Hey: what's up everybody on facebook happy friday, i should actually know what day it is. It's the 12th, my goodness february 12th, it's this week in housing with my friend david from keeping current matters, we're going to talk about the market, we're going to talk about the two biggest questions that are on the minds of consumers right now. You know what they are like is now the right time to buy forbearance is making me nervous and a whole lot more, and i think david. I don't want to give it all away, but we're also going to talk about the bubble, the bubble that is making a lot of people nervous, so uh david ready.

This is my new thing, we're on the clock. Let's see if we can do this in 30 minutes or less, which we know it'll probably take an hour but uh so really fast. I can see a lot of you out there just jumping on. Thank you by the way, yesterday, uh for the video that i produced, we ended up with about 30 000.

Organic live views in about four or five hours. So i appreciate all the comments and the perspective about you know zillow acquiring showing time - and you know lots of news david and i were just talking off-camera a lot of things happening in our industry right now. Remember we do this, show every two weeks for one purpose: to help you be the knowledge broker to control the narrative, the best you can by giving you data and stats. So when your friend starts saying the world's falling apart, you can say what data are you looking at? Let me share with you a series of 18 or 19 slides that can help them make better decisions, david speaking of a dear friend of mine, who's, an investment banker over at houlihan and loki matter of fact.

He's the number one debt restructure investment banker, so just so you guys are clear. I said what was like a recent deal. You did he said well when uh chuck e cheese, the little kid franchise restaurant during the pandemic, they ran out of money, so i helped them restructure their debt and, like that's a typical deal for him, he said i'm watching this kcm stuff like i need more Of that content, so i'm he's doing a talk coming up, i'm actually giving him a bunch of your slides david, so he can share some of that insight with. I think it's like his local board or something over in florida, so pretty exciting stuff, but david.

Now that i've, just kind of you know ranted a little bit here good morning, how are you happy friday? What's the good word over in your neck of the woods good morning, um, the good word here in central virginia is there's two or three inches of snow. On the ground, so it's a snow day, uh good time there so we're enjoying that uh. It is uh the 12th of february a couple days away from valentine's day. So that's right! That's right! All right! So we'll be here before we know it.

We'll share our big plans with our spouses at the end of the show, but let's uh, let's jump right into it. First of all, really fast everybody out there watching um we're gon na talk about how's the market, we're gon na answer the two biggest questions that are on the minds of buyers and sellers. So i hope you're in a situation where you can take notes where you can listen as always david. Where do they go to get the slides? It's try.

Try kcm.com forward, slash tom ferry so again try kcm forward slash tom ferry. If somebody put that in the comments - uh all the slides, are there they were uploaded this morning, so i want you to have those and use those as you communicate right tom to be the knowledge broker. That's right! So so david. The question that it's on everybody's mind: all the time is how's the market.

So i think we should write the slides and we should just attack this first and then get into those two pressing issues and for my friends out there watching live. Do me a favor tag, two buddies that you know need this information tag, two buddies. If you would, that would mean the world to me that need this information, david fire away, how's the market yeah. That is the question you know.

I. I really enjoyed the blog that uh that you wrote uh it's been in the last week about answering housing market, i'm going to give you a little bit of, and i would encourage you if you haven't read that blog go read it i'm going to give you A little bit of the the market dynamic, maybe things that you know already things that aren't going to i'm going to say. Surprise you right now, but but to be armed with that information, as you have the conversation. So, let's start to take a look uh at what the research team the kcm research team has built for us here, such good information.

You know we started watching this housing market recovery index back during the uh. You know the pandemic middle uh towards the the fall of last year and uh. You know it's no surprise. I think, to anyone that we're up past where we were when we started this uh.

You know this journey of even this week in housing and the pandemic and everything in 2020. A couple things i will say about that is um. You know really this. This index kind of fell off over the break and people just took a break, and that's that's.

Okay right, but we're starting to see that come back little shameless plug here. If anybody ever asks you, if real estate was a v recovery, you can certainly point them to this and uh and look at that relative to how real estate is recovered throughout the year. But um it's a it's an index that i think you know. We've been having a conversation uh on our research team this week about.

