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Hey everyone: we kevin here boy, oh boy, i think the black friday sale is going to continue. Okay producer prices paid. These are the producer. Inflation numbers came in a little hotter than expected, mostly because we had a revision from 11.2 percent year over year inflation and producer prices uh from last month, uh well the year the month before that from march right 11.2 got revised up to 11.5.
It's like what the heck uh so you're, telling us the bad news from last month. Wasn't even the full story. It's uh, it's not good uh. We did have a lot of matches to the survey here month.
Over month, 0.5 survey actual 0.5 month over month, excluding food and energy was expected to be 0.7 actually came in at 0.4. That's actually kind of good news. Uh ppi, excluding food energy trade month over month, met expectations. The year over year came in a little hotter than expected for uh, both the headline and excluding food and energy, but look here's the thing that we've got to remember about this freaking market, and this is what's pissing me off - is that even if we get neutral News - and this is what we saw with cpi yesterday - okay - and this - i really want you to internalize.
If it's anything you take away from this video, it's not that michael saylor's complaining and justifying getting margin called it's not that tether just had its worst uh. You know price drop, which remember it's a stable coin since uh since the first month that existed in 2016, which is now creating fears that what if tether, d-pegs and basically ruins the entire crypto market. But that's just that's just fun man, that's just fun, although fud's different from fake news, because that d-peg kind of did start a little bit this morning, but anyway, which actually led the founder of uh cardano, which oh yeah, don't don't talk to me about that one Man, my arms are feeling worked out with those bags, but anyway, charles hoskins on twitter, he's like it to tether yeah. Obviously, a reference back to uh uh uh, which uh you know julius caesar, getting stabbed in the back right anyway, uh.
So so those those aren't. The things that you want to take away, it's also not uh a takeaway that uh. You know you could stand out here by this pool, and you know i don't know i guess you could have blonde girls come running by uh. It's not that either uh, and it's also not that uh, that we've got a coupon code expiring now in four days, for the programs building your long term well, specifically folks get into real estate.
Okay, like get ready, start getting educated for real estate right. We already know this, so no it's none of that. What it is is that write this down. Okay, you should have like a post-it note on your computer screen neutral or bad news means stocks go down a lot.
So if you like meet expectations or you, you miss expectations on earnings or these reports. Big drops, if you beat expectations, still a drop but less so. In other words, this is a no reward market. I would write that down no reward market. I'd have a post-it note on my computer. If i was in front of it right now: no reward market and really to me no reward markets. There's one huge thing that i love about: no reward markets because there's, quite frankly, not much to love about no reward markets, but quite frankly, it's that you can really get some good buy prices going, which i love that now i want to talk to you about. One more thing - and i think this is quite important and it has to do with trade desk and that earnings call from yesterday.
It was so juicy. I really like that trade desk earnings call - and i didn't like a lot of the earnings - calls that i looked at, but listen to this okay, so trade desk, i'm just going to give you a little bit of the insight here. So trade desk spent a lot of time talking about how you know, they're trying to create new tracking id models, uid2, which is something that they're creating to be able to track people, and i was concerned because we know that of iphone users. As of november of last year, only like 30 percent of people actually opt into tracking, and so i was concerned by that, i'm like damn it.
You know if they can't track most people. How are they going to get the data they want? On top of that, there are these rumors that maybe netflix might end up using somebody like trade desk to implement ads right some kind of advertising strategy on netflix to maybe have like a freemium version that they then run ads in and then i'm like. Well. What's to stop netflix from just pulling a youtube, because trade desk can't advertise on youtube right because youtube has their own ad purchasing and selling system.
So i had these concerns with trade desk, and now i go through the earnings call, and there is this key part where they mentioned. You really only need about 10 of users to be logged in in order to model the rest of your user base on that and be able to sell ads with substantially higher accuracy. Now i don't i i'm still. Maybe somebody in the comments can help me out with that a little bit, because what what does 10 percent of people have to do with the other ninety percent? My guess is that they can see how ten percent of people behave, who are logged in understand their demographic okay.
So these are, let's just say: 28 year old dudes, because they're logged in we have their birthday and they keep clicking on pornhub or i shouldn't say that on youtube, whatever they keep clicking on something uh. And then you have these ninety percent of people. Let's just say who are mystery? People and it's like they keep clicking on. You know ph right, uh and it's like.
