Hey everyone we kevin here, okay, we got ta talk about a disastrous shift, that's happening in the market and it's something that we really need to be aware of, and look i get. This is like oh kevin. What is this like? You, coming out with the fud on the day, the dow's flat and the nasdaq's up 1.4 1.5 percent. Oh you're, just gon na give us the bad news again.

Look no! This is this is important because, in my opinion, i always like to be very clear about my intentions and my expectations for the market, because i make predictions and often i'm right, then then sometimes i'm just gloriously wrong, but your goal is not to blindly copy me Or take financial advice from me because i don't give that your goal is to maybe take it, what i'm saying and then look and go hmm. This is something i need to pay attention to, because i believe that's why you come to this channel and subscribe to this channel. Am i perfect? No, but again hey. I try my best so uh, here's here's some of the things that i'm seeing right now.

First, we we got to talk about a little quick note about real estate uh. I think we're starting to see an early shift in real estate. It's too soon for the data to tell. But if you are a real estate agent - and you can send me data - that is ideally what i'm looking for is how many houses were on the market in february, how many houses sold in february and what were the median home prices for them.

Those three things for feb 1 to feb 28 and then do the same thing march 1 to march 28th. That's the kind of data i want to be able to compare these two months. Okay, if you could send that to me kevin me kevin.com! It's a big deal. Why is this a big deal potentially, though, for stocks well, you've got to keep this in mind.

What happens when real estate values go down? Real estate values go down people's feeling of wealth, which has been bloated over the past 10 years, because real estate prices can't go down. I mean that'd, be crazy, right, real estate prices. What what real estate prices can go down and get out of town you crazy? They can and they will and here's the thing real estate prices go down. It's not just real estate.

What do real estate prices affect home depot? Lowe's, solar right, anything related to the home, gets hurt, lending gets hurt, but what else gets hurt? People spend less money on stuff like shopify and etsy because they have less discretionary money so that hurts etsy pinterest shopify and when shopify and etsy get hurt, sometimes the buy now pay later and the credit card processing companies also get hurt. Now, there's an argument that maybe buy now pay later could do better because hey if we go into a recession, then people might need access to looser credit right or they just don't, spend money on, buy now, pay later related things like online transactions and then the Test is no good anyway, because, right now it seems like people are spending money on fun, they're spending money going to disney parks and islands of adventure in florida, universal studios. Whatever hollywood florida doesn't matter, people are spending money on cruises. Actually, look at the search transfer cruises they're incredible right now.

People are spending money at restaurants and bars and concerts because we still have the feeling that oh, the party's still going, but the party's starting to thin out a little bit the stock market's already been hit. Pretty hard, i'm not expecting that we're going to go back to those feb, i'm sorry, the march 14th lows, but this is not a time to be on margin. This is not a time to be super super high risk, and i understand look if you want to make you know small bets within your portfolio on yolos and stuff like that fine, but consider some of this other stuff. That's going on.

First of all, we've got a selective movement in small caps. I'm sorry in in the large caps that is you've got companies like apple microsoft, uh tesla doing well, but you've got disney, that's being left behind. I do actually think that could set up for a glorious q1 for disney, because, quite frankly, the parks are what carry disney, especially after the debt they acquired after c21, fox that acquisition and the spending they do on disney plus the parks carry them. The parks are going to kill it here in q1.

In my opinion, uh for for disney could be wrong about that, but you see the other large cap caps not necessarily doing as well with some of the apple and tesla of the likes like, for example, adobe adobe guide. Slow comes, you know. Obviously, it's been trending down large caps overall, though doing quite well in fact this morning, in our course member live stream, and afterwards i posted quite a few pictures that that show some really weird correlations that are happening with rising yields and i'm just going to give A bottom line here, if you're, really interested in those details, you can check out my programs on building your wealth. In fact, today, only we are doing uh the opportunity for you to use the payment plan to join the courses.

I usually don't like doing payment plans, but we've activated these payment plans. I think they were accidentally up for like an hour on friday, but i didn't mention anything because we were testing it uh, but the payments plan. The payment plans are now active for the courses on building your wealth. So if you wanted a payment plan and you wanted to spread your payment over five six seven months and you want it to be in uh - and you want to see my trades and the hedging that i'm doing or whatever or these images i'm talking about check Out stocks and psychology money use that coupon code linked down below.

We extended it just for today to use this payment plan option for folks who wanted a payment plan. We got so many emails for people saying we want to use the coupon we want to get in with the payment plan and boom here it is, it's only going to be up today and we're closing out the payment plan so uh, okay. Now this is critical. As well is, is we got to look at okay? Well, these these particular charts.

Let me finish the thought on those particular charts, so the charts are telling us that small caps and mid caps are having problems right now and that's not good. Smalls and mids have a terrible trend right now, and only selective large caps are doing well again, like tesla the nasdaq over overall, the russell's lagging, and this is all as the 10 years going up, which is while the 10 years going up. But bitcoin tesla and selective large caps are doing quite well, while the mids and the smalls are lagging substantially behind these on a relative basis. These are some of the charts.

