Greetings: everyone welcome back to another closing, live stream well well, well, folks. The big question now is: when is the pain going to end and uh? My expectations, for when this pain is going to end, have shifted uh substantially? I think we are probably going to experience this continued pain and i'll make a more detailed video. Probably later today it's going to take a while to put it together but uh. I think we're probably going to see continued pain uh until we get through specific catalyst points such as fed meeting jan 25 and specifically cpi march 10 and the fed meeting march 15 to 16.

uh. That means that, ironically, i think that or earnings, whether they're, good or bad, are gon na be bad, and i'm just giving you like a quick little preview bottom line here. I'll make a more detailed explanation on all of this later, but see. Look at netflix if netflix reports insane growth and the ability to raise prices on their customers without expectations of declines.

That would be good news for netflix, but guess what it would signal to the federal reserve uh. Oh, we should tighten more because things are overheating, so good news, bad for companies and bad for the market during earnings season. Good news gets punished bad news. Well, you saw what happened when netflix released bad news.

Yesterday, bad news also gets punished, so i think earning season is good. News is bad. Bad news is bad. I think january 25th jay pal's not going to be super bearish, so i think we could get a small rally out of jan 25, but most people are going to be worried about march 15 to 16 because they remember 2018.

They remember what happened when the fed turned bearish and y'all should really watch my video. Oh thank you for the comment on the uh, the titanic, video uh. What i really recommend is the fed minutes. Uh fed minutes from december were terrible, uh uh yeah.

Here it is this uh and i actually live streamed. It wow. Okay, if you have not seen this video yet this is, must must watch okay uh. It is so so so important and i'm wearing the hat and the glasses and the thumbnail.

So it should be easy to find this right here must must must watch right here. The fed just crashed stocks. The worst report yet really really important. It's 54 minutes long.

I know it's long, but you will not be disappointed watching this. This is so so important because it shows you literally the most bearish fed that i've seen since 2008 and i studied 2008 a lot uh. You know i go back and read the minutes. I love them uh, you know they don't release all of uh all of the historical uh transcripts, though uh timely.

Sometimes i think the transcripts take like 12 years to come out which is kind of crazy, but i remember i haven't done this in a while, but a few years ago i was reading through the 2005 and 2006 transcripts and it was crazy to see just how Slow, the federal reserve was to react if you haven't watched my titanic video, yet about what's going on in the market. I i recommend you watch that because it just it adds a little humor and light to this market, but uh. Here's here's the reality: the market uh. Thank you on the uh, the titanic, video yeah um.

Look, i i hope the market just starts rallying. I really do hope that i want the market to just turn. Green again. I want to dye my hair green.

I want the market to rally uh, i i want everything to go back to normal, but i do think we're teetering between two fears of recession and i think that's creating so much fear and uncertainty and the only thing that is going to remove that fear and Uncertainty is j-pow, i hate to say it, but it's the cpi data and j-pal. That's what everything hinges on. Even though the bond market isn't pricing in more inflation. Those are what the fears are.

People go to the gas station. Oh, my gosh, five dollar gas in california. You know uh, and i do believe that institutions are going to come continue to to rip us off. I think the way institutions are ripping us off is we buy the dip and they sell it.

They trade us. They literally trade us they buy in early market dip, they sell by three hours into the market, and the market just turns down almost every single day. The market turns down towards the close it's because the institutions aren't buying right now. The people buying are the retail by the dippers and they're getting reamed.

We just had a very long conversation about strategies about this in the course member life. It was the hardest course member live stream. I've ever had to do, but i'm not the kind of person who's going to uh to just you know, go on vacation when times get tough. You know, that's that's the sign of a true little is somebody's.

Like you know what youtube ad revenue is down. Uh. You know stocks are down just i'm gon na go on a four week, vacation and just eff. It right like that would be a little baby.

I'm gon na stand up and uh and and go through strategies i'm and i'm preparing a larger video uh for for uh for the channel. This is a little bit of a preview of what some of my thoughts are uh. We talk a little bit more in a raw format in the course member live and we can kind of have a little bit of a dialogue. And then that helps me kind of put thoughts together for for uh larger videos later.

But it won't be before the markets closed because well, the market's gon na close in nine minutes uh, but anyway uh i'm not going anywhere. I am uh uh going to keep streaming and keep covering the madness of the market, and so with that said, let's get into the madness of the market. So uh we have the indices. Doing the following dow jones down 1.12 percent, the s p 500 down 1.72.

The nasdaq folks down 2.44, the russell 2000 down 1.29 percent crypto, we'll look at in a moment. I want to look at bonds quickly. Uh bond yields uh actually down on the day right down to 1.75. I think they were a little lower this morning, but uh this is.

This is a potential risk where we maybe get a flat yield curve. In fact, let me pull that up really quick on bloomberg. Uh. You could probably google this.

Actually, i think i wonder if cnbc has this 10 yield curve cnbc, if they have it it'll be faster 10-2 yield spread. They do have it yes, okay. This is the concern about actually yields going down. You know, usually we look at like the 10 year and it's like oh the, the 10 years up or whatever and uh, and then it actually goes down um or i'm sorry.

So the tenure goes down. We think, oh, maybe that's a sign that uh. What's it called uh hold on a second, let me fix this really quick, see news for today's. There we go okay, so uh, the expectation usually is.

