All right so david, let's bring you on screen man uh good morning, how's richmond, good morning. It's uh, it's exciting to be back with. You know doing this with this week in housing, it's been, i was thinking back. You know it's been four weeks since we did this.

You know we were all together at the summit a couple of weeks ago and um, it's a great way to start off a friday, so i'm excited to be back and excited to be with you and talk. Uh, just about what's what's happening again to your point, uh over the last several weeks, uh what what uh what's going on? So thank you absolutely, and you know like it's just an ever-changing subject matter, although i think what it's been encouraging to me, too, is like. I i just saw your slides that you're going to show to everybody in a second and i'll: ask you to again remind them. Where can they find those resources when they're done for themselves? But the thing i've noticed is um, i'm thinking of the of the old wayne wayne gretzky quote, which was skate where the puck is going to be right.

Right and steve jobs made that famous even more famous when he used it as a quote, but i'm thinking back to all the things that you and tom and steve and others have said about the last six months of these reports and i'm like we keep skating To where the, where the puck's going to be the trends have looked good, and so i having the chance to host, i want to say thank you for the research keeping current matters is doing for compiling these reports and, if you guys, are watching live like give Them a little clap emoji a thumbs up. Let's all say thanks to keeping current matters um, we tom ferry, just love this relationship and we're super proud of the work you guys are doing and we're grateful to be a part of sort of broadcasting that message out to agents all over the u.s all over Canada all over the world um just because we want to keep people moving forward, yeah, yeah and listen. We are, we are grateful for uh the relationship and - and we always say you know this - this doesn't happen unless great agents like you on the call today go out there and get it out there and we've talked about being the knowledge broker, and so thank you For that and jason, you know you were up in our office last year in richmond virginia and the 26 people that support and do all this research do all the uh. You know the work to develop these insights um.

You know i was thinking back uh to the start of this, and you know we said on this week in housing. We started this on the other side of this. On the other side of quarantine, there's going to be more business for those that are out in the market than they can uh. You know they can handle, and we've certainly seen that right we're going into the fall.

It's been busier than what we expected, and so your point of the wayne gretzky quote of starting to look now of okay: let's go into the fall, let's look into 2021, like we talked about at the summit and um. I'm excited to cover a lot of that information, but thank you for um for for that, and thank you for all the folks that you know do you know join us on a friday, because without you none of this happens. You know, and - and i always say you know, the reason kcm was formed was to help families feel confident when buying and selling a home and and that's our goal with all this information is that you can then go out in the market. Help families feel confident help them make decisions.

Uh is as as they you know do that, respectively, their housing going forward, love it. I'm reading these comments. I love this one uh from uh diani. I think i said your name correctly here in lake tahoe guess how many days i have not had off with a laughing emoji.

That's right! You know it's a story across the country. You know i'm looking at my own roster of coaching clients, because i coach about 40-ish right around 40 coaching clients for tom, ferry, um and they're amazing individuals and teams, and so many of them, like we we've been looking over this week like here. We are we're in september and it's like i've already done as much or more than i did all of last year right the work pays off. It absolutely pays off um, but everybody's hustling.

I remember like when we went into the summer. I told my coaching clients: okay, fourth quarter, just ended you're now in overtime and now we're like into triple overtime, so, just kind of echoing the sentiment of work work work. I know. I know that everybody's been busting their tails right now to keep doing the work and i'm here to kind of like blow the whistle and say keep going yeah keep going.

I think i think some of the you know the things that we talked about when you - and i were kind of i was you know, walking through the slides with you. I think, there's some some reason to say: okay, look. There are some things on the horizon that we need to keep doing the work for to be ready, uh. You know for uh for for other pieces of this market to to open up, and you asked me something that i want to mention uh.

You said you know we're gon na go into the slides here in just a minute. I know somebody usually drops it in the comments there, but you can get all the slides we're going to talk about today at mykcm, so mykcm.commykcm.com forward, slash tom ferry, you can download all of those and we want you to have those and use those um. You can go there now. What's that i just put it in the chat for us and i'm logged in as from perry.

So i tom ferry not really perfect, perfect, okay, cool um, so i guess let's segue into it. You get a lot of good stuff for us. Like you said, it's been four weeks since we've done one of these live streams, uh for all of our attendees. At the success summit from two weeks ago, you gave a stellar presentation, um and i may ask you to kind of recall some of the things you shared there to see if they're still holding true two weeks later um for anybody who has not watched summit, it Is available for livecast uh go to tomferry.com, it's worth it's it's! It's a lot of content like i was doing my clients.

We did the event in three days, not four, but really there's like six days of content sandwiched in there. So it's it's a lot of good stuff but david. Why don't you get your uh slides up and let's jump into the content and see what's happening, this housing yeah? Let's, let's go ahead and kick it off and you know here's the way. I would kick it off, jason is you know we talked about it's been several weeks since we've done this.

