Right welcome everybody to this impromptu stream. I hope everything is going to work all right because i just jumped on uh without doing very much preparation. If you can't hear me can't see me or something else or i'm getting something wrong, please do tell me and i'm going to try to correct as we go, but i just want to jump on because in just four minutes time from when i'm starting this live Stream, we should be seeing uh. Some results come out from twitter.

Um today is, is apparently the day uh and on the early and um uh, when they, when the whole saga with elon musk we're going to be talking about quite a lot today. I think um kind of concluded they said that they're not going to be doing an earnings call afterwards. So the only thing we're going to see, unfortunately, is the results and uh. Let me just show you, let me just show you show you what what one? Second, i'm gon na pop by the chat i'm gon na i'm gon na get set up so that w we're gon na be in for the long haul.

Let me just stick the chat in here uh in case anyone has anything to say but um. Let's have a look: let's have a look at i'm gon na i'm gon na keep refreshing the page as and when we get close, we're still a few minutes away um. But here is oh, oh, it's mirroring, oh one, second, something something up with my screen. Why is it mirroring my screen? Okay, one? Second, i'm gon na sort this out, uh sick.

Here we go all right, so uh results published uh at 8, 00 a.m. Eastern time, uh uh! Oh i'm, i'm early, i'm an hour early okay. So we have a few things to talk about before then. In that case, uh god i i got.

I got my pacific time wrong. Okay, so results are going to come in an hour, but before the results come um. Let's talk a few things um about twitter. That i think um uh we we have so overhanging from the last time.

Let's talk about the deal, let's talk about some of the risks with the deal. Let's talk about some of the stuff that was happening in the sec yesterday. Let's talk about some of the now that i have time hello, everybody uh, i i i didn't realize i've had that much time, but but it's good um we're going to talk about what happened with the sec um uh yesterday day before yesterday, whenever it was, i Don't know if you've been following but uh we're going to talk about that and then, as a result come out. Hopefully, we're going to be a little bit better prepared for when the results do come out, uh to actually discuss what's happening, so they are coming out at eight a.m.

Eastern time uh, which is in one hour, 5 a.m pacific time, and although this does say that there will be uh stuff later, there'll be q, a et cetera, et cetera. They subscribe now. So there's not going to be any q, a there's not going to be any investor, call there's not going to be anything uh, so we're going to go and talk so for anyone who has not uh kept up the speed - and i know that i released puberties As in when the saga was unfolding, but uh elon musk is now in approach of acquiring twitter and a lot of the news outlets. A lot of people out there went and published information saying oh well, yeah elon musk has already bought what it's a done deal like all the kind of rhetoric is that that is very much completed.

I would probably gon na get something in the quarterly results uh. When they do come out and that will try to explain hello everybody by the way um i'll try to read the comments as i go along. I'm sorry if i missed some of the comments but um it'll be interesting to see what they have to say. If anything in these results, because obviously these results will probably have been prepared a little bit in advance and they probably had to make a few amendments, it would be interesting to see how the wording in this goes, because, obviously, these results are going to be presented By the existing board - and this will be there - probably there's - probably going to be another um one set of results published under the current management, possibly two because the deal is going to conclude in six months time: hello, james, hello, everybody, hello, uh to tc natural from Ghana um, so there is a the announcement of elon.

Musk acquisition has put a six-month timeline on the acquisition going through subject to a bunch of stuff, and it's really really important to remember that the subject to a bunch of stuff still places a risk on the deal. Not completing the market seems to have decided. What is the twitter share price at the moment for the share price at the moment, as i'm recording? This is 48.49. It's actually dropped quite considerably off the 52 mark that it was sort of yesterday before yesterday, but but it's really important to remember that during the six months a bunch of different stuff can happen.

One elon musk has the option to actually directly pull out of the deal, and this is really people can he has to pay a penalty, and you know the penalties are like a billion or whatever it's quite substantial penalty. He has to pay, but he can still just walk away and kind of say look following on from the bid that i made and the offer like change your circumstances, change of thinking whatever and that that is a possibility. It probably won't be looked at very kindly by the sec, given that he went and acquired a whole bunch of shares and twitter and given some of the stuff he's been posting, but the sec and other regulatory authorities are the second hurdle, and it's also really important To uh, to remember that um, it's it's um, although the deal is kind of like done and agreed, and the board has like recommended the deal. We're going to talk through exactly what's going to be happening after that as well.

And although, although the deal has been agreed between the management of twitter and elon musk, there is going to be an an element of regulatory oversight, and, just yesterday before yesterday, elon musk's uh elon musk won one case and lost one other case. Um that's been going on. The 1k31 was about him uh, exercising unto influence over solarcity uh, which which is kind of interesting, because uh when tesla acquired solar city, there was a bunch of people who kind of said that perhaps they shouldn't have done it, and perhaps the deal was done to Enrich elon musk uh to buy you know his own company uh and and give him a load of free free shares and tesla as a result, and he won that case uh. The judge found that, like the the rationale used and stuff seemed to make sense - and there wasn't something unto what, however, he did lose another one where in 2018 uh 19, whenever it was uh 2018.