Oh tech should do well when, when the yield, when 10 years go down right, but we're actually seeing a lot of pain in the nasdaq today, first of all i was looking. I was studying this a little bit, there's actually very little correlation between yields and the nasdaq. It's more of a a belief and a misconception than fact, and so it's no surprise that the nasdaq's down two percent or whatever and the ten years down like eight basis points uh. That's actually no surprise because there is no solid correlation between the two, but people believe that there is the bigger problem, though, is this fall here in uh in in right here in the yield curve in the 10-2 spread or the 210 spread whatever and the fall In this implies a flattening yield curve and the issue with that is when this inverts it could potentially spell recession uh.

This did invert uh over here in about the summer of 2019 and uh and we're kind of heading back to those levels, and so that is going to be a concern that potentially gets priced into the market last video was phenomenal. The titanic one. Thank you. I appreciate that uh, you know, honestly.

I was inspired to make that that clip with all the titles, because i watched the titanic yesterday and i couldn't help myself but make that analogy uh when it was happening like the printer running and all that it was. It was just i mean it. Just shows you how much i think about this market. It could be disease, i could be mentally broken.

I probably am but uh yeah, anywho, okay, so uh ethereum is below 27.30 bitcoin below uh, almost below 38 000. uh. The weekly chart here is not looking good uh, so cardano's actually doing the best, but still look at this solana. 119..

I mean this is half of all-time highs. We've seen 19 just in the day on luna here. This is it's just very ugly and very bad, and i hope i hope that it's the bottom bye. I i'm worried that it's more of a beginning than a bottom like i was watching that titanic and i was trying to.

I was trying to pretend like okay, where, where in the sinking of the titanic are we did we just get hit with the iceberg or was getting hit with the iceberg? The end of november remember when i shorted the market. Unfortunately, i closed that position. Early. Full transparency uh.

I wish i still held it. Oh well, woulda could shoulda right, but anyway i had. I had the right gut about shorting the market anyway uh. If it was that one, we hit the iceberg and if that's when we hit the iceberg, are we just now starting to load up the lifeboats or are we already at the bottom of the ocean? And personally, i could be very wrong about this, but i personally think we're loading up.

The lifeboats like the hedgies and institutions are the first class passengers getting on the lifeboats, and all of us are the third-rate citizens getting getting reamed uh. You know like, like they're still, who you remember titanic, where the scenes where they have the gates closed and they keep us in the dark like down below and they hide real information from us, because that's what the institutions do to screw. Retail right, like i feel, like the gates, are closed and we're behind we're like come on. This is ridiculous, and you know jack comes with the bench and they start ramming the gate to get out and kind of see the light.

Oh, no, all the lifeboats are gone. You know uh, who knows who knows? Maybe i should. I shouldn't, have watched the titanic yesterday and it's it's uh uh. I hope it's not making me emotional.

You never know, i don't know anything about the bnsf strike. I don't even know what bnsf is. I appreciate your twenty dollars. Oh it's a railway straight.

I have never in my career studied rail race. I literally don't even know where to start. I would rather just give you this straight up, but 17 000 union employees prepare for strike. My opinion of this is just just thinking about it.

If this means supply chains are going to get reamed bad bad 17, 000 workers, i mean how many workers does it. Take to operate a freaking train 17. 000. Is that, like the whole freaking country, like how many rail workers do we have how many rail workers in united states, like what percentage? Is this? Okay? 135? 000? Okay.

So what is that about? 15 percent? Thirteen. Twelve point: six percent: okay, all right all right: okay, that's not terrible! It's not good! Anyway. Let's look at the sticks here for a moment. Uh we've got one minute left to the close, as is freaking typical.

The market is selling off into the close uh. I want to warn this. I do think there is a high likelihood we are going to have a nice green day on monday, but i think it's going to be a head fake, leading into wednesday. I think the market's going to sell before wednesday, because i think people are going to freak the f out about j pal, a lot of people right now, with the exception of institutions.

I don't think actually realize that the j-pal meeting is at 11 30 uh. His press conference and his release is at 11 uh pacific time on wednesday. You know it's gon na be monday that people start talking about that anyway, qqq straight down on the day. Here s p 500 tesla.

I thought this morning was bad like this was bad. It got worse like everything everything got worse. Well, let's get the bell and we'll come back to this ah wrong, one about almost nine percent off its record intraday high it's about 7.7 down for the year and for the week it's lost about 5.7, really a tough week for stocks overall, the nasdaq in particular. It's closing down another two and three-quarters percent.

That means for the week it's down more than seven and a half percent wilfred yeah. We tried to bounce there all right holy smokes. Folks, um look! I i don't want to be mr fear, but we haven't even seen circuit breakers. Yet i do not want to.

I really don't want to uh dow jones down 1.3 s. P. 500 down 1.9 nasdaq, almost down 3 on a day, russell down. 1.79.

Look. I would expect a green monday when you have this much of a red day. Uh we're probably gon na, have a red monday. I'm sorry we're probably gon na have a bounce monday, but how many times have we talked about convictionless rallies in this market? Every freaking rally since december has been convictionless and honestly, if you're heavy on tech, it's felt convictionless since february of last year, when the bloomberg terminal, two-factor identification code, told me pray, and yesterday i get like it literally says sh9t.