I want to do a little bit of a recap and let's talk about some of the things that have happened over the last several weeks and and i'll start with with unemployment. You know we saw the unemployment report come out a couple weeks ago, um economically. Let's talk about where we're at relative to recovery and again you know these are these are subjects we've been talking about. Jason you've been very, very good about uh.

You know helping people understand. Okay, how do we, how do we um in a thoughtful way, dispense this information? You know, because we talk about unemployment. We talk about things that folks, that are impacted we want to. We want to do that in such a way that um we help people understand what is going on across the country, because the the the other side of that is someone makes a decision or they they don't make a decision because they feel you know.

I you know that maybe they've been misinformed or they have a thought about what's going on in the economy, and we want to be able to be that knowledge broker, just like you said. So. What i'll do is i'll go ahead and share and, let's maybe start with unemployment uh. The the most recent unemployment uh report came out a couple of weeks ago and was published by the bureau of labor statistics uh for august that we're at an unemployment rate of 8.4 percent across the country, so um that in itself i i want to.

I want to bring a little perspective to that in a couple of ways you can see here: unemployment from the beginning of the year and if you're asking me what's the story here is unemployment went up in march and april and it's gone down since may now. I wouldn't suggest that 8.4 unemployment is a good number uh. We want to see that continue to fall, but we are seeing it continue to fall. We want to see more people go back to work now you may be looking at that, or someone may even say um, you know.

Well, i heard the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent or throw out another number. Interestingly, in the report they said they went back to the overstatement question. If you uh remember that from what we've talked about and said, you know, if there were an error, the upper bound and likely their words were likely. Overstated number would be nine percent.

Uh. Nine point one percent to be exact, but they published 8.4 percent, but just like we talked about at the summit, realize that you know out in the media out in everywhere. There are agendas today um relative to just the uh straight up the the election cycle that we're in that people are looking and scrutinizing this report, and i would even argue that the next coming uh unemployment report will probably be the most heavily scrutinized unemployment report. We've seen in quite some time, uh because of the agendas that are there at play.

One side going it's way better than what what would you think it is one side saying no, it's way worse and there's other factors and uh being able to cut through, for our clients. What's happening is as our job today. So as we look at unemployment, i want to bring in a a little bit of perspective and a comparison you know. Just a couple of months ago, we were comparing what we were going through to the great depression.

Now this is a slide. That's built comparing uh the great depression, great recession, oil recession, to what we're experiencing now of the number of months of unemployment, greater or equal to nine percent. And what do we see right now: we've been through four months of unemployment, greater than or equal to, nine percent versus a hundred and eight in the great depression, even even the great recession of 30 months uh there. So i i don't.

I don't say that to minimize what people are going through or the situations that are uh felt across this country and and those that want to get back to work and can't and their their needs of businesses that have not made it through here. But i want to give perspective to what we're going through as compared to other downturns. Of course you know the the the next thing i would hop into is: what are experts saying about the future of unemployment? That's what we need to start looking at and uh, and so this is the most oh sorry this is the most up-to-date uh projection from the wall street journal survey of economist. Okay, if we're at eight point four percent right now, they're projecting going into 2021 to be at six point three percent and you can see beyond their five and then four percent in 2023, so that employment unemployment rate starting to come down slowly.

And we certainly want to see that continue, uh to come down as more people go back to work and and the economy recovers, because i think that's the big question right now relative to the economy is, you know, can the economy recover as people are still? You know out of work and uh and we want to see that happen. So as we as we look at unemployment there - and we say: okay, look it's heading in the right direction, certainly not where we you know would want it to be right now, but but heading in the right direction. I pulled this quote from the wall street journal. Talking about the greater economy right now, it says the us economy and labor market are recovering from a chronovirus related downturn more quickly than previously expected economist said in a monthly survey.

So i'm going to pause right there for a second. We talked about this a lot on the front. End recovery, certainly housing market recovery. As we look forward, uh is recovering quickly.

We talked about there's going to be more business on the other side, just like we just said for those that are out there and uh. You know and folks coming back, we know, january and february. We started in our business two of the best months in over 10 years, and we've seen all that demand come back in in folks, saying, hey home is is very, very important uh to us and the needs that we have changed during the downturn. They go on to say business and academic economists polled by the wall street journal expec expect gross domestic product gdp to increase at an annualized rate of 23.9 percent in the third quarter.

That is up sharply from an expect expectation of 18.3 uh percent growth rate in the previous survey. So we're seeing gdp estimates being revised upward, which is a good thing. We still got a long way to go, but we want to see upward growth relative to gdp and measure the overall economy uh as we go forward. So i think there are positive things to uh to look look forward in the economy.

