Has the market bottomed and is it time to buy back in? That's what we address in this video. Remember: January 30th biggest coupon code expires guaranteed. Check it out. Link down below for the programs and building your wealth.

Let's get started. I'll never forget when I was uh oh gosh in high school. uh and it was around 2007 and I was just getting ready to graduate high school. started working on my real estate license in high school I ended up getting my real estate license at 18.

I'll never forget uh in in 2009. Around this time, my uh, family members were dumping their 401ks because they had realized that the valuation had fallen so much it was almost kind of like they'd never been into stocks. They're sort of just blind to the idea of of the stock market and it's almost as if all of a sudden you had folks decide oh well. I'm gonna go look and see what my retirement is and oh no, it's down like 40.

Well dang, if it's sound 40 percent I'm may as well go and sell because if I sell now, at least I'll still have the other sixty percent. And sure enough, many of these folks and not just uh, people that were close to me, but but also just you saw the story repeat itself over and over again. We're selling essentially at the bottom of the market. Uh, and as difficult as it is to time the market perfectly I Think it's very clear when markets tell you.

okay, we're near a top of a cycle. It's time to buy. Okay, we're near a bottom of a cycle. Or sorry, we're near a top of a cycle.

It's time to sell. We're near a bottom of a cycle. It's time to buy right? That's pretty logical I Think we could say that pretty clearly. For example, with the real estate cycle and the real estate cycle is something that I've been teaching probably for about 12 years originally in coffee shops and at open houses to folks, I would draw the or I actually had a picture of the real estate cycle up.

uh, and it was. It was sort of customized for Real Estate But folks were so worried about this idea of oh my gosh, you know, well what if home prices continue to fall and the the most simple and I think comforting concept that you should think of as an investor is not to try to be perfect to sell right here at the end of 2005 and try to buy right here in November of 2011 when the housing market bottom uh, and this applies to stocks as well, right? But instead the goal is to try to draw a line through the middle here and try to do your best to buy over here right, to buy here and to ultimately sell here. that is actually a lot easier to do. We can time that the market in this sense by looking at the macro cycle.

This is one of the reasons why in November of 2021 over here I started shorting Arc K wish I held on to those shorts longer. It's also why in January of 2022 I'd say probably on this side I sold my entire portfolio and and removed what I thought were some of the most most riskiest positions all together as we were in this sort of macro cycle. and it wasn't to say that oh, we could perfectly time the bottom. It's to say that we know we're at sort of a macro Peak right and now I would argue that we're probably somewhere near a macro Bottom Now that might be here or we might be here I Personally believe we're probably on the left side unless we have some form of Black Swan event that we haven't actually seen occur yet.

Which means if we are on the left side, we're certainly well. Either way, whether we're on the left or the right. Black Swan event or not I Believe we're certainly almost certainly I would say on the bottom half of this cycle I Think that's pretty evident with with some of the Uh declines and and the shifts in the economic data that we've seen, we'd really have to see a U-turn in inflation to the dark side or some kind of Black Swamp to suggest that we're not in the bottom half of the economic cycle. uh, the macro cycle here.

or you'd have to really believe that. Look, you know maybe inflation's going to pop up again and things are going to get even worse, But then you wonder, hey, does that mean we're just right here And okay, fine. so things are going to get a little bit worse, right? The point is, we're not at Euphoria anymore and my belief is, forget about trying to perfectly time the top or the bottom time the macro cycle and look at it as an individual and say, look, we're obviously in a difficult and recessionary style of time. Why not try to take advantage of this environment? work harder now.

Make more money now. Build more wealth Now by investing more now. So basically what you're doing by investing more now is You're Building more potential wealth, right? You work harder. Now you take your money, you buy more quantity of exposure to either prep for Real Estate or buying equities.

or maybe you're buying bonds. Whatever. and then that way you're rewarded as we enter the upswing of that cycle. Whenever that cycle comes, I Personally think that is actually quite easy for anyone to do.

it's it's not difficult to know. Okay, when when are we? When are we turning on a macro cycle to the dark side, And and when are we? When are things getting better right? Yeah, that that I think are those are the things that I think we will end up having shown as true between November and January as sort of our top. uh for the the peak of the cycle and uh, hopefully somewhere between October uh, certain stocks even as as early as July somewhere between July and October who knows that could have been a bottom? Maybe you get a double bottom? Who knows. Uh, But let's take a brief look over here.

