Hey this is tom nash and unfortunately, this horrible mistake is going to ruin a lot of retail investors portfolio this year. It's going to be quite painful, extremely violent and completely unnecessary, because it's easily avoidable as i'll show you in this video stay with me. This is important, so if you want to speculate on a chinese ipo, you've got my blessing to bet on deity. I would try to get as many shares as you can.

D-I-D-I. 2. 000 years later, i can't recommend buying stocks in a communist regime. I think that the pres president xi does not like capitalism.

What is this horrible mistake that actually ruins a lot of people's lives and financials? Well, unfortunately, it is quite real and not really academic and i've seen it happen again and again. I guess the best story would be to show you how this plays out in real life. Now, in 2017 i was working for a company and i was in the kitchenette area making some coffee. Now, this really lovely lady who was the administrative assistant walks in and we started chatting.

She was in her mid 60s super nice. I absolutely loved her and she tells me she just bought her first bitcoin, in fact her first investment ever in her life, and once i heard that i realized i'm living through a real life situation of the shoe shiner example how your shoe shiner starts talking to You about his portfolio and which stocks he's excited about that's the time when the stock market is about to erupt and not in a good way. Now i realized back then that bitcoin is about to take a massive hit. Just of this little conversation now i had no bitcoin at that point in my portfolio, so i didn't have to sell, but i knew to stay away from it and of course, bitcoin collapsed.

All the way from eighteen thousand dollars, which is what she paid all the way down to three thousand dollars now, of course, she panicked because she thought that bitcoin is a scam. She didn't understand what she invested in and sold. While that happened, my friend justin, oh, who i'm doing the show money talks with he actually had this similar situation. He held bitcoin when it was 18 000.

Of course he bought it way back when and when he dropped to 3 000. He stayed in because he understood the underlying fundamentals of bitcoin and he basically understood that. Even though this might take a few months, a few years, bitcoin will recover and there's no sense in selling it for three thousand dollars and he stayed in and wrote that all the way to forty fifty sixty thousand dollars and now it's back to the thirties and The same story keeps happening: people who bought it in the sixties are selling in the thirties, because they're panicking, my friend justin, is staying in because he understands the underlying fundamentals and speaking of long-term conviction and dollar cost averaging into bitcoin. It's a good chance to mention our sponsor ftx us now.

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Do it right now and of course, a huge thank you for ftx us for sponsoring this video. Thank you so much and now, let's move on to the rest of the video now look chasing. The next big wave is really hard, for example, right now it's not bitcoin right now. Everybody's talking about oil and energy, crude oil is currently at 110 a barrel right over the past six months, the price of crude went up by 45 and for the past year, it's up 80.

So it's a good time to invest in oil right. Here's the thing i don't know: in september 2008, the price of crude was 140. Just 90 days later the price dropped to 37.5 a barrel. On january 2020, the price was 60 a barrel.

Three months later it went to 17 a barrel. That is exactly the thing with oil commodities and even stocks, and even crypto or bitcoin. Nobody knows where the market is heading trying to time. The market is pretty much trying to guess where a drunken person wobbling down the street is gon na place his foot.

Next, it's such a random act just goes to show you how random the markets can be at least sheer term now, whether it's energy commodities growth or value stocks or chasing the next big spike in the market. I mean it's pretty much like trying to punch the guy in the mirror. It's not very effective and you're gon na get up, you know all caught up, and i mean you can chase oil prices or commodities or bitcoin or any sorts of these new hypey things and you might hit a few home runs here and there. But you can't do this as a consistent strategy.

Most of the time you as a retail investor, are jumping in on the trend. Late, that's the god's, honest truth and the pros they're, the ones already moving on to the next big thing, while you're stuck holding the bag for the previous thing, and that is exactly the problem which long-term investing solves now. For example, i invest in growth like palantir, for example, since i know that, despite bad performance of a stock in the next few months or even few years, it will be at the top of the game down the road by 2025, 2027. 2028.

Whenever that happens now consider this over the past five years, the s p 500 did 63 percent. Over the past 10 years it did 200, which is anywhere from 12 and a half percent to 20 per year. Now, over the past year, the s p 500 dropped. Six percent, which happens - i mean it happens quite often.

However, i know for a fact that in the next 10 years, the s p 500 is likely to give me 8 per year, even if we go through a recession. This is exactly why i invest 40 of my money in the s p, 500, because simply i'm not going to bet against the u.s economy, because at the end of the day, if you are buying quality businesses and holding them long term, you will be fine simple. However, unfortunately, most retail investors are going to do this mistake not having enough money in the index funds and jumping around trying to catch the next big win. The next big home run missing the point that you're trying to get eight to ten percent a year and that's your strategy and in the process you might hit a few home runs.

But if you stay consistent and you stay, conservative you're gon na be fine. However, i can guarantee you one thing: if all you do is chasing the next big home run and just swing for the fences for every single ball, you're gon na get struck out. It's exactly the same thing, i'm sorry to bring you this horrible truth, but most people won't tell you that, because they want you keeping pumping money into individual stocks into trading high frequency trading, for the fees and all that stuff. Don't do it stay in index funds.

Stay in long-term investments that you believe in as far as the next five years, there's no need to jump like a headless chicken from thing to thing, trying to catch the next big wave. It's going to ruin you financially now, as always huge shout out for channel members, the patrons the list of the newest members and patrons will be on the screen in just a second. Thank you. So much see you tomorrow, 30 hertz straight up.