Uh, cnn and moody's just released uh what they call the back to normal index, and this is very interesting. I won't go into. They bring a whole lot of data and information uh into uh into this calculation, and you know if you're, a kcm member, you can go to all these slides. You go search through the uh, the report that they use for this.

If you want to really understand it, but you see light blue across the country, which means those states would be anywhere from 80 to 90 percent back to normal uh relative to where they were before the coronavirus. Uh got started an encouraging sign. We see a lot of canonically speaking, say: yeah, absolutely well, there's there's a lot economically speaking that goes into this, but yeah, that's the main driver. We see the the brown states there at 70 to 79 percent, so some states lagging behind there and then we see hawaii at the bottom, less than uh than 70 percent back to normal, a state heavily dependent upon tourism, and you know uh and hit very hard Relative to you know folks not being able to travel there.

You know not not being able to uh to to do and participate the vacations and things that they would normally go there for, but i think an encouraging sign. As we look across the the country - and we see a lot of states, a lot of areas that are are coming back to normal, more more uh, you know room to to grow and more room to cover uh relative to getting back to business as usual. If that's the right term um, but but an encouraging sign, as we look at unemployment coming down in the economy, you know uh getting back to uh to where it was prior to this you know - and i would jump in on this uh and say as far As getting back to normal is concerned from a marketing standpoint, something i think you as agents managers brokers could be thinking about is - and we've talked about this on past uh this week in housing. Episodes that we've done is more interviews like video interviews, things of that effect with local business owners.

It could be a zoom or a stream yard or whatever the protocol is for social distancing as far as as long as you're following regulations show people how they are back to normal in some capacity how they are moving forward, because i think what that will do Is instill a sense of okay? This is what people are doing. Here's the way to do it correctly right, and that is just you positioning yourself as hyper local sort of a digital mayor, or at least a a mayor in some form of knowing what's going on around town, not just in housing but in the community at large. How are people doing business? So i guess the call to action is hey. Have you done like i'm thinking about those restaurant shows that a lot of agents do or local business interviews, that a lot of agents do uh talking to gyms and owners and that sort of thing go get the information to be the resource.

I see an opportunity there anyways wanted to try that in i, i think about that too. Two things that come to mind, i always think of kyle whissel in that uh, north county eats and but but think about this too think about the business owner that we can help. Inside of that i mean those are the folks that need it right now, and and not only can we get out there and say: okay, look, people are getting back to normal, but we can also help them in a big way, and i'm thinking about stephen kim One of our rockstar coaching clients and coaches in toronto - and he does a show called foodie fly days and he's done it for a long time. It's an instagram, youtube, facebook type of show, and he just basically shows restaurants off around town where he's typically ordering their food.

He started doing takeout additions, early and and the whole pandemic and everything and he went to go grab takeout one week for his family to take back home and the owner knew that he was out there getting take out like the whole curbside and came out and Just said, thank you thank you for, like our business uptick, because of your show, thank you um. So to your point david, this is an opportunity to do good in your community, and i know that so many of you, i really practically all of you - should be seeing yourself as um, i'm a community representative on some level, my job as an ambassador to this Community, that's my job and so from a marketing standpoint. This is a nice little goldilocks moment where it fits together. So get an action.

Yeah, that's a it's such a such an important point. Yep all right, keep us rolling! You know. I think that the the next thing i would bring in here so, let's just go through a real estate market update. You know how is our business doing? There's been some some changes here.

We'll talk a little bit about pricing i'll bring in the uh the gnar market recovery index. If you recall that we we've talked about uh several weeks, uh that they released over the summer, you know which is a is an index that looks at demand, supply, price time on market and and measures recovery in the housing market. Uh we've talked about the the dip off and the return back. We are above where we were um.

You know when, when this uh this index, you know kind of peaked in february wow, and and now we look at that and we can say with confidence. There were so many agents that that watched this week in housing and got out there and said you know: hey, look yeah, we're looking at a v-shaped recovery and and what do we see in housing for sure a v-shaped recovery? I don't have all of the information to cover today. If i can tell you in the wall street journal survey of economists, the overwhelming majority say the overall economy is in some form of vv, where it's a traditional v or kind of think about a nike swoosh. It's really the angle of that of that return, and so we're seeing that we're seeing the business come back now we're going to talk about.

You know what what are challenges that we face too here in just a little bit, but i think it's it's safe to say you know we talked about at the summit the idea that we're likely through a lot of the pent-up demand that happened over the summer And settling into a market that's above or ahead where we were last year and that's a it's a very, very positive sign. You know we've been go ahead, let's just say if you would kind of go back and echo what you said at summit, because one of the things you shared at summit during your talk that really made an impression on me, was simply looking at year over year. The volume of sales um because i personally i was like wondering - and i didn't have the data you did - that's why we had this relationship. Is it that there's really low inventory it's an absence of supply of product? Therefore, prices are driving it up and that's part of the recovery, but you shared that actually the transaction count was i'll.

