Hey everybody on facebook happy february, 24th, 10 days from valentine's. It's this week in housing. I've got myself and david and there is a lot to talk about. We were talking offline before we got started here around really what's happening in the market, if you're really paying attention - and i know you are - there - is a lot of uncertainty right now.

There is uncertainty around interest rates. There's uncertainty around policy now remember policy until it's locked in is just a conversation so uh. It goes without saying. There's a lot of uncertainty there right what's going to happen with 1031 exchanges, what's going to happen with first-time buyers, who's going to get credits, who's not going to get credits.

Remember all of this are just those david says it all the time headlines that do more to terrify than to clarify, but we will get into a little about today. We're also going to talk about um, what we're calling the roller coaster of march until may. So as we sit here right now, i want you to think about this. Before i bring david in, we are this saturday.

It'll be basically call it 343 days since the lockdown think about that 343 days, since the lockdown. Now, all of us that are that are watching right now, whether you're with me live or you're watching this in the future uh. You know, we all remember the uncertainty that that created. We also remember what happened unless you were in pennsylvania, new york city and a few other states.

What happened march? Nothing. The whole world fell apart right, everything stopped, but then in april may june july the numbers went bonkers. What do we know? The year-over-year numbers are not going to be the same in many cases and david david's going to speak to this, the numbers will probably go down, which means the headlines will start reading things like real estate. Sales are down because they're doing a year-over-year comparison.

If you did that from may to may what? What do you expect? What happened? My friends, all this says to me and to you is that now more than ever, we need to be the knowledge broker. We need to be the knowledge broker. We need to be the one that is bringing certainty to the marketplace, taking the terrifying headlines and clarifying what they actually mean. What is the difference between proposed policy and actual policy? What is the comparison of interest rates which we're going to show you today and what's really going on? So there's no one better to do this, my partner in crime david good morning? How are you doing my friend we're good good morning glad to be back and uh? You mentioned that that we're two weeks away almost from the the lockdown, the start of everything we know now is coronavirus.

I don't think any of us would have said on the front end of that. You know tom, that it would have gone down like this, and you know there's some things like that. I think in life, we're probably better off. Can you imagine if you know what what people would have responded to if we would have known everything sure but uh, but glad to be back glad to talk about this and you're right and here's what i would underscore and what we're going to talk about today In time those times of uncertainty, people follow the certain and really today, let's talk about what we know.

You know that that is certain hey, so so really quick, i'm just looking to see. I see uh janelle ralston is down the street right here in the great state of texas. I see adam foster from edina who i just spoke with. Yesterday, great company kicking ass this year i see uh tammy harmon in the house, not telling me, where she's from but just saying good morning, so really fast for all my friends out there watching um, you know dave, and i were talking about the the success of This show on on because we see it showing up in what you're posting in the social comments you're making and the emails that you're sending.

Yes, we get a lot of people that watch it. Yes, there's a lot of numbers associated to it. All that's great, but the success of this show is getting agents out there saying and doing the right things to be the voice of reason in the market. It would mean the world to me if you would tag two or three friends that need to see this or you would share this because look at the end of the day, the more people that see this, the more people understand.

What's really going on and they're gon na make better decisions to make better decisions to buy and sell to save more money to do all the things to to not freak out. So we got a lot of stuff to cover today, but i'm asking you share it with a friend tag, a few buddies and buckle up, because we have some really good content to share with you so david. Let's talk about mortgage debt reaching 10 trillion dollars. Why? Don't you take control the slides and, let's educate our friends out here, yeah it's a big number.

10 trillion dollars came out. The fed announced that uh in the past week. You know, let's go back to what we talked about uh last time we were together. Two weeks ago we talked a little bit about how's the market yeah.

You know you remember it and i i misspoke on something i tried to go back through the comments. I said january and february of last year, meaning 2020. I think i said 2019 yeah we're two of the best months in real estate that we've seen in the last 10 years. Okay, and where do we sit today? You know from a metric standpoint we're seeing more showings we're seeing more pending deals, we're seeing more out your mortgage application, we're ahead in our metrics uh year over year from two of the best months, how we started 2020, then we know we just talked about the The chronovirus the pandemic comes through, and you know really is, is, will be looked at as a historical event right.

