Back to another market open a livestream today we have a lot to talk about very much to talk about this, so much news today. It's not too good uh, but, most importantly folks today is the eve of the federal reserve. It actually does begin today, but it's for all intents and purposes the eve of the meeting, because we won't hear about the results of the meeting until tomorrow, uh when we have at uh 11 a.m. Pacific time tomorrow.

The release of the federal reserve statement in terms of what they're doing are they raising rates? Are they not? What are they doing? Obviously, right now, the market is pricing in the likelihood of a 50 basis, point hike, which is a half point hike. We do expect that the federal reserve will give us some guidance on their newfound glorious intention of wanting to be more aggressive up front than than sort of wait and see and be data dependent and slowly and steadily. Raise rates. Slow and steady was supposed to be.

Like 2004, where rates were going up at a clip of about a quarter of a percent 17 times in a row uh from from essentially uh near zero rates to uh, like you know, four to five percent uh. But the point is the federal reserve has kind of you turned on that idea. Thinking wait a minute. You know inflation's, so hot we should maybe stop being behind and uh and front load the rate hikes right, uh and that could because of the uncertainty of.

What's actually going to happen today, uh and tomorrow, at the federal reserve meeting that could lead to uh the the most pain uh in in markets. That's exactly at least what happened uh on the or right before the march meeting we hit bottom on the nasdaq march 14th, the day of the federal reserve, meeting and kind of took off and rallied uh, with with nearly a 10 move in the nasdaq right. After the meeting the two weeks after the meeting were the best i mean we rallied right through inflation reports, new data we rallied through everything we took it all in stride, and so this is where a lot of folks were wondering yesterday, hey kevin, why was it That yesterday and i have a thesis for this that connects to the fed, why was it that yesterday, towards like the last hour of the day, all of a sudden, the nasdaq just took off what happened the last hour of the day, to say that oh well, During the entire day, we're just bleeding out take a look at the chart here you can see that bleed out. This is the five minute right here uh, and so you could see us throughout most of the day getting rejected and then bleeding out into the end of the day.

It was really the last hour almost on the dot, the last 60 65 minutes on the dot that we really started rallying. Why is this? What could potentially be leading to this sort of rally? I believe this is what's known as trader front running trader front running is when you expect that the market is going to do something. So, rather than wait for that to happen, you start positioning and you start positioning purchases uh into the nasdaq or or technology related stocks, and you do that sort of front running, because you potentially expect this sort of repeat right here where you get a bottom on The day of the fomc meeting, and then we get that two-week rally thereafter, that kind of front running uh could have led the market to make its outsized move yesterday, especially since we had deviated so far by about 10. You know 10-ish points on the qqq uh.

More like eight points, but anyway uh from from the zero percent fib line like we're under it right, that's scary, you break under it. It's bad, so we'll see what happens this morning, but it wouldn't actually be a surprise for us to see some of potentially. If we're going to have a rally like this moved up to today, uh and become really a day or a day and a half early, unless of course you know, the meeting just goes to crap, which is always possible uh and, and then things go worse now. What would define the federal reserve meeting tomorrow going to crap? Well, look: here's here's what we already know! We already know that jerome powell is not going to play the 2004 game he's listening to james bullard, who says we should be hiking like it's 1994, where we had larger hikes 50 basis.

Point hikes 75 basis points were much more uh reminiscent of 94, and so that's why they're coming up in discussion today that okay, well, maybe maybe what we should do, is we should get to neutral as soon as possible, raise rates to neutral and uh and maybe Not necessarily shock in awe the market, there are a lot of short sellers who are going on tv, and this is my opinion, i believe they're short sellers. There are a lot of short sellers who are going on tv going. The fed needs to be so aggressive. They should go for 100 basis points and they should shock in all the market.

This is great for short sellers by the way, because shock and haul would well shock and drop the market, uh and uh, and then they're casting all this fed fear. But the fed's already told us now we we don't plan to shock at all. However, people don't really trust the fed because remember the fed said slow and steady 25 bp hikes and all of a sudden. It's now now we're going to front load it like 1994., so anyway, tomorrow, the expectation broadly, is we're going to get our first, probably of 250 basis.

Point hikes: that's because if we only did 25 bp hikes in the seven meetings that we had after january, with federal reserve, if we only did 25 bp, we would be at a fed funds rate of 1.75 to 2.. Well, the fed has told us they're trying to get above 2 likely to 2 and a half percent by the end of the year. The only way you could get to two and a half percent by the end of the year is by adding 25 basis points to two meetings. That means you're doing either 175 bp hike tomorrow or you're going 50 two times and then you'll actually align with what the fed's saying that we think we should be above neutral and at two and a half percent by the end of the year.

That aligns with getting 50 in may 50 in june, then the fed going all right, how's that data coming in and hopefully we see that we actually have some form of inflationary peak. That would be absolutely spectacular. Why? Because well, uh to some degree we're potentially already expecting that forecasts for next month's gdp are actually way low. I mean we're looking at point two percent month over month, inflation and core inflation at point, four percent, which excludes food and gas, which means we're expecting actually a large decline in food and gas prices.