Do we continue to follow this? I don't know that we will, but i wanted to give you one last look at it to say hey. This is what the year ended up. Looking like - and you know, we talked about on the other side of lockdown - there's going to be more business for people that are out there doing the right things, and i think that trend is going to continue on into this year tom. You know, as as we look at that so david, i want to throw in a thought before you go to the next slide and and it's something that i'm discussing with some of my highest producing clients, everyone write this down.

You ready call every person in your database, and you know that, but here's why right the? How is always easy for people at your level david. It's always about getting to understand the. Why yeah, why i'd like to plant this seed for you ready? I believe that, right now, wherever you are in the world, someone in your database that you sold a house to two years ago just got a phone call from their manager or the ceo. The company who said look we've decided based upon the scenario we're going to stay remote and we actually let go of our lease or we sublease some space and we're down to 2 000 square feet.

So basically, you know thanks martha thanks, frank you're working at home and in that moment, martha or frank sitting at their dining room table just went like this excuse. My fridge right. I've been at my dining room table since march of last year. Waiting for this thing to end whether it was going to be two weeks or two months or end of the year or whatever it was, and now a sudden their three-year-old is running by their seven-year-old is coming by their nine-year-old is here.

The dog is barking and their spouse is working in the closet and they're gon na say to themselves. I need a house, i need a house using what you just saw right there. If you don't take that piece email to your entire database and say to them, let me ask you a question: how is covid and the pandemic over the last year changed the way you view your home? How has covid and the pandemic of the last year changed the way you view your home, the way you feel about your home. The way you experience your home that you know me i am the biggest fan of have you had any thoughts of selling.

Do you know anybody who has any thoughts of selling - and i hope you're doing that as well, but i'm telling you that question right now think about how that's going to open up the dialogue, because those phone calls are happening every day right now, every day david? Let's go to the next slide and, and we've talked about it last uh two weeks ago, you know what i mean, how that will change and really the the quote that we use is rewritten the playbook for homeownership for people that go. You know what i need. Something different, no doubt no doubt you know the next piece of this. Just to give you perspective on where, where we sit in the market, uh showings purchase applications.

Those are mortgage. Applications pending deals, existing home sales, new home sales all up year over year. Why is this important last january and february of 2019 were the best two months in the real estate business than in the last 10 years and where we sit today, certainly in these in these green metrics are above that david say that again, the the last january And february of 2019 were the best two months in real estate in the past 10 years and where we sit today is above that, this january and february we are ahead in purchase applications 17 year over year, and in last february was last january. Was the best year month, in 10 years, right tremendous tremendous demand out of the market? What's the challenge, you see the two red bars there, uh existing home inventory has fallen to 45 new home inventories down 44.

Now we talked you know a couple of weeks ago about what experts are expecting relative to homes coming back in the market, but that's the the biggest issue uh right now is is the lack of inventory and again i'm not telling something uh, everybody doesn't know already, But i want to give you perspective on how strong the market is right now, even given those restrictions and by the way for my friends that are watching and david, keep the slides up here. For my friends, okay, we're going to talk about the fact that a lot of people - maybe not you or maybe you are concerned - that we might be in a bubble right yeah. We actually we're going to cover that. We're going to look at that today.

We're going to get fort behrens, so you know if these are the things you're hearing or or worse. These are things you're, seeing or you're experiencing or feeling yourself we're going to cover all of that we're going to squash. All of that. So let's talk about year over year listings because i think a lot of people get the sense of where we're at, but this next one is this.

This next slide, you should email to your entire database right yeah. The i've got two slides coming up here. The first one's purchase applications just kind of a a reinforcement of what we just saw ever since the lockdown year over year, we've been up each week in purchase applications so think about this. As this, you know the week compared here to this time last year, again underscoring the strong uh demand out in the market a lot of that driven by people that are, you know that need something new in a home.

You get a great example of that when we started here tom, but also low interest rates. Now, there's a lot of data coming out about interest rates. We know the projection is that they will begin to rise. I saw a really good article this morning that that really emphasized the point that rising interest rates will have more impact in the mortgage world on refinances than they will have on demand now.

