All right so, my friend, if you were just over at uh my personal page, that's where we accidentally started the show so now we're here on my business, page uh, which is inviting you know a couple hundred thousand people to join in so kelsey always fun with A live show all good, all good, so being mindful of time. It's now 839 in the west. We want to jump right into the show, as all of our drifters and friends are joining us here on the show david. We want to talk about unemployment.

We want to talk about the economy. We want to talk about what the biggest economists are saying. It is always we want to talk about what's going on in housing, so i think we should go right to the deck and, let's get into what are some of the most important data points. Our clients need to know and need to understand, so they can be the educator and win over the hearts and minds of more buyers and sellers.

So absolutely take it away. Let's talk about. Let's talk about unemployment, right yeah, i mean it's the biggest story this morning. You know the the research team at kcm's been working hard this morning, since it came out.

You know 8 30, here on the east coast. Now you know just a few hours later, uh about unemployment and, and so we've got all of that, for you and and i'll share that here and you know, i want to do a little bit of a recap because we've been talking about this uh, you know, Since we started this really in uh, you know in march and then into april and start with this complete look at unemployment. Now uh we've talked about this and the nature of of this information. You know using the data with care and and being mindful that these are real people that are affected in real situations and um.

You know if we look at this orange bar right here: 55 million people at this point have filed for unemployment benefits um. Now the blue uh bar there that you see shows those are currently collecting unemployment. Now, even this week, i've been uh tagged in different posts and things that uh you know have been and put out there where somebody says there are over 50 million people that are currently unemployed right now, and it certainly gives us perspective one that that's not the The actual fact of who's unemployed right now, but but it helps us able to kind of see where people are at, and you know right now, with 16.1 million people still collecting unemployment, i'm not making a case. That's a good thing.

It's far too many. If one person doesn't uh have employment, that wants it or one family is impacted, that's too many, so we want to see that that number continue to come down. You know the big story this morning. Uh is that 1.8 million jobs were gained uh in uh.

In the last month, in the unemployment report, the the large majority of those coming again from leisure and hospitality - 592 000 jobs in that category, the overwhelming majority just over 500 000 of those - are people in the in the restaurant business. You know we talked extensively about this being a service sector-led economic downturn. You can start to see across the line items there. I won't go through each one of where jobs are coming back slightly ahead of what forecasters you know, we're saying that they would like to see, but you know i think the the uh reaction to this jobs report has probably been uh lukewarm by commentators.

I don't see anybody jumping up and down and going. This is amazing, but we are heading in the right direction. We just need to see see more of it. The unemployment yeah go ahead before we.

Let's go back to that slide just for a second and, and you know, jason and myself suggest. I want your comments here as well. What i want to stress to everybody right now is again: you know we want to. We want to help unfreeze the market of sellers that are concerned that know that they can sell their home for a premium know that they can get the lowest interest rate that they probably ever heard of and yet they're concerned, to make the move, because they're uncertain About the economy, they're uncertain about unemployment, they're uncertain about how you're going to help them get into the next home.

When i see this and knowing that this just came out, this is a video you should shoot today. This is something you should talk about today on facebook today on instagram live. You should post this to linkedin and ask for hey. Is anyone else excited to see that 592 000 people in leisure and hospitality have regained their jobs, i'm so happy for every one of them and david? I love your point.

Hey we had 55 million people file. We still have too many people that are unemployed. If one person is unemployed today that wants to work that's too many yeah, and yet i'm thrilled to see that our economy, we picked up 1.8 million jason thoughts on that before he shows that yeah i almost got a picture of the. Whenever you get a linkedin reminder that congratulates somebody on a work, work anniversary or something like hey, we want to congratulate or celebrate 1.8 million fellow americans who are back to work right now, give it a heart, give it a like um, good news.

I mean it's sharing good news right now, whether it's an instagram post, an instagram story, re-sharing kcm's, post screenshotting this and doing it uh, making it a video igtv doing try new instagram real make this your first instagram reel. But whatever you do like this to me is worth celebrating, and good news is good news right now. No doubt use it up. Yeah yeah, and if you look over the last three months, we've seen about nine million jobs come back after you know everything that we know it's happened and it leads us to this.