Many of you already know this because you watched yesterday's live stream or this morning's live stream. In case you don't already know, this sh9t is like censored right, but if you count out the ninth letter in the alphabet, it shows you what to fill in which the fact that it said that is just a bad omen. That's all it is, i'm not a very superstitious person, but definitely got me thinking about our catalysts and time frames. So anyway, i'm exhausted.

That's all i can say like you know what we need. We need joint shots and tequila. That's it hold on we're doing it. Please stand clear of the closing doors um we're gon na we're gon na hit the sticks here in just a second hey.

Would you mind bringing me a cup and tequila? Please thank you right. Okay, so netflix actually didn't end up getting uh. Yes, that's uh, lauren uh netflix did end up getting a it actually kind of closed the way it opened, which is kind of surprising uh roblox. Just straight down here i mean roblox from 74 to 68.90.

Hey, you want to say, hi come in here. Everybody wants to see you yes, hello. When are you going to post on your channel? Again, i don't know say something else. Good luck! Everybody! Good luck! All right! Thank you! Ah, all right, uh yeah! I got ta order.

Some uh hard sell, sir um. What do they call topo chico's? I didn't know that i'll have to ask lauren to do that anyway. Uh jeez man. This is this, is just it's a cluster f and - and i really hate to see it.

Yes, i will make a. I will right now. You know what i'm gon na do this for everybody: okay for everyone uh, i i don't care if you're a course, member or not. This is for everybody.

Okay under the meet kevin general section, i am going and i'll be in there after this live stream therapy. Uh, i'm gon na say: uh meet kevin group therapy. We are creating that channel in the public section of discord, so you all can go in there and if you want to join this discord, just go to met kevin.com chat, it's totally free you're not going to get access to all the the private channels or whatever Uh, but that's okay, just go over here meet kevin group therapy and it's totally free. You join that it is uh metcalvin.com chat again.

Metkevin.Com chat, group therapy. Okay, now uh, i'm gon na pour this tequila and we're gon na look at the sticks so see we're already we're already seeing a lot more green in the after hours. I expect that i totally totally totally expect a green bounce on monday might be a good time. To short, i got ta make sure this is a double shot.

Oh, it's almost out. That's that's a double right. I mean that looks like actually a nice thick double you don't do singles you get a better deal. Getting doubles actually the best way.

Folks, okay, look if you are by the dipper or you want to save money in this market. What you need to do before you go out if you drink, if you don't drink, then this doesn't apply to you right uh. What you do is you uh put coffee cups and tequila in your trunk or like uh, your frunk, or something like that and you're gon na be somewhere where you're gon na be sober, uh, don't drink and drive right uh, but, like you, go to a restaurant Or something rather than paying twenty dollars for a double tequila at yard house, you just bring your double tequila in your starbucks cup. There you go anyway, uh okay.

So what do we got all right? Netflix down 21 carvana got absolutely reamed. 14. That's insane! Uh! 14! From 154 to 135, i mean valuation compression is coming. Trade desk got re.

Why, like, like honestly, why uh 12 on trade desk? Why it's? Because the institutions are selling everything blah that was oh dang anyway, again i'll, be in that discord chat after this live stream. If you want to join the therapy, discord chat, go to metkevin.com, chat and i'll. Even you know i'll be here soon. Exclamation mark, okay, uh.

Sorry, let's focus on the sticks here, arrival folks, a rival. Actually it's a good company. I don't love the micro factories because i think they're going to miss out on scale but 13 freaking percent come on man uh. The trade desk sell-off is insane a back toll.

Look at this d-wack. I mean no surprise that d-wax down nine percent uh look at. Oh, my gosh shift technologies is under two dollars holy crap. I thought i was a paper hander when i sold it at like 650..

Okay, holy crap under two dollars, roblox is, is basically going back to ipo prices. Kathy wood has loaded the boat with this folks. Look at the lines look at the lines, the lines the oh, my gosh. Oh we used to trade in this channel.

We literally just ran right back into the channel um nancy pelosi's husband bought a 100 call option. You know that guy is getting screwed right now. Um, oh man, uh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, um a firm. What the hell 57 amazing company, amazing partnerships in the frugal decade.

People are going to need this borrowing, reamed reamed, absolutely reamed david says. I can't believe you listened to my request. Of course, i always want to listen to uh. I want to listen to the community.

How much uh do you think the tensions between russia and ukraine matter? Five percent? Five percent? That's it um! Let's keep going yes! You're hilarious in this group therapy chat. Sorry i'll be there soon right now we're doing video therapy wait. I just need to have the shot uh a time for 1 pm shots come on. Mikey.

Have you poured yours? Let's go mikey tell me, you poured yours, tell me, you poured yours and we'll do it with you. We'll do it live uh poured poured with two o's all right. Let's go all right, whoever whoever had their time here we go all right. Tequila! I get that.

I get the jose cuervo, okay, i it's, i actually like it and it's cheap best case scenario, all right, folks, a plus and cheers uh. I can't think of other ones salute all right cheers that was a big load, but that's okay. I can handle them whoo. That was a full one, all right so uh.