Is it going to cost more? Yes, as interest rates rise, it will cost more, but it's likely not to squelch that demand uh. As you know, we go through the year because again, remember rising interest rates are always that uh, that that signal of a stronger economy and as as the economy improves more people have jobs. More things happen um. That is a good thing for for our business, but the you know the the real you know image of where we sit in our business is right here.

The year-over-year change in listings um, you know green in this graph - refers to the number of new listings coming to market and the orange turning there to red is the inventory. You know the the total listings what's on hand and we're at a time right now, where it's been it's lower than it's ever been since it was recorded in the early 80s and homes are being purchased quicker than they're even coming to market we're, selling more homes And we have, you know listings coming in every month by and large in most uh areas, and and that's still that you know tom - you mentioned on the front end, so many things happening so many things to distract us right now. This is really what we need to be out there doing yeah. So before we go into the the sort of forbearance concerning question for people.

I just want to share with my friends out here watching this is a moment in time, where more of the same is only going to get you more of the same. You got to think differently. You got to look at the problem of no inventory as an opportunity to try something new i'll give you an example. What, if you send an email to your entire database right, an email right, easy fast boom done, hey martha! I wanted to check in and let you know what's happening right here in uh the you know, museum area of dallas home price appreciation over the last 12 months has gone from x to y right.

Inventory has gone from x to lower y and i field calls every day from people saying i'm thinking about selling, but the challenge is: there's no homes on the market. I have a basic hypothesis around this right, but here's basically the solution i have for my customers. Obviously, hypotheses say interest rates this that right you, you share all the things that we're sharing here. You say these are the three or four things that are going on, but here's what i'm now doing for my customers, if you are interested in having me shop for you, homes that are currently not on the market shop for you, homes that are currently not on The market, so you could sell your home and potentially only move once by finding the one that isn't on the market, simply fill out this google form and you put a link in there where they can fill out a google chrome.

I want four bedrooms. I want three bath. I want to be on this part of town. I want this and this and this i need this much of a square footage lot.

Yada yada this many and they basically tell you everything that they want you to go hunt for now. Why am i doing this because we know that 66 of the people that want to go buy that house need to sell a home in order to do the next one, and what we're trying to do with this concept is unlock with you and with the customer. Hey you know what i'd be interested in that yeah. If you can find me at this this this this this now, what am i really doing? I'm getting people to raise their hand and say i'm a research phase seller and what we know as great sales strategists and marketeers.

You can take our yikes campaign and say i'm representing a buyer they're desperate to look on your street, your neighborhood, your community, have you had any thoughts of selling to start activating them and my friends, the people that are doing it are winning. The point is simply this: before we go to forbearance, what got you here is not going to get you there you're going to have to try some different things. Making phone calls to your database is a no-brainer sending emails like this is a little out of the box, but that's what it's going to take for you to generate the inventory you need so david. Let's talk about forbearance yeah, this question of forbearance is one, and i want to say one thing before we.

We start this uh, i'm going to stop sharing for just a second here's. How this question comes up typically in people that we're talking to is i'm not sure. I want to do something right now. The three million people out there that can't make their mortgage payment right and i don't think this is going to end well now.

I want to say this: if you're watching the news every night and you're a consumer you're not in our business, that's a very logical thought. We can't forget that, and i would even say right now, tag somebody that you've had that conversation with either in your office or somebody you've been talking to, because what i want to do is i want to take you through what is happening with the most current Information because i think it is uh information right now that most people that aren't in our business don't have access to. This is an opportunity we can bring. You know the truth of forbearance and the truth of what's happening to the market and to people that are thinking about, buying and selling it.

You know i always say we don't want to convince somebody to do something. They don't want to do, but we don't want them to not make a decision because they think something else or they're or they're misled in a particular area. So let's look at where we stand. You know if you've been following us on this week in housing, you you're you're familiar with this slide.

This is the number of mortgages in active forbearance through the most recent reporting uh, the first of this month that we can get about 2.7 million mortgages uh in forbearance right now now remember that's the tool, the federal government's given us to help weather the storm and Housing uh to to say: okay, we need to make it to the other side, there's going to be people affected, and and what's the good news, bad news right there, it's remaining steady, it's not dropping uh as as it you know had been through the fall. So since we got into kind of the the november october november time frame we've kind of hovered in this, you know this line under 3 million about 2.7 million uh million mortgages in forbearance, and you know as we go through the through the year. People are going to come off of forbearance and that's what we want to start to watch. Okay, now the the this next slide.