Let you i'll, let you give the data if you have that handy um, but talk to us about year-over-year number of transactions just so we can keep that in mind along with the recovery yeah. I think there's there's a lot in there, so the the if you weren't at the summit - and i would highly highly encourage you to purchase the on-demand copies of this. Not just for all of this information we covered, but there's you know, there's so much more. That you'll get from that and that that's an easy decision.

So what we talked about at summit was there are two things that we want to look at. We want to look at pended deals and we want to look at uh purchase applications right. So if you go back to what we talked about showing time think about that, we saw the dip down and we know week over week each week since the quarantine folks have come out and said. I want to look at a home whether virtually or in person and we've seen that that business come back.

We then begin to look at okay are those going into deals and what we saw is over the summer um week over week, we're seeing those deals. You know grow and so a lot of pent up demand that we got through over the summer and we've largely settled into a market week over week, where we're up a percent down a percent. Very um, very steady, is the word. I would use same thing on mortgage mortgage applications.

We saw a peak over the summer and moved into a steady market. Now. The interesting thing about that is the steady market, as i'm calling it on purchase. Applications is about 30 over last year, wow on pended deals.

This most recent week was up 25. Now there is some a mix up there of uh labor day and which week it fell on this year versus last, but consistently it's been up around 20 percent, and so even though we we've come into the steady market, we're ahead of last year, now the the Piece that we we finished up with there is the forecast from lawrence yoon at gnar, the chief economist saying here we sit, you know, knocking on the door of the fourth quarter of this year with a projection to beat 2019's numbers for existing home sales. And again i go back to where we started this. We said there is going to be that volume uh.

You know in transactions on the other side of this and i think there's a lot uh jason, that we've talked about to point to 2021 and even more volume that that's on the horizon i'll get into that. We'll get into that. But the analogy that i use there is you're flying down the road doing 90 miles an hour and you see a speed trap or a speed limit sign whatever it is up ahead and you jam on the brakes you slow down to 65. You feel like you're, like going a lot slower when you're actually going really fast and doing the speed limit, and even maybe in some cases, a little bit ahead of the speed limit.

Great analogy, i love it, um hey! Why do you get your slides off for a second, i i am seeing some commentary and i'm going to put you on the spot. David yeah go ahead and comment around some of the devastation from the fires and then also, i think, about the hurricanes sure, with with some of these forces that work, are we seeing any impact or do we have any data or intel on what's happening or could Happen with that, you know i i don't it's way too early to say: how is that going to impact? You know. Typically, what happens in our business in any of those situations is a freeze is literally put on. You know on the financing, at least because they need to be able to verify.

Is there any destruction? Is there anything happening to the home, but it's certainly too easy. I mean too early to be able to tell what impact that's going to have. Okay, all right, then future episodes we'll see in report all right, uh back to you. If you want to keep us rolling forward yeah absolutely so, let's get into i'm going to share here real quick, a familiar slide.

You've seen, which is is the is the pricing projection on future home prices now uh? If you remember this and you've been watching it, a couple of things that have changed here, there were some red on the right side. You know we were saying. If we look at these nine experts that the the majority of them were saying appreciation, but we had a couple that said depreciation in in really over the time. Uh they've shifted from you, know, depreciation or slight appreciation to uh to more appreciation and - and i think that's the the story right now of the market that we're in is a lot of people going.

Hmm, we didn't think it was going to going to kind of go this way. Those of you that have been following us and have watched these experts. We even said you know corelogic here, that's now saying 0.6 appreciation we think they're they're off on that and - and the interesting thing is the adjustments that have been made to future home prices across the board have been up. Fannie mae started out at 0.4 percent appreciation.

Now they're saying 4.4 appreciation, zillow went from depreciation to appreciation and core logic went from 6.6 depreciation to 0.6 and - and i would offer that - and i would bet jason if we want to bet on that today. That's going higher they're going to uh to raise that david yeah. Just would you say i don't think i'm going to take that back. You know i i i think this is a.

Is another area relative to you know we're always looking at the macro us view, but you know, appreciation is always going to be governed by supply and demand. Okay - and i think this is an area where we can bring in the local view of what's going on in our market with the you know, supply challenges. We may have the demand the over demand that we're seeing in the market and say look. I i think this is you know, what's going to dictate going uh forward for home prices relative to where we are uh in you know the the certain nuance of your market so very interesting to look at that as we look at uh at uh.