So this will be very uh very interesting. You know off of off of the peaks right which, to some degree, we've already seen some of these moves off of the peaks consider, for example, just the the wheat etf, just as an example. It's done extremely well, since we first started talking about it at seven dollars on this channel w-e-a-t. It's done absolutely great, i'm not a commodities person, but i'm still going to talk to you about these things, as i see them coming up.

So if you were watching when we talked about this initially and you made some moves on it, congratulations i hope you made some money on, but take a look at this you really in order to make money you would have had to have bought roughly when we Started talking about it when it was around seven to eight bucks, because sure we ran almost up to thirteen dollars, but we've really stabilized and consolidated since that. Well, this sort of run gets priced into food markets, especially as food sellers try to front run. Some of these crazy runs here, and so it wouldn't be a surprise at all to actually see that food and gas and oil kind of related inflation, energy related inflation to to show a month-over-month essential decline. Uh from from march potentially suggesting that the peak of inflation would be march, but who knows if that'll actually end up being true for the months going forward: uh tbd, so uh, okay, let's talk a little bit about other news.

Uh, specifically, i want to talk about this really interesting, uh thing that uh that ross - and i were tweeting about yesterday and and if you're interested in this at all, i highly encourage that you go on twitter and retweet this or, if you don't have a twitter Account you make a freaking twitter account and you retweet this uh, because so take a look at this elon musk replied to ross gerber yesterday and said that: hey what we you know, will we be able to keep our twitter stock and elon musk said we'll? Do our best so to that ross, garber replied: we need a tracking stock or a holding company. That's public! We represent a legion of tesla investors that would want to invest in twitter with new management, and that's true like i would love to invest in twitter with new management, and i want to make this very clear right now. The upside for twitter is really limited. At 54.20, so if you're buying a stock at 50 dollars your upsides four bucks and 20 cents, if the deal goes through, if the deal doesn't go through, then you could see it go all the way back down to 35 36 bucks, that's a substantial decline! Maybe somewhere in the neighborhood of 20, so you're, risking a 20 decline for or potentially even 30 decline, depending uh for, for maybe a 10 profit again deal doesn't go through because the sec or the ftc or the fcc or whatever comes in and blocks this.

Because the biden administration forces it, then you get some big problems right. So the the upside has the ceiling. But if elon musk lets individuals keep some shares of twitter, then that ceiling gets removed. The problem is, if you're, trying to take a company private, usually you're, not going to want to exceed 2 000 shareholders.

So what did we talk about yesterday? Which, in my opinion, could actually be a huge boon? And i highly recommend you retweet this? If you potentially want to even remotely see this happen, okay, so here's what you do uh, so i tweeted this and i talked to ross about it after i tweeted it uh and ross is like we. We got ta figure out how to make this happen, because it's like perfect for retail uh. So i go. You know what, if we partner, slash, make a retail holding company, so you make a shell corp like a c corp uh for and basically you buy a large slice of twitter elon musk would really, in that case, just have one extra shareholder.

You'd have the corporation uh that would be an extra shareholder. That holding company could essentially then represent 200 to 500 million dollars worth of retail capital. You know maybe you're like i want to put 20 grand in. I want to put 100 grand in maybe you're accredited.

Maybe you're not right, and so what you do is uh. First of all, you need somebody like to actually pay all the freaking attorney costs and go through the the you know three to nine months of regulatory hell to do it, but anyway uh. Basically, you you could you could raise the fund as both reggae and reg d, so that way, non-accredited investors can get in up to about 75 mil, which means you could put in you know: 1000 bucks, 500 bucks, whatever uh and and not, and accredited investors could Get in as well via id now there are no plans of this right, so this is just like theorizing right now, but anyway, this is something that that we were just thinking about. You know whether it's, whether it's us who does it or somebody else it doesn't really matter what matters is that uh? You know it sounds like elon's interested in giving some folks some opportunity to invest in twitter and the structure like that.

Probably something like that would be a really good idea. Uh that way, elon has limited shareholders, but could still give retail shareholders that sort of exposure, because here's the reality is, i think elon musk is getting a wedge deal right. I think he's buying twitter kind of overpaying for it the way it looks right now because we see it as such a fixer-upper, but he knows he can fix it up so inexpensively cuts. So many costs that, when it's done, the market value of twitter will probably be 2x.

What it is you know what what elon's paying for it. Uh assuming the renovations, go through the way we expect. So it's kind of kind of very interesting uh so anyway feel free to you know retweet that if that's something you were interested in uh anyway and no guarantees, i mean freaking elon musk does never reply. Steady white tweets, it's totally fine, like i'm, not expecting that.

I deserve replies here. Just like you know, just saying you know the the the elon replies can tend to be a little sporadic and like all over the place, it's kind of entertaining so anyway we're about three minutes from the bell and then uh after the bell. I do want to talk a little bit about some stagflationary concerns and some of the other drama that's going on. I do want to quickly just remind everybody that uh i do have a back to the moon coupon code, which is uh basically set for the inspiration that we do have a rally post of the fed meeting, and so, if you want to join me, definitely i Highly encourage, if you have not yet check out the real estate, investing group, do-it-yourself, property management, rental renovations, super common bundle right there uh you can get a bundle discount as well when you join up front or at first and uh, you're you're gon na want real Estate exposure, like i believe, strongly by the end of either starting at the end of the year or next year, like you're, going to want to be educated in real estate.