By the way, my chaser was coffee, which is absolutely disgusting, like i kind of feel like vomiting right now, but instead i'm just gon na have another sip, but don't sue me bro coffee, that is disgusting, so bad, oh, so uh pinterest decides to fall under 30 Dollars folks, look at the lines on pinterest. These got absolutely obliterated. This is why there is a limit to technical analysis right, but the the thing about technical analysis is when you break, you know it's bad. When you break the lines, you know it's bad, and so it's like a little early uh early warning shot.

But look at this over here we're we. We just broke 30 uh 34. yeah. Let's not talk about pinterest all right, no, not fair, we're moving on! Oh god, you know what, instead of talking about pinterest at 29, how about we just talk about lemonade at 29.

Look at that one folks, reamed, absolutely reamed! I remember feeling special buying lemonade at ipo at 55. I bought options on lemonade over here in the dirt. Uh i made tendees on those options over here, like i had a great relationship with lemonade. I did paper hand all my lemonade at like 65, though there's like 65 over here kind of glad.

I did because it had another 50 ahead of it is what it is. It is what it is and look i think, long term. The market's not going to sell down forever pain does not last forever pain, is a short-term phenomenon. Pain stops when you're, dead or bankrupt.

I mean sorry pain stops soon, like usually it doesn't last more than than a few months um, but anyway talk about matterport, oh yeah, you could 3d scan your losses into the metaverse. Somebody posted this in the therapy chat. You know, i don't think posting this in the therapy chat is the intention of the therapy chat? Oh god? Oh my gosh. Oh look at matterport today, folks, it bounced off ten dollars.

Oh oh, oh it's! This is worse than a rug, pull yeah this. This is what i feel like. That's a good one. Oh this, the therapy chat is, is apparently therapy memes that are bankrupt.

What's the difference cry now or later shouldn't it mint an nft with your portfolio lost porn, so i can make something back. Oh, oh, look at the channel somebody wrote uh drew on bitcoin. I want to look at my btc. Let me see how it's performed.

Let's go over here or my my charts rather holy. What look at it bounce off my support line? I you can't make this stuff up. You can go through my live streams. You know, i don't manipulate these lines holy crap.

It is literally perfect. Remember for a while i've been saying like i don't have any support lines here. I don't know if that's good or bad, it literally bounced off 37.6. Actually, my line's at is pretty close to that where's, my line.

Oh, it looks like it went a little bit beyond my line. My line is at 37.6. Oh no! No! That's what it! Oh! My gosh, that's what it bounced off look at my line hold on. Let me hide myself for a second look at this light is insane look at that 37 592 is where my line was the damn thing bounced off 37 618 and people dare to say in the comments.

If you draw enough lines, you'll hit them wrong. Ta works. Okay, especially on things that are highly traded, the link for the group therapy is metkevin.com chat. Group therapy, hc bedkevin.com chat, that's insane, and i have not even i have not pulled that up today.

That's why i reacted like that because i'm like holy crap, sometimes i feel like people won't, don't just don't believe me. But again, if you go through the livestream history, you know i don't move them. I don't move the lines. I draw the lines and then i leave them and if they don't become valid anymore they're still there, you know, because we either broke through or bounced off, uh and and if they don't become valid.

I wan na know that they became invalid right. That's extremely important, but that is freaking insane. Okay, i'm gon na stop about that now. I guess this would be the opportune moment to say get yourself a double shot at tequila and join the courses link down below, where i teach you the style of ta that i use because that's nuts hey, you know you may as well take a tax write-off.

I mean like it'll, help soften some of the blow of the market. Jeez man look everybody's suffering, okay, except the institutions that are shorting those scumbags anyway, uh. Sorry, where were we uh? Oh uh pounds here holy crap man? Oh, look. We channeled for a while here on palantir, and i mean this like.

I don't have lines anymore for pound here, it's so low. I do not have lines anymore. We literally bobbed off of the my 1790 line, which was like the scaffold what the hell, oh god, dude, what the hell square another seven percent like how damn cheap is this company gon na get? You know like look at it. We had our.

We had our little little channel over here. It's not the best. You can see the lines sometimes aren't perfect and that's okay, because they give us a good average of the channel, but they definitely show us a problem. When this is happening, i mean it is continued.

All-Time new lows: okay, i drew a line on hood for giggles. I have not looked at hood today. I hate to say it: i've not looked at hood, we're gon na look at hood right now: okay, okay, i drew this line on robin hood for complete giggles, because all i did was draw the top to zero and i hate to say it, but it's kind Of been following it, it went to 1277 today. What's that zero quest wants everyone to stop spamming.

Zero quest is right. Please please, don't post your meme more than once. Otherwise, i'm going to start banning max 3. If you do it again, i'm i'ma personally ban! You live, although that might motivate you to do it more, please just don't anyway.

Oh my god, all right, they're crashing the market on purpose. Um, probably i look. Listen, i hate to say it folks, but thanks max retail, uh retail is getting reamed by institutions. I don't know who bob kendall is.

I don't know if i care about bob right now. I hate to say it anyway. Retail is getting reamed by institutions, that's literally because we keep buying the dip and we are falling into their freaking fracking trap. These bastards aren't going to buy until the fed makes up their goddamn mind on february on march 15th, or is it 16 god? Damn it funcy meetings 16th come on kevin, get it right.