We're gon na be looking back on this for for tens of uh of years, hundreds of years for that um as a historical event, and so you know where we sit today when we talked about uh. In addition, last time we were together not only how's the market, but this talk of bubble. I think some of that fed talk, kind of kind of flames, the or feeds the flames of those fires. So, let's talk about that and let's let's get you the information to be able to have that conversation as this topic comes up so fed released.

This mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, surpassed 10 trillion in the fourth quarter. That's a big number increasing by 182 billion by uh to 10.04 trillion at the end of december. So when they come out and say, consumer debt is almost at 15 trillion dollars. Mortgage debt makes up 10 of that call it two-thirds of that, and and that's a big number.

You know, mortgage balances have never been over 10 trillion dollars in this country, and you know when people read that uh going back to what you said to start out with. You know the headline that that's that's, that's a shocking headline right now, as we look at this, i think we you know, homes are appreciating, we sold more homes. Last year we talked about that. What did we expect would happen, but we have to be educated about this topic and be the knowledge broker, because it's going to come up and as we go on this roller coaster, talk of bubble, talk of debt.

Talk of you know, what's going on is going to to be one things that buyers and sellers are looking at, it's going to be talked in the media and we need to be educated. So what we want to look at as well in that same report by the fed is household debt service ratio for mortgages. Now, as always, all these slides, you can go acts that access them and try kcm forward slash tom ferry. I know somebody will put in the comments there.

You can go grab these and dig into these reports. If you want to, but what's important here back at the housing crash, this number was 7.21 and today it sits at a rate lower than going all the way back to the 80s 3.85. Why is that important? Because it gives you a picture across the country of leverage by the consumer specific to mortgage the way the fed develops this ratio is they take the total quarterly required mortgage payments divided by disposable income across the country, and what we can see is consumers aren't, as Leveraged as they were back in the bubble that again gives us the you know the solution or the answer uh in one's respect to the bubble question not the only answer, but we can look at it and go okay. We can understand mortgage debt in totality uh for the consumer, and this gives us a real good answer, but you know the other thing that's starting to come up and people are talking about is well.

Okay, homes are appreciating, people are refinancing they're, taking some of that money out. We've got an updated look for you at cash out refines, but before you do david david before you do, i got to bring this up, so you got 138 million homes in america and you know you - and i have been a little troubled by the fact that, Depending upon which report you're reading somewhere between 39 to 42.1 percent of all homes, have no debt right like zero mortgage, so that's a huge number on 138 million properties. So when i look at this 10 million dollars or 10 trillion dollars, it's almost a hard number to even say sure. I think we need to unpack that.

I think the the average person listening right now needs to say: okay, if there's 10 trillion dollars in debt and 42 percent or 39 of homes have have zero mortgage right. What does that mean? My first response was, i mean i want to see from the comments. What does that mean to you yeah? What does it mean if you have, if you have 10 trillion dollars in mortgage debt on 138 million homes, and you got 39 to 42 percent that have zero mortgage? What does that mean? If that's a historically high number, wouldn't that mean home price appreciation has gone through the roof because david, don't we also have the data on you when you look at 10 trillion dollars how much equity there is in all of these houses. Also, this is one.

This is just another one of those examples where, when the fed puts this out, it's an important number. People should understand it, but they're going to go. Oh, my goodness, and you said it it's going to be a bubble again. No we've got more equity in properties.

Today than we've ever had david, i mean you, you tell me, i'm seeing people saying lots of equity. Yes, that's it i'm listening, but speak to that kind of off the slides. Just for a second, you see all the the comments coming in here. Yeah we just in our research team.

We just went through a series of reports on equity and i believe i have these numbers. If i'm, if i'm off by a percentage or two 56.7 percent of homes in this country, have at least 50 equity, i mean strong, strong numbers relative to equity across the country. We know those. You know we we talked about this last week when we were two weeks ago.

We were together. Even the people in forbearance have strong equity um and that's what i was uh. What i'll get into next is. There is a there is a stark difference today and how people are handling the equity in their homes and the debt which you know if there's a debt to have mortgage is good debt right, um, it's debt that allows you to leverage.

It allows you to to grow and we know what that means. That means equity used to start a business equity used to help. You know a family member go to college equity used to to improve uh your life, and so i think, there's a lot there that we want to remind people as they see that trend 10 trillion dollar number. So before we go to the next slide, uh big shout out to anita from south africa thanks for checking in with us today, love it uh, hey anita how's the market in south africa.