I think he struck a deal with the sec because remember there was two different tweets that he posted that really pissed off those guys at the sec. He posted he's going to take twitter private at 420 dollars and in the last few days, two elo must have been talking quite a lot about how the funding for that was indeed secured, as he was saying, um how uh he did have people on board. Some of the people that he said were on board have come out and said that no well, we kind of roughly discussed it. So the specifically the public investment fund of saudi arabia uh the management director of the time, apparently according to elon musk and according to, i think i think, zach and whoever else was present from tesla um in the meetings said that they did agree the deal and It was like hands shaken and all the details worked out.

It is now coming out that elon's saying that it was they're saying it wasn't: sec didn't take very kindly to it and according to elon musk, he went and struck a deal with the sec in order to go and kind of quash all of this stuff. Uh. Just going to check that the results haven't come out an hour early for some reason, but um he went uh. I don't know why they would but um he went and under the deal where he stepped down from being chairman, he had to pay a fine uh tesla to pay a fine and also he had to vet all of his tweets, um uh related to tesla or Other, like related uh, sec, uh, overseen entities and stuff like that, but anyway, uh so um, so elon musk went and struck the deal and as a result of that deal, um was not allowed to um to post stuff that would annoy the sec.

The sec has since then um had elon, musk, post a whole load more stuff, so he posted a bunch of stuff about what he thinks of the sec um, including the the now sort of forgotten, but but quite good. At the time tweet of su, you are saying that sec stands for uh suck elon's uh insert word uh as to whatever you feel like it um and and more recently, he's been um. He's filed a countersuit saying that the fact that they have oversight over his twitter activity and stuff like that is against his first amendment rights. It prevents him from being able to exercise free speech.

It prevents me able to say whatever he thinks um. The judge ruled against him and - and i think it kind of makes perfect sense - the judge kind of said. Well. If you make an agreement um, you can forego certain rights, including free, the right to free speech in certain like circumstances.

If you like, get something in exchange such as, like you know, uh the case doesn't gets closed or or whatever, and that is certainly what happened with even musk, and it's um, it's important to remember that um elon at the time said that he only struck this Deal with the sec and that i'm going to explain why this is relevant first here in a second but elon struck this uh deal with the sec in order to keep tesla afloat according to him. So, according to him so 2018 was you know one of the worst years. Maybe the worst year for tesla in terms of the production was ramping. Costs were ramping, um of the revenues and the profitability wasn't there yet, and at that point they were heavily reliant on financing from banks and because of this um sec lawsuit and everything that was hanging over tesla time.

Reportedly, several of the banks so providing a lot of financing tesla we're going to walk away from tesla, walk away from elon musk, and if that was to happen, then tesla would probably have gone bankrupt according to elon musk. Although i have a a feeling that if that was to happen uh, there would probably be somebody else ready to step into the shoes of those other banks to provide the financing required. Given the data that was available at the time, i'm sure there will be some financing available from somewhere. However, the line that elon musk has put forward is that um tesla would have collapsed if he didn't do that, and so that's why he kind of had to go and um do this deal with the sec, in spite of, he didn't admit guilt, but he had To do the deal in order to keep tesla, however, given that long history, given how he went into acquiring tesla with you know, like uh submitting the filings late for acquiring the initial 9.1 percent and now the way that it's transpired, he probably didn't even really have To do that um i mean sure he saved himself a little bit of money by acquiring nine, the first nine percent at the lower price and the 54.20 buyout that he ended up doing.

But he could have probably gone a bit more aggressive with the buying and collected a bunch. Like the you know, the bulk he was already on fi over five percent. You only had to report once he crossed the five cent threshold, but he probably could have uh crossed. The five percent threshold then reported within the required number of days and been more aggressive, uh during that period and probably collected six or seven percent of twitter anyway, and had the pretty much the same effect really in the grand scheme of things.

So i think i i think now because he's not doing one of the other ways of taking your twitter. It probably is um. It is probably the case that reporting late was maybe more just a genuine piece of oversight rather than the strategic ploy uh or maybe it was a tree deploying case, i think, probably in case it went through one of the other routes, but it just didn't turn Out to be something that was necessarily required so anyway, so the sec is going to be looking at this um acquisition. Remember it's one of the biggest private acquisitions ever i don't.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but there's probably only going to be a handful of acquisitions of this magnitude and 44 billion dollars uh, especially by a private individual like rather like you know, a company or a consortium, or something like that, taking something Private is one thing, but literally like a person, a person buying out a company like that um. That is pretty pretty unusual and i know he's not literally buying it. As a person he's created these holding companies um and like there's different holding companies within a structure that is going to be doing this buyout blah blah blah and the banks are lending these holding companies, so it kind of is but but it kind of isn't um. So we're going to be talking about the results as and when they come out in about 50 minutes time, but um a few people asking pinterest earnings.