You know just the pricing question going in the next 12 months now. All of this, i would offer, is being fueled by demand, um and and and certainly that's a com component, largely driven by interest rates right now, and what we know coming uh from showing time is that home buyer traffic jumped again in july uh 60 year-over-year increase In showing activity uh led by the northeast, you can see every one of the the areas of the country 40 to 50 76 in the northeast. If we look at that in a in sort of a line graph here that uh, the the jump in showings in demand, is true across uh across the country, so uh very interesting to to start to look at this information as we get it in relative. Just to to the white hot demand: that's uh, uh, that's happening across the us really is, and i was thinking about what you said like kind of taking a couple of these slides together as far as a marketing opportunity, if i were selling in the local market, I would love to get.

I think you mentioned. Some of the studies came from nar in terms of they estimated were up in in terms of volume of transactions. By about 30. I believe you said right um.

I would reference that on a national level and then do the research locally to figure out. Here's what's going on in our local market right and help people understand the nuance of that market. That's going to position you as that right. There is your next market update video just so people can see: okay, wow um, that's a confidence! Booster, that's that's another piece, but it also would show where the opportunities might exist.

So just i'm gon na just try to jump in. If i see a video or a marketing piece or an idea yeah, i think i think that's our job and and again, we've talked about that several times here of taking this look and comparing it to what's happening in the in the markets and the neighborhoods and The areas that uh that you serve and that's that's the win today and it's what i would argue people are looking for uh if we're gon na be the true knowledge broker and we're gon na be out there uh as the trusted advisor and everything that that We say then: we've got ta deliver that i would argue uh to two people now, there's there's an interesting study that i want to share with you, and i really i want to park on this jason, because i think you can bring some application to this relative To what our job is and how we get this out right now and it's um, it comes from the fannie mae home purchase, sentiment index, and so this study goes out and asks uh responded to your buyers or sellers. Is it a good time to buy or sell now, let's, let's park for a minute on the dark blue, which is a good time to buy? We saw that dip down and i'll use. My cursor here you know right in the the quarantine time come back dip down.

You know a little bit a little bit of action there, but i would argue relatively uh. You know in the same area we're we're back to maybe not uh upward trending yet, but but we're we're in the same neighborhood. The shocker here is that maybe it's not a shocker, but the uh the good time to sell, fell off the map. I think largely driven by people's um fear of having uh people in their home.

There could be folks that say: look it's not a good time to sell, because we don't know where to go. I think that is a as a you know is something going on with folks, certainly today, and that has not come back if anything, it's probably half of what uh what it would have been. You know if, if we were in a normalized market and had not gone through the downturn of the pandemic, so what that there is, you know we we've seen. You know a lot of activity this year and we've seen a lot of activity with a a lot of people thinking i don't want to sell my home right now.

You know, and - and i always think about that when i saw this - i think what happens when we start to get some good information where people feel comfortable, whether it's uh, you know a concern about health and safety, and i'm i'm saying we should take those very Seriously, i'm not minimizing those, but i think that that that that number and that projection going forward uh when that does happen, is going to mean a significant uh thing for our business yeah. So i would ask the question in the chat just for everybody here like we saw the gap we see and again any market uh stocks housing whatever like people buy stuff based upon feelings sure. So it's really predicated on sentiment. They use the word sentiment, but it's.

How do i feel? Am i bullish bearish? What am i about? Buying a house selling a house i'd be curious. We see that buyer demand is, you know. Clearly, we know it's red hot and it's holding the line because - and it might feel very red-hot just due to a limited inventory - i think i don't know if you can, but there's transactions are up anyways but i'd be curious. What the folks watching live right now would put in the comments and say: what's behind sellers, i think you wagered a couple of opinions.

What's what's keeping sellers in your market in your opinion, um just thinking as objectively as possible, yeah yeah. I think it's a good. I think that's a great question: i'd love to see that too, as people just weigh in on hey, why? Why are people not selling you know in your market? Now, let's go back to the buyer question for just a minute, because you said that i think there are um i think buying uh is in that position to your point, because there is demand and and it's out there i also would go back to jason. There's buyer demand today because the needs of individuals have changed.

There are a lot of people looking going, we don't have the space or we want a different space or we want to go from urban to suburban. You know dense to less dense. You put out us, you put out a thing on instagram the other day that talked about uh suburbia statistics in terms of folks moving out of urban areas, but their needs have changed. Space has changed yeah, even my wife, and i were talking about um our house, and you know, we've talked about selling it at some point and uh trying to anticipate like the kinds of folks who would uh buy it in terms of their needs and size and We're like well this and that, and we had a conversation about just like home office uh place for schooling, uh, faster internet.

Just some of the things have changed to your point and i think there's gon na be somewhat of a permanent. I think effect on that. I'm gon na look at the comments and see if anybody's kind of selling high okay, so i'm seeing so no inventory other markets where they want to move. So williams says that there's no inventory mandy said they also have to buy and they don't want to overpay.