The institutions are not going to stop reaming us and taking money out of our pockets, in my opinion, until february 16th we're going to keep getting reamed by these bastards and in fairness it makes sense why? If you are a hedge fund or institution, are you going to buy the dip before march 16th when we could? Potentially, i don't believe it'll happen, get a double uh, a a double rate hike and look statistically the slowing, slow down the chat? That's actually not a bad idea i'll do that i'll turn on slow mode. So that way, it's just a little bit more sane because i'm going to come into the the therapy chat soon after this live stream, which, again, if you want to join the therapy chat, all you have to do is go to medkevin.com chat because you don't have To pay anything it's free for all y'all, i love it all. I will slow the chat i'll put it on one minute. There we go.

But again, why listen look i i really. I really want you to do this. Okay, i want you to put yourself in the shoes of a hedge fund manager, okay, so picture this close your eyes close your eyes. Do it do it close your eyes? Okay, you right now have 100 million dollars of other people's money and, if you f up, they will leave your fund and you will make no money.

Okay, you got that picture in your head right, you're picturing, a hundred million dollars in your td ameritrade account and you will not make any money this year and you will go bankrupt if you these people gosh. I shouldn't say that on livestream, anyway. Okay, all right now now ask yourself this: ask yourself this: okay, are you buying the dip before march 16th, when jerome powell could potentially hike rates twice, even though we expect inflation to eventually go down in the future and rate hikes to not actually have that? Much of an impact on the market will you actually buy the dip before that and then face your investors and tell them why you bought the dip before march 16th. Just ask yourself that, okay, now that you've pictured yourself as an institution.

Look at the stock market. Uh, that's all i got ta say okay about about that analogy. Uh i hate to say it. I wan na buy the dip.

I wan na buy the dip so bad. I love the dip. I wan na put the dip in my face and i to kiss it, but i can't when the hedgies are taking all the love away, i'm taking all the fun away, god damn all right: uh, sofi technologies, honestly, brilliant cup! Oh, that's! That's holy crap! Look at sheep, okay, i drew a fibonacci on sheeb like two months ago holy crap. I was not expecting it to go to the zero on the fibonacci.

It has broken the zero on the fibonacci. I mean look at the fibonacci okay, it we bounced off very nicely off the 38.2. We really respected 38 2 minus liquidation candle wicks. We respected the 23 6., we even rubber banded to 23 6., and then we just went to zero.

We are at zero on the sheep fibonacci. Oh my god. Oh okay, let's look at solana. Oh my god! I'm scared! Oh no! Okay! I drew the fibonacci backwards, but it doesn't goddamn matter holy crap.

Oh my god. You cannot tell me that ta doesn't work. Nobody ever ever ever can tell me that ta doesn't work again because it literally it is literally sitting on the line, and i have not pulled this chart up in weeks. Oh my god look at this.

So again i drew the fibonacci backwards. The zero percent is supposed to be down here. The 100 is supposed to be up here, but it doesn't matter um. Oh my god, look at the bounces folks! Look at the bounce here.

The bounce here tentatively, this break was your your red flag right here. This break was definitely your red flag and you were sitting on the frickin bottom holy crap. Now i'm scared. Now now i never want to draw lines again, because when i draw lines low they go to them now i feel responsible god, damn oh disney.

At 1 30.. Oh, look at the dog. Look at the red candle on disney! Oh, oh, that's a netflix sell-off right there! Oh, oh! Oh seven percent! On disney! Oh my gosh such a great company. I love this company they're now charging money for the fast passes.

These people are freaking brilliant; they should have charged money for the fast passes a long time ago, yet their stocks getting reamed uh again, you can have free group therapy. I will be in the free group therapy chat after this live stream. All you have to do is go to metkevin.com chat. If you don't think i am insane and you want to invest with me in the future.

Potentially you could go to met kevin.com cashflow, medcavan.com, cashflow for real estate and stocks in the future. I this is a far too far for our time away, but met kevin.com, cashflow, uh or medkevin.com chat for the free chat. Those are just three things you could throw in: it's not an email list. The metcalf.com slash cashflow they're, literally i've sent zero emails to the people.

Who've signed up for that. It's literally just like. If you want to know, if i do anything in the future, you you would be the first to know: okay, god, damn docusign. Oh, oh docusign had a floor.

Wait, wait hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on. Oh docusign had a floor of 140.. It had a it says it right here december 16th, floor docusign. Well, it was more like a scaffold because it wasn't a proven floor, yet it was a red flag if it would break it.

140.. Okay, that's like here, yeah yeah yeah. We had a few bounces over here, 140.. Okay, what the hell 115! Are? You kidding me etsy, 148 dude.

Why have i been investing since 2020.? Now? In fairness, i bought etsy at 70 bucks when i started but 148 goddamn where's, my cowboy hat. It's not here. Somebody here just went to the seller, a seller to get wine yeah yo. We need to get ross gerber on here.

Can we get ross on here to make us all feel better? Does anybody actually want ross gerber on here to make us feel better i'll i'll wait for the chat, i'll look at one more thing here: uh end phase 126. dude 126.. This is when the company did buybacks. The company bought their own stocks back at 120 at like 125-ish, okay, a lot of yeses, except for one, no on hating, palantir, okay, what the hell all right! Well, i mean i'll, try um this! Just sucks! It's not ringing! Oh there we go never mind.

