What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, i appreciate you guys tuning in with me this morning. What we're going to do today is something slightly different, we're going to take a look at tesla and the reason we're going to do. That is because this morning they had a very explosive move pre-market. Last night they had an earnings announcement, so today there's going to be a lot of eyes on it, it's a very popular stock.

So i figured i would go over that and now the way that we're going to go over. That is by looking through my chat rooms, message board and the reason we're going to do. That is because there's a really good flow in the chat that will help. You understand how i go about building a trading thesis or a plan on the spot when something is moving like tesla, and so it should give you a really good understanding of just kind of how you might go about building a plan for a trade or foreign Analysis or how to make a thesis, if you may, on the spot, so really good information, and then we will jump into the overall market, the spine, the nasdaq and close it out and send you guys on your way for the day, all right.

So, let's pop up uh, this chat room wherever it's at right. There we go okay, so i'm gon na just basically go up to all the important parts from when we first kind of start mentioning tesla, so anyways um, one of our members here bakata, a good friend of mine, good trader, had mentioned something about tesla, i'm like Yeah tesla has a big weekly level coming up at 10 57.. So right, if i go into this picture here, you can see this is a watered-down version of that system, blah blah blah, but you see that zero yw that line right there. Okay, that line is this line.

You see here on the right where my cursor is at now that line right there, it's the same thing see, but this charts on a one minute time frame. This is on a four hour time frame. So when sending this picture into the chat room and talking to my friend vacata trader - and i hope i'm saying that name right - i always that's just the way i pronounce it in my mind. So that's the way it comes out verbally, uh anyways, so sent this picture and the reason i sent this one is because it's a longer term chart - and it only has one line so very simple focal point.

It's that line right there over under over under over under that's a big level coming up, and i think that's what i mentioned: tesla weekly coming up at 10 57 for now big level, yeah, okay! So now, let's continue down um, just some more fun. Joking around okay, so um here you will see in this picture. We hit the zero line, the weekly line, okay and now that we've gone into a one minute time frame you're, seeing a line here, a line here and a line here, and that's because the way that i have all that set up on my screen is that When i go into smaller time frames and i'm more zoomed in i am then proposed - or i am shown more probability - levels that can be of importance uh throughout the trading session or whatnot. So you can see here in the tax tesla just hit.

The weekly level discussed a bit ago, 1070. 10.73. Is the next target up on acceptance above 10.57? All right, so you can see as soon we go from sorry just uh just a bit ago from hey big level coming up 10. 57, all right to the next one being we just hit the 10 57 next target up is 10.73 all right.

So look at the text. 1073. Is the next target up on acceptance above 157? The reason i say acceptance is because you don't always know for sure. Just at that moment that we're going to go to 1073.

a lot of times, you're going to pull back here, you might fight a little bit, but you need some buying. You need something to hold you over 1057, some sort of buying a candlestick formation, whether it's just volume, candlestick formation, wicks, just just anything in general that can convince you or give you the confidence or what not to determine it's been accepted right or we're breaking out Or, however, you want to say it, but for me it's acceptance right. So if we can see we're getting acceptance, good volume and things over 1057, then that opens the door for a move to 10.73. All right, if you look over here, we end up hitting a high of 1080.

You can see i 1073 right here, so we kind of popped over and then broke below that level, a little bit so a lot of volatility. That would probably be the main reason why 1073 did not act as resistance perfectly. This is such a volatile move, so much momentum that we don't respect it fully, but we kind of do respect it in general, which is just we get to that same price point. You can see we pop out and then we come right back down under that one um, so anyways.

So that's what we call 1073 55 there so 1073 next check it out on acceptance over okay and here's another picture here you can see as soon as we hit that level. We get two red candles right. It actually kind of pops over and swings under, and even i say this is what you would call no acceptance right and then, shortly after you can see that candle ends up closing above and we start to break upwards. And at this point you can start to be long, biased or think about being long, biased with say um.

