Hey everyone kevin here, so i want to give two updates that i thought were really really incredible about this week and going forward uh, so one's gon na be looking into the past a little bit one's gon na be looking forward a little bit. Yeah keep in mind, though this video is brought to you by extra and, of course, my programs on building your wealth, both linked down below coupon code, expires on monday. Okay, let's get into this so uh. The first thing is looking back so when russia invaded ukraine that morning we saw some of the lowest prices in the stock market and guess what actually, according to retail, tracking data and vandertrak, guess what actually spawned or spurned the market to start going positive retail trading Retail trading exploded in the first two hours of that morning and after that and the sort of uh next kind of 70 of the day.

That's when the institutions came in and started buying, so really interesting. To know that retail was the one who led the reversal out of that bottom uh just a couple days ago, quite wild. I thought that was sort of a fun fact, but i do like talking about the future a lot more. So let's talk about the future.

So look there are a lot of people right now making videos about how uh or we're gon na have all this substantially more inflation because of increased commodity prices, and this is bad and look uh i've, but my whole inflation world is well my whole world. I should say is surrounding inflation, because i study this every day. Uh i've obviously migrated from camp transitory over to okay, it's not that transitory. Now, because then we talked about this yesterday, video because of the russia, ukraine situation.

We know the fed's likely to be a little more dovish, be a little more patient, wait for more data to see if aggregate demand moves down. If aggregate demand moves down, then inflation moves down, but, more importantly, for this video there's a lot of talk about how uh commodity prices increasing and skyrocketing. Because of the incursion in ukraine uh that we might see the substantial increase in inflation and that not only that, but maybe you should quickly flee and invest in uh things like commodities. Specifically, we saw a wheat skyrocket somewhere around uh 15 to 20 percent.

On the day of the incursion natural gas in europe, spiked like 60 percent, it was insane, but something that's really interesting is much like how the stock market bottomed when commodities peaked uh all of these commodities have started. Turning almost have started. Turning red uh after the the incursion started literally in the last two days we have seen. Obviously we've already seen oil prices come down.

Remember we hit 105 dollars a barrel. We were down to like 98.99, somewhere there now and quite frankly, frankly for brenton, it's probably going to go back under 95 uh if it isn't already right now, uh and uh. We saw aluminum and nickel some of these uh metals, specifically with exports tied to ukraine. Skyrocket, but all of them act well, with the exception of aluminum aluminum's, still staying a little strong aluminum's are three percent, but otherwise uh you've got uh coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugar, uh wheat.

All of these coming down natural gas oil commodities are actually falling again in prices, and this is a good sign. It's a good sign that maybe we potentially hit peak commodity fear which, to some degree commodities can serve as a safe haven. Uh. Remember that when we have uncertainty in markets, people flee to safe haven assets, which would be things like bonds, treasury bonds, uh precious metals like gold and uh and, of course, uh commodities.

Often because when there are disruptions people assume. Oh, my gosh. Well, commodities are going to go to the moon uh. I mean obviously lumber's been going to the moon like crazy, but there's actually a bigger thesis right now around commodities that that trades over that we've hit peak commodity fear and combined with potentially a uh a more dovish fed.

Maybe we hit a peak at commodities and making bets on commodities right now might not actually be the best thing to do. In fact, this is why i'm making more bets well, first of all, uh the morning of the incursion i sold gold literally at market open, because i'm like okay, the the incursion's happening. This is likely gon na be peak, fear sure enough. It was uh.

I took my profits on gold: seventy something thousand dollars which i've honestly never traded gold, but i love that and um. Of course, i always talk to horse members about this but uh, but then moved into those higher margin, growth style tech names with profit. Very very important right now, but there are a lot of folks speculating on commodities and i want to leave off with one more thing. I do quickly, though, want to just shout out extra uh.

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So it's as if you had a credit card and you're paying a credit card every single month actively and building your credit score, we're actually using a debit card, so check that out, mykevin.com. But anyway, the most important thing here is is to keep in mind. Commodity booms tend to come in massive cycles. Uh they come in these super cycles, where commodities just go ridiculous and there's a lot of enthusiasm, especially around on lithium and nickel, cobalt.