Yes, so we had pinterest results. Last night and pinterest data came out, uh really quite well. It's interesting because facebook also published the results and facebook. Also, let me just have a supporter, um facebook.

Let me just tell you what the situation is: uh facebook share price, we're up 17.5 percent in pre-market, um uh, they post some results and and pinterest um is up 8.2 percent in pre-market, and it's interesting because i went and very quickly looked through the results. Last night, as they came out and looked through, and it's interesting because people were panicking last quarter when all the social media platforms and a bunch of other companies were posting results where their user numbers were falling, they were losing um, you know losing their share of People's eyeballs and it was just the unwinding from code, because what happened with a bunch of these platforms is where this big ramp, like an unusually fast ramp in usage of these platforms and therefore monetization as well. So the number of users, the use of the platforms by the users, etc, etc, etc. So so there was a ramp and then and then we're going to have to come down off the ramp because naturally, it kind of went above its natural, organic trend up and so, as it began coming down, people began panicking and remember, like facebook sold off a Lot, however, i looked at the results and i am not necessarily sure i see the same long term optimism uh with meta and i'm going to make a video specifically about that.

There's a couple of points um - and this is this - is all already on twitter. I'm going to say why in a second but um, there's a few points with meta, especially like. If you look at their capex expenditure and the investments that the business is making and then push on, you know all the chips into the table going absolutely all in. On the metaverse and absolutely nothing, no other real major plays um other than just sustaining the existing stuff, i'm not necessarily sure long term.

I would prefer that over some of the other stock options and kind of directions, they're going in um - and i think like if you look at like these guys - are spending more in capex than tesla - is on building the biggest factories in the world, which is quite An interesting thing when you begin thinking like like way way way more uh, absolutely crazy. In my opinion, uh, but there we go um so so um. But what we're seeing is this kind of resurgence by social media platforms where people are kind of realizing that maybe the dip wasn't just the end of social media. It wasn't the situation where oh okay nobody's gon na be using social media platforms in the future or any other tech platforms that had a bump.

You know, maybe it was just regression to the mean, but we're still going to be. You know growing in terms of these businesses, so the likelihood is when we're going to be seeing twitter numbers is probably going to be a bit similar, i'm going to go through what they had last time around just so we can go and have a look properly. Um but but it is going to be interesting to kind of see uh how this change in people's perceptions um. It's interesting also because when i looked at the numbers by pinterest, they shared the same technicals as facebook.

In terms of like the the drop in news is leveling out, so there's still a year on year dropping, but it increased quarter on quarter, which is quite an important um thing and j like like that. The monetization bit increased by, i think, a third which is the bit that i was focusing attention on last time around when i spoke about pinterest saying this is where the the the juice is. The monetization is so early that that thing is going to be growing. So if the users can stabilize and then slowly get back to some kind of growth or steady state, the monetization is where the value of the business is going to be, and that's definitely what's coming through in q1 results that bit looked for me a lot more Interesting than the method, but but i think, because meta sold off so hard last time last time around when the q1 results came out.

Maybe we're sort of seeing like this overreaction, like over balancing back um on meta, because i'm not sure like why, like necessarily mess, is bouncing back at twice the rate the pins, because i i saw some slightly more interesting, uh numbers. Personally, that's just my personal take and i'll do videos on each each one of them, probably one of them later today and then another one um after that, um all right. We need to. We need to introduce some moderators um, because uh there's clearly clearly spam bots that keep coming um all right, so um.

Let's look at what uh the twitter results were last time around and then let's talk about some of the issues uh that that, like uh, that i highlighted in last video, because when the results come out this time around it'll be really really useful to go and Kind of compare them uh directly to each other, should we look at the tables first or maybe maybe the presentation one second um so last time around. Let me just open the right bit on the screen and i'm going to share it to you. I'm drinking water, uh, water, that's what we're drinking all right um. What is it? I need the charts.

What are the charts? I've completely completely lost it today. I i spent the last three days finalizing the studio setup. So i don't know: if does it sound good? Does it sound any better because you can't see it, but hanging directly above me is a huge number of like sound proof, insulating panels? That's what i've been doing. It's been very exciting.

Uh kept me very busy, um sort of hanging a bunch of stuff off the ceiling and connecting a whole load of wires, so so so uh. This is about as good as the sound is going to get. I think uh, it's a giant new space that i have genu office, so um there we go all right, so um last time around one sec, so many reports i jumped into this into this too quickly. All right.

Let's share the screen, and here we go all right so um this one. It's good to see some channel members in here by the way uh sda sport, uh, hello, james jones. It's not you, hello, uh! It's it's great to have you here! If, if anyone else is around uh, say hello, if you want to join uh our discord where we discuss all this stuff, we discuss twitter a lot in there and everything else going on. So some of the stocks that we're considering, buying or buying or anything like that, just just a really great community live access to target prices and everything else and what i'm doing and what other people are doing feel free to sign up.