Talk to us! I want to see it in the comments zelda. How do we find this information for our local area, so david insights, for uh, for zelda and for everybody here uh to pick apart, the local data? So they can say, here's what's happening nationally. Here's what's happening locally, zelda great question, yeah! It's it's a very good question when we get asked a lot a lot of this information that we look at now, mortgage debt - i don't know if you're going to be able to find this locally. You can certainly ask your local board.

You can talk to your local uh bankers association and see what they have yeah a lot of the other numbers. Are you know we can pull right out of the mls. You know when we're talking inventory and other things like that um. You know people have asked forbearance numbers.

How do i get those locally to my knowledge right now? We don't have that locally. You know you can. Certainly again, i would direct you to your board to your broker to say, hey. How do i find this out locally? Uh and apply some of the same methodology to what what you have going on in your david.

I would also say to everybody the harder it is to find the greater the opportunity for you to be the first in the market to present it. So, even if you just google um looking for real estate appreciation in city looking for uh, you know loan to value on average. In you know, sarasota florida someone is pulling up this data locally. Somebody is writing an article about this, whether it's a blog or it's in a local.

You know, newspaper be the first, though, to shoot a video about it so be resourceful, use the mighty google um. I got another uh question that just was brought up david on the 138 million homes in america, with between 39 and 42 of them having zero equity um. Do we have any optics on the 21 million investment properties? The non-owner occupied investment properties is the one. Is it just implied that the 138 million you know the 21 21 million investment properties? The number is the same in terms of no mortgage versus equity and all that stuff is, it implied, yeah yeah, i think the the question in that there is is the the numbers that we've seen are on.

You know properties just in general, so i think you could. You know, make a an estimate that that would cover the same thing. We do know too, and i think more information is going to come out about this. Is that the mom-and-pop investor, which is the majority owner of investment properties in this country, are you know getting squeezed a lot of times in just the current state of what's happening? I think you're going to see more and more information come out about that.

I also want to go to another thing. I think. As we go uh down the road, there is going to start to become a discrepancy in which states are more heavily impacted. Think back to 2008.

You know the areas that were it was not all the same. So we're going to see more and more of that, which i think to your point tom's makes that more critical to be able to deliver the local information to the clients you serve love it. So the one thing i'm going to i just sitting here as we're doing this live there is a company i invested in years ago called remind r-e-m-i-n-e remind.com. I think they cover about 89 of all the mls's in the u.s.

When you go into your mls, if you, if you have access to remind so sorry for my friend anita from south africa, you don't have it um, you actually can access in in again, state by state regulations will be different in terms of what information is available. Texas is different from arizona is different from new york, but there's a pretty good chance. You can go in there and say. Let me say this: entire zip code show me every house with no mortgage and then they'll give you the mortgage uh data inside of remind so i just forgot that, so you don't need to google it it's inside remind yeah and oh by the way for listings To look at that and say: do you know how much equity you have in your home today right huge piece right now, yeah well, side! Note really fast, while we're on that point, everyone wants another listing so so consider this part of the reason why i invested in that company years ago.

Not only was the guy one of the top real estate agents on the planet and then you know switched basically to doing this full time and now again, almost every mls in the country. Has it what i was really moved by in the original demo david? Is he actually said here? Let me give you an example of how you can attract listings using this. Let's take you know this area of dc. Let's look at every home with no mortgage, that's two stories and the owner is 80 years or older.

Yeah he's, like those people, are most likely to sell sometime in the next five to 10 years and the fact that we could do that query. Yep, look at uh, yes milton just said. I need to start using remind and again i'm very open about it. I invested in this company because i saw it as a massive data plan, a great listing tool so just for you know full transparency so check out remindpoint or any other data site you.

I don't care just get the data but david. Let's go back because the question always is going to be that home equity cashed out, which was part of the problem of the 2005 six seven run. Is everybody sucked all the equity out of the out of their houses, which really created a problem? So i think we should go back to that slide and let's continue on with uh with our education here, yeah. Let's, let's talk through this real quick.

This is that slide and if you've been following this week in housing, you know that we've uh updated this. We had it last year we talked about it um, but yeah. What stands out is the housing crash. Now this is cash out refi by year, at the height 2006 of you know, the housing crash 320 billion dollars, uh cashed out as cash out refi across this country.