So uh, you know if you want to make big dollars, you know hashtag no guarantees, but if you want to print money with wedge deals, i think that's you should you should invest in yourself a little bit in education uh. Nobody else does wedge deals. You see the flippers and stuff, but flipping is nonsense. Okay, so, let's get to uh.

Let's get to the opening bell and some of the metri metrics uh that we're expecting right now we're roughly flat on open here, and i really want to highlight uh some of the latest stats that we have specifically on uh the 10-year and then of course, the 10-2, so let's grab the 10 here so uh. The 10-year right now actually down quite a bit down about seven basis, points down to two point: nine four! So we're really rejecting the idea that we're going to be over three percent. This is now the second week in a row and that we've rejected uh crossing three percent. The 10-2 spread sitting at about 21 basis points which is relatively stable, we're not inverted which is good and then the five-year break, even which is the market's expectation of inflation.

Uh right now is sitting at a low of about 3.23, which is good recent low. Let's listen to the bell distinguished guests by ted, so we can start all over. We got a bunch of travel names and hilton expedia and gm today, jim well i'll, tell you. The one i want to mention is uh estee lauder.

I think that for pizza, friends, jim cramer wants to talk about estee lauder. Okay, that's great we're actually gon na talk about big boy, stuff uh, and that is the fact that uh, the nasdaq loves the idea of selling down the day before the federal reserve. Meeting now remember the first like minute to two are always absolutely insane, because that's when you get your your you know, whatever fun decisions were made last afternoon yesterday afternoon yesterday evening, early this morning, those those funds are pulling the trigger on executing trades. So, generally, the first few minutes uh, you know whatever uh.

It will be very interesting today. If we end up do if we do end up seeing that sort of front running of hey, let's uh, let's get in before that potential fed rally or if people are so fearful of the fed that it's just you know what no! No! No, that that was a one-time occurrence. There's no guarantee we're going to get that fed rally, but i'm still optimistic about it, and it's certainly not going to let the first minute or two of trading uh affect my confidence and that happening it'll be closer to the end of the day. That will pay attention to that.

Look at this all of a sudden, arkamoto, okay yeah. That was a glitch. I'm like that's that seemed crazy. Arcamoda was showing, as as up like 22 uh, it's actually down 1.45 thanks weeble for the head fake there.

Oh yeah, yeah, uh, hey hey! If you too want a head fake and you want to get some free stock, make sure you go to medcabin.com weeble! That's w-e-b-u-l-l, mech kevin.com weeble get yourself free stocks when you sign up for yeah weeble uh, oh golly, folks, look at this okay where'd it go seo is doing it over on this side too. I'm just gon na say it looked like. Some of these companies were really getting hit over here. Look at this matterport right now sitting at a 6.4 percent of the downside.

5.66. You know: what's crazy is so so i'm not in matterport anymore uh, which is really unfortunate, because i think it's a wonderful company but uh kathy wood just opened a position at like seven dollars and fifty cents and and it's just like there goes another two dollars. It's like, oh man, you just you can't be in in companies right now that are losing money as soon as companies are losing money. The institutional investors are like.

No thank you uh. So it's it's unfortunate, but you know that's uh, that's, unfortunately, the the way the market behaves right now is that uh? If, if you can go into a stock, screener and sort for money, losing companies you're, probably going to get sold off uh if uh, if you're a money losing company in this market, it's just it's just way too. In there's, too little insulation against actions of the federal reserve, it's one of the reasons i actually personally prefer uh the um uh. Oh here we go it's one of the reasons i personally prefer investing in in larger companies that i'm more confident in longer term like tesla right now, specifically because hey uh, you you have that safety.

You've got the safety of of serious growth, uh and uh being a mega cap. Now. The danger, of course, is that if tesla misses growth well, you're you're gon na go to the ground. You know if tesla misses and all of a sudden consumers change their opinions.

You're going to have you're going to have some big issues, so uh uh. I do want to shout out the meme of the day here. This is okay. I have to say this is probably one of my favorite memes right now.

That's uh, that's sort of trending. Regarding the met gala so uh last year, when aoc, you know progressive super far on the left, some people questioning the title uh progressive because she is pretty far to the left. So she uh last year, went to the met gala with address that said, tax. The rich - and so this meme that's circulating right now.

Uh is actually elon musk at the met gala and uh. He has this sort of photoshopped on his uh shirt i literally paid 11 billion dollars in taxes, uh and so yeah. The the joke is that uh here you go on one side: you have tax the rich. On the other side, you have one single person paying more money in taxes in america than any human has ever before.

Meanwhile, he also donated over 5.5 billion dollars to charity. In 2021 and uh, yet aoc has student loan debt that she's begging to get forgiven by joe biden, yeah interesting kind of disparity here so uh. So then we've got uh. Let's see here, that's uh! That's that's a good one, uh all right! So uh! Okay, there's a few other things that we got to talk about, actually quite a few other things that we got to talk about so uh.

A couple couple, smaller things here i do want to mention uh obviously unionizing is uh - has become a big issue and concern for amazon. It's been something that's been weighing on. Amazon stock is the fear of unionization. You can see even well before the earnings report for amazon you've had this sort of downtrend here in the stock leading up to our earnings here, you've really been coming down.