These are some conclusions from the charts that we were looking at, and this is a concern because sure those could u-turn, but at least for the time being, the trend is smalls and mids are going to keep getting stepped on and if you've got smalls and mids. In consumer discretionaries and or real estate - and we potentially have a slowdown in real estate, which leads to not only a slowdown in real estate related stocks, but a slowdown in consumer discretionary stocks. You got issues here: okay, like i get the whole like, buy and hold. I'm looking 15 years out like great.

If that's you, you want to buy the indices, you want to buy a few choice. Stocks buy and hold forever great, but i'm going to tell you what i'm seeing in the market and and then it's up to you what you want to do right. I think for the vast majority of people buy and huddle makes sense, especially if you have a diversified portfolio and most of it in index funds and you're. Looking for an opportunity to buy houses, i think you're going to get one here pretty soon we'll see, but in terms of trades, i'm excited about a glorious q1 for dis, but i'm not so excited about the consumer discretionary trend, especially what we're seeing with housing and How that's going to impact these other stocks, but then i get people are like kevin, it's a rising interest rate environment.

Why don't we get into the banks? Maybe well here's the problem with banks? Guess what what happened? In 2021, we had a banner year for ipos. The banks together had 9.8 billion dollars in ipo revenue. How many freaking, spax and ipos are happening now, not many. Why well look around because the market's a lot tougher right now to ipo anything in right now, you've got uh five billion dollars of ipo and spac revenue in 2020, 2.1 in 2019 and 1.95 in 2018..

I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to like the 2018 or prior levels of ipo revenue, which is going to be a terrible comp for cut for banks on top of that, as interest rates go up, lending and loan interest is going to plummet. Car loans, housing loans, it's all gon na plug, it's not good uh. So this is one of the reasons why you hear like these institutions that are like oh yeah. When rates go up, we go into the banks, i'm like! No, you don't get it.

Do you like that's a bad idea right now, but whatever everybody's allowed to make their own trades uh so home, building lending worried about that and i'm worried that once we get potentially more real estate, fear that's going to start stripping some of our consumer discretionary spending, Which is going to be good for the hot air balloon of inflation? See i've actually been just this morning. I started with course members. I was making a reference to how inflation is really like a hot air balloon and so a hot air balloon of inflation that we that jerome powell first told us was transitory. Was that last summer it's okay, we're printing money, we're doing all the stimulus the summer before and and the beginning of 2021 uh.

All the stimulus is in the economy, we're still stimulating through late 2021 right, it's crazy with the unemployment pay and then the child tax credit. I mean insane amounts of stimulus and we still got some of that coming in the form of a child tax credit. This tax filing season is just not so much money printing, it's insane, but jerome powell believed that inflation was going to be transitory and that inflation would start inflecting down in q3 and q4 of 2021. But what ended up happening? Well, the hot air balloon was starting starting to rotate down.

Inflation was like okay, yeah, we're relaxing, you know, inflation went up and then the balloons kind of like okay, we're kind of like coasting down. That's that was the summer of 2021. Then delta hits screws up. The supply chains, what happens when delta hits? It's almost like somebody opened up that valve on the hot air, balloon pulled the string whatever, and it would just push that inflation right back up.

Then what happened? Okay, the hot air balloon starts, chilling out. Inflation expectations come down. Oh now we got war, so i don't think in the long run. J-Pow is necessarily wrong that inflation will be transitory.

The problem is, we literally, like somebody keeps getting on this freaking hot air, balloon and yanking on that joint, a chain yoinking on that chain, going nope, you think, inflation's coming. You think this hot air balloon is coming down. It's terrible! So it's like eventually the hot air balloon will come down, but right now we're suffering because some idiots up there in hot air balloon going. It's terrible, uh it, and so you know i i do think like commodities.

For me, they're they're no touch at some of these levels that we're at but here's here's sort of a big big big wrap up bottom line on all of this. There is a flight to safety in select mega and big caps. Small caps mid caps lagging big. Maybe it's a buy opportunity or next time the market rotates down and large caps go down.

These guys goes down, go down even more so be careful, see what you think if we do get a reduction in real estate prices that is going to smack consumer discretionary, but it could also help bring that hot air balloon down as we crush aggregate demand right. So so many different things at play here my moves. Well, every single move i make obviously in the courses check out that payment plan - that's active for today, only it's march 28th, but the really big thing for me is patience. I'm gon na trim a little bit out of my consumer discretionaries, i'm going to trim a little bit out of my smalls and mids, and i'm going to be careful i'm carefully watching the real estate market.

I've been transparent about my plans for selling real estate and i'm, let's just put it this way - i'm noticing a slow down i'll make another uh larger, update video, but i'm noticing a change already, and this is what i saw coming at the end of january and And it's already here, so that's going to hurt again lending consumer discretionary. So that's why i want to minimize my exposure to those maybe consider the staples, consider the selective, large caps but other than that patience. If you want a yolo, that's not part of a large portfolio but of course have at it and congratulations to those of you in amc and newegg. Alright, folks, thanks so much we'll see in the next one! And yes, i still hot on my mcshares thanks goodbye.