I can answer: doesn't sound good dude voicemail how rude yo come on live? Oh god, let's try camilo! I love chris um. What's up chris, what up brother dude? You want to come on a live stream, we're all panicking over here and drinking alcohol. You're at your bar, that's perfect! Dude! You could pour us some. Oh, let's go dude! Oh my gosh! Let's talk about it, man i'll! Send you a link right now, all right i'll, send it to you.

One sec see all right. Camilo went short on amazon. Oh dude, that's amazing, uh! I'm just gon na paste the link to a bunch of people taffy. I don't have kathy's phone number kathy, get out of town kathy.

Would i texted jeremy, graham and andre, we'll see if any of them are interested? Oh my gosh tesla's at 9, 43. dude tesla, oh my gosh amazon went down 5.95 today holy smokes. I want to see if that was a call option or what 5.73 on arc. I remember i shorted arc at a hundred dollars and people like kevin you're, so stupid, you're buying it at you're, shorting it at the bottom.

That was at a hundred dollars. It dropped like 35 or 30, something percent from there. Almost thirty percent - oh my god hold on - i got ta. I got ta get my headset on that way.

I could actually hear chris no stop. We are suffering, sir, but we want to hear about your amazon trade after that thing went down like 5.95 today, dude, i'm so upset with myself, because i've been sitting on this data for months. I amazon's my number one long position right has been for a while. Well, that in peloton at one point - and i hedged my position full hedge about six weeks ago, but i should have just put on a full short and that's what i finally did this morning and here's what happened: amazon data just their search data alone right, if, If you look at amazon, prime, if you look at amazon login, you look at amazon echo just on g trends.

Five year chart global kind of you know, uh aggregate october november december put them together. It's the first time in a long time we're seeing a dramatic dip. It gets dramatic dip year over year, just on that search, traffic right and you know, there's all kinds of thesis as to what's happening at amazon in terms of their ecom. But i think that november and the first week or so of december was maybe the first period when people slightly started to shift their purchasing back to brick and mortar stores before wow.

You know omicron hit right, like i think we have a five week. Five to six week period right there that really put a debt in amazon's holiday quarter. We won't know it until february. Third, but that's my thesis and it's also backed up by web stats data.

That shows and again you know, web traffic data is unreliable because it doesn't capture app data and i don't have good app data all right. Dude app data is so hard to get because the subscriptions you pay for suck it used to be cheap about four years ago. It got crazy, expensive and like unless you're a wall street fund. You just can't afford to pay for it because they started charging per site now like like, if you cross right.

So it's like it's! It's really difficult to get unless you're really deep in so here's the thing, but web stats data, including mobile on a 12-month rolling basis, is down for the quarter about nine percent, so we're seeing about nine percent drop in uh web traffic on amazon.com estimated estimated okay. It doesn't include the app so when you combine those things with the thesis it's just, there was too much rent there's way too much risk, especially in this type of a market right. If we even see a slight miss on the third amazon could get rocked. Now now, who knows by the third, we might be down so much in amazon.

It might not matter right, but, like i i'll tell you what i did so i i full hedged my position about. I don't know before you tell me what you did. Can i i want to just ask you: i have this thesis that if we get good earnings on tech companies, the market's going to go meh, but the fed is going to say c good tech earnings, more tightening, so in other words, good news equals bad news And if we get bad earnings, price goes down anyway, so, in other words, good news is bad. Bad news is bad, bad all the way around yeah, because no one really cares about tech, except when it gets start.

If it starts moving the market too much, it gets political and that's when you see the politics come into play right and that's what we've seen for the past few years. At the end of the day, you could only be so short because you know that, ultimately, it's going to come back to politics, i don't care who's in office and i oh, i just feel like no matter what happens. They'll figure out a way to prop the market. At some point, i feel that's the reality we're living in right now.

I don't see it changing anytime soon, but it doesn't mean we're not going to have these short-term fallouts, which is what we're seeing right now right. Um but yeah i i went in, i purchased uh. I have a ton of puts man i i have. I have enough puts to cover my entire equity position, which is like four and a half million in amazon, and then i bought another enough puts to cover like another six million, so i'm the equivalent of about six million short in amazon.

Now, on top of hedging my whole long position and yeah here's here's the stock chart by the way on amazon, we trade it sideways for a very long period of time on amazon between the range of three thousand thirty, four hundred for quite a long period of Time here and then just recently, we've had this fall down to to i've got a line drawn here at about 28 66 looks like we fell to a low of about 2841 today, uh, so okay, but you have shares on this, which options did you go for, And the money out of the money what'd, you do. No, i i i you know me now, i'm not i'm not a kid anymore, so i don't do the out of the money stuff man that that's like the whole thing. That's right, you're not doing the money. All the time man now this is the concern.

This is the new conservative. I got a family, i got a house right. No, i i do um. This is generally i purchased only in the money i bought.

The 3100 puts uh. I had a ton of them. Expiring today and i bought today, so i doubled down - i triple down on them this morning. So today was really weird right, because today i was like normally, i would exit the puts that expired today and then reissue more puts for february.

I think it was like the week of february 3rd right, but i said you know what, let's just have them all roll into the end of today. So i let my old put stay for the day and i've added my new puts. So i had an insane number of puts right on amazon, yeah and so like today. Just honestly my account was even for the day.