You've been getting rejected off of this sort of mid 3000's level. You've been rotating down. One of the reasons for this fear is the fear of amazon, potentially unionizing its labor force, and so something very interesting actually happened yesterday, which potentially is good for shareholders and that's that uh last month a union won a very large warehouse of vote in in the New york region and uh unionized, this was the first for amazon amazon by the way spends millions of dollars on sort of anti-unionization campaigns and raising wages for their workers. Well, on monday, yesterday, workers rejected unionizing a warehouse on staten island.

Now this was a surprise uh. The vote was 318-4 and 618 against unionization, so, like it wasn't even close, you know starbucks and rei have been going through this stuff as well, and one of the arguments that's being made is that it's harder to unionize when you have less economically secure workers, so For example, if you have a bunch of more part-time workers, they might fear that well we're all just going to get fired if we vote for this so like, let's just have a job rather than no job and so uh a lot. There was also a lot of skepticism that the union was pushing for you know part-time factory work to essentially be getting paid 30 dollars an hour per minimum wage, and you know right now: amazon's been paying somewhere between 18 to 24 for starting factory workers throughout the Country, but when you start looking at thirty dollars, it's like wow, you know there are a lot of professional workers who have you know decades or certainly years of plumbing and electrical experience, who are working for 30 bucks. An hour 28 bucks an hour 35 bucks an hour, and so so that that creates a lot of skepticism about this idea of oh yeah.

We could just get to a 30 minimum wage and so that unionization did not pass yesterday at amazon again, potentially a good thing for amazon, uh, potentially a bad thing for for workers, depending on how you look at it uh anyway uh. Then there was also this update from apple from the european union. The european union slapped apple yesterday uh the eu commission on fair trade slammed apple, saying that apple is breaking anti-trust laws by basically making it too easy for people to use apple pay. The argument is that hey: why is it that, if, if you have your phone, you could just double click on the side and boom you're using apple pay? Why is it that you could do that with a double click or you can use your apple watch and double click and then boom you've got that nfc near field communication? You know kind of that radio, communication uh.

Why is it that you have that for uh? You know the apple wallet, but not for the paypal wallet, for example, because if i want to use the paypal wallet or venmo or whatever i got to go open up the app and uh and then maybe i can scan or get my qr code read or Whatever and so there's this argument that this isn't fair, so apple getting a little bit of a regulatory slap over here, you know not not uncommon to see uh this kind of stuff, especially out of europe, you get it a lot more in europe than we get Uh over here so uh, let's take a quick, a little check there on the qqq and then there's another thing that i really want to talk about, which is sort of stagflationary fears. But yeah take a look at this here. You've got the qqq uh. You know really having a hard time getting over, that zero percent fibonacci line we're trading under it, which is not where you want to be when you're doing fibs uh but uh yeah there you go it's uh, it's quite interesting, so uh, okay, another thing we got Ta talk about uh, well, two big things: uh uh, the second one is gon na be like stagflationary recession concerns right.

I wan na talk about that, but i do wan na quickly just report on roe v wade. Okay, this - this is a this - is a big deal. Maybe you've heard about it. Maybe you've seen some headlines on it.

I'm just going to give you my quick perspective in terms of what's going on here. So yesterday there was a leaked document likely leaked by a clerk or or somebody who works for the courts. This should not have been released. This is a draft document that that has not been finalized yet, but politico has verified the authenticity of this release.

After extensive review, you know whatever heck it is that they do uh and uh and pretty much at this point, it's like yeah. No, this is this is a legit document. Every news agency in the world has picked this up. At this point, the ap, the nyt wall street journal, you name it and so basically uh.

This leaked document shows that the majority of the supreme court has now voted to overrule roe v wade now roe v wade is a 1973 case which created the precedent that essentially gave the right to women to have abortions, obviously, with certain constraints, depending on uh the Age of of the baby and and then of course, the the circumstances surrounding the pregnancy, whether there was rape or incest or or you know, whatever. If there's a birth defect, who knows so uh pre, it would obviously be a pre-birth defect, but anyway, so uh. One of the the arguments in it - and this was sort of the salient argument in it - is that justice uh alito made the argument that the supreme court believes we should heed the constitution and basically return the issue of abortion to the people and their elected representatives. And so this really pays homage to the tenth amendment, because the tenth amendment says the following: the powers not delegated to the federal government to the united states by the constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states or to the people.

So, in other words, if the constitution doesn't say you can have an abortion, the people should decide and the people should decide via the states like the default is go back to the states, so this has created this huge like like like crazy. You know this last night over, oh my gosh, you know uh, you know, abortion is, is illegal or whatever. That's that's not what's happening here right. The supreme court is just simply saying we are going to give the power back to the states, because when we look at the constitution it doesn't actually give us the right to regulate or set precedent for abortion.

Now. All of this has really come to heed recently, because you've got states like texas and then other states like idaho, considering emulating taxes where texas is allowing private party individuals to sue people privately civilly for up to ten thousand dollars in damages. If you so much as aid in an abortion process, so if you're an uber driver and somebody's getting a ride to an abortion clinic, you as the uber driver, are potentially liable to private party lawsuits for up to ten thousand dollars uh. So it doesn't matter if it's doctors, nurses, employees, whatever the state has decided private party individuals can now sue people for up to ten thousand dollars and other states are are taking this same sort of approach.