The you know, the bureau of labor statistics published this morning, the unemployment rate at 10.2 percent - and you know the story there is we went up in march, we went and we jumped in april and we've consistently come down since then now, what's important to to kind Of frame this right now is it 10.2 percent we're really kind of in the upper bounds of where we were back in the great recession. You know in in the housing crisis, and we all certainly remember that, but just to put that into perspective and tom, i say that and jason. You know a couple of months ago we were talking about. You know these these dramatic headlines that do more to terrify than to clarify, and so you know this clarifying look.

We want to continue to see this thing you know edge down and and certainly are seeing that, but it puts perspective in to where you know where we sit right now: uh relative to unemployment, absolutely one of the one of the stories that we've talked about here. Uh is the idea of core unemployment. Now core unemployment takes permanent unemployment keeps that takes off to the side, temporary unemployment, because we expect those people to get their jobs back and then it adds back in what is defined as marginally attached and think about that as people that that aren't looking for a Job right now and interestingly, we we started to say: okay, we're starting to see core unemployment rise in this country and - and we just saw that drop you know, by by two tenths of a percentage in july - we're going to continue to watch that, but again good News we'll take a win where we can get it uh in the employ unemployment story, but again, comparing this to april of 2010, where in core unemployment we're at about 10 and a half percent we're still at uh. You know almost half of that uh and in ultimately good news relative to to where we sit going forward um with unemployment in this country david.

Would you take just a moment and redefine core unemployment, so people are clear on that sure quarantine. So this is a debate. Really that's gone on forever of how do we measure unemployment in this country they're going to people, people that say we should do it this way. We should do it that way, so the unemployment rate that we talked about at 10.2 percent just decided to go is temporary and permanent unemployment filings.

Okay, those are people that are saying. I lost my job, for you know a temporary moment, or this is no. This is permanent. My job has gone away.

Core unemployment is a factor of those that are permanently unemployed, then takes out meaning removes temporary unemployment because we're going to say, okay, those people aren't going to be long-term unemployed, they're, going to get their jobs back. At the point that you know the business can reopen, or whatever the case may be, but then adds back in those that are uh. You know that haven't looked for a job, so that means those are what they call marginally unattached workers, and that rate right right now in this country stands at 5.7. So it's it really just.

I show this to give you a perspective of what people may say in the market uh relative to what's going on with unemployment. So before you go to the next slide. I'd like to you know for all my friends out there watching first of all happy friday. Uh, if you were again, if you were on my other page, and you saw that we had to stop because we went to the wrong page, and here we are on the right page.

Thank you for bouncing over with us before we go into the next slide. I really want to get some perspective. We have a lot of people watching right now. I see michelle goodridge, who i've known forever.

Uh marianne devito, one of our great coaches, brett woods, i'd love to know from everybody out there. How do you plan to use these slides? This is stuff that the second this show ends. In my opinion, you should take you. You know mykcm.com forward, slash tom ferry download all these slides and you should start doing live, shows immediately in my opinion, but i want to know in the comments.

What do you plan to do with just those first, three or four slides so david? It always takes a second because we're live on facebook, let's go into the next one, but i want to watch and see what the comments are and i'll bring up the ones, i think, are critical. Absolutely i'm going to show two other slides to give context here. Relative to that conversation and and the first one here is just the breakdown we always want to give this to you and this pie chart does such a good job of visually communicating nine out of ten people right now are employed versus unemployed, and i think that That point of how we process this information, i want you to keep that in mind and then the story of temporary versus unemployment. You know situations across this country as it continues to go down now.

We want to see that continue to decrease, but but the interesting thing is, you know just uh. Just a couple of months ago we started talking about more depth less length. We want to look at the depth, meaning the you know the the number of unemployment that we want to say how long this graph continues to get uh. You know smaller relative to what's happening with unemployment and really visually.