Maybe those are also 20 year old, guys right. So so i i'm guessing. That's the kind of modeling that they're looking at and that's really really cool in addition to that uh. They kind of touched on the netflix thing, and i thought that was really interesting, because i wrote down in the notes i'm like well, why doesn't netflix just make their own ad buying system right? Well, the ceo read hastings because then, of course, we jumped over to the netflix earnings call and in the netflix earnings call. What did we hear reid hastings said the following quote: we can be a straight publisher and have other people do all the fancy ad matching and integrate all the data about people. So we can stay out of that and really be focused on our members at netflix. Okay translated, it sounds to me like there could be the potential of a netflix partnership with trade desk, which would be huge now, i'm not super jumping up and down about the idea of like yellowing in heavy on trade desk right now, specifically because uh well, i've Well, okay, specifically because i'm concerned that over the next you know six months here, two quarters if people begin to think we're in a recession, contracts which have actually been holding up for trade discs for trade desk are going to start getting revised down, see trade desk. Actually gave guidance that was pretty decent uh.
Their numbers were great, but the problem is, their guidance was based on uh. You know activity from april, and that is like okay. Well, we have all these contracts that were created in q1 and and being fulfilled in april. Well, what happens when, like you know, mid-may end of may early june comes around and it's time to start that discussion about your q3 ad spend and companies start going yeah.
You know what we uh. We think we're going into a recession, we're gon na start pulling back some of our ad spend well crap, then you've got massive problems, uh and so you're going to have some big misses there. Of course, you know you could get propped up temporarily or longer term by the whole netflix idea, but i think it's going to be a while before netflix really announces something like that could be within the next year, though, because they already are talking about it. So i mean that's just pure speculation.
I have no idea when they would actually announce something like that, but that was pretty cool about trade desk. So i liked seeing that and yeah i just have to say: like uh trade desk, good earnings call uh sofi uh. They spent a lot of time in their earnings, call talking about how uh wonderful it is that they're so diversified, and i thought about that. I'm like okay, that's great! You guys do mortgages.
You do etfs! You do financial advice. You do all these different things. Why are you spending so much time trying to tell everyone how diversified you are, and part of me was like? Is that? Because you know the numbers are coming in bad for certain sectors. Right, like one of the important things about earnings calls to remember, is their sales people.
They, you know, sometimes what they don't say is just as important as what they do say like when tim cook, dodged the question of how's demand doing three times three dodges. Like hats off to the analyst who tried three freaking times in a row, what a badass anyway uh then uh! Okay, look! I haven't done my review video yet but matterport sent me the little axis, matterport scanning motor thing for your phone and they're bragging about this motor in their earnings, call about how great it is and how it's faster and it's easier dude compared to the big pro Camera, which i realize this is like 70 dollars versus like twenty five hundred dollars or whatever they sell the damn thing. For now it sucks like it takes like three times as long. It's kind of annoying the quality isn't as good, which i wouldn't expect. The quality would be as good, but some of the things that they did in terms of like how you have to adjust it three times, rather than the motor doing that automatically. That drives me freaking nuts, so they're like little things where i'm like. Really you guys are bragging about this, but it's not even that good of a product. I just got to do my full product review, maybe one of these days i'll, do that when i get back from florida and then italy, but anyway, these are just some of my thoughts from some of the earnings that i read and some of the other information.
Now let me see, i think i had a little bit well. There was a little bit more that i looked at. Oh sun power was absolutely going ape. Okay, sun power.
Uh is like we are seeing more demand than we've ever seen before, and that is going through april, so solar industry, remember, enphase, gave really good guidance too they're, like we don't think this is like a pull forward of demand. We just think this is straight up. Like dope, uh like this is awesome yelp, i thought was really interesting because they see a lot about consumers and this was an interesting line. They said the opportunity for advertisers to reach high intent, customers on on their platform, who come in more than 50 of the time with households with over a hundred thousand dollars is sort of the goal that we're trying to pitch to advertisers, and i thought that was Really interesting because they're talking this was in the same paragraph about how they're talking about the challenging macro environment - and i'm like this is what we've been talking about.
People in this environment want to sell stuff to richer people. That is well, i mean i don't want to say rich, but people who have more money people making over a hundred thousand dollars a year. That's where the attendees are right now and that's kind of where you want to position yourself in terms of investments. I believe as well now, at the same time as ceo uh, the ceo of coinbase, brian armstrong, has lost 83 percent of his net worth and he kind of you know went on a rampage on twitter about how uh you know they had this required sec disclosure. I'm like okay, let me see this sec requirement, your bulletin 121 standard accounting, bulletin 121.. I read the bulletin and i'm like wait a minute. What are you talking about? Like the sec is basically saying like hey, we recommend you make a disclosure, after like the first earnings report, that you have after june 15th, and so you guys rushed this in may during a crypto crash to somewhat imply that hey, if we're in bankruptcy, you guys Have a lower priority than lien holders which they're users right? This has led a lot of people be like that's it i'm withdrawing money from coinbase and i'm not saying that you should, and i don't really think it's that big of an issue. I just think it was really poor communication really poor timing by coinbase.