So uh, this is where Uh, the reason I started with this is because there are so many research pieces discussing the differences between what investors are doing and how investors are positioning themselves and and almost daily. I read content: Uh, about how uh, investors are just in in such different positions. Uh, For example, here you've got: uh. You've got this argument that the current Equity rally we're seeing is due to systemic buying and hedge fund short covering which may have legs and there are always so many reasons for why the market could be going up right? uh in the short term.

I Actually agree I think I think in 2022, it was easy to make money just shorting the market. You could sell covered calls and milk money. You could short the market and milk money. It was easy.

Uh, and and unfortunately I think that actually for a lot of hedge funds leaves them under allocated to equities in in, uh, what? You know, what could eventually be a sustained rally And then what happens? Whether it's hedge funds or individuals, they'll end up saying oh, don't worry, the latest bounce is just a bear Market rally and it'll plummet to new lows again. Maybe? Or it doesn't And then all of a sudden they look back and they're like, wow, the Nasdaq's up 40. you know, whatever from from where it was. Uh, and they're like, dang well.

now everything's just overpriced. I'll wait for the double dip and then that double dip never ends up coming. Uh, that's that's a danger or risk that individuals run into I believe and so do institutions. Uh, but uh.

here's here's an interesting uh piece on the difference on how individuals and institutions are positioned. They do say that short interest has actually halved for, uh, the fourth quarter for European equities. However, in the United States we still sit at elevated levels of short interest now. I Find that very interesting that we're still sitting at elevated levels of short interest in the United States because at some point those shorts are going to have to cover when when when movements and the equity Market continue to prove that they're going to Trend uh in in a positive direction.

In contrast, mutual funds rather than remaining short or long cash and have actually been dumping equities in recent months. As a result, our Equity beta is close to lows. beta is is a measure of of the difference of your portfolio to Uh to to an index usually like the S P 500. similarly, the bid from retail investors has waned with U.S households turning to outright sellers of stocks.

Think about how weird this is. You're potentially sitting at I would potentially say the bottom 20 of the macro cycle. Again, no guarantees whether we are on the left or right, but the bottom twenty percent would probably look something like this of the macro cycle right. Again, it means we could potentially go a little lower or potentially means we've already lifted off of the bottom.

Nobody knows that. uh, but we, We do have high confidence that we're on the bottom half, potentially even within that bottom 20 percent. Yet at that same time, look at how investors are positioned. In my opinion, it's ludicrous.

You have households seller being sellers. You have mutual funds long cash, and you have hedge funds in the United States I Guess I should write three. There, we go. One, two three.

There we go. and you have hedge funds in the United States Still relatively short. So think about I mean there's a reason why Morgan Stanley has said there is so much cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work. and when you see a report like this from Barclays, you kind of reiterate that argument.

I Thought Well, yeah, if households are sellers, mutual funds are dumping and they're long, cash and hedge funds are short. Well, either they think we really are going into some form of double dip or the bottom still isn't here. They're trying to be perfect or they're making a big mistake. Uh, so that's something quite interesting I believe for watching your own individual portfolio.

They do believe that currently. Uh, this is the short interest that we're seeing in the United States Uh, it is a chart here on the right side. short squeeze in the United States is less clear to us in other words. we've seen Short covering here in the United in in the Eurozone, But look at this.

you could see almost no drop in short interest through December uh in the United States and into the early part of January TBD How uh, that has moved in the last uh in the last week here. But a lot of information about how uh, ultimately exposure to equity uh is is by no means uh, high or excessive. If anything, it's low. So I think that's that's quite fascinating.

So uh, we'll see how things move here. Cash and treasuries? Uh, catching up with Equity flows. We've got cash and corporate credit in Demand year today. Okay, so plenty of other charts and information from Barclays, but uh, something here to consider.

Are we potentially near the bottom of that uh of of that macro cycle? And again, for me, I Think the big question is where Where's the Black Swan and I Suppose the idea is that nobody knows where that Black Swan is right. But what we do know is there's a lot of repositioning happening in Investments Whether it's again, hedge funds going uh for for short positions or mutual funds being Loan cash. One of the things that I'm paying attention to actually is advertising, and we know that advertising is expected to slow by five percent in 2023. The consensus in 2022 was actually a uh, it slowed down or sorry, a growth of about Uh 10 and that is now slowing to about five percent in 2023 and potentially falling as Um or Rising, then again to 8.5 growth in 2024..