Can you believe that across the portfolio? Even so, i know i hate saying this because so many people that i love are also in amazon and they're not protected, and it's not like, i want to see amazon get hit, but if it's going to get hit, i want to see it get hit in The next two weeks, so i can come on that because, because i'm not going to be in that position, post earnings like whatever happens, post earnings, i'm taking off the position, i'm long amazon again whatever it is right. Oh you're, are you closing your put the day after earnings or the day before, earnings, day day after uh? Okay, you know i might trade, i might trade down if you know, as as amazon continues to fall, i don't want to own puts that 400 points in the money. That's not the objective here. So i'll likely trade down i'll always own puts that are about 100 bucks in the money on amazon enough to kind of help me out, like i'm, not going to pay pure premium like the premium.

The premium piece obviously goes down um, but i don't want to own 400 of in the money put. So that's never going to. Are you worried at all that you're going to get like a volatility crush the day after earnings? Well yeah? But you got to remember for this: it's it's mainly it's it's! It's a true! It's a true trade right like the trade-based thesis and data. So, like i'm willing, i'm willing to risk the volatility crush when i actually have a thesis, a narrative with data backing it up, even though the data is like i'm gon na admit, the data is a little inconsis, it's a little shaky right.

I don't have the app data. Also, you got ta, remember aws right. If amazon crushes aws this quarter, that could save everything. We could see a huge pop on amazon, even if the ecom is down if they crush aws.

So, like i don't have good data on aws i used to have good data. I don't have it anymore. You know they're they're, shutting down alexa.com, which was actually a really good tool for for tracking websites and amazon owns alexa.com. So so now we lose that resource for website, analytic data.

Why do you think they're doing that? You know alexa.com was always okay, it's i i don't know what their issues alexa. I just think it's not really that interesting of a business for them similar web is the kind of monster in that space. Uh most most of the funds i know, are using similar web. You got to pay you're gon na have to pay like you know.

Well, over ten thousand dollars a year to get the year-over-year data on it, but it's for me to me it's a no-brainer! I have to have it. I can't live without it. What about apps like who would you use for app analytics, uh, okay, so so uh uh app, annie right, like annie's gon na be your best? I think it always has been. I know there's a few new players in that in that space, but app annie's, probably the strongest in terms of overall data they're, very, very expensive um.

The last time i checked like i said they were charging per uh purse. You know per app to get real. They got the data that you really want, like the year-over-year data, like the actual to see eclipsing data, year-over-year um, it was pretty expensive, so, okay, so you're short amazon. What about uh? What about the market? I mean what what's? What's stopping you from just taking money off the table, while also shorting? Is it just because you're trying to hedge are you? Are you just long-term bullish on the market? What do you think about the feds? No i've taken i've taken.

You know i was 85 percent levered a few months ago. Get this as of this morning. I'm zero percent left zero percent lever, dude, zero, um, okay, so you've been taking off you've taken off almost half your portfolio. I i have a list of stocks on a notepad on my phone and and the caption is re-research and maybe buy back at some point in the future.

There's like 40 on there, like there's 40. like i, this is not a time to be speculating on stuff. You can't keep up with if i don't really have conviction or if it's not like a forever stock. For me, it's not in my portfolio right now, i've been selling for three months straight and it took me three months to get down to zero percent.

It's tough! It's hard it's hard, you know you like you, have conviction, and the the the market environment is all that matters right now, it's a very hard time to be a social art trader like i am because, even if you nail one piece of information on the stock, You know big market moves are going to take you down now. That said, i don't know if you're watching the show man, but we nailed the ritzya uh earnings a couple weeks ago. Do we just that, was our biggest call of the quarter? Um, it's a canadian, a power retailer and really you know not. Many people follow the stock, probably one of the biggest tick tock apparel uh stories of the quarter.

You can't go on tick tock without seeing auritzia being propped up by every other girl, so really proud of that one and held up even in this market. But honestly, there's not enough, there's not a lot that we see where we're like hey. This is such a strong thesis that it will out maneuver in the market right now, so we're just staying out, and you know me man, i'm all in nfts right now, like i'm obsessed, dave's pissed off at me, he won't. Let me do nft shows like we're fighting about like he wants me to do stocks because our audience likes stocks.

I'm like no dude nfts are everything right now to me. So i'm obsessed dude well, so i got ta know uh. I was thinking about buying crypto punk when we met uh recently in in what october or something like that. A lot has changed, yeah, so ethereum.

The last time i checked, which doesn't include the price drop over the last 24 days or sorry 24 hours. The last time i checked, uh ethereum was down about 15 and the crypto punks were down about 40 percent, and i'm wondering how do you stay ahead of the curve on the nfts when it appears that it's very fattish to where right now, everybody wants the mutant Apes uh, you know how do i stay ahead of that kind of curve? It's not a part-time job, i'm putting in seven to eight hours a day, seven days, not five days. Seven days a week, i have guys i just spoke to a guy today, who has seven. He made a his buddy made it a billion and a half in the last two years trading nfts.

He has seven full-time, seven full-time analysts doing nothing but nft research, 24. 7., this is a space to where, if you put in the work, i'm not going to say you can't lose. But if you put in the work there is so much arb alpha in just basically identifying where people are moving like. For example, a few weeks ago, asian market nft started hitting like that.

That's a huge cycle right um, the female nfts, have exploded. The last few weeks we're on top of all this right, i poured into female mfts. Some of them were up four five: six x uh right now, it's all about pde gaming right. So when you talk to me, i was actually really long.