You can sign up either through youtube by hitting the join button or whatever it is, or through patreon link in the description. Um i'll see you in a discord if you want to join, but let's, let's quickly, um talk through what was happening last time around. So in q4 that there was this bump. However um, when you look at uh the operating income that uh we saw a drop and and twitter a bit like some of the other social media networks was coming under pressure kind of saying.

Well, look: there is some growth over here in usage, but is the growth really coming the right places because look here is the u.s market? The u.s market is on 37 million, going to 38 million. Is that really enough in a year for a company? That is this early on because you know most other social media platforms are far more penetrated into us uh user base. So this is uh monetizable. Do us it's not quite exactly the same metrics.

Some of the other people are using. But if you look at facebook, if you look some of the other business, even pinterest has more um active users. I think uh, then there's so so uh. A lot of people kind of saying is this: is the growth sufficient because the growth in these customers in um areas out in international outside the us is not necessarily really um uh one sec? Is there a per? Is that i i can't remember where it is? I think it's in the selected metrics one.

Second, let's have a look. Um you'll see here: um united states advertising revenue, yeah, okay; here we go so financial year who yearn q4. Okay. This this one is it's this, like this thing, it's hard to make you be able to see this, and maybe i'll talk about it, but here um gap, revenue uh.

If you look here quarter on quarter growth uh, where is key for here, it is so here quarter on quarter growth for united states um uh year and year. Here we go 21 last time around 45. 79. 19.

So you can see, there's a there's, a pattern. Uh, where it goes up and then goes down, etc. But, generally speaking, if you look at the the growth wasn't particularly exciting within the us, then you look at outside the u.s and the growth there looks also not particularly for a company that is priced very much for very heavy uh growth. We're not really seeing necessarily the sort of levels of growth on the revenue front, and certainly the lack of growth in the revenue front is not transpiring into any kind of profitability either.

And when we look at the um, the net income numbers um for fiscal years. Here we go um, you know, uh, not not not grey. Reading for a company, that's been around in the public domain for so long and that's why twitter share price um. I mean twitter share price.

If you go and look just over the last 10 years, it's just done nothing. You know like we're looking at times two like divide by two, but generally not really going anywhere, and the reason for that to in some people's minds is just. They haven't really figured out um what their monster strategy is and how to make the most out of these. They do have so um we're going to be talking about meta, we're going to be talking about a bunch of stuff uh later on, probably comparing the numbers as they come out over here uh and i'm going to making dedicated videos about facebook and about pinterest and About everybody else doing earnings uh we're going to be talking about a whole lot of that stuff um.

Let's answer a few questions uh that people have in the chat by the way, if you have a question, just feel free to chat it'll, be interesting to see what people um. What do you think about uh the question uh by elimask of twitter? Do you think that his aspirations are genuinely good? Do you think he is just trying to you know improve the situation with free speech in the world? Do you think that he is doing the right thing? Do you agree? Do you think he is doing it for nefarious reasons? Do you disagree with what he thinks free speech is. Do you think absolutist free speech is bad because it enables voices that you do not think should have a public domain for expressing their opinions. Where's the line uh, if you have any thoughts, please go and shout them in the in the chat and we're gon na cover cover them up.

Um. Some of the questions over here uh one second um, i'm feeling elongated fell hard with twitter and that would get him into depression and then tesla is screwed say, says: adele! That's that that's a an interesting, very negative view. I mean um, we'll see. I guess.

What's my favorite tea says andre um, i just i just drink builders, tea, it's just literally just a black. It's like a black tea bag in water. That's it! No! No! No! No! Nothing um! So i like it um sorry um! This is a an investment joke that is uh, very, not funny uh for anyone who can see it um anyway, uh. What else are people saying? Do you think jobs like accounting could be under threat in the future, with rapid development and tech or for dougie um? No, i mean, like tech, can replace a bunch of the processing and operational stuff and will make the job simpler, but somebody still has to make decisions as to how to attribute things.

How to like make like planning decisions and stuff like that. Like uh does we're a long way from actual thinking, actual strategic thinking being replaced by anything so uh there we go. Netflix sends uh death warrant when it double down on cheese pizza, i think netflix is, is, is uh prioritizing too much on like kind of very small amounts of content and not enough on bringing in more content from outside its own uh sphere. Um.

That's my that's! My view - and i think, like that's, probably becoming more difficult as disney and everybody else is trying to push their own platforms. Why would you go and sell your stuff to netflix when you can go and push your own platform instead, um yeah, it's gon na, be really interesting how this battle plays out, because obviously, we've got hbo max we've got disney. We've got all these different people competing and um. There's got to be some kind of like end game right, because it is not a reasonable.