You know the ones related to electric vehicles, especially with gold prices going up people like oh my gosh ev's, going to the moon right. It's one of the reasons infants also kind of went to the moon this last week because you know when, when oil prices go high, people like oh, my gosh uh, let's, let's get into renewables which makes sense, but i want to warn, i think, that's short lived. I think there's a better opportunity not to go all in here. Okay, so yesterday i mentioned that i'm buying stocks again some people like flip flopping again, you can't make up your mind.

No, no. I move with the data. As the data changes i make changes, i'm only about 40 42 invested in the market right now, the rest cash and that's because i do believe we have plenty of elements of uncertainty coming especially around what is the fed actually going to do? I'm leaning towards them now after this incursion them going dovish and some people think i'm crazy, they're like why would they go dovish? They need a paul volcker. Us look, i i agree.

I think they need to somewhat at least like suitor paul uh pseudo paul vocross, like give us some shock at all. Give us a 50 basis. Point hike, raise rates to one percent come on, that's still ridiculously accommodated, but they won't do it because they have this. This thing now that they're promising everyone that they're going to communicate everything much more clearly uh and and through this increased communication they're trying to focus on let's just do 25 basis point hikes over and over and over again, which is fine, they might do nine uh.

You know over the next uh you know year and a bit here, uh and that might be priced in, but any kind of shock there'll be fear of that shock, but i think those are going to be buying opportunities, so i'm marking my buying. First of all, i'm staying away from commodities right now, uh, you know, cryptocurrencies are gon na trade, just like tech stocks, in my opinion, uh, but you wan na watch for buying opportunities, uh and fear around the next cpi reports. We get higher than expected inflation, which honestly, i believe everywhere - everybody's raising uh wages, much more uh. We just had a logistics company.

Somebody who worked at a logistics company come to us and they said uh yeah, so we used to raise wages, uh and and therefore weight raised prices. Uh every you know, maybe six months or something would make a little adjustment now he's like now, because so many costs are increasing. We're raising prices every single week just to keep up and you're seeing prices get raised everywhere. It's pretty ridiculous, so the inflation is real and i do think we're under reporting it.

I just think we're we're going to have this fed now, especially because of the ukraine issue. I think that really puts a damper and people don't believe me on this, but i really believe that this puts a damper on the fed being aggressive uh, which was a very real risk up until about well a week ago, uh and - and so in my opinion - That means look for those opportunities to buy under this 200-day moving averages, keep in mind the qqq. We had a beautiful bottom here, double bottom uh, we bottomed out on january 24th and we bottomed out uh again just a couple days ago. But if you look the s p 500 bottomed out around a similar level slightly lower qqq has been nothing but straight down.

So if you're in tech or profitless tech, you know this last uh, this last low was lower and there are still risks in 2022, where we could go even lower. So i i don't want to say: that's it you got to just flip. All in you know start pulling that margin, ah be careful. I don't think you lose being patient in this market.

Be careful speculating on commodities the people talking about how commodities are going to create all this inflation and stuff. I i don't think they're looking at the commodity charts, because they're they're all turning red already uh the prices are coming straight down yeah and i would not be surprised. Actually. This could happen too.

We could see a uh commodities crash and this com a commodities crash. Ironically, do the opposite? We get a big commodities crash. What happens well now, all of a sudden, the market's going to start pricing in oh, my gosh. This means chips are going to be cheaper.

Evs are going to be cheaper, everything's going to be cheaper to make go long on stocks. You want to be ahead of that curve, so you want to see that curve happening watch commodities. Even if you don't invest in commodities, i'm not a commodities expert as well, but i'll tell you this cycle, especially with pandemic and war. My pandemic cycle was sober uh.

You want to be paying attention commodities all right thanks. So much for watching check out the programs use that coupon code expiring on monday evening and as always check out mykevin.com extra and thank you to our sponsor thanks folks, bye.