For the purchase, um no place to move because of inventory issues, so i'm seeing that pretty consistently it's kind of hard to scroll through comments on a live stream. I hear yes um, but that's like here's another one, coming in no place to move um waiting to see how the so here's one from lisa jackson, who said cape coral order, uh retired population, is waiting to see how the economy will be affected. Post elections, we talked a lot about that at summit. I think that's very real yeah sentiment.

I i do want to talk in a minute about the objection of. I don't want to overpay, because i think so, let's frame this out for a second, because i want to park here for a minute. You showed us this great slide that talked about buyer demand and seller willingness, and it is all just supply and demand economics um. What happens in a supply and demand economic environment when there's a lack of supply and an oversaturation of demand prices go up, we're seeing that happen right now, right, um and i would argue, we're seeing that in every area of the exit.

I think what you said is, i think, there's a couple of things that make my make me get fascinated, because i would my normal brain would have said. Well, that's just because there aren't as many sales going on, but that's not true, because there are as many sales going on there's more sales going on according to the numbers you revealed. So what is it? And i think you hit it right on the head that people's needs are changing and so the need to buy the need to look for something else. The next thing, i would argue, is greater than we've seen in a long time.

Would you agree or disagree or offer a different way of framing that? No, i i think it is, i think, the importance of home due to it being the epicenter of our lives, uh in in certainly in my lifetime has uh has escalated more quickly than ever before. Now i do think you know, as as we get back to and depending on the business people are in, you know, working and a little bit more, i'm going to call it normal lives and, obeying you know, local health and guidelines, and things like that. I do think it is changing the way people think about what they want in a home, and you know i. I use this statistic from nara that two out of three buyers right now are looking to buy, based on the potential to work from home, and i kind of go.

That's the person that says hey. If this happens again, i want to be ready, may not mean i'm going to necessarily work from home, but i want to anticipate there were things that i would. I was not thinking about in february or march that all of a sudden i go i'm thinking about that now. You know absolutely um.

At uh summit i taught a breakout session on facebook ads and one of the ads i trained on um is how to do an ad that says: here's a list of homes with pools homes, with big backyards, homes with home offices, homes with fast internet connection or Those types of things, but just anticipating the demands of folks but again, so what do we do and i'm going to give you the chance to talk in a second about what you wanted to share? What do we do from a marketing standpoint when we see this gap between buyers who want it? Sellers who aren't willing and and i want to so the common reason and the thread from the comments is basically along the lines of where would i go if i sold my house, i'm gon na get caught in the overpaying for the next place. I'd go and i think objectively, that's true. I think what you said is also interesting that there may still be, and i think it probably i think it probably has a bearing on where people are located on some level and just you know what is the case count like and so forth sure um. But i think there are probably a lot of people who are uncomfortable they're.

Like i'm sticking this thing out, i have uncertainty. The sentiment is uncertain and i think what you said and that's what i want folks listening for, because, if david's right and we start seeing positive news about - i don't know - i'm just making this up about - maybe vaccine progress or hurt immunity or i'm not an epidemiologist Or anything like that or a doctor, but if we start seeing things that instill confidence in a future a light at the end of the tunnel kind of effect, what could happen to folks who maybe had been on the sidelines? The answer is, they might say, we're ready to roll, they might have been waiting, and so i would say from a marketing standpoint uh to be ready for that. I've been talking to my clients about hey. If you have buyers who are - and i saw one person's comment about buyers - getting beat up and multiple offers, they're losing steam, that kind of a thing i'd be having a conversation to say.

Hey look be listening out for some positive news about this, because that may be a very good tell that we should have our eyes dotted t's crossed ready to pounce for some type of a lagging inventory coming to market. Does that make sense david? Would you yeah on the validity of that yeah? I think the so let's uh there are. There are two things that stick out to me about. That.

First is the very real um situation of somebody saying i'm gon na not sell right now, because i don't know where i would go. That's that's that's reality. The second one is there is no doubt there are people that have not made decisions because of their uh. Their fear of uh bringing people into their homes and i'm not even saying uh.

That's not a legitimate fear, but but sure at the point that we get and i'm gon na put all this in the category of good news and that that could come in a number of different forms and there are opinions about vaccines. There are opinions about herd, immunity, their opinions about everything, but i think if we look to the future - and we say okay at some point - those things are going to start stacking up. Then people will go okay. Now we can we've been sitting here, the family that says you know what we need to do something different, that the the couple that's downsizing.

That says you know we really don't need this uh this size of a home. I think that's what we're talking about uh right now, yeah, i think so, and so some of the marketing ideas that come to mind for me is you know tom at the summit, talked a lot about a tool called remind or whatever, but the ability to basically Populate a list of i don't know i'm imagining in my farm, who are absentee owners that i could start positioning some of this data to hey by the way um we're seeing i mean, and you use that i got it from you guys too. There was a a study from corelogic um at the end of q1. I think that said the average american homeowner had something like 170 000-ish dollars in home equity or something like that.