You know, and really it could be like stops below 10.57 and the reason i say that is because if this move is actually going to work, the market will sustain over 1057., because 1057 here is the statistical breakpoint. That is why you saw this wedge pattern like this break upwards and immediately go to 1057 in that candle. So you see how this candle breaks up over all this previous price action level and goes straight to statistical probability levels. And then you see two red candles.

It's not like it jumped up and went all the way to 10.73 and the reason it didn't do. That is because, before going to 1073, you had the weekly level. So you pop out of the flag pattern test, the weekly get a little pullback and the market just instantly goes back over. At that point, you could probably say: okay, probably getting some acceptance above this right.

So if you're long, you would just basically be stopped below 10 57, which would be okay. Are we breaking below 1057 holding below acceptance back below, meaning we don't want to break out et cetera, et cetera, all right. So, that's why you get that flag pattern to break to that level, get two little red candles that pull you back before moving higher all right, so we'll continue down here. I believe there might be a little more.

There might not be and um yeah all right. So this is actually something you should uh read right here, um i'll, take out some of that all right. So now we're into this chart. Okay, i'm gon na delete these lines uh and actually, before i delete it, you see how this just pushed back up to almost that 1073 and we're kind of pushing back down.

It's not a perfect example, but uh. What i'm getting at is this right here, this red line, it's matched up with this level, that's 1073.55, so 1073 55 would be the target on a successful full move breakout from here. Now again, we didn't have to go to 1073. Like this, we could have pushed up, pulled back and chilled and then pushed up again and pulled back and took all day to get there all right.

The concept is as soon as you think you get some acceptance above 10 57. You could be long biased up to 10.73, okay and it could take 10 minutes five minutes all day right, but that's the concept so um, since it's so volatile, so much momentum. It happens right away in the beginning of the day morning, pre-market all right. So if you look at this line here, 1073 right, that was the target many times you could do short sales around this level after running from here.

All the way to here, you could probably expect a pullback is going to happen, and the reason that pullbacks did not happen here here here here here here is because there's truly no statistical reason probability for it to have resistance right so same reason that you had A little pullback here is because you broke out into a statistical probability level. When you had 1, two three one minute candles pull back and then you just went bullish all the way. Until here you had one red candle as you got near 1073 and then you broke above it, and then we end up coming back down all right, so this level did not hold almost perfectly like this one at first, when you first first saw that pull back Right, you didn't hold immediately like that now. The rationale for me behind that is because it's just such a strong move, there's so much momentum when that's happening levels, don't quite respect as well right because you may be getting um newer traders participating in the market that think this is still a good buy.

When reality is you're right on a statistical level, that could very well be resistance, but they don't know they don't care, so they keep buying right. So someone with more knowledge, like me, goes man really they're, not respecting my level and then shortly after it gets back down under it right and that's kind of the concept so um you will have moments and times where levels don't hold perfectly. If there's a lot of momentum, um and volatility, and that's just kind of one of those things where your knowledge and experience has to fill that gap there right in the unknown, if, if you may so a good example of the volatility factor, not respecting levels, would Be something like netflix uh yesterday, so if you look at netflix right, you can see where the market bottom same is the netflix concept right. This thing just had so much steam and momentum coming down that it just oh and here's.

Another good example remember how we were talking about acceptance above the 10 57 price on tesla then run to 1073.. That same concept applies here with the 255 oops sorry, the same concept applies with the 255 god damn it. I am terrible, get it together, sporty mcspice. All right right, there, 10, 55..

Well, it's actually! 10. 55.. Now you say all right anyway, it doesn't matter 1055 and then you have the 238 down here right. So if you think about the same thing, we're just talking on tesla but apply it to netflix, it would be okay guys.

If you start getting acceptance below that's below the 255 256, then you open up the door for the possibility of a move to 10 38. Okay, if you break 10 38, you open up the door for a move, in this case to 224 all the way, arguably down to whatever price that would be like 219, okay, so same concept as tesla get acceptance below you might see the market swing to the Next probability, level down right - and this move from here to here is the same thing or same approach, same idea as to this move from this line to that line from probability to probability when there's more momentum, there's a greater chance of probability level gets broken above A bit if it's going upwards and then maybe falls back down okay and when looking at netflix. If the momentum is so strong on the downside - and you don't seem to find any buyers at your probability level, then there's a good chance. It can continue down - and in this case it's just so much momentum down.