So what are you seeing? Naturally, you're seeing abortion skyrocket in states surrounding texas and surrounding areas that are making it uh more difficult for abortions to occur, uh and then, of course, you have substantial debates over okay. Well, is there ever a reasonable uh age of of an embryo or fetus, where an abortion would be acceptable before heartbeat at conception after heartbeat? How long after heartbeat, how many weeks right, uh oftentimes? We see the debate center around the 20-week era, uh, where, where uh fetus is deemed potentially viable and and potentially able to survive on its own uh, others say no, it should be closer to 10 weeks or just straight up at conception. These are all the debates that are really just getting delegated to the states now so you're gon na hear a lot about this. That's basically just we're moving the this issue to the states.

There's nothing! That's saying! Okay, all of a sudden, abortion is illegal. It's not what the supreme court saying, despite the fact that when you look on the internet, you can see some pretty wild other things. Okay, so i wanted to hit on that now. I want to hit on uh stagflation a lot to talk about today.

Okay, so this is a big one: okay, whoo! That's a lot of talking kevin, take a quick little coffee, sip here, uh and then we'll talk about that. Oh uh. Actually, i do also want to jump we'll do this one after let's hit the stagflationary recession, then we're going to hit some of these catalysts and we'll look back at some of the sticks here. Uh, i'm going to take a quick sip here and then we're going to talk about these tagflationary risks.

Uh ooh sun run up 3.7 right now: intercontinental hotels, man, the international hotel group, that's holiday inn by the way uh ihg. I remember - and this sounds like so weird to say, like i kind of like i get like little tears in my eyes, because i i feel like seriously this i'm getting emotional over this, because i i feel old, now uh, which i'm sorry that's like really offensive To anybody who's older than me - and i apologize that's not the intention here, but i remember being on vacation with lauren, and this sounds crazy, but i remember being on vacation with lauren in 2009 uh we were in london, uh and and um. You know we're saying like this holiday in and i'm like man. These are getting really nice like they're, all renovating them really cool and i'm like, i should buy holiday in stock, and you know that's part of the international hotel group.

Well, damn had i done that. I would have more than 10xed my money, you know i mean look at that it was five bucks back then it's 65. Now you know i. I can't do that.

You know. I can't look back, though, and feel that way because, like how much would i have really invested, i don't know like a 500 jamba juice paycheck. You know like relative to to obviously uh. You know what i'm able to invest right now it it doesn't make a difference.

Even if it's 10x, it's like okay cool, like my 500, would have been 5 000, but still like it like. Who cares about the fluctuations of the market golly when i just teleport in my mind, 13 years ago, i'm like who freaking cares? You could buy anything uh, which also kind of like makes me think about right now and how kind of right now it feels like we're we're sort of potentially in the midst of of a recession, at least when we look at you know certain things like if We go to qq uh. I personally like looking at the logarithmic chart, which i actually don't know how to do on weeble. Let me see if i can get the log chart up here on uh trading view.

I know i know i can get it up on trading view uh. So give me a second i'll pull up uh the qqq log and then we're going to talk about that this stagflationary recession talk that i really want to talk about so qqq uh, but yeah anyway. You can't you can't look back at all those. You know um crazy, crazy feelings of like the the woulda coulda showed us right, uh.

It's it's really bad uh, but it does. It is sort of paying homage a little bit to uh the uh long-term, investing mindset, okay, so this is trading view. Okay, when you look at the stock market in sort of a regular uh nominal uh measure you you get, what looks like you know, still a pretty substantial decline over here at the top right, but uh you're. You also see these really big declines over here, like the dot-com bubble.

It's like oh, does that mean we potentially have more to fall right. This is really difficult to compare to because you're dealing with substantially smaller numbers. I mean you're talking about the nasdaq over here. Going from basically a hundred bucks to 20 bucks, it's like an 80 decline right and then over here, you're talking about going from like 405 on the qqq to like you know where we were yesterday, like 310, so you're like 20 right so percentage-wise.

These are very skewed, even though they look at they look like similar declines right. You know one. You get an 80 decline here. You got a 20 decline, so i highly encourage you uh change these kind of charts when you go back like this to log, okay and the beautiful thing about log is well first, it screws up your chart makes it look really really flat uh and you have To figure out how to fix that, but after you fix that geez come on uh after you fix that you get what's actually a substantially more relevant chart um, maybe i'm gon na have to use two fingers here.

I have to put my coffee down to fix. This hold up. Give me a second here: ah training you you're, so exhausting okay. Let's zoom got ta zoom in now, you're putting me into pennies.

Oh, my gosh trading view you suck um. So this was supposed to be like, like an exciting pitch for trading view, but it's really bothering me right now: okay, there i got it, i did it, i did it it's ipad. I manipulated it just perfectly with my fingers and i made it work. Okay, look at this when you go log.

Okay, look at this crap folks! Look on the left side right there. What an 80 decline looks like look at what a 30 40ish percent decline looks like they're in 08, which is right over here. Look at how crazy high volumes were over here, wow look at those volumes. Look how much higher volumes were then, but then again, dot like the the share prices were lower, so that's probably skewed right, but anyway uh and then look at the decline that we've got over here.