If i you know, if i were to mouse over here, brings in perspective to where we we sit with unemployment relative to the great recession, so i think tom, your point of being able to deliver this right now. Deliver this to the to the market. Uh is what we, what we absolutely need to do: jason when you see this slide more depth right that when you look at that slide, what is the video in your mind, right, more depth, less length? How would you frame that video? What would you say my initial thought is, i think, about what my broker used to tell me when she trained me in the very beginning of my career. She would always say real estate's, a long-term transaction and i would say something in the video to the effect of look at this chart.

Look at the years. Imagine you're living your life out over the next three to five years. What decisions are you making today and where do you expect you're gon na be in three to five years, because real estate's, a long-term decision? It's a lifestyle decision, yes and helping people frame the decision from now to where we think we're going in the next three to five years and then saying: oh, you know what. Maybe it is a good time to get locked in at a monthly price.

I mean rates are so low. Maybe it is a good time to do that. Right now or maybe it's you know what we should wait there. Their instincts may vary based upon their circumstances, but your job as an agent as a knowledge broker is simply to help people make informed choices.

You talked about in our first live broadcast on the other page. You talked about like taking the emotion out of it, not because there is a place for emotion, but i always thought of myself when i was selling before i was just doing coaching. I always thought to myself: you know what my job is to be that objective third party to help people make informed choices, so they can move forward, powerfully based upon data and facts or at least uh forecasts, and i would that's what i would do. Where are you going to be in three to five years? What decision you need to make today to position yourself for that? That's what comes off kind of i love it and the thing that keeps going through my mind and again, you know we got so many great people out there watching right now that are just you know: brilliant marketeers and now get a you know, bacon and think About all these ideas, i think a lot about um, the value of a home and and the perspective that i always want to drive home with people is, you know, look you're watching right now, you're a rock star agent.

You know hey search portals, do their job transaction coordination does their job. Your job is to help people decode. The right decision right, yeah, you know is this: is this home gon na maximize joy and profit in my life now and forever right, like that's our real job, it's helping them figure out. What do they truly want and if somebody's stuck in the weeds right now saying but the whole world's falling apart and the economy is falling apart to be able to show them this slide and say i hear you, but i, but i think you might be thinking We're over here or over here and not seeing where we're here and and regardless of maybe your opinion of that is a home still important to you, yeah a place to raise your family still, i mean i, then i would go to that emotional side tom.

Absolutely. I think that point right there. I want to say this in the data and we're not i'm not bringing this data in it's one thing truthfully that i want to talk about at the summit. I don't - and i can tell you this with the data we've seen and you and jason feel free to disagree with me here.

There's never been a time in my lifetime in such a short period of time where the value of home has grown greater than the last four months. I mean it's, it's shocking. It is shocking the the number of people that are saying this is important to me. This is important to me.

Homeownership is critically important right now, as as the epicenter of of our lives. Yes well, and it's even more than just the emotion it's straight up, the functionality of a home. Totally i mean people are being like. You know what i need.

A home office i need a pool, i need whatever they might need or want, but the functionality of a home speaks volumes because our lives are lived out there every hour every day, right now, yeah, so we're. Let's, let's transition on this. I think people got the point: let's talk about the economy because there's you know we, we know we're talking about the housing economy and it is thank goodness it is there yeah. But let's talk about the overall economy yeah, so you know, let's talk about that.

We we again, this is another topic we've talked about. You know week in week out, if you remember, we started with the slides talking about the v and the: u and the w and the l and all those things everything that's been talked about. You know - and it's you know it's such a short period of time relative to four or five months, but it feels like so long ago. You know that we have these conversations, so i want to go back and and remind you what we did talk about.

So if you, if you still have those slides or you go back and get them at keeping current matters, the the q2 forecast that was delivered, you know the what the economist said. The average was we're gon na see a dip of 30.8 percent in the second quarter. Now what came in was 32.9 they're, very, very close in their forecast of that and uh. You know so, if we're going to look at them and and believe them in that, we've got to look at those very same uh, analysts and forecasters for what are they saying here in the third quarter and beyond, and so we pulled the original five forecasters of What they're saying right now an additional four, so nine really projections around what's happening economically speaking, and you can see here, i believe you know five of the nine are saying we're going to see over 20 percent growth here in the third quarter, the other somewhere between 15 and 20 percent, so you know, while we saw massive massive decline in gdp in the second quarter, we're again going to see massive upswing in in the third quarter, and i think uh, morgan stanley articulates it best here and lisa.