We used it a couple weeks ago. This is the most current information again um. One out of two people that are in forbearance are in this green slice of the pie. I call those the ones that didn't need it.

They exited forbearance. They were paid in full um. You know about one in three: the blue slice of the pie, they're in some form of rework repayment plan with their bank. You know the banks aren't trying to take all these homes back and the ones in red are the ones that are still in trouble.

About 15 percent, not a lot of change in that over the last couple of weeks. The one thing that i want to i want to bring this to you. This is a cumulative period of those that left in june of last year through january 31st, so the first piece of data that we're looking at now. I want to bring you your context here with this quote: let's just look at the at the words in blue here yeah before you do just for a second, i just did a quick calculation we're talking about 364 000 people that appear to actually be in trouble.

Correct about 320 325 000, so i'm gon na go into that number, but yeah, okay, so just for everybody watching. I think this is super. This is again. How do you separate yourself from the masses we know number one? Is you execute right? You execute you win, but providing something like this and saying to people the truth about forbearance, or you know think about a headline that you can get people to like say: wait a minute like what's going on, you know: 13.5 percent of 2.7 million people are actually In trouble and again i don't know if that would be my exact headline.

My point: is you want to be the one that says? Hey you probably read about this you've probably seen the sensationalization in the news, but i wanted to share this data with you. So you can make a better decision or if you know someone that is concerned, here's what's really going on and oh by the way, if you are in that loss mitigation situation, if you're in that and you don't know what to do here - are two resources of Information, you can go to go into your local bank. This is how you do it be that person that is, we always say, providing value, but with something like this. It's it's like what we did back in the day when you were like hey if you're behind and you don't know what a short sale is.

Let me get you in touch with it's the same exact thing and david. You know if all of those and we knock on wood, nobody wishes for any of them to be in trouble sure. But if but if something happens right, those properties are going to sell and it's going to add to the inventory - and i know that sounds horrible, because we're trying to human beings sure remind me again the prior to this. How many foreclosures happened on average in a typical quarter before we kind of stopped it all with forbearance yeah about 200 000, just over two hundred thousand.

I think our latest numbers are two hundred and seven thousand uh per quarter significantly below that right now, because of the moratorium and - and you know the pullback on forbearance - i mean on foreclosures. So let's go to the quote. I apologize from rick, i don't know it's. It's really good.

Here's the word you were saying hey, i don't know if i would say this they're in trouble. These are the ones in red tom that are at risk right. These are the ones that they describe it yeah. You know that that have the potential to go into some form of distress sale or for whatever the case may be.

Well, let's look there's a lot of words here on the page i want to camp here for just a second. I want to focus more on the blue words than the white ones. This is talking about people that have come off of forbearance uh since july of last year, i'm gon na i'm gon na talk, i'm gon na say that's the majority of them. Okay, uh starting their blue, uh, 87 percent of them did so with a repayment plan in place.

Their loans reinstated, they're, missing payments deferred to the end of the loan paid off the loan, or had a loan modification in place all positive outcomes. Yes, how do we start this? There's a lot of people that think there's three million people right now that can't make their mortgage payment well 87 of the ones that have come off of it, have come off in some form of positive outcome. I'm going to say they didn't need it. They reworked it, their bank worked it out with them.

That's almost 9 out of 10 people right, and i don't think most people know that i think we have to be very, very vocal about this and over communicate this fact relative to um. You know what's going on with forbearance, the the quote goes on to say the remaining 13 percent, who left the program without a repayment plan of some sort, are the ones that are probably most at risk, but we just said going into default. If these numbers remain consistent about 325, 000 people will exit the forbearance program over the next six to nine months, not all at one time without a plan in place. Some, but probably not all of those loans will likely.