So i mean substantial substantial differences and that's why people are suggesting hey. We got. We got a lot more to go to actually have like a a real pain set and recession like we had in these areas over here. So when you look at the log chart, it doesn't make, you want to invest right now, so keep that in mind but uh anyway.

It's just one thing right now: jobs report, you've, got adp jobs report tomorrow and then the official jobs report on friday, okay, uh, okay, so the question is wait. Oh this is. This is just briefly going back to the abortion thing, who sues the person that assisted potentially like the uber driver, whatever anyone literally anyone, you could go there and sue the uber driver. Anyone can sue uh for for that that 10 000 uh ten thousand um dollars in damages essentially uh.

So then that's why it's so wide reaching is because anybody who sees or hears about it boom uh, you know, that's uh, that's pretty wild. Now biden has just come out and said that uh you know abortion is a woman's right. That choice is, is fundamentally a woman's right, but then, of course you know, there's there's the complete other side of the debate that no. This is murder like, for example, this comment here somebody donated five dollars to say: murder is murder, uh, and so obviously this is very substantial and emotional debate in in our country.

I i yeah it's it's. It's very divided, okay, yeah! So now we got ta talk about the stagflation and recessionary. Concern talk a little bit about that and then we got some other updates as well, especially like crypto and all that and so on. Okay, all right, you ready for this.

Is it possible that we are going into a stagflationary recession and what does this have to do with potentially looking back at the 1970s? Well, let's talk about exactly that. So in the 1970s we had the arab oil embargo, which created a prolonged period of inflation, gas lines, gas shortages, gas rationing and massive inflation. Massive to the point where we had to get what's now called vulcard, which is when paul volcker stepped in. Finally, in the late 70s and early 80s and said enough of this we're raising rates aggressively to over 15 16, so we can crush inflation by getting ahead of inflation.

We are going to force a recession because when we raise rates so substantially, we sap demand creating a year over year, negative growth in gdp. Two quarters of that in a row boom you've got a recession, so we crushed it uh, essentially by raising rates to such ridiculous levels that borrowing essentially stopped and we were able to end inflation by proving that the federal reserve had the intention of fighting inflation, see Back in the 70s, at the same time as we had the arab oil embargo, we had a complete loss of confidence in the federal reserve because the federal reserve just hadn't, had to deal with this before and they were clueless in terms of how to deal with It the government was failing, because the government had price sealing policies in place which just exacerbated shortages, i mean think about it. If prices are not allowed to go up, then you get even more shortages and which eventually bottles up even more inflation, and so when those price ceiling policies were removed in the 70s by nixon, what did you end up having? Well, you ended up having substantial inflation because the price ceiling is now gone and so prices were able to go to market prices which were now exacerbated by even worse shortages, right and so. Inflation took hold via the arab oil embargo.

These lifting of failed government policies on price ceilings and the expectation that the federal reserve was not going to be able to tame inflation. That was really bad, and on top of that, what did we do in the 70s? Well nixon in 1971 decided. You know what we're gon na leave the gold standard, which made everybody think. That's it we're going back to the 1920s wymore republic, where you're walking around with wheelbarrows of cash in because well like a loaf of bread, costs a wheelbarrow of cash uh, and so this.

This led to the expectation that inflation was just going to destroy the american dollar, especially since it wasn't on the gold standard and either we'd go back in the gold standard or we're screwed. Now we ended up just getting vulcared, which was also bad because it led to a pretty nasty recession, but but it ended up solving inflation. And so this is how we ended up regaining uh fiat trust so to speak and inflation stabilized and so for 40 years. Thereafter, inflation has been essentially on this downward trend that uh, you know, productivity is up.

Uh you've got uh innovation up and and really expectations that over time as democracies mature, you end up getting less inflation. That's just statistically what happens, and this is why uh more mature democracies, like you have uh in europe, are substantially uh or before this latest crisis have been facing substantially lower inflation than us, even to the point of being in uh territory, where uh rates are negative Right, this is not where the amer, where america was before uh the pandemic in war, and so that's where we now have this boom of inflation now, and it is the largest commodity shock that we've really experienced since the 1970s uh. And so it's scary, because much like the shock of the arab oil embargo in the 70s, we've got this dual effect now of a pandemic via kovat 1.0 uh delta, variant of covid, omicron variant of covid and now war all leading to a similar style, energy and Commodity shock, again, the likes of which we haven't seen for 50 plus years, and this could get even worse by the halting of natural gas flows from russia to germany and other countries who refuse to use the russian ruble to transact. Because this would require germany essentially have a bank in russia and send euros to that bank in russia, convert to the russian ruble and then buy uh.

You know natural gas. Poland has so far refused to do this and has been cut off by russia, and so you get a lot of these sort of fears that are building up, and on top of that, we now had the first quarter of negative gdp for the united states uh. You know, since the coveted pandemic, this was absolutely not expected and nobody was forecasting uh this well, at least in in terms of uh economist consensus, estimates of a growth of one point, four percent. You know us.

Actually, i think it's actually growth of one point: five percent, but actually having gdp of negative one point. Four percent we've got some real issues right on top of the fact that china is already likely in a recession, but their their data is questionable. So you know maybe they are in a recession, but we don't know about it. Uh south korea has had its highest levels of inflation in the last 10 years.