Their chief investment officer says indeed the worst ever gdp reading could be followed by the best ever growth in the third quarter. So, as we see those things in the rearview mirror, let's acknowledge you know the the country literally shut down, and we saw that in the in the output and yet, economically speaking, we're you know on the rebound in growth. Now, i'm not suggesting we're back where we need to be or that there aren't questions to be answered. There are, but, economically speaking, we are recovering now uh.

Last two weeks before you show that next slide, i want to just acknowledge the oracle. I remember sitting with you and i on a show with steve harney. I want to say it was maybe the first or second week in april and he's you know, thomas listen to me. I want you to imagine grabbing a tennis ball and throwing it as hard as you can against the ground.

That is what the economy is going to look like in the in q2 slam that paul as hard as you can. He goes but when you slam that tennis ball, what do you think happens next and it's exactly what we're seeing right right now? Maybe the numbers aren't going to even out where we ultimately want to be, but we're seeing that massive spike down that massive spike up and lisa. You know chalet is saying it right here. The thing that we got to get everybody is you got to also go back and take those last three slides, show the all red and then tell the story.

The way david did look. This is what the smartest economist were saying. The world is falling apart, but this is what they're saying about the third quarter and you're already seeing it now, with all the publicly traded companies coming out with their numbers. If you're paying attention to everybody, everybody is seeing this big massive spike.

So we want to not make it better than it is not make it worse than it is just talk about what is right, so you can show them that next one, because i think this yeah really, i think, yeah this next one. You know we talked uh. Two weeks ago, just about the the dip in consumer spending and then the the trend back up upwards - and i brought this map in here - that our team developed relative to a study uh that shows consumer spending by state in in how far down it is right. Now, as compared to january 1st, so you know the overwhelming majority is this kind of darker? I don't know orange brownish tint, which is between zero and ten percent.

You know if i look at the middle of the country in texas down seven point. Four percent off of january now, if you remember, we looked at this back in april or back in the slide, we used two weeks ago, significant dip in consumer spending as people. I i like to think about that put their hands in their pockets, that you know we all went into our homes and said: hey we're gon na we're gon na wait this thing out for just a little while, but but starting to get back to a consumer Spending pattern that is very much like uh how we started the year and so i think we're gon na you know we want to continue to watch consumers. We want to watch that map and i would say you know if you go back to the quote: if you guys remember, we talked about it.

The strength of recovery will be determined by containment of the virus, and i think that going forward will be the story. Regionally, meaning by state, you know: how is your state being affected? What makes up your state's economy that's going to affect recovery, you know what's what's going on with the virus, how are things happening, but it is really encouraging to see across the country to be within 10 points of where we were in january, based on what we've Just been through in this, you know this economic storm across the country. I agree. I i really love this and, and you know david, i'm going to say if, if people are really paying attention, it's not like the economy in january and february was steamrolling and growing.

Like crazy right, we were actually a little timid in that first, two months of the year right. So then you put everything that happened on top of this right. I just can't help but feel maybe just i'm going to say bullish, not on every state in the union, but overall, very bullish, because you look at again all those people coming back that are in restaurants in hotels. I was at dinner the last two nights.

I went out to dinner for the first time in a long time, the last two nights and yes, i was sitting in a parking lot in an open air setting in one and i was sitting an alley in the other. But you know what that tells me. Restaurant owners, hotel people, the service industry, are becoming very resourceful right. That's what right! That's what we're asking of all of you! So just just my two cents on that.

Let's, i think it's a great point: let's, let's keep it going quickly and talk about housing recovery, because everybody's going to want to see this - and this is where get ready to start thinking, how you're going to take this information and be the educator yeah. So so i had some fun with this visual i'll show it to you guys, because it's it's very interesting. What economists are saying about the housing market right now, and you know i feel like it's like a movie review in some respects and and here's the reason i put this together. Economists, don't normally speak like this.