It's not a reasonable scenario where, in order to be able to watch your favorite tv shows your favorite tv programming or whatever, that you have to have 20 different subscriptions and you have to flick between the different apps and you have to go. And like. Oh, this app is on my tv and this app is on this dedicated set top box, and this one i run through the internet, whatever it's just, not not not something that i think is going to be the long-term solution. But it means to see how this plays out as a long-term solution, because there will be something.

Is there going to be a third-party aggregator like a sort of a new netflix that aggregates all the other third parties and charges their money together? Uh, but with some kind of commitment to not produce their own content, i don't know i will have to find out. I do need like some sort of search engine type thing for for these things, um. What are people talking about thoughts on index funds dc naturals? Asking uh we still have 38 minutes before the results come out uh, let's just check that they, sometimes they just say stuff and then they come out and you don't you're sitting there for half an hour, not realizing that that's already out um uh index funds are Great most people should be investing their money all of their money into index funds. Most people should not be picking stocks.

The vast majority of people who do pick stocks will fail to beat just the stock market index overall, i repeat the same thing over time. I personally pick stocks um, despite knowing this, and if you do decide to pick your own stocks, which i think a lot of people in this channel. A lot of people in this chat probably are in that position. Then, if you are that kind of person, it's just important to be aware that that is a situation that, like you, if you pick stocks, the likelihood is that you are not going to be uh, be beating the market um.

Some of us like to think that we maybe have have like a chance or whatever, and i've done all right uh in my time investing over time - and i thought like let's start talking about it - a bit more publicly. Hence the youtube channel um so so yeah. I would highly recommend that nobody buys individual stocks, especially if you don't have the time, the energy, the resources, the want to really study and analyze them, because the worst thing you can do is go and start investing in individual stocks, twitter, tesla, whatever, without actually doing Your own, by just listening to like me or some other random guy on youtube, saying something just saying all right. Well, this guy is saying that i should buy uh tesla or whatever, so i'm going to go and buy tesla or this guy's like this.

The hottest stock of the week is is something else. Oh, i need to go and jump on that um. Please don't do that. That's the very, very fast path to a really bad place.

Um! So don't do that! Um, somebody's saying nice headphones mind a bit of an audio file, um! Well uh! I'm not that much of an audiophile i just had to buy some, because i i i destroyed my old ones by accidentally, um breaking the lead and i had to buy some new ones and i thought seeing as content creation and editing. Video and audio content is literally my job. I should probably get something better than a 20 handset that i used to have for a few years before that um. So these are pretty good uh he's pretty good, i'm pretty happy with them.

What else people saying um uh do you think uh robert is asking uh uh elon will elon will move twitter uh from the bay area, i'm not sure in the short term, i'd probably say definitely not in the long term, so for tesla moving to texas made A whole load of sense, because tesla's primary business is manufacturing, uh tesla's primary business is the machine that builds a machine right like like elon keeps referring to it. It's really important understands like like for any large-scale manufacturing company. It is not necessarily the product because the product you know everyone can go and make a really cool, looking ev or really cool concept. Car really interesting, but there's several reasons why concept cars don't make it to production concept products, don't make it to production, nothing even remotely close to what the concept is ever makes into production.

One reason is because the concepts often don't adhere to like the necessary requirements. The necessary testing the necessary approvals, whatever um. Another reason is because, like that, there might be sort of such theoretical concepts that they just don't like: they don't have enough features and things in the car that have to be then added to make them actually useful for people like beyond, just being less look at, But the third part - and this is the the really important part - is um - it's it's really difficult to manufacture things that are a bit different, that are a bit non-standard, where the parts are very, very different to what you know, the robots that exist and the production Lines that exist and everything else so so for a manufacturing company to have their hq somewhere, where the heart of that manufacturing is kind of makes a lot of sense. And it makes a lot of sense because i think, as they develop new ways of manufacturing vehicles.

In austin that will just spread to all the other factories where they can just go and replicate the same processes. The same manufacturing techniques and stuff like that makes sense for us to then be the biggest factory where they can go and innovate continually in the space. To then push it out to the factories, however, tesla still have all of their r and d uh. Well, not all a lot of their r d on the actual product cons, product side of things like the actual cars and everything else sitting in california and elon musk in some interview recently or somewhere.

I can't remember where it was in last few days. Um said that um they aren't going to be moving um, that part out of california and there's a good reason for that, which is, if you're, a tech business or like in certain other sectors as well, but um. Unfortunately, just the world has been built up over the last 30 years or so, where so much of the talent so much of the resource. So much of the revolving pool of people who have the deep expertise and all these different things just lives in the silicon valley in san francisco.

And so, if you want to go and pick up those people and continuously, you know these companies employ, like thousands and tens of thousands of people. If you want to go and be able to pick these people up, sure you probably could do it elsewhere and some other people do and, like you know, palencer is based in denver or something right in denver. I think i'm getting this right. Other people are based in other cities around around the us and the world or the pouncer is a bit more distributed, but you can't um my camera's off center.