The ceo in the earnings call mentioned they've, never been this bullish on the company, i'm like okay, at the same time as your cash flow, went from positive 771 mil to negative. This is above and beyond their stock based compensation, which was somewhere around 400 mil their revenue fell, 23, their technology and development costs rose 3x, their marketing spend nearly doubled and their stock lost 24 in q1 and 78 year-to-date. So i i don't know i mean that. Doesn't sound bullish but okay now one thing that i did think was interesting is first of all i do think they're decently capitalized.
So i'm not like terribly worried about like capitalization risks, although you never know. I also also think it's interesting they've got like 300 investments into other companies like openc and so on, and they noticed that they haven't actually seen a lot of fee compression which, with the competition from ftx that we have these days, i'm actually surprised by that which Of course, if you have not gone to ftx yet to sign up and get free crypto every time you trade over ten dollars, make sure you go to medken.com ftx check them out in the link down below and check out the amazing trading of you products. They have as well they've got amazing partnerships as well and their ceo, san francisco dude total badass, total batty, but anyway brian armstrong at coinbase. Listen to this okay.
He thinks that crypto can represent 15 of gdp of global gdp. I'm like dude you're smoking crack! That's 12.7 trillion dollars per year of crypto based uh revenue, no way well the crypto economy right. Well, i guess that would be. You know: good gdps goods and services right, so yeah, crypto economy, 15 of global gdp.
Eventually they didn't give a time frame. Oh no! They did 20 years from now. I don't know man that sounds wild anyway, so these are just some things that i was reading on the plane yesterday and some thoughts that i have about the market. Look, it's a crappy market.
It's not a market where i'm like. Oh, that's, it sell everything if i'm just like every day, i look, i'm like i'm gon na add a little bit add a little bit out a little bit, i'm trying at least so i'm running out of money over here, though, which reminds me check out the Programs, i'm building your wealth link down below because together we have to build as much wealth as we can and get prepared for that real estate dump and it's coming bye. Folks.
so this dude expects a real estate dump and he expects the nasdaq to this at this level. lmao. again in 2019 the nasdaq fell to 6700 just because of a tighting policy now we have a war, china lock downs, massive inflation world wide and we are near the bottom lol.
Should of waited kevin, you were right the first time you let the trolls get to you.
If 10% of the users are a random sample they can use that as an estimate for the entire population. Similar to polling. If you select a truly random sample, a small group can give you a fairly accurate prediction.
Yooo you’re at Ben Mallahs house in Florida!!!! I love his channel, can’t wait to watch y’all. He hinted at you the other week coming on!
How many "For Sale" signs do you see in Ben's neighborhood, Kevin?
I thought the microphone was fake until today. lol
The monetary system in the West is a complete scam to make you a debt slave & for 99% of people to own nothing. Its used to buy governments & define cultures. When you control the currency you control everything. It takes a special kind of people to never be satisfied with the wealth & equity they have. To wake up every day wanting more & more control & not wanting anyone else to have anything unless they are willing to be a puppet & promote there agenda.
F tradedesk! Wtf is happening with tesla stock going down 8% every day…..
Kevin I was thinking about consumers realizing they have to start saving after those summer vacations… Could that possibly lead to lower inflation through reduced aggregated demand?
At this rate, Netflix will be the same price as your typical TV provider. Corporate profits are getting ridiculous.
Kevin you should do an open mic and see how it goes 😂
oh snap are you at Ben Mallah's mansion?
I see Ben Malla house. Next video going to be Good one!
Heard Kevin and Cathy Wood on NPR this morning
Did you take your coffee in a syringe this morning? Jkjk…great energy today bro. Good insights!
I recognize Ben Mallah's house when I see it
Is it possible that some companies like netflix, tesla, rivian,coinbase, robinhood actually will not make it through this onslaught?
I’m starting to think this was all done intentionally…🤔
There ain’t no real estate dump bro, trust me.
The best part of this video Kevin is the girl's by the beach call your attention lol🤣👍 great video keep the good work
Whenever you take a vacation , the markets crash. I know to plan better next time!
Why dont netflix add a gaming section? Like a twitch style streaming
It’s the unwinding,,,,why is everyone so shocked,,,party’s over
Kevin are you at Ben Mallah's house? LOL I love his videos and the background looks very familiar.
That's Ben Mallah's house in Clearwater, Tampa