They they talk very matter of fact very much in the data very much what's going on and we're hearing things like an astonishing rebound shockingly strong. You know, adam data solution, says pull something of a of a high wire act in the second quarter. Zillow came in with stared the pandemic right in the eye and hasn't blinked there's been nothing short of remarkable. You know so you know when i look at this, we could not have asked for for for, for more and and for better responses to what's happening right now in the housing market, and you know if i were to to kind of kind of look at this And say you know not only economically speaking, but in the housing market, i think it's safe to say, um.

We we are far beyond where uh, where most people had said. You know this is where we would be at this time. I mean tom, you talked about it, you know the surge in demand and we've talked about pinup demand and we'll talk about that some more today, but but i think we're seeing that the fruit of that in what you know what experts are saying about: the housing Market right now, hey jason, i i can't help but think i want your opinion on this. David said something earlier headlines are designed to terrify, not clarify, and i think i saw you write that one down too, because i know i did i i can't help but think if an agent just comes out and and publishes this, it's probably going to feel pretty Self-Serving right, i think instead they should go back into the financial archives of april may and june when wells, fargo and nar and everybody was saying doom and gloom.

And then you know i'd i'd lead with the doom and gloom. And then this one and say you know something about housing dave. You know jason thoughts. I know i don't want just this yeah.

No, my initial thought is, i would use my instagram stories or a gallery post where i could go screenshot or screen grab. The initial thing circle it on a story and say tap to the next to see what happened uh and they go to the next. And then i see the quote and maybe there's a little video because, like you, can actually overlay your own face talking on a story. So you have like that little poof cloud in the sky person talking kind of saying, here's what they said and then do another one have fun with it.

Yeah, depending upon your personality, you may just kind of have fun right right for the fact again, i'm going to go back to what i said there. Normally, economists don't speak this way right and that's just a you know a byproduct of how enthusiastic they are uh housing, 100. So you're about to show a quote from one of my favorites good old, ivy, zellman, absolutely yeah, so ivy came out in in their broker survey and said whether in terms of pending contract activity or our proprietary buyer demand ratings. The various measures of demand captured in those this month's survey can only be described as shockingly strong.

We use that before, in spite of the resurgence of 19 cases, and it - and i think the this is you really made true by what quicken loans said here. The pandemic has not stopped the consistent home price growth we've witnessed in recent years. So can i home prices are growing, but go ahead. This only supports what you were saying earlier, which is never has home been more important than it is right now to folks all my friends out.

There know hey the the line. Are you living in your dream home now? Are you living in your dream home now right and if not, what are your plans? I mean the reality is none of us know when this is going to end, but we're all seeing this massive flight to people that want a backyard more space, a second office, a home office, a little more land. They want a little more peace, we're i'm talking to people that are running publicly traded companies that are saying we're, probably not going to have our workforce, come back until mid to late 2021. So, if we're going to stay in a work from home environment where you live, matters matters right and i would go back to in the last segment where we talked about like the restaurants you went to, for example, tom.

Yes, i think this is actually an opportunity. Now, potentially, for agents to get back to interviewing restaurant owners talking about what they're doing putting it in their email, newsletters, hey, here's! How so-and-so is doing this this, and this and really just kind of spreading the word of people's resourcefulness right in a very indirect way, but showing it? How it's being done? Because i think that inspires people to think you know what life life is going on. Every second of every day, how am i going to be doing this? How am i living what choices? Am i making today right? Just a thought, i think that's so important. You know this this economic downturn and what we're seeing just economically speaking, even back to the restaurant example, is being defined by innovation, whether it's in our business, it's in another business and think about too think about how much we can help a restaurant to say: hey.

We are out there. We are doing this, here's how we're doing it safely, because we know they've been hit hard, but i love that idea yeah. So, let's uh, let's show them that next slide, because this next slide is very powerful yeah. So i go back to this.

You know tom. This is the the large range of projections on future home prices. The one thing missing here. If you remember last time we talked about this corelogic had projected uh 6.6 depreciation.

If you remember that red bar that was hanging down to the right they've come back and massively revised that to say we think it's, you know it's one percent um fannie mae. If you remember tom, when we first started talking about this said 0.4 yeah they've come back and said point four, so i think you know across the board what we've seen is: we've seen more uh. You know forecasters upgrade their projections going into into the next year. That is the story right here.