Your team said it to me. Don't quote me: um you're off seven, it's 177.! That was really close. It was 177 000 that was at the end of q1. Most markets have appreciated right and so doing the research to figure out what that is, but it's like hey so we've been at like one of the ads we were teaching in summit is running it out on facebook, whereby you're targeting, for instance, absentee owners.

How do you do that? You could go to remind get the list upload it as a custom audience, and it could be a postcard too. It doesn't have to be a facebook ad, but the script is basically hey. The average american homeowner has 177 000 in home equity right now per core logic. At the end of q1 in our market we've seen x percent appreciation.

I'm not saying this, is you exactly, but you could be sitting on a pretty big treasure chest of equity. How many months of rent would you have to collect in order to equal what you could sell for today and walk with cash in hand? Does that make sense david yeah? I think here's what i would say about that is in our market today that that logic thought gives people options it does and in more than ever right now people have gone hey. I need different options, and so i think we want to be positioned when the person says okay. I do want to do that that that we're the choice david, i got it you take.

That put me put that slide back on the screen: real quick, which one the buyer versus seller willingness. Okay in you send this out to your farm area as like a letter or a postcard as a survey and say here's what we're seeing. According to the fannie mae home purchase cinnamon index um, and you like circle it and mark it up as a paper and then like copy it right. Buyers are really in the market right now.

Sellers, don't think it's a good time to sell we're seeing appreciation at x. Will you fill out our form and tell us why you think folks don't want to sell their homes right now and try to collect data, but what i think this does, if you send it out as a survey, is it actually gives the information where they go Objective brain turns on and says: wait a minute look at that right there. I see all these buyers you want to buy and why isn't it a good time to sell and we have our needs and again some people may not move because of some of the reasons stated. They may not feel comfortable yet, and you can't control that sure they may not.

They may be moving into a marketplace, that's going to cost them more than they gain on the sale of their home. I get that, but at the end of the day this goes back to something you said david. If you don't get the information out, that's kind of your job to get the information out, and i know a lot of agents are probably feeling this right now. They're super super busy right now, like i haven't, had a day off in six months.

So when am i supposed to have the time to create this content? And the answer is like that's: what kcm makes content for right and then localizing it, but i would say to you as a coach, i would say that you've got to find the time you've got to make the time in your day, where you're getting the word Out about what's happening in the marketplace, otherwise you're being reactionary in your own local marketplace versus a leader and what we know during in any kind of a business like there was a study from banning company that talked about um. What happens to businesses that assume a position of leadership during times of hardship or crisis or recession versus businesses that don't and tom shared this at the summit as well, and they had study after study after study. That said, when businesses basically shrink and contract and they just become reactionary and they stop spending and they cost cut, and they do all the things that seem like the right thing like the fight flight or freeze the flight kind of stuff when they do that, they End up kind of digging their own grave in terms of future recovery opportunities, but the businesses that assume that leadership position they get remembered and they kind of just take off. If you look at the i'm imagining the chart in my head right now as it happens, but i would say to you if you're busy right now, i get it, but as a coach, i'm saying you got to get it.

You got to get it too, like this kind of data, getting the word out being the leader being the knowledge broker is paramount not only to now but to future success in your business anyways. Let me get off my high horse back to you. Well, i think that is here's the the point that i make in a lot of this information. Is it's exactly what you said.

These are what buyers and sellers are thinking. Here's the difference, though, they're not going to walk up to us and tell us that or knock on our door and tell us that we want to put the information in front of them and have them see that and elicit that response right. And i think that is the the job and the difference maker. Today we kind of know what they're thinking somebody mentioned: hey i'm gon na kind of hold off on uh on the election piece.

I've seen several videos that people have done on the the information that i shared at summit on how real how the election will affect real estate. Putting that out there where somebody goes, you know what i kind of feel that way. I want to talk to this person so when i do feel like, i want to make a move. This is i'm well prepared because the natural trust, because you've already been the sharer of the information connection um.

I forget what you said. The thing you wanted to say was you didn't want to leave it behind. Remember that the um relative to buyers and sellers? Yes, i think it was relative to this. There was something wrong.

I think the question here is with sellers, and i would you can say this a lot better than i can jason, so i'm going to say probably not like. I need you to put it in a softer way. Okay is the question you want to ask. Somebody is, would you like to list your home now or this fall, or would you rather wait until next year when everybody else lists their home, because what we know typically in kcm, has to research, you can go to the kcm blog and search it from last.

Fall and we'll talk about it, this fall will bring current data to it as the majority of homes come on the market. As we turn the corner to the new year, the sweet spot for the seller is tailing out in the end of the year when there is less supply and that's true just about across the country in every area or or you wait until everybody else goes. You know what we're going to uh we're going to go ahead and put our house in the market, i'm looking for the script, it's in my slides from summit, a version of it one of our coaches, uh coach, jason out. New zealand wrote it i'm pulling it up to read it.