What uh i i yeah. I i think when i do the cut ins, i need to fix that because i i haven't, updated my software since i've moved from my house to this office. So when i'm doing my little picture in picture, i'm a little bit off, i need to fix some of the software for that uh. I haven't uh quite sorted that out, but anyway uh which results out.

Yet they are not okay and it should be out in 32 minutes um, so uh. What are the other questions? Do you think, there's synergy between your link and twitter stream of consciousness for training yeah. I think i think, maybe in the far long term, i think, that's far far simpler far far smaller far far less sophisticated things, uh that need to be sorted out, twitter and i think neuralink before it can really be used for enhancing other businesses in that sort Of way, we're probably talking at least a decade uh, that's my opinion, um somebody's asking. This is a good question.

Why aren't you 100 in tesla, like many shareholders like me, if you think that's the best investment idea? There are several reasons i actually have a whole video. I have several videos on this on this topic really, but i have a whole video which is uh. Not many people have ever watched it, but it's called why you shouldn't ever go all in on one stock. I recommend you go and watch that it's really really interesting.

There are several different reasons, some that you may be aware of some, that you might not be aware of um one primary reason, and this is the same like with any company that you invest in if you invest in um just one stock. Even if you think that that is the stock that you have, i don't know like most certainty in or you feel, there's a huge upside and like a relatively low level of risk. The really important thing - and i made a video like yesterday about google and the day before about tesla, i'm gon na - be making a lot more of these valuation videos and the question i keep, even though i mentioned it in the video uh people still get very Confused and the the question that is overwhelming question is oh um like: when is your target price for? Is it for like this year? Is it for next year? Is it for 10 years, because my model goes out to 2031? Most people say: oh so that's your target price for 2031 or something like that, and it's really important to remember that a target price in the pure investing sense um for a fixed date in the future. It's a relatively meaningless thing, and so when i see people and i'm going to get a lot of slack for saying this, but let me just explain this: it is really quite a pointless thing to kind of have a target price.

Where you're saying my. I think the target price in 2031 will be x and the reason that that is a really pointless kind of thing is because, when you have a target price today, so when you think what is the fair value for the company today, that should be the sum Of all future cash flows that the business is expected to earn based on your valuation model or some kind of like range, depending on how you build your valuation model, um plus um, the the the the current balance sheet sort of difference between you know, debt and Current marketable assets and cash and stuff like right, like that's here, um as the basic uh way you value company, and when you go and value a company um, you should always be generally working on the present value of things. So when you go and say, okay, when i'm adding all these future cash flows, you're gon na go and then discount them today's value. So in reality, if you feel that your share price like if you try and talk about the share price in five years time and and you have confidence in the model that you have built for your share price today, then in theory that target price in five Years time should just be the current price ad when you add back the the the devaluation you've been sort of the discount rate that you've been reducing every year's revenues in the future to get them back today's date, because if the two are different, so if the Today's price, plus all the discounting back to five years or ten years time, if those two prices are different, then what you're saying is that you believe that the future cash flow is from the point in the future.

So the future cash flow is from five years out to the future, plus the the cash flows between now and five years are not the same as the sum of from now to the future right. So so you can see the discrepancy kind of saying. Okay, so my view is that um in five years time, i'm going to have a different like outlook and a different set of information to what i have today. But then my question is so: are you just guessing in that case right? So are you saying that in five years or in 10 years there will be things that we don't know now, which will mean that the share price will be like 40 000 for tesla, or something like that and like? Well? That's all good, but that's just like, like if you're not genuinely adding up.

So i understand if you're saying well. Today's share price, for me, is say fifteen hundred dollars, but when i add my 10 back, then it becomes like whatever like two thousand two hundred dollars in five years. Whatever the number is right, when you just go and like multiply it and up, but if your share price radically goes up, then either your current share price is undervaluing the long term future of the business like or your future price is wrong. The two can't coexist right, so one of them like i have to be wrong, so i always get confused when i see these people like people who talk about valuations of a business and they say well, today's valuation is x so like like like.

Why are they? Why are they different? Because i understand if you have a range and you're doing some kind of simulations where you're saying i have these different cases and, like my bare case, my bucket, whatever call them whatever you want um but yeah um. That's point number. One point number one for why you shouldn't invest in one company. Is that you don't like you can value a business.

You can say today. Tesla is worth nine hundred dollars in the market. However, i personally think because, like i don't think that, but i have a three 000 200 target on tesla um. However um somebody might say their target is 1500, whatever make up a number that you are happy with uh, maybe i'm like completely ridiculously stupid on that front.

Well, let's say you think it's 1500, then your expectation is that the current price is undervalued, but the very fact that today it is undervalued versus your expectation is an indicator that you don't know when a fair value for your. You know that matches your expectations. Maybe may may be reached, maybe it will reach it in three months time. Maybe it will never reach it.

Maybe uh it will take five years. Maybe you maybe will take 10 years. You don't know right so kind of sitting there going saying: oh okay, so um. So my like, so i feel that the fair target price is like 1500.