You know default or be in some form of uh work out on that, so i think keeping that in perspective of what's actually going on with forbearance. You know the narrative oftentimes is more dominated by the the 13 that you know and that assumption is being applied to all of those in forbearance. Now we don't wish anyone to lose their home and if you know, if they've been impacted in the coronavirus by a loss of job loss of income, all that we feel for them - and you know we've said many times if one person doesn't have a job, we Want to have that job, but it's not the total market right now, but tom going back to your point. It is the area where we can help people where we need to continue to be vocal, or we need to continue to bring this message uh to those that that may be coming off this year.

Right right, that's a powerful! That's i mean it's a huge quote, but it's a there's a lot to take from that again to add into an email, add into a social post share in a video the more we educate around this, the more we don't run from the data. The more we lean into the data, the more we are recognized as the knowledge broker the problem that they can trust the person they can go to and say. Look it's not me, but my aunt sally. This is a situation.

She doesn't know what to do right. Yeah we want to be of service. That's what this whole thing is about. Yeah.

I think you're right. Let's go to that next slide, because i think it's i mean again, i'm i'm the bigger fan of the all the data and the slides. Do it for me. Just keep going yeah, so this is this is the last piece of data i've got on forbearance today, but this this one.

You know if somebody were to say: okay, what happens if all these were to come? Uh, you know to the market at a you, know, sort of the same time uh the thing that people have in their favor today relative to housing, is that, as of this is a february 2021, all those in forbearance 90 of the people in forbearance have at Least, 11 equity, okay, so strong strong equity in the situation of people that are inactive forbearance, they are the beneficiaries of appreciating home prices and tom. You know: we've talked about this before 325 000 homes. If they came on the market today, we need that inventory. We don't want to see that happen to those individuals and families, but but those homes would be sold and they would likely be sold in a lot of cases above list price um, and so i think there is a way to look through this and say: okay, If you are in that situation and you do need to have a confidential private conversation relative to what's going on uh with your home and how you've been impacted, let's have that conversation because there are buyers out there there.

There are solutions for you where you don't have to go down the road of maybe what you would have in the past david. I almost wonder i mean i i'm putting myself in the shoes of my clients depending upon where you are in the country uh. This may or may not make sense for you, but maybe you bring in uh an attorney or you bring in someone from your local bank to say. Let's take a look at this 91 of the homes or 90 of the homes are in a situation where there's more than enough equity for them to sell right that are currently in forbearance, and you know nine percent of them there's still a margin there.

Right i mean depending upon where they are, and one percent they're in trouble. What, if you just did a facebook live - and you said hey this thursday at five o'clock, i'm gon na have you know uh. You know this person who's an attorney and this person for the bank and all we want to do is educate. So if you know anyone that is in this situation, you know what your rights are.

You know the things you can do, the actions you can take. The resources that are available - and i want to as you be broadcasting, be telling people look 90 of the homes in the country are not in this situation right or in this case the ones in forbearance are not in this situation. There's plenty of equity, but i want to make sure that even if just one of you is watching in my database, if one of you is in this situation, i want you to know what you can do and i don't. I don't care if you've got five people on there.

The five people you have might be the five in that red and, if you're helping them you're winning yeah. I agree. I think this is this: is our time this year to help those that that are that are going to be affected? There will be people that that will be affected. No doubt uh foreclosures will rise throughout the year.

I mean, if you even think about it, tom the moratorium on foreclosures, even those that maybe weren't, even if we don't have a pandemic, we don't have four parents. People would still go into foreclosure right right. Those are going to come back to to the market. Things are going to happen, so we will see a rise.

Do expect to see headlines. That say you know: foreclosure's doubled, foreclosures, tripled or whatever the case may be, but but it's all a matter of of okay. Do we understand? What's you know, what's in there? How do we best help people and then do the job to get the word out uh? I think it's very, very uh workable in that situation right. So so david we're right on time, and this is awesome uh the question that is on so many people's minds.

I mean you probably get it as many times as i get it just out about friends, email texts, social quiet conversations. Are we in a bubble stock market's at 31 000? Should i sell everything? Should i sell my house? Are we at 2006 or seven again, like yeah, i'm hearing that rumbling from agents that are concerned yeah absolutely from a client or two, and so i mean let's, let's just talk about it: the bubble. Let's, let's talk through that, it is no doubt a question that many of us are asking uh many uh are going hey. I see holmes appreciating very very quickly.

