So there is a 61.9 chance that the Federal Reserve is going to announce a rate hike in the month of June What's going on guys? It's Ricky with Techbook Solutions Don't take my word for it, let's go ahead and just jump right into this. It looks like on June 14th is the next Fomc meeting. Uh, This is when the Federal Reserve comes together and announces their next rate hike, their rate pause, or their rate cut right? This is what the Federal Reserve will have to announce. Are we going to Pivot Are we going to continue the fight against inflation? Or are we just going to pause right? Based off of this Fed rate monitor tool, there is a 61.9 percent chance that we continue to raise rates at least a quarter of a basis point in the month of June Right? There is a 38.1 percent chance that we do not announce a rate hike and just create a rate pause.

This is what is being factored in to the market today. Obviously over the weekend, the White House and GOP announcing that they agreed on a deal. Now it's I I think it gets voted on tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. Uh.

and then it has to get passed through Senate right? So hopefully all goes well because the deadline according to what is currently being uh set in place is June 5th. So June 5th is our like default. Uh. And if not enough people vote for this build Uh or this agreement to pass Uh to raise this debt ceiling based off of the specific request from both the Republicans and the Democrats Then we go back to square one and it's going to be very interesting to see how the market reacts to this.

This is why I think right now the Market's a little wishy-washy not just because I think some of it is already factored in, but also because of the uncertainty if they're actually going to agree to the terms on this agreement. Uh, so very excited to follow up, but I wanted to make sure that ahead of time you guys understood this. Market Expectation If this is not something that you guys have on your watch again, this is a free tool. You can literally Google search it Fed rate monitor tool and it pretty much just gives an expectation.

It's not guaranteed, but just an expectation on specific probabilities. If we're going to announce a rate hike and or stay the same at the five to five point two five percent. So again, 38.1 percent that we stay the same or a 61.9 percent chance that we actually announced the right hike. Uh, this doesn't really surprise me because if you guys remembered when Jerome Powell spoke last, uh, one of the things that he said is that the stock market could be factoring in one thing, but the Federal Reserve you know can have something completely different in mind, right? He seemed very hawkish in the way that he spoke when he was what was it? He was with Bernanke as well and he was speaking to um, what's it called during an economic conference And the really interesting thing about that is that um, he that was the first time I ever heard him say uh, that his View and the Federal Reserve's view is often different than what the stock market likes to factor in right away.

Um, and I found that to be pretty interesting. The market really didn't react to it, but it looks like based off of that Fed monitor tool, the Fed rate monitor Tool Uh, this almost agrees with that that yeah, it looks like we are most likely going to continue with these rate hikes. and as we get closer to this, it wouldn't really surprise me if the market begins to sell off because originally the market was factoring in that the Federal Reserve was going to pause right and or cut back on rate hikes and jump out. Nearly almost laughed at the idea of rate Cuts because we're nowhere close to where we want to be is what he specifically said.

So if you guys didn't watch his previous speech I'd encourage you'd watch it. It's always very interesting to hear what he has to say. and when he talks about the stock market because you know I mean in my opinion, this is just my opinion. but I think that one Jerome Powell speaks and when he gives his specific perspectives or ideas, that almost has more of an influence in my opinion than when Biden says anything.

And Biden's the President right? But obviously Jerome Powell's the head of the Federal Reserve event. Uh, that's just where a really big focus is right now, because with this fight against inflation and of course, um, you know, monetary policy and stuff like that, So uh, very excited to follow up as of right now. Uh, Market's been kind of sideways where I worked kind of testing support here right around 350 and we're also still getting rejected as of right now by this moving average. so we'll see if we actually can hold Above This EMA and then break above.

uh, the moving average. But if not, if it breaks below this image, it's not going to surprise me if it just continues to teeter-totter and hold above that 350 range. We haven't been able to break below it. I Was just crazy to see that it was so so bullish pre-market and then right when the Market opens, it just begins to tank and aggressively sell off.

and then now we're just trading sideways. Pretty boring day. I Think the Market's kind of just waiting for them to follow up tomorrow and to see what um is passed based off of this U.S debt deal. So I'll make sure that I keep you guys up to date.

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