Donald Trump Just had a few Choice words for Jerome Powell Let's take a look at what Donald Trump said on the same day that Mike Wilson is apparently stepping down as one of the Chief Investment Officers over at Morgan Stanley in that research. Department Somewhat surprising to see one of the biggest bears over at Morgan Stanley stepping down from his post. But for now, let see what happens to J Pow under a trump. This leads me to the economy.

Mr President because J Powell the Chairman is talking about a soft Landing Do you believe we will see a soft Landing Well, I think he's uh, going to do something to probably help the Democrats you know I think if he lowers interest rates. but you have the potential of having massive inflation again because the Middle East could drive up the price of energy. you know energy has so much to do with it. and the Middle East Again, the bombs are dropping all over the place and the ships are starting to get hit and hit hard.

Uh, if that happens, you're going to have tremendous spikes in the the price of oil. And if you do that, you're going to have big inflation. He's not going to be able. It's It's worth noting that right now, the opposite has actually been happening now.

Part of that may be because of a Slowdown in China Yes, strikes in the Middle East are occurring. Strikes are also occurring in the Red Sea Donald Trump is absolutely correct about both of those things. We do have turmoil in the Middle East. We just had another French carrier this morning refuse to tr Transit through the Red Sea This adds about 30% to shipping time, but throughout all of this drama, oil prices have been relatively stable Ian Don't get me wrong, they move up and down on the daily basis.

But consider this: we've really had an escalation of oil related Uh tensions uh Middle East Tensions Uh, tensions around Uh Syria uh Iran Yemen and other oil producing Nations since about November Well, we've actually found is oil prices today are lower than they were around Thanksgiving where they were around 83 bucks a barrel and now we're sitting at about 77 so we really haven't seen that yet. Nor is it necessarily clear that inflation in Uh commodity prices like oil is definitely going to lead to more. Consumer Price Inflation Michelle Bowman of the Federal Reserve actually just came out and argued that the biggest risk we actually have is that the rebalancing of the labor market slows. We go back to a really tight labor market where everybody's hiring again because everything's booming and then you end up with a potential Revival of services inflation so not necessarily commodity driven here.

consider the fact that we just had retaliatory strikes on Syria and Iraq targets there, especially some of the targets being used as military bases by Uh supporters or Fighters for Uh Iran this all in retaliation for the Tower 20 two attack that killed three Americans and wounded 34 12 of them. Critically, this was an enemy drone. The Wall Street Journal Reported that the Drone was actually spotted by American troops, but it was unclear whether it was a Us or enemy drone. And because of the confusion, the Drone ended up striking a living quarters Barracks area uh where troops were and the Biden Administration retaliated just today.

It did take not the 30th, not the 31st, not the first. It did take 4 days to retaliate, but we did get that retaliation on Uh, paramilitary forces and different parts of Syria and uh Iraq Of course Iran denied involvement in this, but again, despite us knowing that these strikes were coming, no movement yet in oil prices. So I do have to separate from Trump there a little bit. oil price is not the best argument.

I Think it's more relatable though, right? Because we hear yes, oil prices will have a big impact on inflation just like that by line there. Well, of course we think that it just hasn't been happening. So it's sort of the expectation versus reality issue here. Able to do anything, but it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe, uh, getting people elected.

I don't know. So you think he's political? he's just going to cut rates to help Biden I Do I Do I think he's political? Yeah, So I mean the Biden team can say well, if they, which is really interesting because the uh Federal Reserve has really been gearing up for rate Cuts here in 2024 for quite a while. there was that maybe it' be in March maybe it'll be may, maybe it'll be June But yeah, it it is. It is going to align with being essentially right before the election is part of it.

