Sorry for the late upload, just had to put my daughter to sleep. But what's going on guys, It's Ricky here and let's talk about how to prepare for tomorrow. CPI Dat Report Tomorrow November 14th 1 hour before the Market opens I Plan to go live again. All I literally ask you to do is get this video to over 1,000 likes and to subscribe to the channel.

Make sure I mean YouTube will literally not notify you once I Go Live if you don't turn on your post notifications. so I get it. It's annoying for me to ask, but I You know if you tend to sleep in, just know enough, right that if you want to watch this CPI data report, it's one hour before the Market opens. so it's going to be at 8:30 a.m.

eastern time. Or if you're here in Arizona it's at 6:30 a.m. again. I'm very excited! It's one of my favorite economic reports.

It's an inflation report and I'm going to be breaking down. I'm going to be giving you an example, right? Even if you don't want to tune on in to my live stream I Want you to be aware of where this report is going to be released, the website, how to read the report, and what the Market's expectation for this report is. So again, I Really hope that you learn something new, and if you do, please consider dropping a thumbs up and subscribing to the channel. If you feel like we earned it, let's go ahead and get right to it.

So again, um on Sqqq I made a little bit over $3,100 um and then on Tqqq I Didn't trade this today so just my one lucky share was down 25 cents. Um, and this is coming back from or I Guess not not even a comeback cuz I lost 30k on Friday Uh, so a very small win. Um, and just I mean I'm really just waiting for tomorrow, right? We all know that the day before CPI data report markets tend to trade pretty sideways, so I'm not surprised that Monday today was a little bit slower because most of the action is set to happen tomorrow. So first off, what is the Market's expectation? Well, one of the first things that I want to share with you is on the technical side.

Yes, Market is overbought. You know, based off of recent patterns that is testing previous resistance levels. But let me remind you, the market doesn't care about technicals. if this report comes in.

You know if inflation comes in way lower than what was expected and it supports the case that the Federal Reserve does not have to raise interest rates anymore, this would be a really great sign for the overall. Market We should see, it's not. You know, easy to predict, right? So it's There's no point of predicting, but we should see in a normal Market Market condition, the market would react in a negative way if inflation comes in lower than what was expected. what's the Market's expectation for tomorrow? So according to Investing.com the Market's expectation for tomorrow.

The forecast is 3.3% So we're expecting a drop from our current rate of 3.7% inflation to 3.3% inflation. Let me know in the comments section what you think about that. Are we setting up for failure because it's such a significant drop? Or do you think it's likely? Let me know down below. But okay, where does this report get released? Super simple and again regardless.

if you tune on in to my live stream I Of course I would love to see you there. but I Get it. You might have your own things going on I Want you to be self-sufficient I don't want you to have to rely on anyone. So where does the CPI data report get released? So every single month, there's this thing called the CPI which is the Consumer Price Index report.

It pretty much just tracks inflation on specific items right and tells you month over month is inflation going up or down. And this website is Bls.gov CPI it's the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Okay and then right 1 hour before the Market opens, this report gets released and it first becomes available. It always is not available on PDF but it's right away available on HTML And this is how it looks like.

It looks super confusing. but let me again, it's kind of just like your iPhone. It's very overwhelming if you are just aware of all that it does. but when you want to call someone, you know exactly what application to use and what to do.

right? It's the same thing with this, right? What are we looking for? So when this report gets released, we're looking Okay, Well what is the report right? We're at 3.7% and this is the first paragraph of the CPI data report. You're going to come here. It should say now October 2023 because remember the month has to complete that the report gets then tracked, that data gets sent over and then we report on the previous month. So this report of September was released in October and the and the month of October then gets released in the month of November right? So um, just understand that right now it then talks about okay, well did inflation go up or down? It talks about what what it increased by.

So last month we saw an increase of 6% in the month of August right? And then it reported that based off of the last 12 months, all items in the index. so again this is very specific. This is overall CPI came in at 3.7% So right when this report gets released, all I'm looking at is this last sentence of the first paragraph. What is the what's the uh, inflation rate at three? You know.

Other than that, I You know when it comes down to breaking it down, we can break it down on these line items. but there's the first thing I'm looking at. The second thing I'm looking at is then what is course CPI at Now this is where it gets confusing. for some people.

there's overall CPI And then there's Core CPI. So it's like if I were to tell you, you know, hey, I'm trying to. This is a horrible analogy and I'm known for this. But let's say I'm trying to track your calories right.