We don't even need to start talking about the inflation that we're seeing in brazil over 10 argentina. Even more than that, europe's likely in a recession or going into a recession, global growth is slowing and, quite frankly, we expect gdp this year, uh to be 4.1 across the world, or at least i should say we expected that in january and that's already been cut By like 25 down to 3.3, and quite frankly, that's likely still too high we're probably going to have even lower global growth uh. At the same time, we started the year with global inflation expectations of around 2.25 for the world and we're going to be at like 6.2, that's at least where the estimates are now, which are also probably wrong. So this is where now there are serious concerns that we're going to be in a stagflationary environment, potentially all of 2022., and so stagflation is really like the worst possible case that you could imagine, because, if you're on stipulation and you're, maybe in a stagflation, induced recession.

So we could call that stagflationary recession well now, you've got really big problems because see the way you solve stagflation is by on one hand, you have to deal with part one which is a stagnating economy. Well, usually, the way to solve a stagnating economy. Is you expect productivity to go up and spending to go up but uh the way to encourage that would be via stimulus or lower interest rates? But the way, if you do that, you actually end up likely increasing the odds of inflation, continuing and and anchoring, and if inflation gets anchored because people are seeing wow the fed's, still printing money wow, the us government is, you know, still printing money. Well then, what do you have? Well, you end up, and i just want to clarify that really quick, so i don't get comments on it.

The united states government actually runs the money printers, but the federal reserve can essentially finance that by creating numbers on a spreadsheet. Okay, they call it digital printing. The government actually prints it. Okay government stimulates, via like stimulus, checks, uh the federal reserve stimulates by lowering rates, or you know, buying bonds, uh, which, which then puts cash on bank balance sheets, which they can then lend out.

Okay, clarify so anyway uh, so the way you deal with inflation is by raising rates and again the way you deal with stagnation is by lowering rates. So you're really like like what? What is the federal reserve supposed to do and remember consumers make up 70 of the economy, so this means honestly 2022 and we've been saying this since january, and i've had this consistent argument that 2022 could just straight up suck. Why? Because here's the thing q1 gdp was negative. Well, what happens if q1 gdp being negative is enough to kind of create enough fear in at least some consumers that we pull back not like substantially, but just to where we we're not positive year over year, like if gdp just for simple purposes, is 20 trillion Dollars last year, and then this year we pull back just one dollar, just one dollar like you, don't actually have to pull back that freaking much you just pull back one dollar now you're negative year over year, right at 19.99, whatever uh so uh.

This means we could actually have a stagflationary recession to where now some folks are saying look we might be negative for q1 because we had omicron in january and people weren't spending in january. People are spending more now, which means maybe we'll have a positive q2. But if people get scared about what happened in q1 and then we get worse spending in q3 and 4, especially since q34 last year, is when we had the child tax credit lots of spending the like crazy black friday numbers right lots of consumer spending. Well, then, we could end up having a negative q1 negative q3 negative q4, and even though we technically didn't have a recession in the first half, we would have a recession in the second half and you could just have a nasty 2022 which would probably set up For an easy beat in 2023, which means no recession in 2023, but still you're gon na live through potentially this stagflationary recession of 2022, where the only way to get through this nonsense is basically just to suffer you're going to suffer the stock market volatility.

You suffer. The real estate volatility because, as the 10-year treasury is dancing around three percent mortgage rates, people are now getting quoted. I mean they're technically sitting around five five and a quarter, but unless you're a perfect borrower, you're, probably paying like 5.58 right now for for a loan, which is crazy. I mean we're closer to six percent now than we are to five percent, so in other words, we we could see that spending decline and end up having a stagflationary recession towards towards the end of the year.

Now. The only thing that could potentially make this better is potentially hitting peak inflation and us being at a uh, a point where the federal reserve can u-turn, and so this is the hopium that everybody has it's kind of like why my coupon code, linked down below for The programs, i'm building your wealth and real estate and stocks is back to the moon, because if it comes true that we do end up having peak inflation in march, then the federal reserve can actually deal with stagflation. They could say: okay, cool. We don't actually have to raise rates as aggressively, so we could keep like staying neutral or slightly kind of stimulate the markets to avoid well, not markets the economy, to uh to prevent stagflation, while at the same time inflation is naturally coming down.

That would just be like best case scenario, but it could be just like you know. Smoking opium, so uh forecast right now actually kind of suggests that the hopium might be accurate, uh, and so that's what's also. Weird is first of all five year break evens, which are the market's expectations for inflation, have come down since their peak in march quite substantially the peak in march, we were like three point: seven percent on the five-year break even now we're at uh three point: two: Three percent, so that's a nice decline. The uh forecast for inflation next month is point two percent month over month.

That's an annualized run rate of inflation of just 2.4 percent. That's really really good. Uh core inflation is expected to be 0.4, which is an annual run rate of about 4.8 percent that excludes food and gas, which, in order for you to have a higher core number than a higher overall number, means that food and gas went negative, which is entirely Possible that food and gas went negative because uh in you know in april, compared to march, because in march everything just went to the frickin moon. You know at the same time we have uh.

You know some signs that that consumers are relaxing a little bit uh. You know with with their spending, which is actually a good thing. For example, leading indicators of railcar freight activity are showing somewhat of a slowdown in consumer spending for crap for goods and services. Uh.