Therefore, i have an upside of like you know, 66 on my 900 current share price great, but you don't know when that's going to materialize - and this is this - is the crucial people saying. I think that the tesla share price is going to be x like so. What are you like able to predict exactly which way the market is going to move, in which case? Oh, my god, you are going to be a gazillionaire if you know exactly where the share price is going to move at any one particular point in time. Uh like that's magic.

I really really would like you to send me an email so that i can you know, partake in making a ridiculous amount of money. You'll be really really kind. Thank you for letting me in if you're, that kind of guy, but i'm not that kind of guy all i can do is i can say i know what the current price is. I know what i think a fair price is.

I have no idea when somebody was saying like when when when, like i don't know, it might never happen like it could be that the current value today is x. But then something happens in the next few years, where you know like the business stores, some projects. Don't work out, they get hit by legal suits, something else happens, blah blah, blah and bang like it, never materializes. This happens, and this will happen if you hold like companies portfolio.

This will happen so so point number one is even if you have a lot of faith in in a company the market may not share that faith with you. Other things can happen whatever it might take a long time. So if, if you are holding forever just that one business, it doesn't matter how good that business is like tesla was like growing percentage-wise, ridiculously um in the years leaguing up to 2019. But the share price did not do anything and it only started.

Moving like from 2019 really upwards and and you know, if you're investing during those four years, you could be saying yeah. I really believe in tesla, but you probably could have made a better return if you're invested in other things as well, um and in the long run sure it could play out. But companies have been known to be a really great investment prospect for a long period of time, but then kind of die off for whatever reason, and if, if you didn't materialize, your upside during that period before the company stalls or dies off or something else happens - Uh, you would not be very happy yourself, but there's an even more important point that um i explained in that other video. By the way, uh, we are going to be doing twitter results with um uh in in a short bit as and when they come out and we're going to go through the uh, the press release and the selected company, metrics and financials and whatever, whenever they come Out so um, but um here is a really important point that you might not have thought about.

Explain this much better in the video that i referenced like why you should never go all in on one stock, so check that out. But but but here's thing, let's say you invest in five different companies. You don't know when any one of those companies might hit your like theoretical, like upside. Let's say that you are perfectly right on your valuation of each of these companies, so you think that there are five different companies.

They each have like a hundred percent upside, but you don't know when the market might agree. Now, there's going to be a distribution like call it a normal distribution, maybe it's not! Maybe it's going to scoot in some shape, but there's going to be a distribution where there's going to be a mean. So like you're kind of saying like i'm here today, and i expect that maybe on average the market will take two years - let's say: they're - all identical companies and identical stages of growth in every way like they're the same you say on average, i think like it'll, Take two years for me to collect my upside that i think you know between the current value and the fair value, because the market needs to figure it out and they need to see earnings reports and blah blah blah blah blah. But there's going to be a distribution, so some companies might collect the upside for you sooner right closer to when you are, and some might take longer.

So there's like this bell curve and so you're kind of saying. Okay. So if you have five stocks, then if one of your stocks, for example, goes and collects the upside in the next six months, and you feel there's no longer a good reason to hold that company, because it is now fairly priced and you don't need to continue. Holding the stock, because you you don't feel there's any more upside to be had, then you can sell that one stock that is earlier in that bell curve and redistribute the money into the other positions, and so because of that distribution effect.

You don't know which of your stocks will shoot fast, maybe it'll be like amd. Maybe it's going to be google. Maybe it's going to be something you don't know um, and so, if that happens to any companies you can take that profit redistribute and the net effect. After, like say, 20 years, time of you continuously doing, that is far greater than just holding one company that performs the average, because you're picking up the the upsides earlier in the bell curve, moving it into the other ones and then again, you're waiting for the next Set of the next fast mover within your bell curve, so that's uh.

That's a really important uh reason that i think most people overlook. Most people, don't really talk about. I've, never heard anyone talk about it in a youtube video or something like that so um. This should be a video.

It is a video in itself simeon. It is uh called why you should never go within in one stock. I have a video on my channel uh that describes this in detail. So um there we go uh.

What are people saying? Next? 32 minutes or less results turn up yep. Sorry, okay, uh. What? What are people's thoughts on uh on on twitter? Are they gon na be doing uh better worse than expected? What is um? What is what is the i've? Not even looked it's kind of interesting because we're in a situation where this is probably one of the most anticipated one of the most interesting um set of results that are coming out in this earnings call, but also the one that, in the grand scheme of things, Doesn't matter at all, it's literally irrelevant pretty much. It is irrelevant uh what the results are gon na do, because at the moment we have the 54.20 at which elon musk is buying out all the shareholders.

Whenever the deal completes in six months time or or whatever it is um, then at the moment we're trading at 48 dollars. So we're trading at like a 10 ish uh off the price where people are saying: okay, well, there's a risk. The deal falls through and if it falls through, then it's gon na be bad news for twitter, because they're already moving towards you know that there's true social and potentially elon musk new platform. If the deal falls through, they would potentially like kill them off or or whatever um.