We still have a couple. You know, uh, seven out of the the nine here are saying we're going to see positive appreciation. We have corelogic canals and, and truthfully um respect those organizations, but don't agree with that, based on the supply and demand situation, we've talked extensively about, but but i do find it interesting that across the board, they've been revised up over the last several weeks. Again.

My friends that are watching you know mykcm.com forward slash tom ferry, go back into the archives of may and june. I mean, i think, even the beginning of july david, when they were still saying it's going to go at point four and now right 4.4. Now again that side-by-side comparison, i would still say this is what they said. This is what they're saying now, but does that really matter we're talking about your home right, we're talking about right and i would go back to the you know.

Home ownership today means more than it's ever meant so more that emotional side, but let's, let's keep going because this the next couple slides really tells the story from a data standpoint as well: yeah yeah yeah, so i bring this in. We've talked about it purchase applications. The leading indicator of you know, folks that have seen a home and now going out and applying for the financing of it. We've seen 12 straight weeks of year of year, increases in the number of people applying for mortgages, certainly a healthy indicator in the market relative to activity and what people are doing now tom you, you talked about this and i want to bring it up, um in Showing time here - and maybe we can - we can talk about this for a minute um.

If you remember this, we've started this. It used to be a line graph. We converted our team converted it to a bar graph and it shows showings, relatively uh relative to january and how we started out the year. We started out the year extremely strong.

We know we took this dip down in uh in march and april and the beginning of may and then we've been uh. We've we've been, you know, climbing since then, meaning you know we're above where we should be in showings across the country. Now interesting trend uh for the last four weeks, we've started to see a decline in that trend of the number of people going out and scheduling a showing, as measured by showing time now a couple things that that i would position there. No doubt we're coming out of a summer where, where we've seen massive activity we started talking early about you know summer is the spring market this year and a lot of that activity got displaced into the summer.

The questions that start to form, in my mind, is are have we gone through, maybe some of the pinup demand that was in the market relative to the people that got displaced in the spring, but but but the best analogy i could give on this right now Is if you're flying down the road in a sports car doing 90 miles an hour? And you see a you know, an officer up around the corner or somebody warned you and you slow down to 60. You feel like you're, going a lot slower, but you're actually going the speed. You need to be going. Let's position this and let's remember that if we do feel any of that in the coming weeks, we're still up uh relative to the number of showings.

But we've come out of a time where we've been massively up uh in in showings across this country yeah and the key. My friends remember we're looking at you know, um, i think it's three or four provinces in canada, yeah and just about every state in the us. So those are you it's very important. I think for everybody out there, especially those of you with you, know, you're, taking lots of listings to constantly looking at the national data and then your local data, through your mls, with showingtime.com, always making that connection between the two.

The other interesting thing - jason, i'm sure you caught this too. I keep looking at this. The massive spike here in purchase applications and the drop in the drop in showings, but i coached 17 of the biggest ceos in the you know in real estate and they all said july was the biggest recorded sales month in the history of their company and we're Talking about some businesses that have been around for 80, 90, 20 140 years, so i think everybody out there knows july was a bananas month. It was i was.

I was looking at showing times data and they keep that graph online. Their coven 19 year-over-year analysis yep, and we are according to that. It's still up year-over-year showing activity and it's following a similar decline year over year. So last year it felt almost the same.

I mean i'm not the expert, that's not my wheel, i'm here for marketing, but just an observation uh. When i look at that yep nonetheless, do you think this is the question for you guys? I suppose do you think i mean we have limited inventory. Buyers are certainly competing. I i think a lot of families are trying to figure out school right now.

I think that's sort of become a different interest - that's maybe not distracted, but it's become the more focal point for a lot of families to figure out right. I think that contributes as well. No doubt i i think the story there jason and let me just take my own family as an example. There are a lot of situations right now where people go, i just don't know.

I don't know if, if i'm uncertain, that can that can paralyze me in the decision-making process right, i don't know if my kids are going back to school. I don't know what the plan is. I may need, but but let's, let's also put that into perspective. There are, there are significantly more needs in a home today, given school, you know we, we looked at a survey yesterday that 12 of the 15 largest school districts in this country are starting virtually and that's indicative.