This was a letter to investors, but i think it's going to kind of address the same thing you said i was like: where was that script where's that script? It's popping my head, he talks about. Sorry, i'm scanning guys bear with me david stall, tell them that joke. You know david while i'm looking, oh gosh, no one really knows where the market is heading, but we are certain i'm just reading this may or may not all apply we are. This is also a different.

This is new zealand also, but we are certainly both government and reserve bank have their eye on cooling auckland market, so we can reasonably expect some more control measures and reading reading reading. I can't find it it's too long of a letter, but basically his gist was the same as yours: hey, listen, real estate, your home is a home, but it's also an asset and when you think about the buying or selling of assets, it's your biggest financial investment. You ultimately want to sell that property whenever you can ensure the maximum gains. That's the gain and you're more likely to do that.

I would project. I don't have a crystal ball, but i would project you're more likely to do that when you have less competition, meaning buyers have fewer options and though i don't know exactly what next year looks like based upon where we're trending and the trends have held true. So far it seems like we can expect more inventory next year. Based on what you're saying david right, i think i think we can say confidently that as more good news comes out, we can expect more inventory.

Okay yeah! Absolutely! I think. I think that, right there is that's a good line actually as we as we see more good news or resolution to some of this happening. We can expect more information and - and - and i tend to look at it in the future and go that's going to happen now. If that happens tomorrow, that changes a lot of forecast a lot of things dramatically.

If that happens after the first of the year, the middle of the year end of the year, that's what we don't know. I don't have a crystal ball and not pretending to to have that, but i do think that that incrementally good news is going to come out and more people are going to go. You know what we can do that we can put our home on the market. We do feel safe, yeah and i'm seeing in comments how some sellers are getting savvy and they're like moving into different properties or renting or waiting and seizing the opportunity.

I mean again, you think back about uh investors trying to buy up at the bottom of the market during the recession um - and it's like - i was listening to some podcasts and they're, like nobody knew when we had bottomed out until we started climbing back up. Nor do we know when we've topped out until we until things start adjusting, but we do know is that markets go up and down based upon certain variables, yeah and right now. I know that we're seeing some pretty record-setting price points in a lot of markets. So i just think trying to appeal just get the information out, like you said, and then without a hard sell, just here's the information on the silver platter.

Ultimately, my job is to help you make an informed choice and you can't do that without me. Supplying you with the right information, so here you go yeah you're, an intelligent human being make a good choice. Yeah. I think that i think the the let's talk about this.

Let's talk about what's driving all of this okay, because i think that is the the point that we we need to pay attention to, and i would argue that i would call them white hot interest rates are driving this. This was published yesterday, uh from freddie mac. The average on a 30-year fixed right now, 2.87 percent uh in in the quote here from sam cater uh, the economist there at freddie mac, says. Despite the recession, the very low mortgage environment has spurred many first-time home buyers to jump in the real estate market.

They're going hey now is the time we can buy something get the advantages of buying versus renting my plan um. Absolutely in august, the first time homebuyer activity rose 19 from july to the highest monthly level ever for freddie mac. The first time home buyer driven rebound in the housing market has come at a critical time for the economy, so no doubt uh as as the economy. The u.s economy recovers, housing is leading the way and we've talked extensively about the impact we have in our business on the economy and ancillary uh.

You know, industries that are spurred on by real estate to commissions, to you know for a new home, the supplies and the materials to build that home. So a lot of good stuff being driven by by low rates - and you know, uh the the gift of an economic slowdown is uh. You know lower rates and, as we move into a you know, a growing economy oftentimes. The parallel to that is a growing uh interest rate environment.

Now the feds said they're going to keep the fed funds rate low and uh. You know there are things that the mortgage market is looking at, for that and forecasts are for rates to stay low um. But it's it's kind of like what you said. We oftentimes don't realize that until we're looking in the rearview mirror and we go oh wow, we really had a great time a great environment, uh relative to rates or or whatever the case may be, romanticized remember when totally yeah, and that is the thing you know That, whatever is bought today at a i think, at a 2.87 or whatever they get if it's three percent 30-year fixed you'll be bragging on in you know, in 10 years, uh relative to that interest rate.

But you know what this is doing across the country is driving affordability. Now there are questions, and you just brought one up about you know. Do we want to overpay today, and i want to address that uh, and that is an idea, but you know i've covered this slide several times. The thing that sticks out is, you know, after the downturn in 2008, the years that distressed properties, the oversupply literally of homes on the market, um that uh that drove prices down and now we're seeing affordability similar to you know where we were in 2009, uh 2010.