Certainly, durables used car prices going down, uh washing machines, refrigerators right these things. Relaxing, however, service spending is still crazy. I mean you, look at uh the travel sector and forecasts for like expedia and forecast for for the airlines. Those are actually really good, so consumers still spending but spending in places where we're not doubling up on those supply chain issues.

So potentially we end up with a peak in march, right uh, and so then, when you kind of look at what the stock market is doing - and this is, in my opinion quite interesting - it's sort of a little bit of a leading indicator that maybe the inflationary Fear play is starting to unwind a little bit and remember i don't know if this is going to be a fact, but i always like to tell you things when i see them happen uh earlier, so so that way you could have a little bit of a Heads up uh in in terms of where a trend might be going so remember when we had inflationary concerns, it was like: okay, get out of consumer discretionaries, get into consumer staples and materials. So what did everybody? Do? Everybody flocked to things like costco, which is your like core consumer staple okay, fine, but what happened with costco well costco is now actually trending down it's down like what twelve percent now from its peak just about a week to two weeks ago. Another one mp materials was a you know. It is still a mining company, but it was seen as oh, my gosh.

This is the perfect hedge for inflation. It's been on this phenomenal uptrend, but you've seen this peak right around the beginning of april, and so it's kind of been on like a one month. Downtrend i mean so is the nasdaq right. The nasdaq's also been on one month downtrend, but you are seeing some potential capping on some of these same thing with the weed etf, even though it's been consolidating on slightly a little upward trend, it certainly hasn't been some of the peaks that we've seen now again.

It could be that this is correlating to the nasdaq uh or the spy going down, but costco has been going up regularly during times in which the spy has been going down. Again, you go back to costco. It's really been just recent. Let's go to the day here instead of the week, it's really only been since about the last week of april that you've seen this sort of peaking and u-turning here.

So this is something where some folks are saying: hey. The market kevin is already telling us that we're we've hit peak fear and commodities. We've hit peak fear in inflation protections market expectations via the five-year break even are way down from uh. You know down 60 basis points uh from from where we were in march, and consumer expectations of inflation are actually stable, uh and then this is where folks also say: hey look kevin, literally uh.

You know i have it right here on the bloomberg terminal in reuters terminal. We literally just while i've been yapping here just three minutes ago, got two big updates. We got a beat like a a substantial beat on factory orders up over two percent versus the one percent expected, which is a sign that i don't know. I mean the consumer's still spending, which echoes literally, what we're seeing in all of the earnings reports.

All of the earnings reports that we're getting, whether it's uh, you know: uh apple, the chipsets, the airlines, the banks, uh individual companies, you name it the consumer spending. So it doesn't. It's not a surprise that we also just got the jolts number, which is jobs, openings and uh. We were expecting 11.2 million job openings.

We actually got 11.5 million, which means that, like businesses, aren't really worried about a stagflationary recession uh, because job openings are here, you know like layoffs and stuff tend to happen after a recession has started but like job openings are a nice oftentimes leading indicator uh. So so, anyway, uh the rest of the year, obviously will will really matter in terms of what the fed does. The fed is expected not to shock and us, but they are expected to front load some some of their actions and the hope is again. This is just a hope, then, in order for us to really avoid a very painful stagflationary recession, we need inflation to go down, naturally not to get paul, volcker and the fed to just go back to like neutral or slightly accommodative uh, but not like super aggressive.

Like where paul, volckery and uh and absolutely destroy this economy, because the fed could do that, if a paul volcker by the way would look like this inflation's at eight and a half percent, the fed goes fine, we'll set rates at nine percent. That's a paul volckering like people are worried about 50 basis points, and i'm like this is moronic like who cares we're at a quarter basis. Point now for the fomc, you go up a half percent, we're still at .75 like come on man. We need to be above two percent to be above neutral and we're not even close to where inflation is so like.

These fed hikes are super nominal. We're not getting paul volcker here, we're just like slightly turning the hose off a little faster than the market likes in the market. Like oh yeah, it's the end of the world and the way the end world like actually doesn't happen, is the sag. The flation part of stagflation goes away and we're starting to see signs of that, and so personally i'm really optimistic, but that doesn't mean that 2022 is still not going to suck.

But again, if i, if i zoom out and i'm like well, let me look at the history of markets. Where do i want to invest? Do i want to invest when the market's at bottom or do i want to invest? You know when everybody's euphoric and happy well i'd rather invest in a recession, and i think 2022 is actually the year of recession, whether that's we have a positive and negative first half or a positive or an or i'm sorry, an all negative, first half or an All negative second, half or or some combination where it's like it's negative, positive, negative negative, and then we have a recession at the end. I don't really care. I think it's setting up for low comps for easy beats in 2023 uh and then your recessionary fears go away.

Uh! That's it's all moved up since the last gdp report, but those those are just my thoughts. So my thoughts on the stagflationary recession. You want to talk to me in private lives. You can do that as well check out the programs, i'm building your wealth link down below, especially the real estate ones.

Okay, so that's my talk on stagflationary recession. Okay, so let's talk quickly a little market check and then i got some more stuff to talk about too there's so much to talk about today. Oh look, we went green, oh okay, so yeah look at that. We actually went green on the nasdaq uh.

It's it's!.