I believe, of what the country is doing largely starting. Virtually and that story will play out this year into what that means. You know month over month, but i think i think you're right there jason. I think the important thing we have to keep in mind here is: we may feel a little bit of that.

But let's keep it in perspective that we're up still up. Yes, yeah still up there, a lot of people in the comments, guys that are saying you know. Yes, i'm looking hey. I don't feel that in seattle at all yeah you know, like you know, we're so busy.

We don't know what to do with ourselves, and you know, i think laura also said and oh you know, we don't get the mls uh showing time data, but but she knows the velocity of the marketplace, which you know i'm talking to my clients up in the Pacific northwest they're feeling the same um, so i know we only have one or two more slides david, but let's, let's, let's bring it home with some some good news for them, especially around the mortgage side and by the way everyone out there. If you haven't refinanced your house, please refinance it david, correct me. If i'm wrong, we just hit the eighth time this year, a record low for interest rates, correct right, so in one year we're only in august right right, you know, i think the um and that you know we follow the freddie mac uh uh survey there you Can see it up here on your screen 2.88, which was published on thursday uh record low for the eighth time this year, uh the quote here: the resilience of the housing market continues, as mortgage rates hit another all-time low, giving potential buyers more purchasing power and strengthening Demand we expect rates to stay low and continue to propel the purchase market forward. However, the main barrier to rising demand remains the lack of inventory, especially for entry-level homes.

You know this this right here. No doubt you know tom, we could talk forever on it. We we talked so you know many weeks about the impact we have in our business on the economy. The average impact of a home sale we're seeing that dramatically, driven by the lowest cost of borrowing money we've seen in in, i think, forever, almost and uh.

You know i saw a study yesterday. The average home buyer in this country right now has 32 000 in additional purchasing power due to the rate environment. Today, that's huge. We need to be talking about that um and getting that out.

There say that again, please, the average home buyer today has 32 thousand dollars in additional purchasing power due to the rate environment 32, 000 in additional buying power like that, is a video in and of itself. My friends just to go back and look at some of the slides we've done where we've said: hey interest rates here equals this interest rates here equal this interest here, 32 000 in additional buying power. That's just a powerful statement to be made, i mean jason. I know you're seeing it with your clients, i'm saying with my clients, i'm saying with friends that i know that are buying houses right now, they're saying wait a minute.

Instead of buying that 800 000 house i can now buy, you know an 850 000 house and have the same payment, i mean it's, it is remarkable, what's happening, but let's land it with this. The challenge, my friends, is, we need more listings. So i'm looking you directly into your eyes right now. What are you going to do in your local marketplace to solve that at the summit this year, we're going to go through seven different listing attraction campaigns and not the traditional ones, you're thinking about not just working with your past clients and sphere or your geographic farm Or trying to convert the online lead but tapping into what i'm referring to is the non-market, the non-market right, the ones that no one else is thinking about, but i believe there's about, dare i say three million listings to be had by the savviest of people just Like you, so what are you going to do differently right? More, the same is only going to get you more of the same right.

You've got to add new sources, a different approach, change your tone, change your message, be more of the educator and be willing to go on way. More research phase seller meetings way more of those people that are thinking about it and jason, i'm just giving him a little rant here and without a shadow of a doubt. If you have not figured out how you're going to help your seller and market this process hey, what we need to do is refi pull some money out, do a helog, so you got a hundred thousand dollars, so you can go and buy the next home and Qualify and then sell it and pay it off and do all that stuff so you're, not writing these contingent offers that are stopping so many of you, we've got to think through the solutions and, dare i say, slow down with sellers slow down, get out of the Quick put it in the mls, oh my god, instant, sale and then go into the the mayhem of oh god, prelim title report, and this and oh, my god, is it going to work. Praise do all of that in advance.

Start marketing yourself as the only agent who can guarantee helping their clients only move once and i think that's going to sell you for the highest price and you're only going to move. Once with my system jason, i was going to say like that's the line right there, you just used it only move once, but i actually think that idea of slow down is a good language pattern, because i would, i would bet that this hidden non-market, that you Refer to that, a lot of that angst is pretty much like man. It's going to sell so fast. I don't know we're going to buy we're going to be in a more competitive space.