Where do we stand in 2020? We only have the data for the first three quarters as soon as i have quarter four i'll bring that but 103 billion right now. That number is going to go up, but i wouldn't anticipate it going over - let's say: 150, probably 130 or 140 billion lashed out. Last year in cash out refinances, you know half or less than what we saw back in the housing crash and that's not factored for inflation and home price appreciation, or anything like that. Why is this so important? Go back to the 10 trillion dollars in the debt? Go back to what you said tom and the number of homes, our own free clear.

What do we know from this? People are handling their equity differently. Yes, we can't say that enough times we have to be just as powerful with that message. As you know, the fed is with there's 10 trillion dollars of mortgage debt in this country. Both are equally true, um, and so this gives us a picture into that equity situation.

I think what's great is i would literally, if i'm watching this right now, my friends, i would, i would go old school dave robles right, his longtime client of ours who he would take his camera. He would set it up over here. He'd go live on facebook and he would go okay, so this is what's going on and of course, what everybody's concerned about is there must we must be near a bubble with foreclosures and then he would show them the next slide right right, david. Let's go right to the next slide, because this this this slide, i would do five videos on if i was an agent watching this right now, yeah yeah.

This is the this. Is the look at foreclosures you'll. Remember this again, if you've been following uh this week in housing, the number of foreclosures by quarter going all the way back to 1999, we've highlighted there. You know the foreclosure crisis, the housing uh crisis and in in crash, and even up to today, the average per quarter of foreclosures in this country is just over two hundred thousand per quarter and we sit at an extremely low number.

As of the fourth quarter. Just over fourteen thousand uh foreclosures took place. We know the moratorium on foreclosures has been pushed out and i would expect the administration may push it out again. I'm not here to speculate on that, but i i do think, that's a that's a probably a safe bet, but at any rate at some point, these are going to come back okay and we certainly don't wish that on anyone that's been impacted by the the pandemic.

It's a it's something that happens in our business. We can help those people, you know given the uh the equity position of many homes across the country, given the lack of supply and available listings across the country. But but again as we look at uh at everything going on from bubble to debt to how people are using equity to another headline of foreclosures are doubling tripling quadrupling whatever the case may be. We need to be armed as the knowledge broker and tom you, and i were talking before being armed with this you're able to you, you're able to have the answer and answer the question even before it's asked right.

I want to tell you david. I was just literally, i grabbed my phone and i don't want to get lost, trying to find it, but you guys published a slide uh that i immediately shared and something that you know. Anyone that follows me on instagram or facebook sees that i'm constantly sharing some of these slides, the one about um, the map of the us and all the equity right. All of the home price appreciation like that map was so powerful.

I'm gon na challenge you and your your team at kcm, i'd like to see the same map based upon this data based upon the number of foreclosures or even the forbearance numbers. I think it'd be really interesting to show that as a contrast by state. What do you guys think yeah and that's again, that's a question they're asking we're trying to get state data for uh forbearance and foreclosure. Well, we can get it for foreclosures.

I thought you said forbearance um. You know that's one thing that that i think is going to start coming out, but i'll definitely relay that to the team. All those you know, graphics are on the kcm instagram. You can go grab those and look at those uh as well.

The map that you just mentioned but yeah, i think it's, i think more and more. You know as we go throughout this year and into next. What we're going to find is that you know, being the knowledge broker in one part of the country is going to mean one thing, and it's going to be in a different thing. Another part of the country relative to some of these issues that we're going to face um based on the economy based on a service-based economy and all the you know the implications that go along with that in the pandemic and here's the reality.

It goes back to what you said tom that headlines are doing more today to terrify than to clarify yes, yes and right now, where we stand relative to the data relative to the all the the information. I would expect the next few months to be a be a roller coaster. The point that you made on the front end business dried up. A year ago, okay you're going to see you're going to see some spikes in data and, let's just play this out, debts rising transactions are rising.

They just doubled. They tripled that consumers have questions about that and then immediately after that, we're going to see that drop, because we crammed so much business into a couple of months last year. So we need to be able to walk people through the roller coaster that they're gon na see in headlines and things out there uh in the coming months. So i'm seeing a lot of people saying where do i find that map uh? You can find it by just following kcm on instagram: that's where i see it and immediately shared it.