Or could the magnitude of these Cuts be related to political? Absolutely 110% and quite frankly Donald Trump I mean let's be real Donald Trump saying I'm a fire Powell Powell's going to hear this. it's kind of going to be like H do I want to get fired Uh, you know, because if uh, if I get fired, somebody else might come in. That might do a worse job ruin the whole reputation I set up Donald Trump's aggression against Powell here could actually potentially motivate even more Cuts Things are so bad. How come the stock markets on a roll? Because they think I'm going to be elected? that you think the stock market's rallying because people think you're going to yeah if you take a look at Iowa if you take a look at New Hampshire The stock market's been going crazy since then and and long before then.

When I when I announced I was running, I took the lead early and then I beat everybody including Run D Santis I call him D Santis now I took the other names Mr President Back to the economy for a second. Would you reappoint? Jay Powell I No. I wouldn't do that. You wouldn't reappoint him.

No, uh because he missed inflation? Uh, he did Miss Uh, he did Miss But no I wouldn't be in CL Who's your choice for Fed Chairman? I would I would have a couple of choices I Can't tell you now. Okay, let me let me get your take on on this. Uh, Central Bank Digital currency. You've pledged to block a potential Central Bank Digital currency.

Is that about? Sur Before we hit Cbdc. let's just quickly knock this out of the way. The stock market usually does try to price in about 18 months ahead, So is it possible the stock market is in part pricing in a trump? Yes, But it could also equally be possible the stock market is trying to price in a democratic government that is more supportive of basically inflationary spending. which is somewhat what's going on right now in terms of supporting manufacturing, chips, green energy, whatever who knows could be either of them.

Right now, it seems like we are clearly on an artificial intelligence role. Let's see what we've got in terms of Cbdc surveillance. It's very dangerous. It's very dangerous.

One day you don't have any money in your account. It can be a very dangerous thing. And the other thing that I think is maybe the most dangerous thing out there of anything because there's no real solution. the AI as they call it it is so scary.

I Saw somebody ripping me off the other day where they had me making a speech about their product. I said I never Endor that and I'm telling you, you can't even tell the difference. It looks like I'm actually scary I AG because you can get that into Wars and you can get that into other things. Something has to be done about this and it has to be done fast and nobody really knows what to do.

The technology is so good and it's so powerful that what you say at an interview with you almost do doesn't matter anymore. They can. They can change things around and nobody can tell the difference. Even experts can't tell the difference.

This is a tremendous problem in terms of security. This is a problem that they better get working on right now. Yeah, no kidding. Well uh.

deep fakes? certainly? Uh, not uncommon. We just saw Taylor Swift searches get banned on X because there were so many deep fakes of Taylor Swift without any clothing clothing on. So pretty wild time that we're in. But let's be clear.

Drum Powell Getting fired. A lot of people are very frustrated about Drum Powell because they were late on inflation. Way too much money printing. Absolutely true, we had way too much inflation.

The question now is is the right answer to keep rates High Just to not appear political? Maybe see see Trump We didn't cut rates. How can we be political? We didn't cut rates. but then of course Trump might turn around and say, hey, y'all should have cut rates y'all cause joblessness. Although I'll tell you not after today's Jobs report.

Man, today's Jobs report was a blow up. But look. Donald Trump Saying he's not going to reappoint Powell I Think if anything is, uh, already somewhat predicted by Powell Remember Trump Almost fired Powell Back in 2018, it wasn't even clear if that was possible. The FED is supposed to be politically independent.

So will some politics get incorporated into Uh Powell's uh. decisionmaking here? Maybe because you might end up getting the whole fed getting gutted and replaced by other people, right? as? hopefully things are supposed to start balancing out again. Who knows though, maybe they'll end up losing control over these next few months. Kathy Wood is of the mindset: the Fed: this Fed has already gone way too far and that they should be cutting rates substantially already at this point.

Otherwise, they would risk massive inflation. Guess we'll have to see. But when it comes to Donald Trump Donald Trump and Ho are a nogo, Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much.

People love you people. look up to you. Kevin PA there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, real estate broker and becoming a stock broker. This video is neither personalized Financial Advice nor real estate advice for you.

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