I don't want to end up in a rental if i can even find a rental and then what? If? What? If i can't find a house - or i want to build or whatever slow down like, if you can put that hand on the shoulder, figuratively speaking and just say, let's slow down here's the process that we're going to walk you through that's a powerful language pattern, and I was thinking about it from a marketing standpoint. I mean really. Is it an email? Is it a post on social? Is it a video? Is it a postcard there's only so many marketing channels that it's going to be, but it's everything we're talking about here and i think, if you're going to get savvy and look for those hidden listings, you got to understand. What's stopping sellers tom, if i could share the thing you and i were talking about this morning - um a bunch of my clients.

We don't we're just we're hustling right now, we're asking the question right now. What are we gon na do to find those like tom said? Maybe three million listings out there that could be hidden, they're sort of in a static frozen, don't know where to go mode. One thing we're doing is we're actually sending out like mailers and communications to our geographic farms. Basically saying hey, would you be a seller? If you could find that perfect home just asking the question and we're basically saying, would you fill out a form? What are you looking for? What do you have that you'd want to sell just so we can get a sense of where people are at and you're basically becoming an off-market matchmaker, because i think that's what it takes right now.

I agree again. You have to think differently, another just listed and just sold card. My friends is not going to get it done. You're getting lost in the sea of sameness, you've got to penetrate into their hearts and minds what their concerns are, what their issues are.

Do you have the right home for homeschooling think about that as a headline, and i think a headline is sell and only move once yep. That's a big old campaign. I'd have that on google display network email, social sell and only move once figure it out. How are you going to support that? What are your solutions to it and look? There's there's you know whether they take money out of their house to do it.

You go to a company like easy knock. I think home light is now doing this. There's a lot of companies that are paying attention to this sort of bridge loan strategy to help position those buyers right. Some of them will even buy the house, give them the cash and let them go out and buy their next home.

And i know you have a client who's actually doing that as well. That's not really scalable, but you know i'm proud a friend right, yeah, all right. So as we as we wrap up um gentlemen, i want to say thank you always david. The work that you guys do at kcm is so important, and you know whether it's 14 15 weeks, the the years that i have supported you guys and appreciated you guys and asked you to please come on my shows and and share.

I just want you to know from myself and everybody at ferry, international and our entire ecosystem of coaches and clients and friends live on facebook. We are very grateful for the work that you you and the team do so i just want to say thank you. Thank you, yeah on behalf of the entire it's 26 people, not just me. You know that that do this research that consistently look at what do we need to be saying right now and you know uh tom.

I will pass that along and know that, on our behalf that you know all of this information doesn't make an impact until great people, great agents across the country go out there and get the word out, and you know that uh i'm going to make the case You know we're a month out almost, i think, from from the summit of we still have things going on this year, significant things that we want to talk about relative the election and why people are moving and data to support. What's going on, and so our goal is to be that resource and and be that element that you can go out there confidently and have those conversations and and david the promise is at the summit day two, you got a 30 minute session where you're going to Talk about the most important messaging and data points around the election and then what to do after the election to make sure you're positioning your clients to win. So you know that's a that's a whole 30 minutes in buried in the data there and i'll just kind of tease this out that the key to winning in 2021 will be how well we finish this year and what we do in the fourth quarter. No doubt no doubt yeah 100, so jason.

I know you got coaching sessions uh. I thank you always my friend for uh for joining us and offering your marketing insight and prowess um. Let's wrap it up. My friends, hey it's friday.

Do me a favor and text. 10 people, you know and ask them, are they living in their dream home now and with everything happening in the world? Have they had any thoughts of selling, keep unlocking the frozen market, keep finding the listings and slow down and help them make this process easier and better for them and for the buyer, that's going to buy the property, that's the whole game in 2020 and beyond my Friends, so we'll see you guys in a couple weeks and then we'll see you in three weeks at the summit until then remember your strategy matters, and now, more than ever your passion and execution. That's what rules see you soon? Everybody take care. You.