Uh alison khan connor can sorry allison. If i'm saying that wrong david, we know that only 325 000 properties are in active forbearance and likely won't have a big impact. But what about the 200 000 per quarter that haven't been foreclosed on in the past year? Might all those foreclosures at the same time right, create an issue, and then i i don't. I can't click on the see more alison to see what else you're asking but david.

You got the just the question. I think so well she's saying if, if if we know, we've got 325 000 properties that are in that you know danger zone of our forebear and if we've been averaging 200 000 foreclosures a quarter. If that's normal, aren't we suddenly going to see a wave of foreclosures? Potentially that's her question? Well, you know this has been an extensive topic. We've been talking about tom for the last six months.

The quick answer is, we do not see a wave of foreclosures that overwhelms the system. If we play that out - and we said, 320 000 homes came on the market tomorrow, the market across the u.s would would consume those properties quicker almost than they could come on. The market now i don't think that's going to happen. What experts are saying right now is a couple of things we got to think about this logically, and i think that number's going to grow beyond 320 000.

- let's just that's where we're at now, but likely to grow, that's going to be a rolling number over the Next, two years, everybody does not um exit forbearance at the same time because they didn't start at the same time. What's going to happen, people are going to come off and some are going to be in trouble and they're going to say. We need to sell right now or we're going to go into a distress. Sale.

That's you know short sale. Whatever the case may be. The second you know tranche of data. Is people they're gon na come back and go hey, we're gon na.

Do a modification or rework with our mortgage company. We think we're good and they're gon na probably end up going. You know what we can't afford the home we're gon na need to do something yeah, you know we're gon na have to do that and then experts are even saying within you know a year and a half to two years, we'll see more come through. So i think this is going to be a steady flow again going back to the need for us to be talking about it, but everywhere we see experts talking about it.

We do not see a spike in distressed properties like we saw in uh in the housing crash. There are a lot of fundamentals for that in the real estate market, but the biggest one of that is the under supply. We sit with right now, 100. Okay, so i saw another question: uh from joanna evans: can these slides be shared joanna just go to try kcm dot com forward, slash tom ferry, try, kcm, dot com forward, slash tom ferry all the slides? Are there so david? Let's talk about interest rates because one of the things that's terrifying people is, oh, my goodness rates are at 2.81 yeah and look i'm looking across the park here.

The place that i bought, i have a 2.2 interest rate, so 2.2 is bonkers. 2.81 is also bonkers, but rates going up, scares people sure yeah. It's a matter of perspective right now, right if you said uh, even you know a couple years ago, how you can get an interest rate at three and a quarter or you know three and a half people like wow, that's wonderful, right! Right! Historically speaking, it's great! I think that the the interest rate scenario that we're in is forecasted for this year to be very favorable, but we're in some choppy waters right now. There are a lot of questions about inflation, the fed all those things.

So, let's talk just a minute about that. Give you that information to to to be able to again be the knowledge broker and uh and talk about this with uh with clients so hear from mba expectations of a faster economic growth and inflation continue to push treasury yields and mortgage rates higher? What's he saying there, the economy is improving, interest rates are rising, it's a good thing right. We all want that to happen. We don't want interest rates, necessarily rise.

We want the economy to improve and if that's a byproduct we'll take it right. He goes on to say, since hitting a survey low in december, the 30-year fixed has slowly risen and last week climbed with high highest levels since november 2020.. So you know whether we saw the bottom of rates - i'm not here to say that now it looks like we may have, but the forecast going forward is that rates are going to continue to rise now. Fed uh chair was testifying before congress yesterday and i'm not.

Supposing that everybody wants to become an expert here in the mortgage business and not suggesting that, but the one thing we can remind our our clients is: the fed does not determine long-term interest rates if, if, if you want to give them a, you know kind of A visual of that for the past 30 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved in unison with the 10-year treasury rate. Okay, we saw that start to go a little bit different last year, a little bit haywire because the fed came in they were you know. So much liquidity into the market buying about mortgage-backed securities, but we can look at the 10-year treasury rate, uh and say: okay, what's going to happen with mortgage rates and here's a look at the 10-year treasury going back to october yeah, it's going up. Okay and you're! Gon na hear that, then your treasury's going up.