Now the reason I bring this up is because personally, there's a position that I hold that I think is actually going to really benefit from this movement in advertising. So so if you look closely at this here, you see advertising in consensus boomed about 21.6 in 2021, 9.9 of 2022, only 5 in 2023, and then 8.5 in 2024, so not actually going negative on Advertising. But what's remarkable is even though advertising is slowing down, you have this sort of rejiggering expected in where advertising spend is going and one of the biggest markets that it really seems to be benefiting from. this recruit or sort of remarking or redesigning of advertising spend budgets is the U.S Connected TV advertising sector.

You can see here, it is expected to have tripled from 2020 to 2024, from about 10.9 billion dollars in 2020 to 17 and 21, 21 and 22 20 nearly 7 2023, and then 31 in 2024 according to emarketer. Now what's fascinating about that is I think there's one play that is worth paying attention to and that is the Trade Desk. So if you are thinking about that macro cycle and you're looking where are stocks and positions that uh, you know, maybe they've been beaten up over the last year trade deaths down about 20 over the last year. Uh, and and how are companies positioned to potentially take advantage of that shift in advertising? Well, Trade Desk might be one of those to consider for that sort of bottom of the macro cycle play.

Again, not calling an exact bottom, but something to pay attention to. Now, one of the reasons we're seeing an explosion in Connect to TV is because Disney is introducing advertisements via Connected TV to their platform and this follows. Obviously, Netflix's move into Connected TV advertising now Connected TV via Microsoft via Netflix excuse me is provided by Um by Microsoft. However, Connected TV for uh, companies that that Disney owns like Hulu are provided by a trade desk and we expect trade desks to be heavily involved in providing ads for Disney Plus Us.

So I think there's a a pretty substantially exciting opportunity in Trade Desk, and when I look at the actual fundamentals of that particular company I I Kind of like them, take a look at just some of these notes. Here Some of these notes, by the way, are notes that I've put together with course members. Oftentimes in the mornings, we'll do course member analysis on certain stocks either that you're looking at or that I'm looking at. We'll either do this on real estate.

we'll do this on stocks ta, you name it and you could join those and get lifetime access for those using that final coupon code link down below which expires January 30th, which is just in a few days. Go to Metcaven.com Join to learn more, but take a look at the statement of Cash Flows for Trade Desk. This is from their earnings report ending September 30th 2022 We've got 1.3 billion dollars available in free cash. We'll see that on their balance sheet.

We're adding about 125 million dollars in free cash from operations, which is incredible is an incredible cash flow here. If we look at free cash flow, we're well above 90 mil. This is a smaller company of course, but Revenue in the last three months of 2022, growing at 30 percent now, they did have a one-time boost of GNA for their well. I Mean there could be future booths here, but they had GNA explode here in uh, In in 2022.

Uh, in the three months ending in September relative to 2021. I Actually think that's a positive Catalyst Now you might think that's crazy, but most folks aren't paying attention to the fact that this G A boost was actually in my opinion, a one. Well, I look at it, it is heavily based on a one-time CEO stock comp payment. In other words, we're not expecting to see that kind of GNA expense boost again for future quarters, which could actually boost EPS substantially from where it sits.

Now, it's positive. Uh, it's been positive. It was positive in 2021. Uh, it was slightly negative for the first first nine months of 2022.

This, the stock comp payment didn't help. Uh, but uh, positive Here Again, in 2021. Positive 2022 Q3 And so, in my opinion. Well, while we're kind of on the edge there of of, uh, profitability, it's a company that's growing revenues phenomenally.

Uh, and uh, once. some of these one-time expenses Fall By the wayside, EPS growth could look pretty dang phenomenal. Uh, and it's a player in that connected TV space that's really, really killing it. Uh, so so here are just some notes that I wrote about that: Uh, A CEO expense Platform operation costs 17.7 of Revenue Uh, and uh, they've got pretty decent margins bringing income uh from operations uh to about 26 percent uh of of their Top Line Not bad.

So uh, then we have, uh, let's see here. this is uh, this is just an example of of potentially a company to look at. Uh, near. Well, I mean most most of the the text style and advertising style plays have really Fallen by the wayside in this macro cycle.

So I'm I'm really paying attention to what do I think is potentially positioned for that bottom of macro cycle. Uh, Trade desk could be one of those, so it's definitely one that I'm paying attention to. Uh, and I think it deserves a high allocation and uh in ETFs Uh, whoever. maybe managing ETFs out there? Pretty fascinating.

So um, that gives us a little bit of insight into ads. a little bit of insight into sellers where we might be in the macro cycle. Curious to know what you think in terms of where we are in the macro cycle, so leave a comment Down Below on that.