And then I get an overall breakdown on everything that you ate, right? So I get an overall calorie breakdown. but if you consumed any liquids or protein shakes, I don't count that as overall calories I Count that as core calories, right? So those core calories are counted on core calories, but not overall calories. The the reason I'm sharing this with you is because with there's overall CPI and then there's Core CPI Core CPI are all items excluding food and energy. So you can see right here.

all. um, the index for all items less food and energy. this is considered Core CPI saw an increase of 3% in the month of September. So this is telling us that Core CPI saw an increase for the month of September.

But then again, it breaks it all down for us. So 3.7% was overall CPI and then all items less food and energy I Don't know why they make it so confusing. This is just Core CPI came in at 4.1% overall. CPI and Core CPI are tracked separately and then if we come down here when we go to like the Pdf version, the Pdf version shows us like this with these like little pretty graphs.

It tells us okay, inflation went up or down or whatever the case might be right. and then it shows us these line items where all items are is this blue line graph and then all items less food and energy is core CPI. So that's what we see here. So Core CPI as of right now is higher than all overall CPI.

So Core CPI is currently higher and all CPI is currently lower. The reason that this is important to understand is that the Federal Reserve really focuses on Core CPI and the reason this is is because food and energy are not some something that the Federal Reserve can control with their form of monetary policy, right? If they raise or drop interest rates at the end of the day, gas and food are specific Commodities that we're going to still need to either consume or purchase right? And the same thing when it comes down to the production of it, right? A Lot of these are Imports Same thing with food and energy right the way that we import those kind of things. So um, it's it's just not something that the Federal Reserve can control. So this is why again, they're recorded separately.

There's overall CPI which are all items and you might be asking or rookie what are all items. Again, it's super super simple. There's food, food at home, food away from home, energy energy Commodities gasoline, fuel oil Energy Services electricity, utility, piped gas services So this is what is included in overall CPI plus this right? But then core CPI does not include this top section. Okay, so come Commodities less food and energy.

It says new vehicles use uh, cars and trucks, apparel Medical Care Commodities and then Services less Energy Services is shelter, transportation services, and medical care services. So these items are what's included in core CPI These items are or everything is included in overall CPI and again, it's super easy to read this. All you're looking at is tomorrow there's going to be a new um pretty much square to the right right and then they're going to take away the month of March So there's going to be a new Square to the right and it's going to say October and then it's going to tell us for these line items for food. Did it go up or down in the month of October and then it tracks it and then food at home.

Did it go up or down in the month of October and then it just goes down the list. So you can see that some of these line items are seeing an increase of 04. 2.1 point4 and then usually gasoline or energy are the is the biggest contributor to inflation. So we see a lot of volatility within that.

And in the month of September, we saw that you know energy saw a big jump. So I think this is why they're expecting that in the month of October, we're probably going to give some of this back and begin to retrace. Um, But then you can see that you know for used car and trucks we saw a decrease of - 2.5% right? We saw a decrease of0 4% So all this stuff right And then all of this gets calculated in a specific formula. Uh, and then that's how they come up with.

you know, Hey, did we see an increase? And by how much and then it's the way that CPI is calculated is that there's an exact formula to it. But it's pretty much the last 12 months. So again tomorrow they're going to report on the month of October. So that means that we're taking away the 05% increase that we saw in October in 2022 and then we add the new month.

So let me explain this. This is the most important part. It's very simple math. I mean there's an exact formula to it, but I'm just going to give you kind of like a general idea if we were to add in the month of October That yes, inflation did go up, but it only went up by .1% And if that's what is added for the month of October And remember, October or CPI is only calculated from the previous 12 months.

So if we take away this the October from 2022, we take away a 05% increase from the formula and then we add a .1% increase. This is why we're we're expecting a more significant drop from 3.5 to you know, 3.3% At that point, they're expecting a 4% drop, which would make sense. I Mean at that point they're expecting uh, you know, the actual increase of overall inflation to be 0.1 maybe. 2% and this would mean that we should see a drop from 3.7 to 3.3% Inflation? Make sense.

and if it doesn't again, I'm going to be breaking it. Down Live tomorrow. One hour before the Market opens, all you literally need to do is show up. Okay, so we talked about the expectation.

We talked about where you can find the report and we talked about how you can read it I Really hope I made it a little bit easier for you to understand and again, if you have any questions whatsoever, please do not hesitate. Shoot me a direct message right now via Discord or via Instagram and that's the first or third link in the description down below again. I Would love to see you for Tomorrow's Live CPI Data report and all I ask you to do is to subscribe and turn on your post notifications and that and get this video to over 1,000 likes. Other than that I'll see you tomorrow for our live CPI Data report I'll see you for the live trading session and that's the second link in the description down below.

I Appreciate your time like always! Let's make sure that we end the year on our green note. Take Care Team!.