I remember this. I remember what happened. Are we in a bubble? I would even say look i'm going to show up here. It was the front page of the my app of the usa today on the fourth of this month.

Are we trapped in another housing bubble? It was in yahoo. Why are so many americans predicting a housing market crash, and if you go into this article in yahoo 67 percent said some form of correction or crash in the housing market is where they felt, like things were going to go. These were consumers. It just felt that way now you know as you go through these.

I can tell you this on the usa today. Article is a very positive article for housing and you can see if you can even see it in the fine print it says, but it's nothing like the mid-2000s. Now i'm going to argue relative to bubble right now, tom these headlines are going to do more to terrify than to actually clarify the situation, and that's you know that's what we have to attack in our business is: what is the truth about home prices and a Bubble, so i want to give you a little bit of data i want to. I want to first say i think this is a valid question, that a lot of people are asking and we need to have a really good answer to it.

I'm going to give you a couple of resources for that, but if we think about okay, where does this question start to uh? You know originate. It's definitely in the way that home prices have appreciated over the last several years, but last year in particular, you know average home price appreciation. This country is 3.8 percent. You know our research team built this out, going all the way back to 2000 and say what, if, what would the world look like if homes just appreciated it 3.8 each year, and then we laid in okay? What does that look like when we lay an actual appreciation? This is what it looks like.

So actual appreciation is outpacing historic, i'm going to call it normal appreciation, so we go okay, yeah! We can validate that by the data. It's a very, very logical thing for people to go. Okay. Here we go again.

This feels like and if i use my cursor we're right here, it feels like we're kind of right here, right, 0.0506 and gosh. I sure remember how that played out um and so um. You know we have. We have memories that kind of go okay.

What do i do in this position relative to my housing so that i don't get you know caught, maybe like? I did last time. So let's talk through this uh, let me give you a few uh. You know background pieces of information. The the case shell report, national home price index came out recently.

Homes appreciated at 9.5 uh last year. Fhfa said homes appreciated at 11. So i'm going to call that 10 percent home appreciate price appreciation over the last 12 months and there are others out there that give other. You know, forecasts or they're slightly.

You know around that area. Bill mcbride with calculated risk said this. This is key. He said the case shiller released today, this easily adjusted national index was reported as being 26 above the previous bubble peak.

However, in real terms, the index is about 1 above the bubble peak, meaning once you factor in for inflation home price appreciation. All of that, but one percent above, but where this conversation tends to go is we cannot sustain year-over-year home price appreciation of 10 percent. The market won't bear it well. My first, you know factual piece uh rebuttal for that, for forecasters is nobody's calling for that uh.

If you look at this home price, forecasters we've taken seven of the forecasters here, the average being about half of what we saw last year. Now we, you know, with low interest rates with lack of supply in the market. Certainly we're going to see home price appreciation. These expectations are not as high as what they were last year, because forecasters are expecting inventory to come back into market.

We just talked about an area in forbearance and those affected financially by the pandemic. That's going to be an area inventory, it's going to come back to market. You know. Two weeks ago tom we talked about the other areas.

That inventory is going to come back to market and where to be looking for those opportunities. So the first piece is, as we look at appreciation nobody's calling for that type of appreciation this year relative to home prices. Another way to to really be able to articulate what's happening in the market relative to prices. Is this graph right here when you look at inventory, which is the the orange bar going down over time? You look at home prices going up as supply and inventory goes down, price is going to go up.

This is the clearest articulation of what's happened in the u.s real estate market. Over the last you know, 10 years i'm going to call it post crash, is prices have gone up and inventory has started to to go down now, as inventory comes back into market as interest rates go up, i think you're going to see less appreciation than what We saw last year, and certainly forecasters are saying that the other big piece of of information relative if we want to compare it to the crash, is this graphic right here and many of you have seen this. It's one we've used at kcm for gosh the last. You know year or so: we've talked about the differences in the market.