That's what people are kind of uh. Assuming is the risk for why the price is lower, but what we're saying is, then, if you take that small risk, like whatever the percentage factor like 10 20, that you think that the deal will not complete uh for twitter. If, if you take that risk, you you're then saying okay, uh um um. What if that deal doesn't complete? Will the outlook on twitter be worse because of these results when the deal doesn't complete because these results are below par and that again is like another small multiplier and a small multiplier.

So i think, like it's interesting, because in the grand scheme of things it's probably largely irrelevant what the results are. It's just more interesting what the wording is on in some of the commentary provided um, that's the bit that i'm going to be looking out for um. Certainly, however, we talked earlier in this video about, like the reasons why this deal might not come through. This deal might not come through for several other reasons.

Um reason number one. Let's say we have a big market crash uh that takes the current 12. Well, it's probably a bit more now, whatever it is, whatever the sell-off's been since the start of the year or since november, for some of the growth stocks. Let's say it gets worse.

Let's say we're at the start of like a very similar thing to what happened with the dot-com bubble, where it's bursting. We just don't quite know it. We know we're like 12 or 13 down or whatever it is um. But but let's say it continues going and let's say it accelerates, so we have a few bad days because you know inflation is going to be here next month.

We're going to be seeing another inflation report the month after we're going to be seeing another inflation report. Next week we have the rates announcement, which is now everyone's saying, is going to be 0.5, even though, a month ago, all the same experts were saying is definitely going to be 0.25 percent. I was saying that they will have to accelerate. They haven't got any choice and people were saying that um, i'm done for saying it, but it's clear that that is the case.

It's clear that this is happening um, but anyway, so we're going to be seeing all like every month. We're going to have like a couple of points during the month we're going to have jobs reports we're going to have retail price um updates we're going to have all these things coming out, which are going to remind the market that potentially things are not looking particularly Good right, so we're probably going to have a 0.5 increase in may then, two weeks later or 10 days later, whenever we're going to get the update on the march inflation numbers on the april and facial numbers and again the april inflation. Was everyone saying? Oh, the core inflation peaked and i'm looking at going. I don't, i don't see the evidence, i don't see the evidence for core inflation peaking or inflation peaking.

In fact, if anything, i think uh we're going to go to like nine percent plus potentially for april and people say: oh well, it's transitor, it's temporary because well you see oil price shut up and gas prices are shooting like we're at the end of april and Gas is looking gas just jumped up another twenty percent uh because of russia's uh blocked. A certain eastern european countries like this conflict doesn't look like it's going to abate anytime soon. The sanctions don't look like they're going away anytime soon. The infrastructure in european countries and other parts of the world for not using russian gas and oil are not there.

It will take many many years to replace those so um, so so, unfortunately, like we're going to get these reminders and they're going to shock the market overnight. So let's say the market continues going down and then, as part of that uh, some stocks, like maybe with higher pe ratios it like just let's say, tesla, goes and collapse. Somebody then the collateral that elon's raising with the banks. I kind of know about the specific deals like i've read the letters uh didn't study them in a huge amount of detail, but what? If the banks like have clauses in there that preclude them from being able to lend if tesla's share price collapses, because overnight of an overall market crash like if the market goes drops another 40 50, that would mean that you know the stocks like tesla should drop By more than the average right uh, so so, if that happens, because the in the next six months is going to be critical for all of that uh unraveling, you know that's a risk.

There's a risk um that um something happens with twitter, with truth, social suddenly or some other platform coming aboard like something where elon musk goes and reprioritizes and changes his mind. Uh, probably very very low risk um, but it's also the risk that the competition authority won't like the fact that elon musk is going to be owning the town square, um uh, you know you know. Elon musk is not on best terms with the us government and joe biden and people like that and although they're probably not gon na, take uh things out of hand, and you know make decisions that maybe people would question as to whether they're personal vendettas or whatever. But it's there's a likelihood.

Uh we've seen more crazy things happen. We've seen the existing president kicked off twitter uh. You know we were talking about before, like things can happen like where suddenly they'll go and turn around and say. No sorry, you can't you can't own it because uh that that place is undue amount of influence into like uh one person ownership.

You have to keep the company public, i don't know there can be a oh. Thank you so much juan. I really really appreciate it. That's going to buy me a whole load of, and carlos wow look at this.

Thank you so much for both of you. I really really appreciate it that is going to buy me a whole lot of builder teeth, probably like several months worth. Um, the water is free um, so my last bit of free water, but now i'm gon na be drinking tea like no tomorrow, now that i have all this money to buy tea with. So thank you really appreciate it.

Okay um in the u.s, a problem with deciding when to sell and dispute is short-term capital gains tax tax, much higher rate yeah um yeah. I was uh fair, very good point in the us uh. This is different to many other european countries, uh and some other countries, and that is an issue i was using a very a very simplified example.