federal Reserve might do, or how the market might react at the end of the day, all that matters is how it actually reacts, right? So this is why we stay cash. We wait for the market to report, to digest the data and choose a direction. If it's bullish, will go long.

if it's bearish or goes short, that's the simplest. I mean in a perfect world, that's how I would approach the market every single day, right? If market conditions are choppy, then I just choose to stay cash right? And that's kind of like what we did today where if I don't see conditions very favorable, right? Because of my flight lessons today I Caught the market when it was consolidating up here during my live trading session with the Lpp team. It was very obvious for me that we weren't aggressively making new highs and we were overbought from yesterday's performance that I was like, um, maybe today's a day where I don't want to open up a trade right because any open position is a position that's open to risk and that's just something that I want to remind you tomorrow. It doesn't matter what you think, it doesn't matter what I Think it doesn't matter what any analysts think.

it's how the market reacts and digests that data and moves. And even tomorrow's reaction isn't set to be like fact on how the Federal Reserve is actually going to act. it's just how the market digested right. And as a day trader, our job is not to over complicate it, it's just to take it day by day, right? So very excited to be able to trade with our Lpp team tomorrow! I Think it's going to be quite an interesting live stream I'd love to have you there.

if you've never watched me trade live, tomorrow's probably not one that you want to miss out on and it's going to be the second link in the description down below again. I Work with one team and one team only. and that is the Lpp team. And again, we're running our biggest sell to one-time payment lifetime access.

And yes, you get to see my entries, You get to see my exits, you get to see my good trades, my bad trades, But most importantly, you get to hear my thought process behind every single trade. And that tends to be the biggest value for someone that's just getting started. The why behind every entry exit and you know, cut losses, take profit. Whatever the case, might be so excited to see you guys there again.

Second link down below. if you have any questions before, join in, shoot me a DM via Discord and that's the first link in the description down below. I Appreciate your time like always to make sure that we're in the year on our green. now.

Take it easy team.