When we were back in 06 and 0.708, we were in a buyer's market and home prices were appreciating today. We're in a seller's market and home prices are appreciating. What's the difference between those two one demand today is real demand back in 2005 and six was not real. You know we had inflated ability to qualify for a home loan through uh.

You know a number of different products that just aren't out in the market today, and you know, we've showed the mortgage credit availability index to show how that pendulum is swung back, so we can say, yeah people that are buying homes are qualified for them and i Think if we look even further, what we were talking about before tom is the amount of equity in homes. Today you know if somebody were to be in a situation where they needed to sell they're, not under water. More than likely, you know back in 2010, one in four mortgages in this country was under water, where today, that number sits right about three percent, very, very different from where we were back. Then you know if you want, if you want information on this i'll say we wrote a blog this week, uh kcm uh, three reasons we are not in a bubble.

Okay, we go through those share. I would highly encourage you to one to go. Read it. You can go to kcmblog.com to go, read that, but also share that with anybody.

You've talked to that thinks. You know we're in a bubble right now, it'll help. You articulate the reasons we're not. I think we always have to look at supply.

We always have to look at demand. We need to be aware of market factors, but but very very different dynamics in the market playing out and again, i'm always going to go back to this. The strength of the housing market right now lies in equity lies in the the tappable equity that homeowners have that we have to continue to remember and remind people was not there in the housing crash, and i think tom, as we start to to look at that. We can go okay, we can.

We can slay that myth, because we we have people that want homes and the reality of the u.s real estate market. Right now is that home construction and homes aren't keeping up with population. We've got to to have uh more housing for people and and bring back this imbalance from a buyer's uh and you know, and sellers market just so folks can find homes. So i think, there's a lot of information out there to refute this myth of a bubble right now i listen david.

I agree, and you know for all my friends out there watching it's 904 here in the west uh, you know 1204 in the east. I love that so many people check in on this show and and take this i just want to remind you execution - is the single greatest degree of separation. It's one thing to sit in with david and i and to look at these slides and talk about it and be interested in it, and maybe maybe you just pull a couple little confidence nuggets so the next time you're engaging with someone or in a conversation, etc. It's great, i'm gon na argue that right now i interviewed somebody on my podcast yesterday and i won't.

I won't disclose it yet, but this person is extremely educated, very bright one of the best in class in her space, and she literally said to me yesterday i don't go to the news for the news. I go to the news for drama right when i'm looking for actual data, i'm looking for i'm not looking for this stuff, i'm looking for this stuff right, i want to know what's really going on and david, you guys do so much to make that happen. I just want to say thank you again. I know i thanked you a million times, but i want to continue to thank you guys for doing what you do.

I want to stress to everybody: go to trykcm.com forward, slash tom ferry, download all these slides and do a show go on facebook use the slides. You know be the person that executes over everyone else and you will be the dominant leader in your market. You'll be the educator of your tribe, you will help more people and that's what this is all about. So david, we said what are the likelihood of us actually finishing a show before an hour we're going to be done in like 45 seconds.

We did it. I know a lot of value. We did it quick, closing thoughts from you before we uh before we see you again in two weeks. You know, i think you you hit the nail on the head even now tag somebody on this get this information out.

There take one piece of what we talked about today: record a video i've seen so many of our kcm members record this video of why we're not in a bubble. You want to put something out right now: that'll get traction and people will get people's attention. That's it right there, it's being talked about people are reading the usa. Today people are reading things, so i would encourage you to grab one thing and tom.

I will share the thanks with the entire kcm crew, but i always say this doesn't get out there without you and without great agents that go out there and share it. So no we're grateful for that. Yeah love it and i i will just reiterate: if you look at the strength of seo juice around housing bubble, i would be writing blogs. I would be doing videos with housing bubble in okc right.

I would do a postcard to my database. Saying. Are you concerned about a housing bubble right here, in name the city name, the community? Let's have a conversation. I've got some data.

You might be interested in use this information, my friends to educate and attract more listings. That's why we do this so david. Thank you. So much i'll see you in two weeks for all my friends out there share this with you know a friend or two: let's keep educating people and by doing that, we solve a lot of these problems together.

So god bless you guys have a great friday and a great weekend and we'll see you in two weeks take care. You.