It breaks this one breaks that one breaks this one before finally going up doing a higher low on one of them and then pushing up to the next ones. So now that i'm on netflix and i'm just on a roll here, you guys go look at this uh. So these are. You know it takes time to learn all this and - and even i still don't know at all, but you know i do.

Okay, so anyways um, so yeah i mean watch this. When we look at the volume all the the biggest volume buy candles will in the downtrend will probably start around the probability level a lot of times. That will happen. So if we just kind of go to here right, you see those two green candles and they kind of happen at that green line.

And then we go look at the volume it should be, or is it right here? I think it starts right about there into there, so you can kind of see. I mean there was a goodbye one here, but for the most part, we're red red red red red and then we kind of pick up and buy there right and then, when you go all the way down again you get to this probability level. You will see. We pop two green candles and you look straight down and i think it's it should be right there yeah into these ones right there.

You see you go back to two big green bars, okay and then you sell down to this one here next, one next one and you get below probability levels and then the buy volume finally really steps in and we push up now. Let me zoom into this um, that's just kind of helped point out some extra stuff with volume all right, and now we go into here with uh netflix, so anyways. You know this sells off all day. All right! You can see.

We push up right. So so you got to remember too every time a level breaks right, so we broke down going back up. If the trend is meant to stay down, it will typically hold below and then continue pressing in that direction. That's what creates your troughs and your valleys and your peaks right a lot of times, but in this case we're we're not that weak here we do have buyers.

So it's just a quick pullback that ends up making a higher low off of the probability level here, and you just basically go on an uptrend. Now the uptrend goes until when all right, the uptrend goes until this bounce gets to where the next probability level up. Okay, once you get there sell down, sell down, then someone probably traded a flag pattern which broke it over briefly back under down boom right, and you can see the trend line that many people would draw. So if we do that right, here's your lower bound price action trend line right, something like that.

I don't know: let's just do it like this or one like this right. Okay, so there's your lower bound price action trend line. Okay here would be sort of. If you did a channel right, here's your upper bound price action trend line right.

So where does the top begin right off? The deviation off the deviation off? Well that one broke over and then back under right, which happens to be the break of the trend line right so think about it like that. So when you draw a trend line like this price action trend line up you go, go, go, go, go and then right when it snaps. It's also what the statistical probability level. So this would be a breakdown right, so you were holding below holding below popped over.

Then broke back below, so that's a break down. This would be your retest of that breakdown, which arguably breaks out again, and you can see we go back under and retest for the breakdown and then we fade where, from probability level to the probability level, all right. So that's enough of that and now we're going to hop into the market, give you guys some insight on that good stuff. So i'm going to start here on the spy all right um, so we're going to go to 180 day 4 hour chart here.

It's 9. 13. By the time you guys watch this. It's probably going to be slightly too late, because i went very in-depth on this one, but that was fun so anyways um yeah.

I guess this is the full-blown system we're kind of looking at, but it doesn't matter all right, so last breakout on the spy was here that was, that was the last like real breakout. Okay, so market is a little extended from its last breakout. Okay, the next breakout that i see on the spy and that will change when it comes to the nasdaq so on so forth. But the next break out on the spy is going to be over 4, 4, 49, 63 and that's probably going to change.

But just basically call it 450., so 450 is going to be your next breakout. Why? Because if you get over 450, that means you've gotten over this line and that line that would be a break up, and then, at that point, just like the tesla example longer time frame. If we can gain acceptance above these two levels, right pretty much stay above them, then that opens the door for a push to 456. and look over the 456 markers at 456.65.

Go left previous top. Okay makes sense. You see how most of these statistical levels are. Always lined up with the previous top right.