Punks i sold two of my three punks gone, i'm keeping one because i'm kind of attached to it - and you never know but punks - have made all the wrong moves. You have to provide real utility, a real road map that shows people. You have a plan to potentially build a venture scalable business around that project. Now you don't have to execute right now.

You just have to show the plan and the in those projects that are best at painting a picture of a multi-year project to a venture scalable project around that nft. Those are the ones that are winning right. Now you have to have tokens. You have to have pde gaming, okay, you have to have all of these elements and of course you have to have a thriving community.

That is real right. Not just can you clarify p to e gaming? I mean player played in gaming play to earn. Oh, okay. Okay, okay, because i i know as a as a gamer player versus environment and player versus player, but you're saying play to earn like axe infinity style, you know yeah! Well, i wouldn't think i mean yes.

Actually infinity is certainly a play to earn, but it's evolving. So quickly that when i say play to earn, it could be something as simple as just simply having in-game currency, that's owned by the nft project. Uh supporters right it does. It could be as simple as a next generation fortnight that, instead of using whatever bucks that they use in fortnite are using a token that the game was created around that is initially owned by the nft.

You know owners right of that project, so that's kind of what we're seeing ever all these nft projects are developing different types of games, pixel vaults, developing a aaa game. That's going to be available on like an xbox or playstation right. Cool cats is building out a neopets, farmville type of game right, so there's all different types of gaming for different types of audiences. So you need to identify the leader projects in each of these niches that have the strongest communities, the strongest teams that are actually able to put out a solid business plan of what they might be able to achieve two three four years out.

Those are the projects that are flying right now: wow wow wow, that's incredible! Um! Right now, as as we're filming this just the last 10 minutes, we've had a little bit of a btc sell-off here. It looks like uh right now, we've gone from uh. I don't know just probably when you joined about 10 minutes ago, we were sitting around the 38 level, now we're sitting almost at 37.. What what do you take? I mean like how low can we go on some of these coins? When does the pain end? I can't it's very difficult to like you know what i do is i identify information, that's underappreciated that i surface or my community services and i try to connect the dots to investment opportunity.

It's really tough, doing that with like bitcoin and ethereum these days. So it's a totally different type of investment kevin. I don't even try like i have my ethereum. I have my bitcoin um, i'm gon na for lack of better words, probably in it for life.

You know i'm saying like i'll slowly add to it over time, but i'm not the best person to try to time these movements in ethereum and and bitcoin. It's just not my game, like i'm more granular, i'm trying to focus on the stuff where there's meaty information that hasn't been discovered. That i know is about to be discovered right. So it's like that's that's kind of my wheelhouse when it comes to nfts and crypto by the way crypto coins.

I was really big into lit. You know the litcoin. Have you heard of it? How about it yep so like i was. I think one of the top first two or three hundred few hundred people in lit - oh my gosh so like that was that was a narrative that i i wasn't exactly sure if it was a narrative that would evolve into a full meme coin right, like a Doge uh or she, but like i was confident that it was a narrative that was gon na gain some amount of traction based on the actual deliverables that they were gon na bring to market, which is exactly what happened so like lit, was a fun one.

I have a small position in lit now relative to what i did have a couple few weeks ago, but i don't really do the coin stuff that much unless it's related to a project related to a pde game right on that question. What about like an army and and vive uh? You know with like the disney uh patent style, uh nfts, not game related, though so, maybe not your neck of the woods there but yeah. You know it's crazy man. I can only keep up with so much.

I'm familiar with them, i just haven't gone. I haven't done my own deep dives, so, like i don't have the conviction, i don't i'm not fully educated on what the expectation is on those. What are they down to well? This is no no. I was just putting btc back up the last time.

I put it up, we were here and we just got that this is just the minute chart. So it's you know the one i got. You know the one i got caught up in and i i wish i would have brought you in early, because i feel that you would have thrived in it and i'm actually in the process of kind of pseudo-exiting it because, like i have i'm too in it Wolf game like i was like one of the very first in wolfgang. I had like seven figures well over seven figures in wolf game and like it got so crazy that i'm like i don't have time for this man, like i'm gon na i'm gon na i'm slowly kind of pulling some my stuff out of wolf game.

I'm like i'm gon na. Let other people mess with this at this point, because it got to a point where it just kind of took off, but, like you got to get in early, it's all about getting in a day early a week earlier, an hour early, and if that you got To be working it seven days a week because you never it could pop up at 3am right something could pop up yeah. This is incredible. Thank you.

So much for for coming on here. Are you drinking right now because i mean i'll have a shot with you, but if you're at work - let's not i'm not, i'm not, but you got to get to dallas man. You've got to get the dallas to come to chelsea corner dude. This place is so great dude.

First of all, this is our game room. Where is this shout out where it is the name of it right everything? It's a bar. It's a it's! A beautiful, beautiful place right now, big fan right here. By the way, i love you so much that i was well.

I watch you in my shower now that sounds weird, but i have a tv in my shower this. I won't even do anything but check you on the morning openings every day. I love you cheers man, the best part is. He says that he actually has a tv dude and then check out this uh wait.

Wait! Ah door's locked hold on you got ta come to dallas man because look at this patio dude. Oh my gosh, all right!.