What's that going to mean okay, and so i think we can go okay, you know what we're seeing some fundamentals in the market here that suggests the outlook experts are saying: interest rates are going to to start to rise. Now, let's talk about the the good news of this, this just came out um end of last week from freddie mac. It talks about mortgage rates. Moving up cso is reaching its highest point since mid-november the 30-year fixed rate averaged 2.81 percent.

This week, economic spending has improved due to the most recent stimulus, but supply chain shortages are causing downstream inflation leading to higher mortgage rates. Here's the important part, while there are multiple temporary factors, driving up rates. The underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low three percent range for the year. That's good news! Right! If we say hey, you can finance a home 30 year fixed in the low threes.

Is it going to cost more than where we've been yes, but still a very, very favorable rate and here's tom here? Here's the way you know you and i talked about this and communicating that is - is literally the perspective of where rates are at as compared to you know the last five decades going all the way back to the 70s, we're in a very, very good interest rate Environment - and i think everybody listening today realizes that, but as this news comes out is there's talk about interest rates are rising. We want to be able to answer that and give perspective, give clients the truth, trust their intelligence and show them. It really is a great great time uh, you know to buy ultimate even better time to sell. You know in the market right now, so it's interesting david uh, the conversation that i'm in right now - and i know every good agent watching this is on the same page.

Is you can only say to people? No. Now is a great time to buy. You know interest rates and yeah right. I mean like at a certain point: can we just be honest like after a while that just sounds stupid right? Instead, i'm telling you my friend watching right now.

The agents that are winning at scale are going old-school. Hand-To-Hand combat texting, one-on-one, emailing and making their phone calls to every single person in their database. Armed with the understanding of hey, did you know home price appreciation in our area over the last two years has gone from x to x, plus whatever it is, and did you also know with interest rates now at two point, eight one percent right and x number Of millennials coming into the market that want to buy sellers that decide to do anything in 2021 are putting themselves in the best possible position like being being the the agent that is willing to scale truth and really connect with people, at least with the people. Inside.

Your database, like the argument i've been making david for the last almost now two months, as i say, grab your grab your phone go to your contacts, click on the very bottom of the z right as z as in their last name or the pound sign below It and when you get there and it says 2 487 people - i got 50 bucks as you're, not willing to call all of them and have an intelligent conversation, we're all looking for the way to not work and solve the problem. We are in a situation right right now in the housing marketplace that those of us that are willing to make the calls to do the effort right to spend two hours a day on the phone three hours on the phone, and it doesn't matter text one-on-one, email Phone calls private dms on facebook instagram. It doesn't make a difference. It's up to us, so my friends, we've got to do the work, so i'm just stressing to you with you know so much gratitude and appreciation for david for kcm they're, bringing us all this information, but it doesn't do anything unless you execute on it.

Yeah so make the phone calls shoot more videos use this stuff in your email, marketing in your email communication, get it into your social, your your social post, but understand like it's up to you. You got to make the phone calls david, i'm i'm i'm giving a little rant here. It's the coach, it's the coach in me. I can't help it.

No, i i it's absolutely you're right. Here's! What i would say today go to the kcm blog. We wrote a blog post today on the number one thing sellers have more of today than they've almost ever had and that's leverage right right go read that go shoot a video on it. Go send it to somebody go to go talk to somebody about that.

What does that mean to you? We talk about the three things that every seller wants in the market right now, but that starts with you have leverage yeah. Now is the time to name the deal. Now is the time to to be in the driver's seat and - and i think using this information being able to answer the questions before they're asked - is what what's required today. Yeah yeah, i love the question of you know how has the pandemic and covet over the last 12 months made? You look and feel differently about your home yeah.

Like that question, i love the question at what price would you be a seller? I know you don't want to sell, but at what price would you be a seller and david i'm blown away by those that are that are that are taking advantage of that, whether it's in text or email or social or even in like you know? Yes, no polls on instagram stories, those that are in ex are executing are winning and winning big. So so, as we wrap this up uh, i want to again say thank you to the team at kcm. Make sure you go to try kcm.com forward, slash tom ferry, download all the slides and execute my friends. It is the greatest degree of separation between you and any competition in the marketplace so happy.

I think it's wednesday right happy wednesday, my friends get on the phone and let's go help some people david i'll, see you in two weeks get to work. Buddy i'll talk to you guys soon take care. You.