So where are these statistical levels well, they're lower now, but previous tops kind of concept, all right, so um anyways with that being said, spy right now we're kind of coming in some slight resistance. Around the 448 72 uh 449 area, looking at a five-day five-minute chart when we zoom in you, can kind of see and actually go to a five-day one minute, you'll be able to see how the market is holding some resistance here, all right so five-day one-minute chart. Look at pre-market top down top down up down back under down right, so you can see it's pretty much. Holding around that line, so concept here is in the event, you see a long move today break out upside four four nine six, three with the first target up, not really trying to go much higher than that.

Why? Because you're, not you don't want to be the one trying to buy this up super high to break it out to gain acceptance. If the market allows for acceptance great, but you're not going to want to be the participant trying to give it that acceptance right. So today, really not looking too much longer than 449.63 on the spy um. I guess you could say even a max target for me would be like 451 per se.

I think what i'm more interested in today is the nasdaq as opposed to the spy and the reason i say that is because the nasdaq hasn't yet broken out and i think we're waiting on the nasdaq and the nasdaq is what will end up breaking out and Then creating a rip across the whole market, so you could argue say kind of that whole tech, it doesn't matter and that exactly needs to catch up all right. So we go look at this 180 day four hour chart here. I know there's some lines here and there's some things blocking the candle, but this is pretty much an inverse head and shoulders pattern right. So you have an inverse head and shoulders pattern formation taking place.

Okay, does it break out the day? Does it go? I have no idea, but the concept is the reason that an inverse head and shoulder pattern is forming like this is because you broke down, went to probability levels you bounce back up to probability levels. That's what created the resistance down right, bounce back to probability, level, bounce back up, create resistance down. Now you create a low peaking head right, hit a probability level still bounce up to recent probability level and that's what you're creating now the shoulder? Okay. So these statistical levels are creating this price formation, and we know the next breakout would be over this resistance, which really just means we need to gain acceptance above this probability zone of 346.28.

While most of you guys not you guys that sounded really douchy, i apologize, but just while most participants in the market, i would assume - and i know so because when i look at people's youtube videos and charts, they don't run anything similar, which is okay. There's a million with different ways to skin a cat that concept so anyways, you can see um you or someone may be thinking, okay when we get over say 348 the market's going to pop, which arguably yes, that's that's completely true, but i'll be looking down here. At 346.28 for any signals and acceptance and signs, because i know that this is where the market needs to get above right and so i'll show that to you when we go to a five day, five minute or even a five day, one minute you can see Right, we have gone into it, shy of it down hit it smacked, got to it. Yesterday pre-market broke out back under right, and now we are creeping back to it here.

So what happened? Was we had a lot of sellers here, sellers and sellers holding it down, though we're up you get through here? That's where you can get a little rippy rippy? Okay, so you want to look for not necessarily breaks of 348. You do want the brakes at 348. Right, but you really want to look for some acceptance above 346.28 on the nasdaq holding above and then that's going to open up the door for the move all the way to not 348. Okay, remember the reason that you're getting resistance at 348 is because the statistical probabilities were there see in the past.

You see how the stair steps down. So in the past this probability level was higher, which created the top here at 348: okay, okay, so in the past we had the probability level say a little lower somewhere around here right, so that's creating the top at 348 and then as we go downward and Downtrend the probability levels adjust to a lower base trend down all right, so now run it horizontally across and your lines here, and so that's why we create a top here instead of all the way up here now. So that's why this top from here to here is slightly lower okay and so anyways. We pop up.

We try to break out yesterday back under okay, so the same people that were selling here selling here selling here selling here the same people are selling there. Arguably, okay, so that is why the tops get a little lower. So, while you're looking at a 348 move, because that would clear all of the resistance tops that your eye can see. What i would be looking at is what created the resistance tops.

Is this line, and this line is no longer up here? Sorry, this line is no longer up here. This line is now here. Acceptance above this would push it to here. We would break that and then we would go straight up to 349.85 349.36.

So yes, in the event we see some strong momentum continue and we actually break out you'll be looking for a 346 28 acceptance move up to the 349 350 zone. Okay. So if you're looking at this, actually that's enough - i could go on for days, but uh anyways. That was fun.

I hope you guys enjoyed it. Let me get this posted and i'll catch. You guys uh next time around.